Bronwen Maddox: World Briefing
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How much do Britain and Poland stand to lose if they refuse to compromise on the new European Union treaty? In Britain’s case, not much, unless you put a very high value on close relations with President Sarkozy of France and Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor. But Tony Blair has indeed put a high value on those relations, and seems unlikely, as his final act on the world stage, to bring the treaty crashing down.
Poland would lose more: possibly cash, from 2013 onwards, and whatever goodwill it hasn’t lost in the past three years as a member of the EU, except that there isn’t much left to lose. On the other hand, continuing the pattern of prickliness and unpredictability which has already cost it friends, it is more likely than Britain to bring the treaty to a halt.
This is a messy finale for Blair. The summit, which begins today, is supposed to end tomorrow night, but may well spill into the weekend, and British objections will be one reason.
Blair has made much in the past month, since Sarkozy’s election and since the climate change pact at the G8 summit, of his relations with France and Germany. But somehow, he and his ministers neglected to tell their counterparts how fervently Britain intended to stick to its “red lines”, proposals it would just not accept. Other countries were shocked this week when Margaret Beckett, the Foreign Secretary, told them Britain would not accept anything that handed new powers to Brussels, or created new rights, because that would force it to hold a referendum, which it would expect to lose.
British officials hope that Merkel, keen to repeat her G8 success of pulling off a deal, understands the difficult position of a Labour prime minister, given the opposition of the Tories and public wariness of Europe. But they’re not sure.
If Germany won’t bend, then Gordon Brown will have to decide whether those relationships are really worth all that Blair claims.
For Poland, the costs of obduracy may be more tangible. In the next budget round, which affects EU spending from 2013 onwards, it might not get such generous subsidies and aid. A budget offer could not be grotesquely unfair, and yet other countries that had wanted the treaty to go through, would be in no mood to do it favours.
To the EU’s warmest supporters, this constant bartering with undefined threats and rewards represents the essence of the union’s strength: a desire to find compromise. But to Britain and Poland, which both have good reason to gibe at the proposed treaty, it represents the worst: the threat of unknown, future punishment for the offence for defending their corners.
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The solution is simple; let the Europeans elect the European president and European Commission.
Ray Frowd, Cambridge,
Victoria, London. You really should wake up and smell the coffee. Fortunately, most European publics, unlike those in Britain, are not fed a daily diet of EU scare stories and nonsense about "superstates" etc. Most want the EU to function effectively and in order to do so with 27 members it requires some overdue reform to decsion-making processes. Of course, for those who despise the EU and would like Britain withdraw, arguments about the need for reform cut little ice.
Phil , Newcastle upon Tyne,
Arik Silverman, you have just made a really stupid comment. Firstly, in 1939 the situation was completely different and secondly who should have the UK backed in 1939? Hitler? You have just shown your grasp of history.
Think before you speak.
siudol, Winnipeg, Canada
This wouldn't be the first time backing Poland had disastrous consequences for the UK: remember 1939.
Arik Silverman, Milwaukee, USA / WI
The Dutch have not gone silent at all, it just does not get reported... We have already managed to get the constitution-idea scrapped as well as the european flag and anthem, and we are still fighting to have our national parliament to still be something of importance...
Martin, Helmond, The Netherlands
The EU is a club for Europe. More importantly it is a club for failed/voted out/retired politicians and senior civil servants who, as EU employees are paid even more money for even less accountability.
The EU auditors have refused to sign off the EU accounts for 11 years running.
Marta Andreason, the EU chief accounting officer, was sacked for being "disloyal" when her investigations found evidence of widespread fraud. Neil Kinnock was instrumental in her sacking.
Finally, Protocol 7 of the EU Constitution grants immunity from legal proceedings for all officials, even after having left office.
In other words they will continue to conduct their business in a way thet suits them. They are untouchable.
Kath Parish, Bromley,
Why have the French and the Dutch gone silent? Are they going to accept the newly amended "treaty/constitution"? Or, is their pregnant silence significant?
Iab Varey, Manchester, UK
The very fact that not all 27 countries of the EU have been given a Referendum on this 'Constitution' (which is what it really is of course), just proves how undemocratic the whole thing really is. I am amazed that the citizens of the countries who did not get to vote on this, and those of France and Holland who rejected it once already, are not making a fuss. Maybe we just don't hear about it. I cannot see how this farce can continue when there are so many disgruntled people, not just in Britain, but in other EU countries aswell. How ironic that the idea of the EU was to maintain peace in Europe. Forcing people to accept anything that they do not want and did not even vote for is bound to cause resentment and unrest and probably even revolution.
Victoria, London, England
How much more CAN we lose?
EU worshippers can take advantage of freedom of movement.
The rest of us just want our country back.
YORKY, Devon England,
The real problem with British politicians , and citizens alike...., is that being part of the EU has always been a never ending fight, constant haggling and systematic opposition to any valuable EU reforms....Well, well, France and others are not that angelic either but Britain's thrive has always been of lesser Europe, satisfying itself with an idea of a trading bloc only. I guess the views of what the EU ( or at least some EU states now) should be has never been so antagonistic; Even though France voted NO ( a referendum which Britain never had the guts to call) France and its partners are staunch advocates of political Integration. Call it Federation, confederation, Union .....
Britain clinches on its rights as if being part of the EU were a war to win or lose.....maybe it would be better for everyone if Britain called a referendum....and let the people speak. If britain wants to quit, so let it be....It'snever good to be a reluctant partner...that's been the case for 35 years
pascal-pierre, Dinan (F), European Union
Britain shoud surrender no more to European super-state ambitions. Best to quit this anti-democratic clique which hates referenda so much that Adolfa Merkel wants to disguise the true nature of what she's proposing,
Ross, Jakarta, Indonesia
Bloody Europe - was life not easier when we just had our own laws and policies to deal with? Closer economic ties are great and benfit all countries but we got this from the common market but having to pay for development of poorer countries across the EU is a constant drain on the UK - especially when the NHS, public transport and pensions are critically under-funded. The EU's open border policy is also having the effect of diluting our national identity and creating a real imbalance amongst previously successfully mixed multi-ethnic communities.
I bet if we had known how much the EU has cost and its effects on this country 20 years ago we really would have seen some opposition from the UK!
Andrew, Leicester, UK