Bronwen Maddox: World Briefing
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The storm over India’s new nuclear pact with the US, which now threatens to bring down the Indian Government, illustrates the only good thing about the deal – it is an antidote to anti-Western reflexes in the country that still run deep.
Other than that, the deal is a worry, for all the reasons that the US Congress has asserted: it is an extravagant breach of the spirit of non-proliferation treaties, showering the benefits of US nuclear help on India even though it acquired nuclear weapons.
But the row is a reminder that Indian stability and prosperity are surprisingly fragile, given the country’s remarkable growth. If the resolution manages to silence the intense nationalist voices, who put a fantasy of independence ahead of the pursuit of growth, then a bad deal will have had one good result.
Who would have thought, in a deal that gives India too much while asking for too few safeguards in return, that the greatest opposition would come from within India itself? Communist allies of the ruling coalition, led by the Congress Party, have threatened to withdraw their support over the civil nuclear cooperation deal with the US.
The Communists say that the deal hurts Indian sovereignty and could make it beholden to the US. But Manmohan Singh, the Prime Minister, argues that the deal ends three decades of isolation for India, because of its acquisition of nuclear weapons, which prevented it gaining help for the nuclear power stations that it needs to support its growth. The trigger for this week’s uproar has been a comment from Ronen Sen, the Indian Ambassador to the US, in which he appeared to call communists in parliament “headless chickens”; he said later that they should not be offended as the remark referred only to journalists.
The row is important, not only because it jeopardises the deal (and it probably does not do so fatally). If it pulled down the Government, it would choke off reforms needed to maintain growth at the current rate of more than 7 per cent a year. Singh, widely described as one of the architects of India’s economic modernisation, is a champion of those reforms, intended to curb the budget deficit and spread access to good jobs beyond the English-speaking middle class.
Neither Congress nor communists want an election this year, but the turmoil may still force one before the Government’s term ends in May 2009. It was never a strong coalition, born out of the mutual desire to keep the Hindu-nationalist BJP out of power. But both would be foolish to campaign on the nuclear issue, which has not touched a national chord. It arouses none of the passions of parallel nuclear questions in Pakistan or Iran, for example.
It does in the US, however, where Congress, even before it fell under Democratic control, was quick to accuse the Bush Administration of striking a deal that subverted efforts to curb proliferation in order to cement an alliance. It is some small compensation that the deal strengthens the hand of Singh and other reformers, at the expense of those who would rather India stayed shut off from the world.
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Note the comments of B Desai, VP chatwani and ANB....But the best is from Vinu the Mallu...I loved the line,How British of you !!! I recommend you(writer) dwell in colonial times until you become a History :)... I disagree with R khan...BJP is NOT opposing the deal, their only concern is that there has to be NO compromise with India's sovereignty, connected with defense, given unfaithful beloved neighbours! Lastly, if God bestows me with a boon, I will ask for the lives of all communists around the world :)...In that way rest of us will have enough natural resources to live with :)
Thank you.
Jigish Parikh, Austin,Texas, USA
I wish to god western commentators begin to learn to qualify the line "one of the architects of economic reforms" with regard to manmohan singh. He could not have done what he did as finance minister without the strong political backing of P V Narasimha Rao. Without Rao, no one would have made him PM and even if he did manage to be so, he would not have lasted a day. Today he is PM because Sonia Gandhi does not want to be PM. His political capital is limited and he has the knack of forgetting this. He made the incredible blunder of not reading the mood of his communist and marxist allies, who keep in power, accurately.
India's politics are complex and not easily subject to two-minute noodle analysis. Coalitions have mean't that progress is uneven, two steps front and couple back. But the movement is overall forward and the stability of the democratic system, with increasing participation, is rock solid. Economic growth is happening today, inspite of the government. Remember that.
Raj, Delhi, India
I wouldn' t take the rhetoric coming from the Communists (and the BJP, who if in power would have leapt at such a deal) as a serious indication of Indian national sentiment, particularly with respect to engagement with the US. It's merely background noise to the vibrant Indian democracy - the vast majority of both the Indian elite and middle class are very much in favour of not just a normalisation of ties with America but also a much more comprehensive strategic partnership.
Similarly, I wouldn't take the noises coming out of Congress to be indicative of American views of India and a potential alliance with the Indians. Both the Democratic and Republican establishments see a partnership with India - a large democracy with secular and pro-market instincts - as one of the priorities of US foreign policy in the 21st century.
The nuclear deal has had some bumps along the road, but it's success is inevitable given the strength of momentum on US-India relations in both nations.
H Juneja, London, England
Nuclear power is the only clean answer to India's massive energy needs 10 years in future. The nuclear deal is a good deal for India. It was about time the western world accepted India as a serious player. You have to be pragmatic and trust a 1 billion strong democracy to act responsibly on the nuclear front.
Communist parties in India are fundamentally against any business with the US. I hope the Congress government will be able to negotiate past them and seal the nuclear deal.
Governments will change but the India's appetite for progress won't be impacted.
B Desai, Brighton, UK
A very well written article as always but unusually a little off the mark on 2 key issues: i. the nuclear deal is beneficial to the USA too as it will remove many of the regulatory and other hurdles and the unfortunate legacy that presently prevents closer partnership between the two countries. ii. Public opinion in India, in fact, strongly supports the deal and as various studies have shown is more favourable to the USA than in other countries.
The problem is that the present Govt lacks a majority in Parliament and depends on the Left for support. The Left and most of India's Muslims oppose the deal, though neither represents the broader public opinion on this issue, since it will likely lead to a closer strategic partnership with the US. The BJP would probably not be really too unhappy with this deal but feel it isnt their job to bail out the Govt especially as the Govt's attitude towards the BJP has been hostile with no outreach, partly as the price for Left support
bunty, new delhi, india
I have two issues with this piece.
First, i'm not quite sure why the row is a sign of fragility of India's stability? The fact that the debate is being carried out in a civilised manner is a display of the strenght of the democratic institution. Would the author claim that Britain's stability is fragile every time David Cameron finds something new to whine about?
Secondly, there is no significant political threat to India's growth. India grew quite rapidly when the right wing BJP, the largest opposition party, was in power. Even they are clearly pro-reform.
Surely the author could do better than to deal out this kind of tripe backed by shallow analyses and an arrogant occidental perspective.
Kaiomurz Motawara, London, London
"Illustrates the only good thing about the deal â it is an antidote to anti-Western reflexes in the country that still run deep."
âIndian stability and prosperity are surprisingly fragile.."
By above comments you illustrated you wishes and deeply held hatred against India.Mojority Indians (except small number of communists are against USA) wants their good relations with west to continue especially with USA and EU.Well there are people who dislike "british colonial hangovers" like you.
Don't loose you sleep of India's "fragile' economy, we are growing more than 8% a year(Target is 10-11% for the comming years). Political parties arguing, bringing down governments,elections,colation governments are a part of vibrant democracy if you understand that concept, thats what it made India stable and secure to emerge as the the world's largest democracy and emerging economic power .
Anil Rao, Hyderabad, India
India's nuclear deal carries more of 'ifs' and 'buts' than real guts. Who should behold the credit.... be it US for showering its generosity (?) in supplying nuclear fuel to India, or Manmohan Singh's kowtow and camaredarie in cementing the Indo-US relationships and opening new vistas and liberal approach in its nuclear policy and non-proliferation treaty. One aught to read and understand between the fine lines of the deal and its implications.As a common man and a pro-activist for peace with anti-nuke doctrines in my blood , such a deal is like asking someone to join a gang war , with empty guns and no ammunitions. Just follow the diktats of the gang leader and be his crony. But the irony is, there are more pitfalls and bottlenecks with in our Indian political scenario , to sabotage this deal. The "Reds" or the left wing Communists are ready to spark a raucus and topple the government , by withdrawing its support. Like Congress, the deal is hung precariously on the hinges,yo-yoing.
sandy, New Delhi, India
Since when did democratic debate be a sign of fragility? Sometimes the sarcasm and pessimism shown by non Indian writers can hardly veil the jealousy felt by them, that such a large and multicultural "third world" nation can actually have a liberal, democratic process, stable civil society and the rule of law. India will resolve this issue within itself, and after the debate the action taken will be that which is backed by the vast majority. More than can be said of the major foreign policy actions of the US and UK.
Ranjit Nambiar, WOKING, UNITED KINGDOM
I think the Communist Party are being very stupid in holding the Congress Party over a barrel on this.
They formed a coalition to keep the right wing BJP out of power, now their adopting the same stance as the BJP on this!
How can generating plenty of new electricity which is so badly needed and desired by all developing countires be bad for India? Who cares if they have to allow inspections or the Americans don't want more nukes being made? Sounds sensible to me.
Its high time that entire region spent the majority of its money on infrastructure,energy and public service needs rather than on military "needs"!
Machismo/pride on things like Kashmir, border disputes with China have caused misery and poverty for far too long for the people of Pakistan/India/China.
About time the politicians and militaries got over themselves and thought more about making the lives of their people better rather than military might. I'd like to see the US help Pakistan too with energy.
R Khan, Herts,
it is strange that in this day and age, Communist still have say in stifling the growth of a nation. No body can contest the need for energy to develop a nation and tragedy is that all these Communist drive air conditioned cars and live in airconditioned house and still champion the causes of people who live on Indian slums. To alievate poverty and to provide basis necessaties of life to general public you need power, that is what this deal otherwise known as "123 deal" gives to India.
Gopal Sharma, Loughborough, ENGLAND UK
Dear Sir,
With a dangerous neighbour like Pakistan (created by the British) it is better for India to have nuclear weapons than nuclear energy.In any event the Americans are only interested in keeping Indo-Pakistan relations hot so that they can sell arms to both sides.
V.P.Chatwani, Vienna, Austria
I feel that India should go ahead with operationalisation of the 123 agreement witrh the U.S. There is a fear in the minds of the learned opposition members of Indian Parliament that the U.S. will start dictating terms and the foreign policy of India should the Indians go ahead. It is not clear at this stage whether this is a possibility. India no doubt voted against Iran siding with U.S. But at some stage the country should go ahead with equipping itself with ability to overcome the enormous power needs of the future. There is no point in arguing that the deal will result only in marginal benefit on the power front. Indian leaders of all parties should study the deal and the relevant legislation enacted by the U.S. to make sure that in the event of the U.S. trying to twist the arm of India, there will be an escape clause and honourable exit without causing bitterness and l;oss of face for all concerned. I wish the Prime Minister success in his efforts to modernise India.
C.N.Sanjeevi, Chennai 600 086, India.
" Indian stability and prosperity are surprisingly fragile.." I hope you still keepon dreaming a grand breakup. How british of you!
Vinu the Mallu, Hitchin, herts
NPT is destroyed by offering India this exception. Platitudes by US that it isn't are self serving and insult our intelligence. India cannot be criticised as it is not a signatory to the NPT, but those who crafted it like the US, are faking the truth and were never committed to NPT or their own 123 legislation. New nuclear powers will emerge and per Nostradamus quatrain, winged birds of destruction will emerge from Iraq and destroy the world. Maybe he meant India?
Tony Blair once said "if you can fake sincerity you can do anything."
Billoo Bhai, London, UK
Amazing!! 60 years of democartic govts braving multitude of terrorist attacks and hosting 200 m muslims, and still surviving -- and you call India fragile?
Compare it to US. One attack on 9/11 the entire country was shut down for days!! Two expensive wars launched!!
ANB, Durham, UK
Surely,Indiaâs energy requirement will increase in tune with the development needs. Nuclear fuel is sure to play a big role in achieving energy security. Dr.Manmohan Singh has negotiated the deal in a sound and honourable way. It is in the India's interest that the 123 agreement be implemented with some fine-tuning. It is well nigh impossible to import nuclear fuel without some safeguards. It will be good if the political parties in India see reason and act accordingly.
Dr Kailash Chand, Manchester,
Being an Indian expat, I will say this that the vast majority of my fellow countrymen are now getting sick and tired of the communist parties in India (if they weren't already, that is).
They are filled with hypocritical people that oppose liberal economics and globalization at the federal level while cunningly implementing the same in the one state (Bengal) where they hold the most sway. Talk about eating the pie and having it too...Our PM is an honest, decent and intelligent man. If these vultures bring his government down it would be bad karma for them.
Rakesh C., Mumbai/elsewhere,
Yes, indeed, there is considerable "sound and fury" in India, over the nuclear deal. But before linking this with "stability" and "reform" in India, Ms.Maddox needs to get used to the ways of India's politics and politicians. Rumbustious, highly voluble, dire statements, often fizzle out, reminding one of the old adage about "barking dogs that rarely bite". A former Delhi correspondent of The Times in the 1960s got into the habit of predicting India's collapse as a nation, after every major rowdy demonstration in India or other events of political bluster. But the end he predicted never came. Reams of his analysis (Ms. Maddox is fond of "reams of historical analysis", we know) and articles containing these predictions may be found in Times' Archives, gathering dust. Despite centuries of familiarity with India, I am surprised the British media have not, barring exceptionally thoughtful individuals, such as Mr.Mark Tulley, grasped the Indian national characteristics all that well.
Kris iyer, Wellington, Newzealand.