Bronwen Maddox, World Briefing
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Afghanistan risks becoming “the forgotten war” and a failed state beyond retrieval because of deteriorating international support and a growing violent insurgency, according to a distinguished independent panel in the US.
Yesterday's warning, from a study chaired by the retired US Marine Corps General James Jones and Thomas Pickering, the former US Ambassador to the United Nations, will strike home in Washington because of the eminence of the authors and the timing. Congress is casting a keen eye over spending in Iraq and Afghanistan, and in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, which will look at the report today, Democrats may seize on evidence of misjudgment in Afghanistan to score points.
The study is welcome for introducing a sharp note of anxiety into the US debate on Afghanistan, which was eclipsed by Iraq until recent gibes at coalition partners by Robert Gates, the Secretary of Defence, reminded Washington of the stakes. The report is important for its blunt argument that Afghanistan could be a tougher task than Iraq and that it is difficult to set expectations too low.
Even so, Jones and Pickering overstate their case, giving too little credit to the military progress of recent months. They also give too little attention to the problems posed by officials appointed by President Hamid Karzai, and place too much faith on more troops and money to solve the problems.
They are right to say that support for the conflict in coalition countries is wavering. A recent report to the Canadian Parliament was striking for its resentment that the US had not always appreciated the role of its forces, which were involved in some of the fiercest fighting.
Yet about half the civil aid budget comes from the US, three quarters of the military contribution and 85per cent of the air power. Tension is unsurprising because the US feels that the allies could do more. Gates said yesterday that he agreed with the argument that more troops were needed, “but certainly not ours”.
The report's view that more troops and aid are needed skates over the lack of structures to use more resources. It invokes the reliable shock of the narcotics figures but sidesteps the corruption and criminality in Kabul and local government. President Karzai, not himself criticised, is said to have been irked by reports on this theme when he turned down Lord Ashdown of Norton-sub-Hamdon as UN envoy. Yet the criticism of such officials still stands. Karzai was always likely to find the Ashdown appointment threatening, because of his high profile and lack of experience in Afghanistan. The front-runners now appear to be the Norwegian diplomat Kai Eide, former UN Special Envoy to Kosovo, and Hikmet Cetin, the former Turkish Foreign Minister. Britain will not now put up General Sir John McColl, Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe.
The picture that emerges from Kabul is that Karzai is terrifyingly vulnerable: barricaded into the palace, reminiscing about his stay with the Prince of Wales that gave him the freedom to walk a mile; and preoccupied with next year's elections. Donors may not have allowed enough troops and aid to counter the problems; they have certainly not allowed enough time.
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As far as time is concerned the Death Bill for our troops in Afghanistan has been up and running since the early 1800's. This interspersed with brief alliances continued over the years until Good Queen Victoria saw the light towards the end of her reign and withdrew the majority of British personnel. Take a walk around any of our Cathedrals or Minsters where you will see numerous dedications to the many who fell in Afghanistan for nought but Political miscalculation.
Robert El-Cid., Hull., East Yorks.,
Why is the West so impotent in dealing with the endemic corruption in government in Afghanistan? Enormous amount of money seems to disappear into a black hole, money which could be used to improve the safety of the troops in combat.
Look at it in another way, the solders are paying for this with their lives.
V Tan, London,
The extremely long history of fierce conflict in this region should be a warning of the risks of involvement.
Whilst many apparently sound reasons for intervention by outsiders may be invoked, (and have been over the centuries) simply feeding historic belligerence with low prospect of permanent resolution can sometimes seem to lack urgent priority.
The geography of the region might assist border operations to contain and isolate insurgency as an alternative plan.
dr venables preller, Warminster, UK
As we all know but seem to have forgotten, is that there were NO Taliban involved in the 9/11 reason given for the war. Almost ALL the conspirators were Saudis trained to fight the Russians by tghe USA. Iraq had NOTHING to do with the so called"War on Terror". No Iraquis were involved in 9/11 and Al Quaida did not exist in Iraq until AFTER the US invasion. Neither of these wars therefore has defensive credibility in the public mind outside the USA. Quite the reverse. Maybe this accounts for the unwillingness to commit more troops.
kunjani, Suffolk, England
Only now are the Americans and NATO coming to realise the utter futility of the fight in Afghanistan. They should've listened to Pakistan after 9/11, when they said emphatically that there would be no military victory. Instead a wounded and humiliated America lashed out in anger, because its leader did not have the maturity to understand the way the world works.
As for carpet bombing as a way out of problem, it didn't work for the Soviets, rather it created more Mujahideen.
This project was doomed from the start, thousands of us demonstrated in London to this effect, but Blair thought he knew best. One more cock-up to add to his legacy.
Akram, London,
Had America's Moron in Chief, George Bush kept his priorities straight and not invaded Iraq perhaps the situation in Afghanistan would not be so dire. Afghanistan was ground zero in the war on terror
but Bush's stupidity allowed the bad guys to escape Pakistan where they are thriving and remain out of reach.
Bruce Northwood, Washington, D.C. , USA
Anyone who has spoken with an Afghan will have been given the list of countries that have tried without success to dominate their country.
Without doubt anyone attempting to take over their country and tell them how they must run it will have every "Very Important Commander" turned against him. The only way to unite Afghans is to come from the outside. Once the outsider has been driven off they will return to fighting eachother.
There are situations that can be improved, and others that don't wish to be. This is a no-win situation for the West and we should accept that, and spend our money and our soldiers' blood elsewhere.
M Clement Hakk, Guelph, Ontario Canada
Increased Turkish committments? Yes!
No name, No place,
This is a classical example of groping in the dark or blind people explaining an elephant!
If fighting war on terror is more important, then the US and allies need to focus more in Afghanistan. So troops can be diverted from Iraq to Afghanistan. However, if oil and interests of Saudi Arabia are more important then Iraq gets precedence.
Certainly, more troops will be required. Here also the US will have to take the lead and others will not commit more troops as they think that it will be difficult to win in Afghanistan. There have to be carpet-bombing of Taleban areas in Afghanistan and Pakistan. If US and Nato forces go by rule books on Pakistan, it will be wasting time.
Pouring more money as aid is just waste and will go into pockets. Instead that money can be used to win ââhearts and mindsââ of tribal leaders and it will be more effective. Actions should be immediate without too many ifs and buts!
Regards,
Krishna R. Kumar, Udupi, India