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The next ten months may be the most difficult that President Musharraf has faced in his eight turbulent years running Pakistan.
If he needed any more persuasion that he needs to distance himself from religious and conservative parties now and crack down on the militants who lurk behind them, it came from yesterday’s bombs on the fledgeling India-Pakistan express train service. In his attempt to stay in power, as well to revive his quest for a modern Pakistan, he is contemplating the once unthinkable: doing a deal with Benazir Bhutto and her party to keep the fundamentalists at bay.
Yesterday’s attacks show how militancy threatens every flank of Pakistan: Kashmir, the wild Afghan border, and even this tiny thread of a train link, one of the few results of years of stop-start peace talks.
It is a sign that relations between the two nuclear-armed powers are in a comparatively benign phase that yesterday’s attacks provoked equal condemnation of the bombers. In times past, each would have blamed the other.
Both Musharraf and Manmohan Singh, the Indian Prime Minister, have been good for stability. Musharraf, after some prodding by the US, has clamped down on militants crossing into India. He has the more difficult diplomacy, abroad and at home. India is broadly happy with the status quo, and for the “Line of Control” twisting its way through the northwestern Himalayas to calcify into a border. Many in Pakistan (and its army) would regard this outcome as intolerable.
Recent talks have sidestepped the worst issues of the border and the governance of India’s Kashmir province, and salvaged anything else on which the two agree. Hence the bus and train trips that issue forth from these tense summits as fragile symbols of goodwill.
India’s discovery of rapid economic growth has helped in giving Pakistan a lesson in the rewards of stability. So has militancy in Pakistan, reminding Musharraf that he panders to those causes at the risk of more violence. His alarm at militancy and at the rise of the religious parties appears to have jolted him into thinking that his best hope of saving his presidency and his reforms may be to turn to Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party. Talks have been going on for more than a month, in an excited although fitful way.
This is an astonishing direction for Musharraf; it is also, suddenly, almost his only option. He wants two things: to be assured of being reelected as President by Parliament; and to win support for his plans to modernise Pakistan’s education and social practices. The small religious parties and the mainstream, conservative Pakistan Muslim League have blocked his plans to reform the madrassas, or religious schools, one of the key requests of the US and Britain.
Musharraf’s first goal is tricky, given the challenges to his legitimacy. Since he took power in the 1999 coup, he has refused to stand down as head of the army while continuing as president.
Under the current constitution, the president is picked by Parliament. Musharraf could ask this Parliament simply to renominate him — but that would lack the appearance of legitimacy, and the suggestion has provoked derision. Or he could turn to the next Parliament, to be elected late this year — but he has no guarantee that it would pick him. He might try both: get nodded in again by this assembly, and ask for endorsement from the next — but that could still give him an embarrassing rebuff.
Enter Benazir, former prime minister, now living in exile from Pakistan where she faces corruption charges. She is head of one of the two mainstream political parties that is expected to do well in the elections. It embraces a secular, liberal agenda, and if it threw its support behind Musharraf his presidency and his agenda would be secure. It is hard to imagine his accepting her back as Prime Minister. Her nominee would be a less combustible formula, but even that may be too much for him to stomach. Violence and the looming elections have now given Musharraf a stark choice between the militants and the liberals. The US would like him to understand that he does not really have a choice at all.
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Benazir will do a great disservice to the people of Pakistan and to her political legacy if she extends her hand to a military dictator, now in trouble. This arrangement would ensure that military retains its role as the ultimate power broker in politics; it would confer legitimacy on a usurper, and make Benazir an apologist for political role of the army. Also once Musharraf gets elected what could stop him from dismissing the government and create yet another kings party? If justice is not done, and Pakistans military-political leadership refuses to learn any lesson from history then rest assure history is going to repeat itself.
Shakil Bhatti, Beaumont , Texas, USA
Pakistan is a country which faces major problems. These problems can only be addressed by a government of national reconcialiation. This governemnt should include General Musharaf, Benazir Bhutto's PPP, Chaudhry Shujaat's PML(Q), Wali Khan's ANP and anyother political groupings which believe in a federal & democratic Pakistan. A time frame of five years should be sufficient if all the stakeholders are sincere
Salim C Mitha, Coral Gables/Miami, Florida /USA
Only permanent solution to peace between India & Pakistan is independent Kashmir and if India does not realize then it is sad affair and killing of innocent people will carry on. India & Pakistan should take this opprtunity solving the problems of Kashmiri people.
Munna, London, UK.
It baffles me beyond belief that the western powers, particularly the U.S and U.K can't see beyond their nose. It has been obvious to all who cared to see, that it was Musharaf who brought the religious parties into power and then threatened the west that if he goes the extremists will take over. Nothing can be further from the truth. A look at the electoral history of Pakistan will confirm that the religious parties never won more that a handful of seats in the National or provincial assemblies. Musharaf rigged the 2002 election to give them the undeserved political clout and then threatened the west that it is either him or the Mullahs. Bush and Blair wake up before it is too late.
John Douglas, San Diego, U.S.A
I think the question is if there are any political parties in pakistan? The political game players keep changing their motives, principles, values, claims and allegiances however they deem is appropriate for their own pockets. I do not think Musharraf is going to have any problem staying in power as the president or chief of army staff as long as he has america's support and an ample supply of our money sucking corrupt politicians. As for the militancy, not that I am against militancy for various reasons, I think he can keep it curbed for several more years.
Imad Ashfaq, Nashville, USA
Pakistan has suffered enough at the hands of its own army and the so called politicians in the name of religion. If the people are to choose between the two, an overwhelming majority would prefer to have the General in power with the Mullahs out of the picture. I hope any deal that materialises in the near future does not have extremist elements.
Hassan, London, UK
West assures only itselff when it considers Musharaf as a moderate, in fact, our chiefs of Army staff, could use any tactic to occupy the presidential palace. They were never librals nor religious (take Zia as an example). Therefore, if West chooses to make it abundantly clear to our generals that it will only support a democratic government elected by fair election and stick to it, radicalisation will die down much sooner.
One the other hand, if it only gives a lip service to democracy, democracy will never bloom in Pakistan. Pakistani people have many short comings, however their trust in election is deep rooted, you will only have to hold a fair one.
MA Mirza, Slough, UK
The very fact that Musharraf wants to stay on as president at all costs shows that he is not really interested in the future long term interests of Pakistan. His philosophy is "Appres mois, le deluge". Unfortunately this has been the case of all military rulers that Pakistan has had the misfortune to stomach. The mantra of the hour should be, "It is the institutions stupid!" Musharraf staying on sets the wrong precedents and does not help institution building. If he really wanted a stable and prosperous Pakistan he would act according to the constitution instead of flargrantly violating it every day. Come on guy, spare Pakistan!
Nasir Khilji, Alexandria, Virginia, U.S. A.
Musharraf may send Benazir government packing home once he has been elected by the next parliament and got the 'legitimacy'. He is such a treacherous man.
I disagree with one of the commentators that people of Pakistan need Musharraf. The people wouldn't wait for a moment to see his back. He has done incalculable damage to the country after Zia. He has handed over Karachi to an ethnic party whose boss is in so-called asylum in London. The security situation is getting worse by the day.
If Benazir had to enter into a deal then Nawaz sharif must get its due share as well.
khobar, London, UK
Gen Musharaf teaming up with BB is a news that so many in this country view as the only plausible way for liberal Pakistan as this is the need of the hour although this formula may not be ideally damocratic , that is Peoples Party accepting Musharaf as their in-uniform president but it is the only way to flush out right wingers and extremists which are plaguing my country! Benazir should push for a Musharaf without big boots immediatly if possible or working out a 'deal' with him to sideline the role of the fascist army of pakistan for ever as the authorotarian ruke by the Army is an equal threat to the stability of this country as do the extremists, just giving in to every demand of the General can have its own sire consequences!
Nabeel Arshed, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
for the 160 million people in pakistan and the region
its important that Musharaff keeps the top job,
the rest of the crowd i.e benazir, nawaz etc are just
timewasters
abbas, RAWALPINDI,
I certainly agree that Gen. Musharaff is between a number of rocks and multiple hard places. A smart man would know when to call for help. Nixon turned 180 degrees and went to China in 1972, so Gen. Musharraf could conceivably call Benazir Bhutto back. It makes sense in a few weird ways as in someone to share the blame with, an attractive target to steer the bullets towards, she charmed the Taliban into Afghanistan, now she can try to reverse the magic.....I'm sure Benazir will be all over this power sharing sea change being the bear for punishment or patriot that she is. If these two leaders could possibly cooperate for real, they could change Pakistan although it would be very messy and lengthy process. It all depends on whether there is an actual political centre from which to draw enough power to successfully sideline the extremes.
Linda Dial, Calgary,