Bronwen Maddox: World Briefing
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There is no foreign country that matters more to Iran than Iraq (except perhaps the US). The puzzle is why the US imagines that Iranian involvement in Iraq will melt away if it protests angrily.
Yesterday’s skirmish, in which the US arrested eight Iranians in Baghdad and then let them go after consulting the Iraqi Government, was trivial and irrelevant to the broader clash between the two countries. However, it is another small sign that Iraq’s Shia-led Government is prepared to side with Tehran against the US, if only to avoid antagonism.
There is no reason – although Tehran may not need one – to connect the incident with President Bush’s speech the previous night, in which he declared that Iran’s nuclear ambitions put the region “under the shadow of a nuclear holocaust”. He added that “Iran has long been a source of trouble in the region”, that “the US is rallying friends and allies around the world to isolate the regime” and that “I have authorised our military commanders in Iraq to confront Tehran’s murderous activities”.
His speech, to military veterans in Nevada, came only hours after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iran President, said that the power of the US was collapsing rapidly in Iraq and that Tehran was ready to step in to help to fill the vacuum.
From the moment that Saddam Hussein fell four years ago, Iran has tried to exert its influence over the country. Iraq, with its Shia majority, is a natural ally for the almost entirely Shia Iran. All that is new is that Iran’s President is prepared to express his interest so openly. It is no surprise that he is unbothered by provoking the US; it matters more that he now appears indifferent to whether he offends Iraq’s Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki, and other Shia leaders in Iraq.
The US, and Britain in the south, have placed some hope on the Iraqis’ sense of national independence, and irritation at Iranian involvement, in keeping Iran at bay. Those are real factors, but they have been matched by the effort and money that Iran has devoted to building ties, particularly in the south.
The US’s best hope of curbing Iranian influence remains Iraqis themselves, but it is a fragile one. For the local militias and factions jostling for the upper hand, Iranian support is potentially decisive. The US might better focus its efforts on the nuclear question, where its call for international support, and for tighter sanctions, has had some success. This week Nicolas Sarkozy, France’s new President, said that failure to pursue tougher sanctions would present the world with “an alternative that I can only call catastrophic: an Iranian bomb or the bombing of Iran”. Tehran has insisted that its intentions in acquiring nuclear technology are peaceful, but its 20-year record of deception, and continued obstruction of United Nations inspectors, has left the world disbelieving. For all its defiance in edging forward with its work, it has appeared sensitive to the penalties imposed by the UN Security Council. That has given the US, Britain and France, those calling for tighter sanctions, some hope of a deterrent effect.
Britain has differed from the US in being prepared to talk to Iran about Afghanistan and their shared aim of stopping the opium trade.
Bush’s speech raised the stakes by uniting all Iran’s offences into one overarching justification for its hostility. That may play a useful part in the diplomatic mixture, by lobbing an undefined threat of aggression in Iran’s direction. But, so far, the talks which have worked best have separated the points of dispute – from Afghanistan, where Iran is helpful to the West, to the nuclear front, where it appears, just possibly, open to persuasion, and to Iraq, where its interests lie too deep for it ever to be on the US side.
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Mainstream media reported that on 10th September 2001, Omar Sheikh cabled $100,000 to Mohamed Atta, on behalf of General Mahmoud Ahmed, the [now-former] head of Pakistanâs ISI (Inter Services Intelligence). Ahmed was in Washington at the time of the 9/11 attacks. He returned to Pakistan on 14th September 2001.
Did everybody 'forget' to request issue of an Interpol arrest warrant or red notice against Ahmed ?
Paul Medhurst, Vienna, Austria
"Iraq, with its Shia majority, is a natural ally for the almost entirely Shia Iran"
Except for the fact that Iraq is predominantly Arab and Iran is not an Arab country.
Perry Stalsis, Toronto,
Would Ms. Maddox care to elaborate on Iran's 20 year record of deception. What does she have to say about the great deception perpetrated on the millions of people all over the world, especially the people of the UK and the USA by the governments of both the countries by going in to look for weapons of mass destruction. Where are these weapons?
Moreover, why does the US not do anything about Saudi Arabia? Quite a few of the hijackers of 9/11 had Saudi nationality, Al-Qaeda started in Saudi Arabia, most of the madressahs are financed by Saudis. Lets just call a spade a spade and say that the objective is control of the world's oil and nothing else.
Javaid, Karachi, Pakistan
Re John. Bombing Iran may be a mistake. Interdicting the supplies of weapons is not not. Anything that comes from Iran to Iraq should be blasted.
Desmond Taylor, Houston, USA Tx
I think Akram has been watching the 'un-news.' Do a quick search and you can see that Iran is currently being lauded by the IAEA for being more cooperative, but they are still producing uranium and much of their program is shrouded in secrecy.
While I do not challenge that Iran might have support from many countries on this matter, I would not call it worldwide. As a matter of fact, I would challenge you to find any country in their own region outside of Syria that would support a nuclear Iran (especially Saudi Arabia - who does
The writer I felt was quite balanced in the story. He showed both the good and the bad about the situation. Your obviously misinformed and skewed view on this situation has clouded your ability to see the situation clearly. I am sure that there will not be a war over Iran, so dont get your hopes up too high:)
Dave, Dubai, UAE
The question is: How much amenable is the current US administration?
Mehdi, Tehran, Iran
Either there is something that no one in the world knows about except for the people in the White House and perhaps at number 10 Downing St. or these people (US and UK leaders) are on some sort of a mental trip.
Yes, they may be able to do a lot of damage and kill a lot of Iranians by their superior military but, they will start something they are unable to finish for certain. The whole world has become tired of the US being the bully of the world.
The American middle class, as always, is and will be the real victim of all these ultimately. How about health insurance coverage for everyone? How about fixing the thousands of dilapidated bridges? How about fixing the millions of potholes in the roads all over the US? How about caring for your elderly? How about providing a superior education for your children who are falling behind and will have, one day, to look for a decent job outside the US? Why don't you bomb your domestic problems first? Mr. Bush, you should be tried for treason.
Saul Inmann, Toronto, Canada
"but its 20-year record of deception, and continued obstruction of United Nations inspectors, has left the world disbelieving."
Where is this 'world' that you are referring to? As far as I know, the only people who truly believe without doubt that the Iranians are a threat to the world, are the Americans.
If anything, after the lies and deceit from Iraq, the world doubts the American president and his lap dog CNN.
Pete, Cov,
John of London has it right, but if my understanding is correct and according to the War Powers Act, Mr. Bush has the right to start any new war he may choose, and only after 90 days must he come to Congress and seek approval and authorization to continue. A massive bombing campaign in Iran would most certainly turn out the lights on the situation in the middle east, not to mention the world economy. My thought is that the most realistic chance to block this would be for PM Brown to come out clearly and strongly against it. God help us if he does not.
Tarquinis, Seattle, USA
If the US and the UK which are thousands of Kilometers are worried about Iraq to the extent that they can evcen engage on an illegal war, what about a country that shares a border! The moment you meddle in other peoples' affairs, you open the door for the same to meddle into yours. Just wait when Iran plants her misiles in Cuba!
Goldman, London, UK
In addition to deep links in the South, Iran has also supplied arms to the Kurds and has established strong trade links with the Kurds. Improving Iraq needs Iranian cooperation - the delinking that is necessary is because the West shouldnt water down certain demands re: the Iranian nuclear programme in return for cooperation in Iraq - but something to gain that cooperation is needed or else Iraq will sink even further. Less belligerence from the US is probably useful - and also not insisting on dealing with the nuclear issue in Bush's term - after 2009, Iran will likely be more amenable. The Iranian hardliners are acting aggressively because they have lost support from so many domestic stakeholders - they are weak.
This state of affairs is an indictment of the Iraq war as a policy - unless Iran also suffered regime change, toppling Saddam by war would always leave the country wide open to Iran - and regime change in Iran was always a farcically unrealistic policy.
FA, London,
"There is no reason â although Tehran may not need one â to connect the incident with President Bushâs speech the previous night, in which he declared that Iranâs nuclear ambitions put the region âunder the shadow of a nuclear holocaustâ. Well being a bit of an insomniac and listening to the radio all night I can tell you that the arrests took place one hour after the speech finished, not the next day. I would say that it is naive in the extreme not to see a connection between the speech and the arrests.
Jay Cee, Brussels,
The Iranians are a lot more rational than what the US administration is trying to convince the world. I believe we can deal with them, should we really want to. However, I don't think that is what our president wants. All I can say is that by attacking Iran, we will open a can of worms and we will not be able to put the lid back on again. I hope someone in Washington thinks hard about this. We should be very concerned with a much bigger threat to the world looming over the horizon in Pakistan. There are troubles brewing there bad enough that we will need help from the Iranians once again.
James Narayan, San Francisco, USA
President Bush is a mad man, after losing in Iraq. Now he blames Iran for his failures.
Munna, London, UK.
"Iraq, with its Shia majority, is a natural ally for the almost entirely Shia Iran"
Except for the fact that Iraq is predominantly Arab and Iran is not.
Perry Stalsis, Toronto,
US should stop behaving like world's policeman. That is making things worse. I think that if the US continues to makes these type of threatening speeches towards Iran, then surely as a sovereign nation, Iranians will be in their moral and international right to make nuclear weapons to defend themselves against any foreign attack. If Iran ever produces Atomic bombs then the blame for this will lie with American Government. Washington's threatning behaviour is pushing Iran to go down the nuclear path.
Z. Hussain, Rochdale, UK
So apart from the post-1991 abandonment of the Marsh Arabs of the south (Shias), the independence (and subsequent loss of oil-revenue) of Kuwait (twice), and past history of oppression against the Kurds (Bomber Harris cut his eye-teeth on them before plastering German cities), what have they got against us?
In the west we prize democracy, but in other places they prefer the simpler things in life, like not having their children blown up on the way to school or their wives slaughtered whilst trying to do the shopping. They don't really care who isn't shooting at them as long as it's no-one.
KR, Stockport,
The puzzle is why anyone would think that Bush's denunciations of alleged Iranian involvement in Iraq are actually aimed at Iran. They are clearly propaganda missiles aimed at the world public, like the "Iraqi WMD" hysteria, whose purpose is to facilitate another criminal war of aggression.
Richard Cheeseman, Wellington, New Zealand
To say " 20-year record of deception, and continued obstruction of United Nations inspectors, has left the world disbelieving" just shows the bias of the author.
Iran has actaully received a clean bill of health from the IAEA, and in fact has more support worldwide than the US on this matter. Not even US allies like Saudi Arabia or Jordan believe the US version. All the US has done is made allegations without a shred of evidence, much like the Iraqi WMD.
The US military and the CIA have both concurred they are unable to stop Iran militarily, so Bush is reduced to making empty threats. He can try to attack Iran, but it is the US which will come off worse (according the US military and the CIA)
akram, London,
Why has USA more right to interfere in Iraq than Iran, Syria, Jordan or Saudi arabia for example. it is about time USA left the region after so much killing rather than impose it's own brand of democracy. it failed in chile, vietnam, somalia
Aéjaz, salford,
Bombing Iran its big big mistake . We dont need more dead people and more blood
JOhn, London, England