Ben Macintyre
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For those who like their irony raw and bloody, I recommend The Herald, the state-run newspaper mouthpiece of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s brutal, ageing autocrat. Earlier this week The Herald declared: “The state has been lenient with Tsvangirai,” referring to Morgan Tsvangirai, the Zimbabwean opposition leader. “Why should Tsvangirai be treated with kid gloves?” Working himself into a righteous lather, the editorial writer gave warning that if Tsvangirai continued his campaign of defiance it would “result in misery for himself and his family and those among his supporters who are prepared to follow this political corpse into the grave”. Here was a violent threat, disguised as journalism.
On the day that article was published, Tsvangirai and opposition colleagues (who had tried to attend a banned prayer rally) were already being methodically beaten and tortured by Mugabe’s thugs in a police station south of Harare.
All tyrannies have a tipping point, a moment when the power of the dictator crumbles and he reads the writing on the wall, finally hearing the voice that tells him: “Thou art weighed in the balance and found wanting.” Usually, that point is marked by a symbol, an image, an event that seems to capture the weakness and barbarity of the despot: the destruction by sledgehammer of the Berlin Wall; the raising of the Soviet flag over the Reichstag in 1945. In Iraq, the moment came with the toppling of Saddam’s statue, leaving two vast and trunkless legs, as hollow as the regime itself. For Nicolai Ceaucescu, nemesis came as he gazed over a balcony to address the crowd and heard, not the regimented chants of cowed subjects, but the susurration of revolt and mockery: his look of angry bewilderment was his own death warrant.
For Mugabe, the symbolic image that marks the end may be the photograph of Tsvangirai, emerging from police captivity, head gashed and face swollen, and his wrist broken. Violent suppression of dissent is routine in Mugabe’s Zimbabwe. What makes this incident special is the sheer incompetence with which it was inflicted. This was meant to be another obvious warning to Mugabe’s enemies; instead, it has surely emboldened them.
When Tsvangirai and his bruised and broken colleagues were brought to court, the judge took one look at their injuries and dispatched them to hospital. Charges, if there ever were any, appear to have been dropped, and any pretence of a genuine legal process has gone. This was not the cool, cruel misuse of state power to sustain a dictatorship, but a vicious and panicky response by a brittle and nervous tyrant.
Adding to the chaos, the regime has sought to suppress the truth about what happened to Tsvangirai, but with only partial success. One newspaper has dared to publish a photograph of the mauled opposition leader, but everyone in Zimbabwe knows the reality of what was done to him.
Totalitarian regimes rely on artificial control, the consistent projection of omniscience, strength and permanence: the stoking of fear, underpinned by lies and fake grandeur. The secure dictator exudes calm and decisive menace. Last week’s events, by contrast, were messy, disorganised and self-defeating. Mugabe cannot kill or even silence Tsvangirai, but only hurt him. “We must make him cry,” his torturers allegedly shouted as they beat him. These are the actions of a regime spiralling out of control.
The fall of Mugabe has been prophesied repeatedly over the past seven years as Zimbabwe has descended into dystopia, a nightmare of armed gangs, government corruption, famine and chaos passionately evoked by Peter Godwin in his new memoir When a Crocodile Eats the Sun. No peacetime economy has ever disintegrated so fast. The number of Zimbabwean dollars needed to buy a single brick today would have purchased a three-bedroom house with a swimming pool in 1990.
Yet demographic and economic disaster alone will not remove Mugabe. Indeed, the 83-year-old crocodile is manoeuvring to extend his rule to 2010 and beyond. No amount of condemnation from the international community will budge him, particularly while South Africa, disgracefully, declines to exert its full influence on this repellent regime.
Mugabe will only go if he hears, for himself, the whisper of rebellion, as Ceausescu heard it on the balcony in Bucharest, that indefinable sound promising that tomorrow will be different from today. The signs are building: Mugabe’s sometime allies are jockeying for position, anger is spreading among underpaid police and troops and, as hunger bites, the protests are growing more violent.
On Wednesday Mugabe went to visit his ailing sister Sabina in hospital. This was the same clinic where Tsvangirai was being treated for his multiple injuries. In another moment of hefty symbolism, Zimbabwe’s President chose not to see the victim of his own brutality. But Mugabe’s freedom to choose what he wishes to see in the country he has wrecked is steadily narrowing.
Instead of the writing on the wall, Mugabe can still read the fantasy adulation in The Herald, which recently ran a five-part series extolling his “legacy” as “a source of inspiration to millions of Zimbabweans”. He can ignore the groundswell of fury and hear only the voice of his own self-deception.
But Mugabe is a tyrant, not a fool. He can try to prevent his people from witnessing what he has done to his opponents, but he has seen it himself. Mugabe knows that when he sees the photograph of Tsvangirai, bruised, battered and half-blinded, he is looking not at a vanquished enemy, but staring defeat in the face.

Ben Macintyre is Writer at Large for The Times and contributes a regular Friday column. His earlier roles at The Times include being editor of the Weekend Review, parliamentary sketchwriter and bureau chief in Washington and Paris. He has also published a number of historical non-fiction books
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Mugabe is, I have said before, nothing more, nor less than the worlds number one Mugabeist - he believes, principally in staying in power. OK so in that sense he's not much different from politicians all over the world.
Leaving asside the Bush War ("liberation struggle" or "terrorist war"...) for the moment, it does not excuse the way in which the "Super ZIPRA" cadres (sponsored as they were by South Africa) were suppressed in Matabeleland by 5th Brigade "police" unit - you do not fight insurgency by forceing civilians into huts and firing anti-tank rockets into them. That was 1983, and a racially motivated assualt by the government the main minority in the population - why? Because Mugabe's powerbase is amongst the Shona majority not the Ndebele.
Mugabe forced a racist and illegitimate regime out of office and existance. Good. That he did so with terrorism was not good - that he continues to rule through it necessitates his removal and requires the condemnation of his peers!
Guy, Somerset, UK
The reason for the ANC/Mbeki inactivity on Zimbabwe is quite simply that it is a convenient "test-market" for their own policies.
Mbek has sat back, cynically watching to see what happens when an African government murders whites, commits serious genocide against a minority tribe (theMatebele), openly steals private property and stifles human rights.
Mbeki now knows that he too can get clean away wih it - in fact the South African land grabs are already starting!
And the Zulus are increasingly dissatisfied.
Government departments and the social fabric of society are collapsing.
The judiciary is under threat.
Mbeki is seeking another term.
Watch this space!!!
Dennis, Johannesburg, South Africa.
i amjust shocked by sks i have some racist remarks i hv read here. That is the kind of talk that hardens people like Mugabe and we all end up as losers!!!
jambe, Harare,
The reason that Britain is making so much noise is because WHITE farmers are the victims of Zimbabwe's "land reform." Things like these happened before in Zimbabwe and are happening in Uganda, Pakistan, etc but we see no crocodile tears...
African leadrs are refusing to support Britain on this because they know the truth: it is a fight between Mugabe and Britain over confiscation of land brutally acquired by white farmers.
The economy is collapsing not because Mugabe has suddly forgotten how to manage the economy but because of economic blockade and sanctions imposed by Britan (with the help of the USA, Australia, etc).
Moreover, the MDC is an organization sponsored by Britain and the white farmers. Therefore, they have little support outside the major cities and cannot win a free and fair nationwide election.
Why so much pressure on South Africa to deal with Mugabe? They know it is a Britain-Mugabe fight, so why should they intervene?
Vincent, Moscow, Russia
When illiterate, primitive, atavistic individuals get the vote in a country where such people are in the majority, it is criminally stupid to insist on simple democracy. That is what the British and the West insisted upon in Rhodesia and what we are now seeing is the inevitable result. I wish Harold Macmillan, Harold Wilson and the rest were still alive. It would be interesting to hear what they think now.
Keith Bryer, Cape Town, South Africa
Robert Mugabe inherited a jewel in Africa when Zimbabwe received independence in 1980. It was quite rightly called the breadbasket to the rest of the continent. He and his cronies have systematically destroyed the insfrastucture over the years and have enriched themselves to a sickenly level to such an extent that the country can no longer even feed itself the basics. For Ben McIntyre to say that Mugabe is not a fool is mind boggling in the extreme. Thabo Mbeki's 'quiet diplomacy' policy is also a dismal failure and he and the South African government need to ackowledge this and start becoming more active and vocal in condemming this idiot to the north of us.
Brian, Sandton, South Africa
There is no justification whatsoever on what is happening in Zimbabwe. No one, including the defenders (african leaders as well) can stand up in front of everyone and say that Mugabe had done his country and Africa proud.
The opposite is quiet true. It simply defies logic to recall that African states stood up for colonialism and now ignores, claims to be powerless to do something about one individual who continues to violate human rights everyday.
Seriously, african leaders are not serious. Thabo Mbeki must be ashmed of himself.
One day, Zimbabwe will be free from Mugabe. But African leaders will be hounded for ever by the thoughts of letting the poor and powerless die whilst it was in their power to help them.
Dennis, London, UK
Whilst I hate to say it alongside Mugabe other Africans from other nations must be blamed for this, the worst economic collapse in modern history. Nations such as South Africa should have used their regional power to reign in Mugabe, instead what did they do, they supported him with loans and reigned in any criticsm they felt like making lest they be seen as being "on the other side" sitting with those western economies who stood ready to help but were pushed aside by Mugabe's posturing and refusal to see the damage his policies were creating. Hopefully two things will happen> Mugabe and his extended family will be impoverished by freezing the millions they have looted and the next leader will be able to galvanise the support Zimbawe has a a nation in the world from the ranks of those countries who wish it all success but have been spurned. Will it ever return to a relatively prosperous state. I for one hope so, but doubt it, such is the manner in which Mugabe has destroyed it.
anthony harrisson, london, england
Hmmm... I'm afraid that Africa has different rules to Europe. Change is seldom for the better.
The next leader will come from Mugabe's inner circle and will owe his succession to the same thugs that keep Bob in power. For Zimbabwe, the future holds the excitement of a bloody coup, a honeymoon for the new leader, and a further descent into a corrupt and brutal dictatorship.
Mike, Salisbury, UK
Gee, no one dares to name the real culprit of Zimbabwe's sorrows, which is socialism. Remove this proven false promise of a better future and Zimbabwe will thrive once again. You can rid the country of it's leaders, but if socialism is kept, no improvement will be made.
Ed, San Diego, USA
"...particularly while South Africa, disgracefully, declines to exert its full influence on this repellent regime."
What would you have South Africa do? They are in the process of rebuilding a country and cannot risk a war against Zimbabwe, which is a reality if they do appose Robert Mugabe. If Zimbabwe had something to offer, such as OIL, I am sure that the Americans and the British would of come to the "rescue" of the Zimbabwian People.
Alas, they're just country that has been raped by the British, and left to sort there own problems out!
L Pillay, London,
With reference to Mr Fraser's comment: Mugabe is not actually from the biggest tribe, his parents were not even from Zimbabwe. On the other hand, those who blame the British for the Colonial period should get a life, you cannot keep on blaming them 40 years after. Lastly, I agree totally that South Africa, which, incidentally, is starting to expropriate large white owned farms, should also be blamed for enabling Mugabe to continue his insane policies by continuing to supply most of Zimbabwe's energy needs.
Ian, Myersville, USA/MD
Until the Zimbabwean people have themselves had enough and stand up against Mugabe then there is a very limited range of actions that can be taken externally, and no liklihood of any of them having an effect.
The idea that all that stops the West invading and making everything right is a lack of oil is just rather boring Anti-West rhetoric. Should we have invaded when white farmers were being beaten and killed and driven off their farms - then I am sure the same armchair pundits would have insisted the West as racist.
In the end, though we must give what support can be given, Zimbabweans must overthrow Mugabe themselves - this is always the way in which a people finally find lasting freedom.
Peter, Maidstone, Kent
Kevin Smith ( West Laffayette, IN USA:
You forgot to mention that Bush is to blame for the common cold, global warming, the Cold War, the French and Indian War, etc...
Really, Ken, Mugabe has been around for so long. He's been terrorizing his people long before Bill Clinton... I think he really it his stride during Carter's Administration. Nevertheless, he and his dead thug friend Joshua Mkomo were already accomplished murderers... Can't really blame Carter either. For a while they were just media darling popular revolutionaries... like Fidel and Che...
But I'm sure you know all this. What do I know. My undergrad specilisation was in African Politics in the early 80's... Mbeke is more to blame than any other head of state. Mugabe is and was a murderous thug who received a pass on scrunity vis-a-vis his race and his marxist credentials. Contrast Mugabe and Mandela. Don't blame bush--before his watch.
Keith, Green Bay, USA/Wisconsin
No oil? No strategic value? No help from anyone else.
phil, sacramento, USA
i blame kevin i think...
but seriously, just bring back rhodesia and its troubles would be over
Jay, lakewood, Ohio, USA
Mr Mugabe: Please take this personally - you are a disgrace to the human race.
Plato, Chexbres, Switzerland
If South Africa had a legitimate government and a man as a president, instead of a cowardly buffoon with a fragile ego, this would not have happened.
Thank you, UN, US, UK for your betrayal of democracy in SA, Rhodesia and Namibia. This is YOUR fault.
Nicko, Cape Town, RSA
who remember when Mugabe took power,it was regarded as a great victory for the blacks against the white.Since then,no one in south africa ever dare to intervene,because of the ANC and the power it builds up for years consider him as the new Fidel of southern africa.Let it be quite clear black african intellectuals share a great responsability in the destiny of their peope.Biafra,rwanda,congo, darfour,thoses are the price of a policy that threatens every one who dare to rise and question third world countries.The point is what's next?to put it straight,who can assure that his successor would do better.And what about south africa when Tabo Mbeki said "aids"you can cure it by eating garlic?How may whites are still there..so long .;a bientot the french flying man
pickwicksre, paris, france
I lived in Kenya in the 90's when Kenyan's were fighting to bring down the tyranny of the Moi regime. This kind of thing was commonplace. The (now) Nobel Peace prize winner, Waangari Mathaai was brutalised by the police for leading a protest, So was Richard Leakey. Timothy Njoya, a presbyterian cleric was bashed in the street in the glare of Television cameras. Opposition leaders were frequently detained without trial (ironically, under laws instituted by the British to supress Africans in the 50's) and subjected to violence if they dared raise their voices. Student Leaders such as Solomon Muruli were assassinated and others tortured. People (black ones) were evicted from their homes and land if they didn't toe the government line. The western world never paid much attention and it didn't get as much column inches. My question is, what is it about Comrade Bob that sees the west reserve it's ire especially for his crimes(i'm not saying he shouldn't be censured for his actions) cont'd
Ian, London, UK
Sudan has oil and the Chinese are getting it, so nothing has been done there. What's the excuse for African countries and the AU not moving against Mugabe?
James, Jacksonville, Illinois U. S.
cont'd
What I'm asking is why is there so much inconsistency in the approach to these issues. surely you realise that it paints the west as hypocritical and tells Africans in other countries who are going through similar tribulations that the West doesn't really care about their plight, or that of the (black) Zimbabweans but is concerned about Zimbabwe for other reasons. As this story plays, Ugandan soldiers recently invaded the High Court, beat up lawyers and judges and re-arrested political opponents of Museveni who had just been granted bail by the courts. That is a serious attack on the rule of law...one arm of government seemingly at war with another, go through this paper, or any other western media and tell me how much column space (or outrage) that has attracted?
You say that the crocodile is facing defeat, the crocodile tears accompanying this moralising are deplorable!
Ian, London, UK
Jeremy and Jim are missing the point - Africa is a continent with a unique set of politics and you cannot simply compare it to other global politics - it shows a lack of comprehension of Africa. The real undisclosed villain of the piece, alluded to here, is Thabo Mbeki. Mbeki has propped up the horrific Mugabe regime through the provision of electricity, refusing to condemn even the most blatant human rights violation, and continued trade with his pariah regime. Mbeki has long had the power to control Mugabe - the blood of many Zimbabweans beaten to death is on his hands as much as Mugabe's. The people of Zimbabwe have long deserved a better leader, and better neighbours.
Neil Anderson, London,
I blame Bush
kevin smith, west lafayette, in / usa
Dear Ben
Thank you for expressing the sentiments so many feel, but have no way to express.
Albert Selzer, Maidenhead, UK
The citizens of Zimbabwe have nothing more to lose in an uprising against this tyrant.
Mau10 , Patchogue, N.Y. U.S.A.
It really is a shame that we allowed it to continue after the first hint of vote rigging.
We owe that country so much.
We ruled it and we bled it, but we did not teach it.
We did not teach it that tribal dictation (as in Iraq) does not work.
We showed them that autocracy works.
Especially when you have all the weapons.
Of course we, morally, should go in...
The only trouble here, is that Iraq had oil...
Jeremy Bell, Martock, England
And as all too often, the rest of the world stands by and does not act.
It should enact sanctions against Mugabe and his fellow monopolists, freeze their assetss, etc.
But the rich and powerful seldom hurt other rich and powerful, because after all it is one big family.
Jim, London, UK
You can be sure that Mugabe has already hand picked his successor,who will be a clone of himself.Anyway people should understand that his is the biggest and most powerful tribe in Zimbabwe,Morgon T and the opposition has no chance ever of winning an election.
AJ Fraser, Paris , France
The end is nigh.....within the closing of the year i see free zimbabweans expressing their opinions without fear of goverment. The ability to open a small kiosk to sell to provide for their families. I hope they reflect on the mugabe zanu PF missrule and dont follow the path of aftocentric leaders. The world is a waiting trading partner, and tourist are waiting for a calm and noncorrupt goverment to stear the ship of zimbabwe clear of the hardships imposed upon it by the captain currently at its wheel. Comercial farms are just that, comercial farms whether owned by blacks or white they must be viable and once they are the suppliers and workers can once again prosper. What zimbabwe needs is property rights, freedom of speech and for now a hand up from its ruined economy.
juha, vancouver, canada
pity there is no oil in zimbabwe, if there had been mugabe would have been gone years ago. on the other hand, certain nations seem to accept vicious, or in some cases, set up dictatorships if theres money to be made.
s baron, leith, tasmania
What irks me most is that for years there were warning signs and cries of warning of Zimbabwe's slide into dictatorship and poverty. In response to which Western liberals cried 'racist' and shut down further discussion. They and their friends in South Africa (also conspicuously silent) carry a measure of responsibility for the current situation.
ian, london,
Is he really a dictator? Have they had no elections in the last 28 years? It may not look pretty to us but this is Zimbabwe's call; they put him in charge and we should stay well out of it.
David, London,
I think I see why Mugabe kicked the British press and the BBC out of the country. On the other hand, it seems to have thus promoted what has to be a correspondingly ill-informed comment. Is it Mugabe who is making the mistakes or the media? It must be flattering, in a way, to be blamed for all the countrys ills, but unrealistic. There is this massive inconsistency inherent in the phrase ailing dictator. It seems to me that Mugabe may be having a tough time from the sources that are keen to exploit such occasions, but he must have a lot of support from somewhere, and if the British put him there, as they did, what has happened to the UK connection? Are we merely seeing a familiar phase in that type of relationship?
Henry Percy, London, UK
The silence by the other leaders of Africa reflects badly on their own values.
Mbeke needs to ask himself how much longer he can allow the shadow of suffering from Zimbabwe to cast itself over South Africa and its government in Pretoria.
Dee, Bournemouth,
I doubt Mugabe is falling. He has dified the odds so many times, I am sure he will cruise out of this mess like many of the messes he has been thru.
Lets look at some of the realities of his legasy in Zimbabwean politics. Mugabe fought the south African (British influenced Aparthied system) to free his nation when his people were suffering Americans were not paying attention, the British were wishing his death. Now that he has been in power for more than any african leader yet, he is elected to power time and again. I think lets say that what he has done to the White farmers is not good, but he pleaded the British to solve the problem for 25-years, thru beaurocracy and systematic politica game they sat on it in court while most poor Zimbabeweans cried. I think the it is unfair for outsiders to criticize him when they refused to carry out their portion of the bargain. So if we have to blame him we should also mention our failures, I think the author of this article was unfair.
James, Detroit, MI
If Mugabe is the embodiment of the forces of darkness in Africa, the corollary - the near sanctified Nelson Mandela - has been achingly, deafeningly silent. Condemnation of his neighbour's abomonations from this international symbol of justice against tyranny would almost certainly set the snowball in motion - but so far, nothing but silence. Dare we hope...?
Malcolm Taylor, Antonne, France
For someone who is 'staring defeat in the face' he looks remarkably sanguine.
Stuart Geoffrey, Zavalla, Tx, USA
Mugabe will die in office as he is afraid of what might happen to him if he were out of it. It has been a terrible legacy of africa that former presidents have been hounded, prosecuted and vilified. If he were given the guarantee of ending his life peacefully, he might be persuaded to leave.
Mugabe is a liberation hero for his people and people tend to be very tolerant of their hero's foibles.
Anil Gayan, Curepipe, Mauritius