Bronwen Maddox: World Briefing
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It is the haste with which Tony Blair has scripted his own sequel as the world’s envoy to the Middle East that gives the impression of self-absorption. The rush by his team to try to announce some kind of role by today, the last day of his premiership, seems designed to ease the sting of surrendering high office more than to solve the problems of the Middle East.
It is not that the idea is ludicrous, if you take a long step around Blair’s role as one of the architects of the Iraq invasion, and his support of Israel’s military action in Lebanon. Many Arabs loathe him just for that, and in a region that sustains grudges so easily for hundreds of years, the grievances of the past decade are hardly going to be set aside. But Blair’s passion for tackling the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is beyond dispute.
Nor does his role upstage Gordon Brown as much as it might have seemed just a fortnight ago (although it would have been polite to tell the incoming team before last Wednesday, as diplomats say was the case). Hamas’s takeover of Gaza in the past two weeks has undermined Brown’s pragmatic and humane proposal to focus on the Palestinian economy even while the politics were stalled.
But the problem with any role for Blair is that it is impossible to define while the political route ahead remains so unclear, and that won’t be sorted out by a few hours of talks about what he is supposed to do. The speed with which Blair’s role has been written has left ambassadors and senior Foreign Office officials speechless in the past five days, gesturing with their canapés at garden parties to make up for an absence of words. The plan to make him an envoy for the Quartet — the US, the European Union, the United Nations and Russia — has been driven by the US and Blair’s office (the Foreign Office kept at arm’s length), with EU support. Finally, at the weekend, Russia gave startled assent.
The role will be “political”, rather than economic, like the job done by Jim Wolfensohn, former head of the World Bank, who used his efforts (and his own money) to try to breathe life into the Palestinian economy. At least before Hamas’s seizure of Gaza, the pursuit of peace-through-prosperity was the thrust of Brown’s policy. He had dispatched Ed Balls, economic secretary to the Treasury, to the region, and Balls had concluded that economic recovery was “a prerequisite for bringing peace”.
In a recent speech to Labour Friends of Israel, the parlimentary lobbying group, Brown cited the report by the Portland Trust, set up by financier Sir Ronald Cohen, which argued that the development of the Northern Ireland economy had lessons for the Palestinians.
The attraction is that, even when diplomacy has disintegrated, a focus on the economy may still improve the situation. The Portland report is an excellent analysis of why that worked in Northern Ireland. But amid turmoil, it is impossible, and that may be the case on the West Bank and Gaza now.
The US-Israeli plan is now to pour resources into the West Bank, and to shore up Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian President, to make the contrast with Gaza as great as possible. But the hazards are huge. Abbas will not want to abandon the 1.4 million Palestinians in Gaza (nor to seem like a US-Israeli pawn). Any revival of the West Bank economy would depend on Israel relaxing control of Palestinian movement, as argued in a World Bank report last month that was highly critical of Israeli policy. Yet Israel can say that this would expose it to insupportable security threats; Hamas has a significant presence on the West Bank and it is not going away.
Blair may well feel that this paralysis plays to his strengths. The success of talks in Northern Ireland, arguably his greatest achievement, sprang from his skills as a broker. He has always been convinced, officials say, that if you lean over the table, in shirt sleeves, looking the other side in the eyes, you can extract a deal. No doubt that is how he imprinted this weekend’s EU deal so firmly with British concerns.
But that technique can make too light of the deep changes needed to make the deals work. In Northern Ireland, Blair’s regional devolution had paved the way. And no broker, however charismatic, will have the clout of a government head. In Blair’s rush to fashion a new persona, in one of the world’s most bitter conflicts, it is hard not to feel a personal urgency that is out of step with the crisis in the region.
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Well what do you know, the fox is in charge of the chicken coop.
simonS, Bolton,
He has been ordered around by Bush for years, this will just continue his lap-dog role.
Robert Adams, Longwood, usa/fl
I completely agree. In relation to Mr Brown's ascendancy to the premiership, the announcement of Mr Blair's new position could be described as 'a good day to bury good news'.
Robert, Sheffield, UK
Gilbert & Sullivan could hardly have created a more outrageous parody and a perversion of a Prime Minister. Blair has been the antithesis of the Great British Statesman.
A smart man would have declined the Mideast Envoy
gig, but vanity, money, and an extremely long shot at redemption probably clouds his judgment.
Blair will be the Wrong Man...in the Wrong Job...at the Wrong Time. What can he possibly accomplish? His failure is pre-ordained.
Garth Strong, Sherman Oaks, USA
The most important quality that a peace maker should have is Trust.Is Tony Blair trusted in the Middle East. Tha answer after Iraq is obvious.
Jan, London, UK
It might seem that he could say what is on his mind, without strings attached, if he had been in check due to his position as PM.
Yasar, Amman, Jordan
I wish Blair luck in his new role as peace envoy to the Middle East. I personally think that peace in that region is an impossible goal, but one must not confuse that region's problems with that of Northern Ireland. The IRA must have realized that their goose was cooked on Sept 11th 2001, when their income stream was clearly going to dry up immediately; the Americans had suddenly come to a Damascene understanding of the meaning of terrorism. Everything else flowed from that and Blair's skills were able to use this new Weltenschauung to broker peace. No such equivalent situation exists in the Israeli-Arab conflict.
David Garfield, London, UK
The ground work for the Northern Ireland settlement was laid by the "previous administration". Peter Brook is the unsung hero of the GFA. He brought the hard men to negotiation. Without him TB would have been on his own at the table
Bill, Belfast , N.I.
While yes there are some aspects of the Northern Ireland conflict that can't be compared to Israel and Palestine, there are many aspects which can. Both situations concern areas of land that are in politcal dispute with both sides laying claim to it with centuries of war and hurt behind it's formation. And Northern Ireland did contain extremists, perhaps not to the extent that there is in the middle east however.
Blair did well with Northern Ireland and might just do the same with the middle east, though someone has a point though that people in the Middle East might not listen to him. As for the economic argument, it has been a success in Northern Ireland. Most, I hope, agree that seeing our country prosper has made us realise the benefits of peaceful co-operation. Who knows if it will work in the Middle East.
Sarah , Belfast, Northern Ireland
A quick note to the casually misogynistic victor from spain: as one of the country's leading barristers, Cherie Blair has actually comprehensively out-earned her husband for the bulk of both their careers. Financially, she's been the one supporting him, not the other way around.
margaret m, london,
And they say the England football managers job is the most impossible job in the world
Matt, London,
Yes, blair was so passionate about the palestinians, the only thing he has managed in 10 years is to help to starve them into surrender, by enforcing an economic boycott. then there was the deafening silence when Israel rampaged through the west bank and Gaza looking for Gilad Shalit. Who remembers his intrasigance after the massacres at Jenin and Nablus? The Palestinians.
Blair will achieve nothing as he is viewed as an American stooge (rightly so).
akram, London,
You just can't keep a poodle down!
Daisy Anderson, Toronto, Canada
Blair was successful in NI as he came in after 18 years of tory intransigence, he was a fresh broom and most aprties were desperate for a solution. In the middle east he has too much form to be regarded as neutral and less people are really in favour of peace. Personally I don't feel that he will carry much weight, the big decisions will be made elsewhere, he'll just be endless talks that won't go anywhere. It suits his ego and it suits brown to have him based in Israel.
Mark, Newcastle, England,
Despite his willingness to show every one that he is concerned about the Middle East, his legaly will always come to haunt him. His alliance with Bush on many foreign policy issues will deter his efforts to succeed.
Finally, his chances of succeeding in his new role as an envoy, are very very limited, if not close to none.
DUZ, London,
Blair, the Quartet's Middle East peace envoy, you couldn't make it up.
David Turner, Leeds,
Mr. Blair is well practiced for his new position. He is simply switching from being George Bush's lap dog to being Israel's lap dog.
Tom Kelly, Boston, USA
Comprehensively failed to tackle any key issue in his own country for the last ten years.
Only significant achievement was to sell a pack of lies that got us all over involved in the Hell hole that is the ME.
This man is mentally unsound and soaked in the blood of innocents.
Tim, London, England
I admire him for putting his life at risk for an unsolvable cause.
Dexter, Stamford, UK
Well he's brought peace to Iraq - has he not?
Fred, Dubai, Dubai
Unlike former Middle East peacebroker, Jim Wolfesohn, I don't suppose Cherie will allow Tony to spend one single cent of their hard-earned money on this new role. But at least he's got what he wants - "Tony Blair-The Musical" played out on the world stage. We have not believed any of his mantras over the last ten years, what makes him think that anyone, particularly the Palestinians, are going to believe him now.
caroline kennedy, San Jose, Costa Rica
So, he will hope to avoid being charged with crimes against humanity - hence the rush to prolong his so-called immunity against prosecution.
geoffrey Cox, Moscow, Russia
Fundamentalists in the Middle East must be very concerned whether Tony Blair becomes peace envoy! terrorists will react badly to being forcibly marched to ATM machines or having to be tagged or even being sentanced to an ASBO.Annoncing a gun amnesty may do the trick though, it really stopped gun crime in the UK.
Michael Tomlin, HOOK, Hants
Way out of his depth, but needs must...a big mortgage to pay and a high maintenance wife.
victor M., Malaga, Spain
"Blairâs passion for tackling the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is beyond dispute" ... So was Eddie the Eagle's passion for ski-jumping, but that didn't make him either good at it or suitable to be a contestant in the Olympics. Haven't the inhabitants of the region suffered enough already that they will have Blair foisted upon them?
E Burgess, Slough,
All that TB has "imprinted" is the signing away of his "people's" sovereignty against their wishes and in exchange for a starring role in an arena where he isn't burnt. Even I am stumped by the man's callous gall. Amorality was never better defined.
elizabeth schumann, Paris, France
At least martyrdom would not be an anti-climax.
Nicholas Kermack, Nottingham,
Mr Blair will have an extremely hard time as mediator in the Middle-East. Who will Mr. Blair mediate between ?
Israel on one side - who on the other ?
Certainly NOT the Hezballah, or HAMAS terror organizations, or the FATAH semi-terror organization.
Who then... terror sponsors Syria or Iran ?
Good Luck Mr.Blair !
moshe shen, kiryat motzkin , Israel
With Mr Blair's late conversion to Roman Catholicism and now his transmogrification as Middle East envoy, his personal and political career begins to take on a remarkable resemblance to the last days of Charles II, of which Lord Rochester wittily epigrammatised:
"We have a pritty witty King
Whose word no man relies on,
Who never said a foolish thing
Nor ever did a wise one".
With George Bush (Charles's Louis XIV), he helped create the mess which is today's Middle East, why not give him the chance to fix it? That would give us all a chance to re-gather our wits after a decade of spin and to scrutinise the new EU mini-treaty without his blandishments. Was Tony asleep when another French monarch pulled the rabbit - state subsidies - out of the EU hat at last week's summit? If so, it's certainly time for a British referendum.
Dr David Green, Athens, Greece
Fortunately, there's not that much more havoc that can be wreaked by him that isn't already there.
Chris, Worcester,
Yes, "Many Arabs loathe him..."
But in case you haven't noticed (perhaps because you've spilled your decaf-mocha-espresso and obliterated pertinent pars in your copy of the New York Times), that in a part of the world where every (Arab) country is a dictatorship (or some form of), women are oppressed - beyond belief! - and 'Backwardness' is promoted as 'being next to godliness," it can rightly be argued, that they hate everybody.
'Me and my brother against the stranger.' Uh oh, Little 'Sis wants to study! Time for an honor killing.
Me and my brother - against my sister.
Blair is the stranger. Blair is hated. Blair is the man for the job.
Unless of course we don't even want to really try and will just settle for another 50 years of this crap - in which case send a prominent UN official!
Sam, Tel Aviv, Israel
Why do idiotic diplomats and politicians insist on drawing parallels with Northern Ireland regarding the Israel/Islam conflict?
The Irish economy isn't propped up with foreign aid or oil revenues, and Irish citizens generally do not consist of the most extremist element of fundamentalist Muslims.
The comparison is completely irrelevant and pointless.
Rob, Colchester, UK
That role is hopeless for Blair or anyone else.
Jerry Scroggin, Phoenix, Arizona/USA
I find it difficult to think of anyone more unsuitable
Gary, manila,
Moses back in the Holy Land! Hurrah!
Statistical miracles by the bucketload,edicts carved on sponge and Fingers Levy to carry his bags.
Lloyd Webber and Rice should be notified immediately.
michael murphy, brighlingsea, england
blair is a war criminal.....no one in the Middle East trusts him nor the UK after Iraq, and lebanon;and british toading to the yanks and uncritical support for rogue Israel. this is being set up for yet another absurd US-UK-Israeli imposed peaced plan which suits their purposes but not the palestinians.
alex, Paris, France
Bronwen misses the other "huge risk" - that Abbas and his organisation of kleptopoliticos will just syphon off the resources.
Cute that Ed Balls (who he) has now pronounced on "the way forward for Palestine". I'm sure the Palestinians have been waiting with bated breath.
P.Stewart, Cranbrook, UK
The final curtain of the Prime Minister's career leaves a bitter taste which will endure. Instead of making plans to tour the flood devastation in his own country, he is rushing to do the deal that will give him a new role on the world's stage
Christopher Gillibrand, Brussels, Belgium/ Europe
I lived amongst the Palestinians and can express the personal opinion that Blair's negotiationg style will not work with them. They care more about the nature of the man rather than the deals he suggests. Blair's irretrievably flawed personality will prevent them from being able to trust him. These are not Europeans they have a different history and culture - its almost impossible for anyone from outside the region to understand what drives them. I would re-iterate the sentiment 'If you want to understand the Middle East then start by watching David Lean's film Lawrence of Arabia'. Envoys are sucked in by smiles and promises of future action that will never materialise - It is the way of the Arab people to tell you what you want to hear rather than offend you by telling the truth.
Riley, Kiev, Ukraine
Russian assent means one thing - they are sticking it to Blair in the belief that he will fail and the Western Powers with him. The door then is open to Russia asserting its old influence. It was with half a glance towards the Middle East that Putin claimed the USA was the greatest aggressor of modern times. Dropping more bombs on Vietnam than the Allies did in the whole of World War Two and of course the mass slaughter of Japanese civilians. And as Blair is forever chained to the Bush legacy......need one say more. How desperate Blair must be to remain on the world stage to pick this posioned chalice. But the master of spin and self deception will I suppose amaze us for a while yet.
john walter, bonn, germany
If Mr. Blair is as successful ina Middle East role as in his U.K. role, then the unrest will carry on for decades.
"If you have integrity nothing else matters, if you don't have integrity nothing else matters".
D. Mason, Preston, Lancashire
Russian assent means one thing - they are sticking it to Blair in the belief that he will fail and the Western Powers with him. The door then is open to Russia asserting its old influence. It was with half a glance towards the Middle East that Putin claimed the USA was the greatest aggressor of modern times. Dropping more bombs on Vietnam than the Allies did in the whole of World War Two and of course the mass slaughter of Japanese civilians. And as Blair is forever chained to the Bush legacy......need one say more. How desperate Blair must be to remain on the world stage to pick this posioned chalice. But the master of spin and self deception will I suppose amaze us for a while yet.
john walter, bonn, germany
Once TB has left the country , please cancel his passport so he cannot ever return. Then he can circle the globe forever more in the taxpayer funded private jet ,dropping in on regional conflicts to to dispense oil on the troubled waters.
In my view he needs some professional help.
Chris Murray, Aberdeen, Scotland