Bronwen Maddox, World Briefing
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What has gone wrong with Ukraine’s Orange Revolution? The best answer is that it never went right. The latest crisis merely brings to a head the tension between two halves of a country so deeply divided it barely looks like one nation. President Yushchenko was too convenient a hero for Europe and the US after the 2004 revolution, when he wrested power from his rival Viktor Yanukovich, as hundreds of thousands rallied in freezing temperatures in Independence Square to protest against rigged elections. Pockmarked, from dioxin poisoning before the election, a crime that has never been solved, Yushchenko seemed the ideal Ukrainian leader: charismatic, Western-leaning, friend of business entrepreneurs and liberal pundits, bearing the visible scars of a near-fatal attack by the pro-Russian old guard (as it is assumed). A hero for half the country, perhaps. But Ukraine is profoundly split between the Polish-influenced, Catholic, Ukrainian-speaking west and the Russian-leaning, Orthodox, industrial east. A 1994 CIA report musing on the formal split of the country, at a time of economic strain, now looks melodramatic. Optimists argue that the knack of spanning the two cultures is Ukraine’s most valuable possession.
But it has brought deadlock to its politics. When Yanukovych became Prime Minister in March last year, after the election victory of his party, it brought a sharp clash with Yushchenko. This week Yushchenko, in dismissing the current parliament and calling new elections for May 27, is hoping to break the jam by winning a better hand in parliament. Even if the courts deem them legal, and they go ahead, that is unlikely.
The most encouraging point is that both parties are turning to the Constitution and courts in support of their positions. Yanukovych claims Yushchenko acted illegally in dissolving parliament; there will now be a brief pause while the Constitutional Court pronounces.
The second is that the economy is doing well, at least compared with dreadful expectations. Foreign investment has been shaken by the clashes of the past year, and the Government expects growth to fall to 6.5 per cent from 11.5 per cent in 2006, but inflation is under control.
The best hope, for those who want a more European Ukraine, is that the elections deliver Yushchenko a friendlier parliament, and that he patches up his feud with Yuliya Tymoshenko, former prime minister, forming a strong liberal, Western-leaning government. The worst is more deadlock: either because Yanukovich insists on waiting for a constitutional court ruling, which could take months; or because the election produces another parliament without a clear majority.
Of all the ways in which Yushchenko has disappointed Ukrainians, failing to show how courtship of the European Union and Nato would help them tops the list. It is unfortunate that the Orange Revolution came just months before France and the Netherlands voted “no” to the EU Constitution, giving voice to the growing mood against further enlargement. But the EU has given Ukraine reason since then to understand that it is languishing behind Turkey in an unmoving line towards accession.
All the EU can hope to do is help Yushchenko to tug Ukraine a little closer towards the West but if it fails to throw him even a few sops, that will be an expensive mistake.
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I have found that Ukrainians as a people are now dayâs weak minded. I think this is due to the brutal control of Russia and the former Soviet system. Many people do not feel any kind of national identity. They need time to develop an identity, or they will be lost as a people. They have a very old and long history, long before the Kiev-Russ Empire (Nothing to do with Russia). I personally donât think they will make it as a Ukrainian people, and thatâsâ too bad.
Doeski, Minneapolis, USA
The Ukrainian people made their choice in the frigid temps of
Kiev and should be prepared to defend their freedom again as
forces are again ready to take away their freedom.
Our own freedom is continually at risk. Ukrainians have a similar house-divided-against-itself dilemma that our country once had
but the resiliency of the populace continues to tolerate the
Russian pressure that decades of domination created.
The youth of Ukraine want Western life....the older still have the
Russian dreams of government knows best.....Ukraine is rich in natural resources and Russia would like to have it back. It is that simple. The majority would prefer the dollar or the Euro for currency. The EU could well save the country if the process was not so lethargic.
It is a shame that the nation is 50 years behind in many ways.
Ukrainians coming here to live or just to visit are pleased and
not afraid to say so. The Web revealed to them a different
world...The Orange Revolution is still on... Ron
Ron Freeman, Maggie Valley, NC
The West must help Ukraine (re-)establish itself as an autonomous nation and befriend it. Regardless of language, culture, etc., Ukraine is one nation with established boundaries. After decades of being plundered and bullied by the USSR/Russia, forcing Ukraine to turn back east is like sending a recovering child back home to abusive parents.
All you need to do is look at President Yushchenko's face to see what evil Ukraine is up against. Kyiv is as much Ukraine as is Lviw! Like all bullies, Russia -- i.e., Putin -- cannot admit defeat. The world rejects their brutal ways, but Ukraine is in the front lines of that battle. The West should help them in any way we can. This is a more important issue than most in the West realize.
BC Buyer, Minneapolis, USA
The media and the oligarchical Ukrainian parliament sustain the illusion of religious and cultural divide there as Russia versus the West. The real conflict, which will eventually arise, in Ukraine, as elsewhere, is socioeconomic inequality. Less than one percent of Ukrainians control that nation's economy. It is this one percent, regardless of their religion (Catholic, Orthodox, Jew) which have a vested interest in deflecting the true crisis as it manipulates das Volk via the media and parliament to protect its own economic interest.
Mark, Greenville, North Carolina
My view is that the Ukraine would be much better off negotiationg low natural gas rates and an industrialization program with Russia instead of with the western world because, clearly Russia has the greater gas supplies, and the West does not, also Russia has full politicial control over any gas that flows west from there, therefore just from a purely practical standpoint it does not make a whole lot of sense for them to pretend to be eastern Europe when clearly they are more western Russia and when it comes right down to it, a pluralistic society in Russia helping Russia to stay pro western would not be such a bad idea either, therefore since each continent should provide for their own defense I propose that Asia provides for its own defense by defending the Ukraine against western political leaders that try to annex it contrary to sound economic and political sense, with the idea that their ideology is superior that of Mr Putin!
I disagree it is merely different !
JOHN ADAMS WEAVER, utah, utah
I found some offensive words in this article. What author mean when wrote "if it fails to throw him even a few sops, that will be an expensive mistake"? Guys are you still overloaded with the White Man's Burden? Remember: the door to EC was closed to Ukraine. So what do you want to offer for 42 mln. of Ukrainians? Be careful with the words...
Yuri, Odessa, Ukraine
Ukraine is really two countries, and not so different from the circumstances that Ireland endured for so many decades. Though there has not been abject street violence in Kiev the way that Belfast experienced, the Russian culture and the Ukrainian cultures do not welcome each other. It has been said that Russians from the east travel to Lvov with care, and some have been beaten by townspeople in Lvov for visiting the western part of the country.
The internal conflicts might be resolvable, but for the ironclad fact that Pres. Putin will not allow Ukraine to go west. The Russian forces in Ukraine will lobby and push for Ukraine to be largely a Russian hued country; note that in Kiev, most business publications are in the Russian language. Russian is the language of the business class, and is established among the moneyed interests in Ukraine.
At the moment, I do not see the west stepping into the equation. The US might have become involved, but Iraq/Iran is the 600 kilo elephant.
Misha, Chicago, Illinois
How ignorant!
Ukraine can be more europien on its own terms, without need for all "sops" from anyone. Other counties should leave it along, stop giving "sops" to their preferred person and pushing it (based on their best interest, NOT Ukraine's) anywhere, specially to the relationship based on "sops". With the strong industry, imazing people, numerous resourses, it can take the honorable place it deserves in this world.
Irene, Purchase, US
How very typical and arrogant! "Throw him a few sops"! That's what is apparently wrong with the Orange revolution: its leaders do not look after their country. Rather, they look for "a few sops" from the West. And you think that the Ukrainians should gladly accept them (the sops and such leaders alike). I am not a Ukrainian, but if I were, I would be deeply offended.
Oleg, Ontario, Canada
I think the difficulties are increased since the strongest countries in the world decided to interfere in Ukraine. It is correct that the country is split in two halves, but there is no doubt many problems could be solved in better way if nobody had interfered in Ukrainian Home politics.
Alessandro, Rome, Italy
Surely the expensive mistake is the habit of the USA to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries blatantly for its own rather than the target country's population's interests.
Iraq might reflect on this
DM, Eastbourne, UK
The East and the South were for centures united nation with Russia, united in their church. Not many of them want to be a part of Russia now but when generations of their ancestors dripped their blood for common country with Russians, when almost half of population are either Russians or have Russian roots you think they now madly crave for NATO's bases and solders on their land? Then you will be disappointed. As for the West they always pass on from a country to country in the past and they don't know who they really are, what nation they represent. At least in the East they who are Ukrainians by their nationality refuse to regard the westerners as Ukrainians.
I sincerely hope that Ukrainians won't go too far in their clashes. Sorry for my poor English.
Serguei, Rossosh, Russia
A case of unconscious irony: Someone from the United Kingdom ( a country with FOUR teams in the FIFA World Cup hunt) opining that Ukraine ( a country with one football team) would be better off it it splits in half!
If the UK, an aggolomeration of different ethnic nations can endure as a political nation, so, too, can Ukraine-- a country where one ethnic group (Ukrainians) is in the dominant majority in every region, save the Crimea.
No serious political force in Ukraine favors partition. Ukraine has major differences between east and West, but neither region favors nor countenances separation.
Adrian , New York, NY USA
There never was a referendum on division in Czechoslovakia. Division was a product of agreement between Czech and Slovakian goverments even that majority of people were against division.
Peter, Bratislava, Slovakia
Ukraine is a torn country. The west is European, the east is Russian. It is evident that the two sides are becoming increasingly polarised. Ukraine should hold a referendum on division just like Czechoslovakia. Both sides would be much happier, and could choose to reuinfy when they appreciate their common values rather than their differences.
Richard, Preston, UK