Bronwen Maddox: World Briefing
We've made some changes
to The Sunday Times
Iran now claims that it is enriching uranium on an “industrial scale”, but there is not much reason to believe that this is yet true, unless it has in mind a cottage industry.
Of course, that is no reassurance about Iran’s intentions. We should assume that it wants to put itself within easy reach of nuclear weapons, for all its assertions to the contrary — and President Ahmadinejad all but said that on Monday. But the eruption of propaganda from Tehran — including the showy release of the captured British sailors and Marines — does not conceal either the weaknesses of the regime or the signs that sanctions are working. For all the excoriation in Britain of the decision to allow the crew to talk to the media, their accounts will add to the pressure on Iran.
The new phase of Iranian belligerence began three weeks ago when the United Nations Security Council passed a new resolution to ratchet up sanctions. Like the first resolution in December, the solid support for this move (after noisy misgivings by South Africa) appeared to take Iran by surprise. It responded with the seizure of the British boat, withdrawing cooperation from the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN watchdog, and, this week, saying that it was ready to start uranium enrichment, the most controversial part of its nuclear work.
It may be ready in the sense of wanting to start, but that does not mean that it can. This is a country, after all, that has been prevented by sanctions and lack of expertise from building refineries to turn its own oil into petrol. It has been forced to spend the bounty from high oil prices on subsidising imported petrol to fend off protests that might threaten the regime. Nor, come to that, has Iran been able to make spare parts for its national airline, which has a safety record so poor that buying a ticket carries a significant risk of death.
Mark Fitzpatrick, a nuclear proliferation analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, has argued steadily that Iran is struggling to master uranium enrichment, the trickiest step in making fuel for power stations or fissile material for bombs. Ali Larijani, the chief Iranian negotiator, said this week that Iran had begun feeding uranium gas into 3,000 centrifuges. But although this is about ten times the number of centrifuges that Iran was previously thought to have, it does not mean that they are working properly; even its pilot plant has been severely delayed.
True, it is unfortunate that Iran has shut the doors to IAEA inspectors. Dissidents originally tipped off the world about Iran’s covert work but since then details, if incomplete, have come from the IAEA. Yet even if that intelligence will soon be out of date, at the moment it confirms the picture of Iran’s shaky mastery of the technology.
Threats by Iran this week will only increase the willingness of countries to close ranks against it. So, too, will its behaviour over the British captives, and so may their personal accounts, for all the dismay they have triggered in Britain. The Royal Navy and the Army should be perturbed that Faye Turney and 14 young servicemen were so ill-prepared for handling themselves in captivity that they lent themselves so quickly to supporting Iranian claims about the location of their boat. But the national storm about their accounts has accused them of giving Iran a propaganda triumph — and in the search for pessimism with which to berate them, that is too neat.
It springs from a fantasy that image can be precisely controlled, untrue even in the historic military encounters that have been recited this week with such nostalgia. The accounts of the detention will have left many people — not just in Britain — with a lasting impression of Iran’s malign behaviour, regardless of what they suggest about the Armed Forces. When the Security Council next comes to judge Iran’s compliance, in five weeks’ time, that malevolence is bound to dominate the impression.
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Iran denies the Holocaust, and is actively seeking the weapons to perpatrate one. The time for international indifference and hesitation has long passed, if the promise of 'Never Again' is to be upheld.
Hannah, Manchester, UK
Iran has right to have nuclear technology. If we want to talk democracy, than we all have same rights.
You see Iran as a treat, but I see US as a huge treat to world peace. After all they are the only country that ever used the Nuclear weapons.
Current US and UK policy made a point: if you do not have WMD get it fast, for it is the only way to be secure.
Not-a-muslim, Novi Sad, Serbia
Some points for discussion: Saddam Hussein had an unshakeable desire to invade Saudi Arabia and become his own version of the "Mahdi"; the US stopped his drive toward Moslem domination, that would have resulted in a version of Jihad...
Bill Clinton cut the US Army in half during his term; but during WWII, there were 16 million soldiers stationed around the globe... with half the population base of today's 300 million... if and when the dangers warrant it, the US will reinstate the draft, and put at least 2 million soldiers under arms..
Now that Iran no longer feels threatened by Iraq, they are emboldened to menace Israel and their Sunni neighbors... no one has threatened Iran since Hussein lost power... so why are certain powers supporting Iran? Brinksmanship?
And further... if the US and allies decide to neutralize a real threat from Iran, it can and will be done, with little effort.. because the mission will NOT be to pacify a countryside, or establish a friendly government;
Phil Baker, Mountain Home, USA
Please stop kidding yourself and get real. The "hostages" affair has shown which regime is weak, and its not Iran's. UK was beaten fair and square and still you have enough nerve to call Iran weak. So what does this mean? Does it mean that UK and US still will attack Iran just because its weak? Or there will be another false pretex like WMD in Iraq? Is this what UK wishes? You have to be very careful what you wish for, sometimes your wishes may come true.
As another point, "hostages" affair has shown that UK as a country is dumbing down. On every level, starting from your PM and ending with "hostages" themselves the lack of spine, courage, decency and wits has been evident. Without the support of US, the UK is a hollow mummy that has very little weight on the world stage. And no matter how you spin this story, you won't be able to hide this. So please ease up on Iran. You can strike this country, but you won't be able to defeat it. Use UN and negotiations, not force.
Oleg, Toronto, Canada
Ah the usual apologists for the Iranian regime come out of the woodwork. As Orwell said, those who "are so fond of balancing democracy against totalitarianism and proving that one is as bad as the other are simply frivolous people who have never been shoved up against realities". You may have a problem with Israel's foreign policy or indeed its not-so-secret nuclear programme, but to attempt to equate it to Iran is just ignorant.
SDB, Cambridge,
Crashing kid
You fail to realize that Israel has never threaten or promised to destroy anyone and despite some very grim circumstances in 73, did not employ the use of its nukes. Iran on the other hand has made threats to Israel and talked about wiping them off the face of the earth, do you want people like that to have nukes? The Russians and US were rational about their nukes and never lost sight of the cost of using them. Giving Nukes to radical religious types that think the afterlife is more important than this life means that they have far less concerns about the effect of their actions in this world.
Iran is not under any threat of invasion, it is clear that the US can not afford to take on a country nearly twice the size of Iraq. The purpose of the nukes is to make themselves a regional superpower and threaten their Sunni neighbors.
Colin Parkinson, Vancouver, Canada
"why should Israel have nuclear weapons and not Iran?"
The reason is quite simple. Iran is dedicated to the destruction of Israel. Israel is not dedicated to the destruction of Iran.
Dr. Keith Anderson, Durham, England
The trouble is that Iran has a valid case - why should Israel have nuclear weapons and not Iran?
One comment says that Iran is 'aiming to erode the credibility of the west' but the west has no credibility. There were no WMD, so Blair and Bush went to war anyways in a move that has only allowed Iran to increase it's influence in the area.
Surely Iran has earned the right to be treated with respect - after all, it is only trying to prevent another Sunni administration in Iraq and better itself by claiming more influence in affairs it is interested in.
You see, it is not about who is on the right or wrong side. In the UK we can see that politicians are no more honest than anyone else - they are simply career people trying to get to the top of their profession and gain as much influence as they can for themselves. It is no different in Iran.
crashing dashing kid, wirral, uk
This is a country... which has signed the world's largest ever oil and gas deals to supply China for twenty years, which collaborates closely with the very active Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (a serious defence pact joining Russia, China, and a number of several Central Asian republics), holds large-scale naval exercises jointly with India, who also look to Iran for long term oil supplies, and which has been handed power in Iraq by the stupidity of the war and its aftermath. Iran carries very much more weight than most commentators seem to realise. It would be in our interest to treat the country with rather more respect. It is, after all, largely as a reaction to mindless US hawkishness that the current reactionary regime was voted ino power.
Mick Citizen, Cardiff,
"it is unfortunate that Iran has shut the doors to IAEA inspectors."
I don't believe it has. A fresh count of centrifuges will be made shortly. More detailed inspection on the manufacture of centrifuges can be done only through the Additional Protocol of the NPT, to which Iran does not yet subscribe.
Does anyone have any more detail on this?
Tony Gold, Bournemouth, England
I think that this is a naive take. We have to remember that Iran's target audience is not us, so what we think of Iran's recent behaviour is irrelevant. Iran seems to be aiming to erode the credibility of the west. As a theocratic state, Iran knows all about the power of image and belief. If Iran manages to reduce the credibility of western power, it has won a round, and what we think of its malevolence is neither here nor there.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/US