Bronwen Maddox, World Briefing
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Oil at nearly $100 a barrel cannot keep Mahmoud Ahmadinejad safe in the presidency of Iran for ever. Finally, it seems as if his breathtaking economic mismanagement, squandering an unprecedented bonanza, may prise him from office.
His critics have been predicting from his election in June 2005 that his wilful ignorance of economics would lead to his downfall. They have been wrong so far because of oil prices even higher than expected; a still-deep hunger among the very poor for Ahmadinejad's message; and his fortuitously successful handling of the nuclear dispute with the West.
The parliamentary elections in March will be the best test of his support — and of whether clerics and other leading figures now want to turf him out. No successor is likely to be as amenable as the West wants on the nuclear front but even if Iranians find that standoff a source of national pride they may now reckon that they can pick someone better.
When he became President, oil was $60 a barrel; recently, it has been almost two thirds as much again. Few presidents have been so lucky. But as Ali Ansari, an academic specialising in Iran, argues in a subtle report for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, that was a blessing for Iran, forcing its leaders to be innovative and financially cautious. “One of the reasons why the Islamic Republic had been able to weather political storms ... had been that the management of the economy had ... been conservative and cautious. Particular care was taken with predicting the price of oil.”
Ahmadinejad, with his peculiar and literal belief that he has divine backing, was not inhibited by this record of prudence. With a total oil revenue in the first two years of his presidency of $120 billion (£61billion) — more than Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani had in his eight years as President — the administration still found it necessary to deplete the emergency oil reserve fund set up by Ahmadinejad's presidential predecessor, Mohammed Khatami. According to the Iranian central bank he took $35.3 billion from the fund in his first year and $43 billion in his second year, as a new book, Ahmadinejad, by Kasra Naji, records.
Nor is it easy to work out what Ahmadinejad has spent it on, because he has channelled much of it through religious foundations and to contracts of his own nomination rather than leaving it under the control of ministers and elected parliamentarians. But the predictable result of the spending was inflation, rising from 12 to 19 per cent. Many were put out of work by his sudden decision to raise the minimum wage by nearly half. The climax of this spectacle was the petrol rationing announced so suddenly on June 27, 2007, that motorists could not complete their journeys. For the fourth-largest exporter of oil in the world, that is a humiliation. In the run-up to the March elections to the parliament, the Majlis, there have been signs of a rift between Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme religious leader. The President's critics, once silenced, are now allowed full voice. MPs say openly that the real jobless figure is near 20, not 10, per cent.
Ahmadinejad believes that he was put in the presidency by divine will; critics believe that he will be removed from it by economics. Their prophecy has not yet come true but there is good reason why it might.
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Stand back and watch, George W Bumbler will find a way to polish up Ahmadinejad's charisma and secure his political career just in time for the March election.
Tommy Shelby, Dallas, Texas
Just For you Joe,
to "turf someone out", means, to throw them out or kick them out, their presence is no longer required and they will be removed.
Paul, Farnborough,
What was he spending that money on? Ummmm.... perhaps that nuclear program that "doesn't exist"? How else do you explain missing billions, unless Mr. A. has taken a cue from the 3rd world dictator playbook and stashed a few billion in Swiss accounts.
Jay, Terre Haute, Indiana/USA
"Iran needs to wake up before it becomes a religious/military dictatorship."
I'm very sorry to have to tell you this, but Iran has been a religious/military dictatorship since April 1, 1979.
D Sinope, New York, NY, US
I realize that I am an illiterate American not up on all my "britishisms" but would some please translate this phrase from the article: "and of whether clerics and other leading figures now want to turf him out"? What does it mean to "turf" someone out?
Thanks.
Otherwise interesting information.
joe kaplan, Saluda, NC/USA
"$120 billion (£61billion)"
In the early part of his presidency the dollar was worth rather more than it is now, and so it's actually more than 61 billion pounds.
Of course if the oil price looks to be slipping then pinch a few boats or mess about with a few US warships and presto, nice safe oil price.
JonB, Glasgow, UK
This is a good article about Iran situation.
I don't agree with Famillian, ahmadinejad has elected by poeple but election in iran is not so free like western countries.
perhaps at now the poor don't like ahmadinejad but they voted him in election 3 years ago.
hamed, tehran, iran
Uh, Casper: "America is bankrupt?" From where did you oBtain this startling assessment?
Where are your loyalties to be found? You label a negative article about a dangerous leader who leads his people in "death to America" chants an "Iran his piece." You love Ahmadinejad and Iran? Go there.
Ted Apple, Long Branch, NJ
George Bush specifically, never, never, never said that he was put into power by God. When asked that question after the 2000 election by a reporter, he said that he did not think that God specifically chose any person as president. However, he seems to clearly think that God historically has used America to stand up to totalitarian evil and has intended it to bring a blessing of freedom to all the world. That idea was echoed by Lincoln in a number of his speeches and sayings. If that's a conservative, US Republican thing, then so be it. I wish it was held more in Europe.
David Bliss, Pasadena, CA, USA
"George Bush says that he was put into power by God, and God knows his policies have bankrupted America.
Why didn't the writer mention that in her Iran hit piece?"
Casper, perhaps it's because this is a piece about Iran and not George Bush?
Robin Laundon, London, UK
When you feel you have a divine mandate, you have delusions of grandeur. End of. That goes for Bush as well. Look at the assorted "millennial" crazes throughout history, they all ended in tears, no matter what religion they originated in: It's human presumption and self-deification.
Julia Iskandar, London, England
George Bush says that he was put into power by God, and God knows his policies have bankrupted America.
Why didn't the writer mention that in her Iran hit piece?
Casper Wlesowski, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
why does one is compeled to write about irananian politics when one does not know the first thing about iran.iranian presidents are not elected but selected.
iranian presidents do not run the country but the high ranking mullas do.
the iranian people as a whole do not support it,s nuclear programe.
the poor are the biggest enemy of ahmadinezhad.
you want more?
familian, babol, iran
Iran's economy and natural resources have been mismanaged since 1979. The current regime is rotten to the core and totally unaccountable to the nation. It does not matter whether Ahmadinejat, Khatami, Rafsanjani or any other regime crony is selected to be elected.
The process, structure, system, lack of skills and fixation with fighting with the great satan ( USA )coupled with total disregard for accountability and responsible behaviour is at the very core of the regime's failures. Until there is a strategic change of direction, no operational changes will solve Iran's problems. The regime and it's cronies need to be removed from power. Peacefully, they will not go and this is eched in their mind set. Hence, the only option is forecful removal. Preferably from within the country, but do not underestimate the crafty Mullah's. Sanctions are just an ineffective tool that keeps the regime afloat whilst ordinary Iranians suffer. Japan and China should be forced not to buy Iranian oil.
Bahram, LOndon, UK
Follow the money and you will find most of it went to the Revolutionary Guard. The country was getting ready for war with America. Now that this danger has passed Iran needs to wake up before it becomes a religious/military dictatorship.
Cyrus The Great, Tehran, Iran