Bronwen Maddox: World Briefing
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Is Russia managing to build a rival to Nato? More than you would have thought last year and more than is comfortable in Europe and the US.
The summit yesterday of Russia, China and their Central Asian neighbours was dubbed the “anti-Nato” by Izvestia, the Russian daily newspaper, and it has a point. Iran, as an “observer”, added a new and menacing tone to the group.
Russia’s main frustration in its ambitions for the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO), as the 11-year-old group is formally called, is that China wants the club to focus on economics and energy more than security and shares none of Russia’s delight in picking a fight with the US. Even so, the group could clash with the West over Central Asian energy supplies.
The SCO’s deep interest in Afghanistan is an even surer conflict. The West’s best hope is that the tensions within the group stop it doing anything coherent.
The SCO emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union to tackle border disputes between Russia, Central Asian states and China. Its members are now Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. India, Pakistan, Iran and Mongolia have joined as observers, and the leaders of Turkmenistan and Afghanistan attended this year as guests.
After the summit in Bishkek, the Kyrgyz capital, the leaders of the six members will go to Chelyabinsk, in the Russian Urals, to watch war games between their joint forces. That blunt expression of common interest is almost refreshing, a blast of crisp air with the authentic chill of the Cold War, compared with the cloying barbeques and summer sports with which President Bush has been courting potential friends.
The West has had no great need to take the group seriously. The irascibility that these leaders display towards Europe and America they also turn on each other. But this year’s meeting shows more focus than usual. The West’s worries should be:
— The SCO says that it wants to play a bigger role in helping Afghanistan and fighting drugs trafficking. Its members have even more self-interest than the US in this conflict, and all the advantages of proximity;
— The group wants Kyrgyzstan to expel the US from its air base in Bishkek, although Ednan Karabaev, the Kyrgyz Foreign Minister said, before the summit that it was not seeking closure because the base was important for helping Afghanistan;
— This year, Russia, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan signed a deal to expand a Soviet scheme for delivering gas from the Caspian region. This could challenge Western plans to open new supplies, independent of Russia, by routing exports across the Caspian Sea. Nursultan Nazarbayev, the Kazakh President, said that the group “should create an ‘Energy Club’, which . . . could become one of the key elements of Asian energy strategy”;
— Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, the Iranian President, used the summit as another chance to hit out at US plans for a missile-defence system in Poland and the Czech Republic. Russia and Iran are vocal allies on this point.
The US, which sees the system as a defence against missiles from Iran, yesterday formally bestowed on Israel an unprecedented, $30 billion (£15 billion), ten-year military aid package, partly because of the threat from Iran.
Yesterday’s belligerent talk, led by Russia, with Iran as its enthusiastic echo, was the spirit of the SCO that President Putin has wanted to cultivate. But for all the threats, China’s restraining influence was evident. Few analysts expect Iran to be made a full member of the SCO in open challenge to the US, something that China does not want.
Out of all the West’s worries about the SCO, the greatest should be control of energy supplies. The war games, at the moment, are a showy distraction.
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Summit was great! I hope all Central Eurasians will move at least one step further into Pan-Turkic integration and identity within the SCO!
Nariste, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
Michael Standard, london, UK
Please stop kidding yourself. Britain is not part of Europe in political sense, it's just anothe state of US. As well, I would like to ask you a question: why do you think that Russia is obliged to supply Europe with energy? It is capitalism there and you supply your goods to whomever you wish. If Europe dosn't like Gasprom proces it is welcome to find better prices somewhere else. It's called free market. As well, as an independent country Russia isn't obliged to follow West's policies. West was ignoring Russia's opinion and mistreating Russia last 15 years, so why you are so surprised that Russia seeks new allies? And before accusing Russia, please take a hard look at the mirror and remember what you did to Iraq and Yogoslavia. So please leave Russia alone and get concentrating on sorting out Iraq's mess first. As well please address Afganistan's drug problem. This is what US and UK ARE obliged to do. You brake it, you own it.
Oleg, Toronto, Canada
I see no reason for the US to continue in NATO as distinguished from having a separate treaty with the UK. The Europeans are dying and too cowardly to even begin to defend themselves. They would much rather fight to the last drop of US blood
Herbert, new york, ny
SCO is a good tool to make UK and US behave cowardly as they did while USSR confronted them. That is, all hypocritical rhetorics of US and UK was allowed but militarily they were supposed to have their mouth shut. What is more important the aggressive international steps of Anglo-Saxon Empire today will be rolled down to acceptable proportions with a further development of SCO. How about that, Sir?
Serg, Moscow,
GLOBAL CONNING
The predicitions of global warming based on CO2 emissions are a complete con. There is no credible underlying scientic evidence that the two are linked. The computer models on which the predicitions of doom are riddled with uncertainties and assumptions. The earth's climate has been changing naturally since the earth's formation with a number of periods of extensive glaciation. These people who are predicting global warming is linked to CO2 levels cannot even reliably predict the weather for more than a few days ahead so how can they claim what is going to happen over the next ten or twenty years? Ten years ago they were prediciting that we were heading for aa new ice age.
The media fuelled frenzy over the CO2 issue is a twentieth century witch hunt which the politicians have welcomed with glee as an excuse to impose more and more taxes and the media and business are riddled with an increrasing number of meaningles terms such as "carbon footprint", "ca
Frank Brady, London,
Now - why would Mahmoud Ahmedinejad oppose a "missile shield" unless to "win friends and influence people" - like Russia for example ..
This from a man from Iran - with the largest oil reserves in the world - who insists on building nuclear "fuel" for a country that has no nuclear reactors.
More and more - the "New Cold War" resembles the "Old Cold War" as aspiring powers arm and use proxy agents in a new version of the "Great Game".
This does not bode well for civilised life in the 21st Century ...
drk, Cadiz, Spain
For all your sophisticated justifications and imagined dramas that justify the murder of a million Semites in Iraq, Britain still cannot escape the judgment of history. Aren't Britons by now starting to worry about the weight of enemies amassing against you? Talk about your Cold War chills, distract yourselves with non-existant Iranian warheads, find frigid comfort in "alternative fuel" arguments, but they're all just buying time before the the weight of global disbelief and simple pragmatics are going to crush you. Britain is already a pariah, the rest of the world is simply waiting for you to realise it. I hope it takes long enough to push up oil prices for long enough so that you have enough time to invest even more hundreds of billions via government subsidies and corporate profits in "biofuels". Only once your infrastructure is all paid for and in place, only then will oil prices come down, undercut your "green" fuel and knock that final hole in your empire's sarcophagus.
Al, Johannesburg, South Africa
A prescient article. Europe needs to, once again, stop fighting amoungst member states, stop bashing the US- its saving grace, and unite with the States to form a formidable deterrent and force to undermine Russia and China, It could be done easier than one imagines.
Michael Standard, london, UK
Energy is the wrong weapon to choose, and it's a mistake I hope they persevere in! Anything more calculated to spur the growth of alternative supplies of energy than a belligerent SCO controlling fossil resources is hard to imagine. And we need all the spurs we can get.
Ian Kemmish, Biggleswade, UK
If you think that proximity to Afganistan is an "advantage" in any sense, you must be mad (no pun intended).
Michael, Dubai,
nay a swiss bank account is agreat ice breaker,business is the same the world over,remember russia lost billions after the fall of the myth called communism, the closet greedy capitalist were just a few vodcas away,
michael joseph heavey, cahersiveen/adams town, MADNESS