Bronwen Maddox: World Briefing
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Pervez Musharraf made his first sensible move for three days in suggesting that parliamentary elections might go ahead as planned in January.
That may be a sign that he is listening to the appalled reaction, at home and abroad, to his state of emergency. But Britain and the US, the countries best placed to make that case, have very few levers to pull, officials quietly acknowledge, unless they want to ditch Musharraf as President – and at this point, they don’t.
Their reflex in favour of the devil they know is justifiable provided that Musharraf brings Pakistan immediately back to the schedule for elections. But the status quo is not stable; the past three days are the unsurprising climax to the crises of the past six months.
Pakistan has often shown an impressive self-righting ability after crisis. But Musharraf’s actions are a gift to the militants and, however risky, the mantra of recent US policy appears right: democracy is the only good answer.
Yesterday Musharraf appeared to offer a half-concession, as Malik Qayyum, his Attorney-General, said that “it has been decided there would be no delay in the election”. He added that national and provincial assemblies would be dissolved by November 15 and that elections would be held within 60 days.
But this contradicted the earlier view of Shaukat Aziz, the Prime Minister, that elections were likely to be put off by a year or two. Yesterday Aziz still left room for a delay, saying that “the next general elections will be held according to the schedule or a programme that will be finalised after consultation with all the stakeholders”.
Aziz, a smooth former Citibanker, and a technocrat brought in by Musharraf to reassure investors, should win a prize for evasive vocabulary; by his ludicrous use of “stakeholder”, he cannot mean the heads of the main political parties, or the seven justices (of 11) of the Supreme Court whom Musharraf sacked on Saturday, never mind the 165 million people of Pakistan.
Musharraf, in meeting foreign ambassadors yesterday, also tried to strike a conciliatory tone. State-run television reported him as telling them: “I’m determined to remove my uniform once we correct these pillars in the judiciary and the executive and the parliament.” By “correcting the judiciary”, he seems to mean removing the majority on the Supreme Court that were likely to say this week that his carefully choreographed reelection last month was unconstitutional.
It is in character for Musharraf, after striking out inappropriately, to try to pretend that it is business as usual. But it isn’t. He has almost no support left, even in the Army, although so far, it is following his orders. He dismissed rumours that officers had put him under house arrest as “a joke of the highest order”. But if protests grow, officers may not want to suppress them; the Army is already unpopular and demoralised after killing militants in the tribal areas (and losing 1,000 men in the process). Soldiers say that they no longer like wearing uniforms in public.
Britain and the US said yesterday that they had no plans to cut back aid for fear of depriving regions desperately in need of help. In the US, however, in an election year, Congress will have plenty to say and may try to force cuts under laws curbing aid to governments that have carried out coups. In 2001 President Bush secured an exception for Pakistan on the grounds that it was helping in the War on Terror and Musharraf had promised elections. But if that prospect fades, so may US cash.
The US has also been trying quietly to strengthen ties with Afghanistan’s neighbours, partly as protection for its military supply routes if turmoil in Pakistan gets worse. Admiral William Fallon, head of US Central Command, was in Kyrgyzstan on Monday.
The US and Britain may also try to lever Nawaz Sharif, the exiled leader of the Pakistan Muslim League, one of the two big parties, back into politics. Yesterday his brother, Shahbaz, said that Nawaz, now in Saudi Arabia, hoped to return to London soon and that he might even resurrect an alliance with Benazir Bhutto, leader of the rival Pakistan People’s Party. The US and Britain can signal their approval for these steps. But their influence is slim, given that they have backed a military leader, a hot-headed one at that, and even after six months of serious misjudgments, still prefer him to the unknown.
— Additional reporting: Hattie Garlick
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I think that its useless to blame Musharraf for abusing power as even the so-called democratic leaders like Benazir and Nawaz Sharif have been guilty of same dictatorial ambitions. Its the curse of all Pakistani rulers because the people are not educated or aware enough to come up with credible leadership from their ranks. I think we should leave things to take their natural course in Pakistan and with time people will learn to select good leaders. Until then undue political pressure will only exacerbate political tensions and ruin public peace in Pakistani society. Let Musharraf enjoy his day until some acceptable leader comes from the amongst the educated middle classes to steer Pakistan in right direction. But until then we are better off without tested and failed 'leadership' of Benazir or Sharif as they represent the same ruling elite or clique oppressing Pakistani people and making fools of them in name of democracy and rule of 'law'.
meher, Islamabad, Pakistan
to the people like ABID who think that economic situation has anything to do with BUSHARRAF and his policies they are mistaken only 1 billion dollars plus aid bby US and 1 billion and easy loans from it's allies have done the trick, from 1999 to 2002 country was struggling, add to that selling of all Country assets did bring some connected people lots of benefits, go to the cities and find out that how many poor have been created. Prostitution does bring lots of money but it has never brought honour. Punjab's army has sucked the blood out of Pakistan, they will keep on doing so with supporters like ABID, Punjab's armmy gave EAST PAKISTAN AWAY, BROUGHT 3 wars to the country plus this current DICTATOR brought the country KARGIL and almost another war, now the security is BAD CRIME is way out of control, only safe place is DEFENCE HOUSING SOCIETIES. In 1984 we lost SACHIAN GLACIER also another dictator was ruling. people of PAKISTAN should remember it is PUNJAB's ARMY not PAkistan's.
khalid, USA,
Mad-Dog Maddox, in a style that is, essentially, superbly British, paints over and ignores the thousands of missing, tortured and murdered inmates of Pakistan's ISI - "disappeared" at the behest of British and US intelligence. The regime Musharraf is trying to impose has all the elements of apartheid's repressive measures during its final state of emergency. Of course, a close examination of Pakistan's and apartheid South Africa's emergency regulations will show that they've been copied almost verbatim from Britain's Internal Security Act. It's no surprise, during Ireland's occupation that British courts were unable to find anything wrong with London's repressive measures there. A million died in 1846 from starvation and England yawned, similar numbers died in ensuing decades and "the Lords" nodded off to sleep in their clubs. And now Blighty dozes on in well-fed contentment, knowing their cronies around the world are working zealously to butcher anyone who might undo the status quo.
Alameen, Lenasia, South Africa
I knew someone was going to blame the US for this. The US has held the position for a long time that a state of emergency was a bad idea and we've been opposed to Musharraf doing this. Don't blame this one on us. It's all his doing.
Brian, Syracuse, USA
The naivete of US imperialist power as it has been wielded in South Asia for the past thirty years is now probably apparent to everyone other than the US itself. From Jimmy Carter through the present ignoramus a succession of US administrations has encouraged the Pakistani military as they built nuclear weapons, allowed the country to become a haven for far-right extremists and installed the current dictatorship. All in the name of short-term political gains and corporate profits. So now the present powder keg.
ray greenwood, Charleston, West Virginia, USA
Nations formed as homelands for religious groups do not have much of a future. The problem is not with Musharaff. The problem is that Pakistan doesn nit have a raison' d'etre.
Kara Swart, London, UK
Perhaps with all the wishful thinking or thinkful wishing it was easy to miss what now appears to have hidden in plain sight. Gen Mush has never had and still has no interest in dealing with "militants", the Pakistan military has no stomach for dealing with their 'militant' comrades/cousins....the 'militants' and the army are two faces of the same coin, part and parcel. Gen. Mush plays Dr Jeckyll and Mr. Hyde very well indeed. This is the truth the Purrvez cat does not want brought to light just yet. Did W. and Cheney, Rummy and Wolfie, Johnny and Condi ever realize that they really were keeping their real enemy closer? God speed Benazir, here's hoping her step is still nimble enough....
Linda Dial, Calgary, Canada
I thought he was complaining about judicial interference and activism (read 'independent'' judiciary) and militant religious extremists. But here he is arresting human rights workers, including Salima Hashmi, Asma Jehangir, I. M>Rehman and others, most of whom, secular, democratic and liberal (though opposed to continued military rule and Emergency), suspending Constitution, muzzling the media, etc.
Having cast its lot with him, US have very limited options, and can not go the Netherlands' way and freeze aid to Pakistan.
What kind of elections can be held, in January or a year from now, under the Emergency rule ? Democratic parties, including Bhutto's, can not really participate in such a farce and still beat the drum for democracy. I don't think Bhutto has any credibility left, having again indicated a willingness to look for a power-sharing deal. She is interested most in herself, not democracy or the country.
Zafar Iqbal, Chicago, IL, USA
ALLAH,ARMY,AMERICA . America has got the biggest clout in Pakistan. It has threatened Iran which may have 2 kg enriched Uranium in 2020 while 200 kg uranium is in the hands of Musharaff and he has an army which is deserting. US is slowly discovering that Pakistani army can rape Bengalies,kahmiries,sindhies but will show its tail when faced with pathans or punjabies.
captainjohann, Bangalore, India
I beg to the cilicl socities of the world to help Pakistan people to build the independent juduciary, and democratic institutions, and to get rid of the corrupt genrals of Pakistan army who sponsor terrorism, in order to blackmail civil societies, stand with the nation not with few corroupt, generals who are liar, liar and liar. Be with civill society of Pakistan, stand with right not with migh, uphold the values of the democracy not the values of an indiot dictator. I feel shame telling someone that I am from Pakistan, I respect Our nieghbours for them to be proud of thier national identity.
Just compare India with Pakistan, the difference is army never destroyed India, whereas India should worry about Pakistan, Pakistan army is destroying Pakistan, world must get hold of AQKhan in oder to find out how many Pkaistan army generals are involved in nuclear sale.
Stand with democratic forces, and civil society of pakistan then it will be possible to get rid of terrorism and mother of te
shahid, London, UK
just holding elections will not achieve anything.we want the judges he sacked back in the supreme court.and we want free media without his "code of conduct" imposed on them.and we will not sit down until we achieve this.
hassan, lahore,
If things continue the way they are Musharaf's hold on the armed ofrces can't be expected to last . What then ? Who will fight the war against terror ? Hamaden is right. Musharaf has to be guided into the right direction by a superior force. That force cannot be the present USA adminitration which itself confused and insincere. They have mismanaged the fight against Al- Qaeda in Afghanistan. Left to much to Musharaf and allowed him to blackmail the world into extending his franchise. Then before Al Qaeda was licked they got into the mess of Iraq. After 6 years , Al Qaeda & the Taliban have grown stronger and Musharaf more indispensable in the war against terror while the USA is inceasingly unpopular for its support of Musharaf.. It will take a much more competent US administration to figure this out..
Arshad
Arshad Ahmed, Karachi, Pakistan
If the West wants to retain any influence in Pakistan, they will have to wake up and realize that they are backing the wrong horse in Musharraf. He has lost all respect, credibility and support, even amongst the educated moderate elite. His latest action of declaring an "Emergency" reflects his dictatorial bent rather than his oft repeated "Mantra" of being a "Moderate". HE IS THE PROBLEM AND NOT THE SOLUTION.
Husain, G. Pakistan
G. Husain, Islamabad, Pakistan
Sorry but Britain as one of the countries best placed to speak to Musharraf ? There are three that have significant leverage in Pakistan. These are in order of priority : the US, Saudi Arabia (like it or not) and China (perhaps more so than the West would like to admit).
Britain is a bit player that also ran....!
A. Khan, Islambad, Pakistan
Pakistan: Baghdad now, Iran in future
I came back to work in Pakistan last year, after spending all my professional life in Great Britian. The CJ of Pakistan Iftikhar Chaudhry is the only hope Pakistan has for a lawful society. It is very obvious to them that the emergency was declared so that Mush can get rid of him. I have always been a great admirer of the USA, for her values of liberty and freedom. I am however disappointed with the US response and their lack of concern and misjudgement in this matter. I wish and hope and pray am not wrong, but it seems that in Pakistan US is going to repeat the experience of Iran, where people became so fed up with the US support of their ruthless dictator that they threw him away and developed a hatered for the US which has run for a few generations. Pakistan is worst than Baghdad today and my fear is that it will turn out to be another Iran.
farooq naeem, Rahim Yar Khan, Pakistan
It's all a Paradox. Musharaf is a moderate that is taking a hard line. He wants to bring order to the chaos regardless of who is creating it. This results in him looking like a dictator. It is because a Dictator is what he is.
Come on Mush, you've brought Pakistan prosperity over the last 8 years. You can do better. Take off the Uniform and set the country right the way it should be. Pakistan has too many Chiefs and they are bound to come after you if you don't
Abid, Shipley, UK
Anything resembling "Rational" action from Musharraf,comes only when forced to do so by USA.Otherwise all rational actions are taken to imply strengthening his power,regardless of how and how illegal and at what cost,as has been shown by his previous actions.So to give him credit for those reasonable actions,is not right,as he was forced into those.At the same time he will promise anything,fully knowing that he has no intention of honouring those promises.He has only one agenda to keep himself in power and rest follows from there,the perks of the army Generals,joining ranks of corrupt politicians in his cabinet.He,like all other Pak dictators,has the delusions that he has beensent by Allah to tackle this job and he is the only one who can do it.This is the same disease which strikes all Pak Generals,as they surround themselves with sycophants.Pakistan is full of such people and they leave the moment the person falls.Same will happen to Musharraf.
zaman, hamden, usa