Brownwen Maddox: World Briefing
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The prospect should be unthinkable, but polls suggest that Italians may pick Silvio Berlusconi for a third stint as prime minister in their quest for a government.
Leave aside the conflict of interest with his media and business empire, and his amendment, while in office, of laws on penal justice that helped him to sidestep charges of false accounting. Leave aside, too, for a moment, his reform of the electoral laws that has returned Italy to the days of splintering governments that cannot withstand the strain of difficult decisions for much more than a year.
But even considering his record in office, there is not enough to warrant a return. If people want to attempt a justification, they point to two slivers of reform on pensions and employment. That is all they can do, because there are no other cases where Berlusconi clearly acted for Italy's benefit rather than his own. It is true that he managed to push through a reform of Italy's costly pensions, raising the retirement age from 57 to 60, to come into action this year. The reform, known as the Maroni law, aimed to curb costs that eat up more than 15 per cent of gross domestic product.
It is also true that Romano Prodi, who has just resigned after losing a confidence vote, watered this down, delaying its effect for three years. This appears to be a backwards step - except that the Berlusconi “reform” was never solid. In drawing up the law he kicked its start into the next term, knowing that a new government would have to reaffirm its support and would almost certainly fail. Prodi's “delay” is the same tactic that Berlusconi used: postponing a measure for which any appearance of consensus was an illusion.
Berlusconi's second reform, the “Biagi law”, allowed employers to offer more flexible contracts. It was named after Professor Marco Biagi, killed in 2002 by the Red Brigades for proposing such reforms, a reminder that opposing Italy's entrenched interests can be lethal. It did begin to boost employment, studies found, although under Prodi's coalition unions had clawed back some changes.
Berlusconi also trimmed some taxes, but that worsened public finances: Italy broke the European Union rule that debt should not exceed 3 per cent of gross domestic product in every year from 2002 to 2006. The growth that Berlusconi claimed would follow did not. In December the OECD economic forecast revised down Italy's growth to 1.3 per cent, underperforming the eurozone, as it had for a decade.
Berlusconi's most damaging legacy was his 2005 reform of the 1993 electoral law. He replaced the strong first-past-the-post element, which produced workable parliaments, releasing Italy from decades of toppling governments, with proportional representation and very low thresholds for competing, which was bound to inflate the power of tiny parties. His Forza Italia party hoped to minimise its losses in 2006 (although, as it turned out, it may have done better under the old system), and to worsen the problems for any new government. In that, it succeeded. Prodi's nine-party coalition, which crumbled once over troops in Afghanistan, never had a chance of pushing through reforms. Nor, given the rift between Left and Right that bedevils Italian politics, will any precarious coalition. Italy needs many things, but first it needs a government strong enough to repeal the law that has cursed it, once again, with weak coalitions.
It is preposterous for Berlusconi to claim that only he can release Italy from a serious problem that was his own creation.
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Hi, I am italian and I feel really sorry about some of the comments I read here. You can vote whoever you feel closer to your ideas, all fine. But pls, if your brain can't effort difficult concepts, don't blaim the school, I am working abroad and I can ensure you I am definetly above average in the international context I live. I read about some desperate housewife saying "If you cares about Italy colonise us! I know that we are ignorant, incapable of ruling ourselves and that's why we need your help"... do you realise we had wars and many people died for freedom? Who do you think to be to judge millions of people ignorant? Pls, if you are ignorant, actually completely out of your mind and you need to be ruled because you still didn't learn how to use your brain, find a man or go back to your mum and leave other thinking people to live without listening to your very low level comments.
Linda, Eindhoven, The Netherlands
I assume that you does not deserve the to be the Chief Foreigner Commentator of The Times, Bronwen Maddox. Your article is based on prejudices and a very naive view of Italy. Please, try do be better informed and professional.
Franco , Italy,
I'll vote for Antonio DI Pietro and I hope he'll do something to destroy Berlusconi's empire!
W DON TONINO
Viking, Turin, Italy
Dear Matteo from Poggibonsi, It's not true that Italians are ignorant. We study at university book of 1000 pages. It's sure we should improve our English but Americans and Englishes cannot speak one foregner language! They know nothing about art and culture. So im'm proud to be Italian. We have created the 60% of art of the world!
Stefano , Milano, Italy
Good evening, I beg your pardon if my english is not perfect, I'm only 20-years-old and our EDUCATION in foreigners languages (and also in the other subjects) is not very good. However, I'm scared of our future... I'm scared because our politicians only want to have POWER. Because Power gives money. I believe that if politicians would earn less, our life will be better then actually. There is not a real interest in italian cityzens, from our politic class.
But most of all, i'm very angry that we will vote another time with the same electoral law, the same wrong law. The last government was leaded by a false majority, a weak coalition. With the present law it's possible to have a great confusion, because of a great number of parties: PdL(Berlusconi-Fini), PD (Veltroni), Sinistra Arcobaleno (Bertinotti), Lega (Bossi) and the Centre, with UDC(Casini), and the Rosa Bianca party. Thus, we will have other 5 years of impossibility to make a good law!
I hope in the future, but...
Matteo, Poggibonsi, Italy
I hope you will excuse me if I make an additional contribution to your article and your readers' comments. This guy by the name of Gianfranco from Turin has the guts of reproaching to another reader a positive comment on Berlusconi and he even claims that Berlusoni's tv is poor and that the guy should be in jail. Last, says he, many Italians refuse to see reality. Now, this is the classical illiberal atititude that you find in Italy today.Your political opponent makes a lousy job and should be in jail. By comparison to other national tv systems, both RAI and Fininvest run pretty good programs. I don't consider them all of the highest quality, but I travel extensively and must recognize that Italian tv is not so bad. In the last elections approximately 19 million Italians voted for Mr. Berlusconi and his allies. Hardly a mass allucination. Hardly 19 million people who cannot discern reality. Hardly half of the Italian electorate who doesn't know what's best for its rcountry. Hardly.
U.M.Boggio, Lugano, Switzerland
I just want to say that i am very angry for the situaiton. I'm from Abania and i'm living in italy since 2002. But now i have decided to go in Ireland. It is very hard to live here in Italy for us. And now the idea that Castelli , Calderoli and Fini are going to be Ministers for me is terrible. Italy have the worst imigration law( for me is stupid, because has produced more clandestines) of UE. And i am sure that who made that isn't going to change.
Jetmir Dinoshi, Trieste, Italy
Luca Benegiano's post is the crystal proof of how many Citizens refuse to see reality, they'd rather watch Berlusconi's tv poor shows than thinking of what is best for our Country.
Yes Luca, keep whatching Fininvest tv channels and keep Berlusconi out of jail, who cares if it costs billions of taxpayers money.
Gianfranco, Turin, Italy
It is very easy judge Berlusconi from outside and not consider the great amount of problems that we have since long time.
Unfortunately, there are not other chances right now; surely our previous government wasnât helping us.
We do not have democracy, people cannot choose, people does not have the right to speak up and decide to send all of them at home.
Yes, we need help from some kind of International Organisation. There are just few option to start with and make real changes:
- create a new government with young and prepared people, with stacked wages and not so many benefit
- people that are not â the friend of the friendâ like in Mafia system
- treat Italy like a real industry with debts to pay and problem to solve
- have as less as possible people on the government
- make referendum to ask what people think
Yes, we are scared.
Simona Elia, Novara, Italy
I am so sorry to read an article with so many badly documented issues, and space allows only to discuss
the Electoral Law: the biggest myth here contained.
No electoral law can give a majority to those who do not win the elections. Fact!
The Prodi Government's coalition (l'Unione, a conglomeration of a bit of everything that showed its total inability to act in an effective way) "won" in 2006 by 24000 votes in the Chamber of Deputies ("maybe" I may add, as there was a challenge from the oppositions for a few tens of thousands of votes that to date has not been resolved...); But lost by more that 250000 votes in the Senate, [whose majority is assigned by a different mechanism as requested by then President Ciampi to sign the reform).
With the previous system Prodi would have won a (smaller) majority in "The Chamber" and Berlusconi's CDL in the Senate, a total Gridlock... The Centre-Right after the election offered a Grand Coalition but Prodi refused... I would call that irresponsible.
Luca Benegiamo, Roma, Italy
When Berlusconi was voted out of power, I expected him to end up in prison. Instead, here he is, wanting to make a come-back.
It is a very convenient lurk for politicians to be finding "Reds under the bed." We have had that kind over here. The lurk is, that if anyone disagrees with something that has been said, no matter what it is, they are branded as a communist.
margie, victoria, australia
it is incredible that comments like this, never reach Italy. it is a true picture of our situation.
Francesco, Padova, Italia
Before reading some of the reactions to the article I thought that the only Italian seeing communists everywhere was Berlusconi. Sadly, I must reconsider my opinion but I also wonder what we can define as "communist" in Prodi's governement. Not even his left-wing allies are communist (in my opinion they just pretend to be...). Is someone condering that the coalition supporting Berlusconi as prime minister hosts neo-fascist parties, too? Do we really need them? I don't think so. I think Italian politics need a change, but a positive and effective one. A change that another term in office of Berlusconi can't offer.
Niccolò, Pisa, Italy
Mr Berlusconi and the Freedom People are the only chances Italy has to turn-back on the right way. A way of modernity, justice and freedom.
Jacopo, Como, Italia
Do you live in Italy - if not how can you be so sure of what you are saying. Everytime Prodi wins an election, we have to dig deeper into our pockets to pay more taxes. There is always an excuse and a promise that it is only temporary. It never is. Italy has been run by the communists for the past two years - what could be worse.
norma , rome, italy
I do not know where Maddox live but like Richard Owen they do not understand the italian polititions,or thay not bypartisan. In less then 20 months the Prodi governament has been able to ruin the life of many italians, who live on wage or pension,
Whatever Maddox or Owen write about Italy,
Berlusconi will be the next italian president.
Giulio Rome
Giulio Giuliano, Rome, Italy
Thank you Mr Maddox.
Dominga, Pordenone, Italy
Spot on a part from the Biagi Law's part: the so called "flexibilty" that should be appreciated is in fact what makes this law a terrible, terrible mistake. This is not the US and workers cannot behave flexibly if the system is not flexible (e.g. no mortgage will be given to a person that doesn't have a permanent job... Result is that the majority of people live with mummy until the age of 45).
Then a comment about Berlusconi's voters and their reasons. Sandro says "Berlusconi's government was the most stable". This is the most common comment I get from people voting for him (I met many of them, sigh). I try so much to understand this comment, yet, I seem to fail every time. What is the point in having a stable government if everything it does is mind the private business of its members?! Why is stability PER SE so important? You would rather have 600 parliament members scrathcing their bellies or robbing us blind, as long as they do it for 5 straight years. I don't get you people.
Rita M., Rome, Italy
Please, please, please... If you cares about Italy colonise us! I know that we are ignorant, incapable of ruling ourselves and that's why we need your help. Believe me, here it's full of persons who deserves the ruin that berlusconi will bring us but there's also who's dreaming about a civilised country. And for who told here that you should care about your soccer team... Maybe she's right, we suck so much that a critic from an english person sounds like a caring attention that we do not deserve. We usually are more interested in soccer than that in pubblic debt.
Beatrice, Apolide, Italy (unlikely)
More than half of the comments on Ms Maddox's article against Mr. Berlusconi seem to share her views. And yet I wrote a comment that was not published and so did a couple of friends of mine. Are you trying to fool your readers? A vast majority of the Italian electorate will vote for Mr Berlusconi and his allies. Are they all blindly stupid and incapable of discerning the facts which affect their own country? In Italy there is a vast lobby which is against any change in order to preseve priviledges unheard of anywhere else in the Western world, just as there is a fairly numerous group of nostalgic communists clothed in the Soviet flag. Mr Berlusconi does not belong to either and, therefore, is attacked with the flimsiest excuses also by an international press often ideologically sided with his detractors or unable to understand the Italian reality. I invite foreign journalists to be less dependant on the Italian press sided with the Left and learn the language to understand the people.
U.M.Boggio, Lugano, Switzerland
Hi
In Italy almost half population has benefited from the public debt , that has touched the 110% of GDP. This debt has not been spent to improve the country (in fact the latest significant public work is the autostrada del sole 40years ago) but has been the biggest robbery in the world. Starting from who got few millions to whom got infinite millions. These people do not want to change anything in Italy and they don'care who is going to rule th country. They just care that we keep on going as usual with the same politicians in order to take honest italians for a ride and make them pay taxes. In addition we have millions of public workers (mostly engaged by politicians to get their votes) payed for doing nothing all day. This means we have no future. This situation is since at least 25 years.
We need ONU help with troops from all over the civilized world to give us a hand to clear this italian situation.
Mario, rome,
You have been too indulgent with Berlusconi's previous government work. Biagi's law is analysed in a trivial way in this article. The only benefit that this law brought in Italy has been for the employers (cheap cost of labour), the reduction of the unemployment rate is mostly due to the reduction of people's participation to the work force. Moreover it doesnât make sense that the costs of flexibility should be charged on workers and this is the only result of the law (Biagi is not the appropriate name for the law because Biagi thought was different). You have to remember that in Italy there arenât protection systems against unemployment etc. and so, why a more flexible worker should earn less than a protected worker? (this doesnât make sense). The pensionsâ reform was explicitly designed to be unacceptable and so a problem for the following government. (But I regret also that the left coalition has not done anything really useful for the country except fixing up finances..
Diego, Portsmouth, UK
in italy we have not information
the chief of the media can do anything he wants
someone still talk about communists.....
our problem is corruption and lobbies...
roberto Ferrara, alghero, italy
Poor Italy! the only hope that now we have is Walter Veltroni; if italian will want a real change of their political condition, now they'll have. Otherwise they'll rest in an physical condition to cast away their vote on the same condition of party. but if Veltroni will have enough votes to give a different governament at Italy, at last the things will change. Italianiii! If you want change, now is your unmissabe occasion...good luk
AndreA, Rome, Italy
The author is spot on. For outsiders, it is painful to watch a country brimming with wonderful people and that has such a rich culture languish due to a governmental system which contnues to reward ineffective and incompetent politicians.
Todd , Washington, DC
Italy cannot be governed by any party for two simple reasons.
1 - there are too many parties, so people never really know who can represent their needs or political beliefs. As a consequence, no strong majority is possible to be reached and even the smallest party can cause a political earthquake at any time (as just happened).
2 - all Italian politicians are corrupt. Their only aim is power, to get it and to keep it. No administration has ever really solved any of our problems, they've only let them get worse and worse. After all, they're only in it for the money.
What we really need is a higher power (e.g. the European Community) to declare Italy a country incapable of self-goverment, which is the sad truth, and force us to a radical change in our political and electoral system.
Leonardo, Florence, Italy
I voted Berlusconi and I will vote Berlusconi also this time. Yes Berlusconi's government was the most stable and long of Italian history and he couldn't realize the program of House of Freedom because the climate of civil war created in Italy by the former communists. Remember the girotondini's movement in the universities, the nogloabl protests driven by the left intellectuals, the strikes of syndacats, the killing of Biagi by Red Brigades, the burning of Israel and American flags for Iraq war. The problem of Italy is that it's impossible to change anything because changing means losing advantages for too many people linked with the former communist party. This is the main question. Come on! We have an old academic like Gianni Vattimo who wants to forbid Israel's books to join to the Fiera of Book in Turin and he is communist. If Berlusconi had cut money to the universities like Prodi we would have a revolution. The only hope is that Veltroni can split the former communists.
sandro, sassuolo, italy
Wow, this is a lot of things on the plate for a single comment.
Since this is an important matter, I would like to explain my point of view in this wellread-worlwide site, and sorry for my poor english.
I am a young italian that travelled a lot in europe in the last years, and so far I heard (in europe) the most unthinkable things about Berlusconi.
This article (British) is the most moderate of all, the French normality is to tell me that Berlusconi is a mafia-gang-thief, and the worst I got was a question from a Finn that plain asked me how it was to live under a dictatorship.
My thesis is that the only kind of political news that come out of Italy is the left-wing kind, through left-wing media, and then they are amplified for the love of scandal.
I otherwise find inexplicable how it can happen that the most moderate of the foreign opinion on Berlusconi is equivalent to the worst domestic one. And it is not surprising, since the most active european coalition of parties is left-wing
Fedechicco, Milano, Italy
"Sivio Berlusconi does not deserve another chance of power in Italy"? How can an English newspaper make a title like this one? Why The Times is so involved in Italian policts? Why the Times gives orders to Italy?
It's better if you think to your national soccer team.
rosy, london,
Mr Berlusconi cannot guarantee italians a better future. In 2001 he came to power promising politics in favour of families and, above all, a life style similar to americans' one . But in his second governement he has demonstrated that he is interested only in his affairs and in boycotting his penal trials.
Also he has left the public finances in bad conditions with a big public debt , that has touched the 110% of GDP.One of the highest public debt in the world. So i suggest firmly not to vote Mr Berlusconi and his allies .
mirko, Padua,
I live in Catania. Catania has as its mayor Berlusconi's doctor,
Scapagnini. He has now been in office for 2 sessions and has brought Catania to its knees. He inherited a healthy economy thanks to Enzo Bianco our centre left mayor who left to be minister of home affairs in Prodi's government. Scapagnini has reduced our city to extreme poverty to the extent that he can't pay the electricity bill and for some hours every day the city is in darkness! Can you believe that? Enzo Bianco stood in our last election for mayor and according to the polls was winning easily, but then Berlusconi arrived with his bribes and Bianco lost only because the poor areas of the city were CONVINCED to vote for Scapagnini. I suppose to please those we have complete anarchy. People can park on whatever pavement they choose, double and triple park and the wardens, if they are actually there say nothing. Nobody stops at zebra crossings and not many wear crash helmets. The pavements are all broken. God help us.
Katy, Catania, Italy
I have only one question for Bronwen Maddox that wrote this "article".
Have you come in Italy before write this article?
I think no because the most of italian familes can't arrive at the 31 of the month because of Left's government (Comunist, Prodi, the vampire Visco etc...) and the increase of taxs.
Only Berlusconi can save us from this disaster of Left's government.
Also the taxs, the Left's Government destroyed the Justice in Italy, as a citizen Italian i can't forget the Judges fired because they investigated Prodi and his communist friends:
A General of Guardia di Finanza was fired by Visco (with the approval of Prodi and his government) because investigated the DS Party (now PD Party) and Unipol.
Two (2!!) Judge was fired by Mastella because they investigated Prodi and Mastella!!!!
Mastella was the best of Left's Government; a Judge investigated about Mastella and Mastella fired the Judge!!!!
In Italy with Left's Government the justice is dead!!!
I vote Berlusconi!
Michele, Perugia, Italy
"Italy broke the European Union rule that debt should not exceed 3 per cent of gross domestic product in every year from 2002 to 2006. The growth that Berlusconi claimed would follow did not."
It's fair, but look at these links:
http://www.worldwide-tax.com/italy/ita_gnp.asp
http://www.worldwide-tax.com/germany/ger_gnp.asp
Now I know: Germany didn't grow because of Berlusconi!
Pietro, Rome, Italy
There were so many great Italian designers and architects and artists during the fifties in Italy. Not to mention the Italian writers and actors and directors. And during the sixties too. And even during the eighties, famous all over the world. Nowadays the desert. Corruption and disorganization have ruined everything, even the hope in the future. Simply no hope, mediocrity reigns here. No hope for us. But Berlusconi is not the cause of our ruin, Berlusconi is only the logical consequence.
Antonio, Venezia, Italy
On April 13 I will vote for the first time and I'm sure that my vote won't go to Silvio Berlusconi, for a simple reason: I don't want to feel ashamed when telling where I am from. If Berlusconi comes back to power, maybe Italians deserve him.
Nico, Lucca, Italy
Well said Bronwen, he will just drag Italy even further back from where it is now. How can the European Union allow a member state to elect a leader with such blatant conflicts of interest as indeed Silvio Berlusconi has in this country? I simply can't believe we're about to see him come back into the limelight again. Italians need to urgently sort out their political system and produce serious polititians, united in their parties and policies who can take this country forward instead of allowing perma-tanned comedians to drag the country down for their own financial gain. Silvio 3 ? no thanks.
Rich, Milan, Italy
stop with these dramas when speaking of Italy: think to Gordon Brown, please!
linus, somewhere,
I agree with Brownwen's analysis of the situation in Italy. Berlusconi had the most stable and longest running government in post war Italy and entirely failed to aid the country one little bit, prefering to pass laws for the sake of himself and his cronies.
The saddest situation of all is that there isnt a SINGLE politician or political party to turn things around, not ONE. Possibly the radicals would seem to have the most farsighted ideas in some respects, but their range of topics seems quite limited (although obviously important) to matters of personal freedoms which are being eroded continuously by the vatican and their political representatives.
Quite frankly Italy needs a selfless and dedicated STATESMAN who is willing to look at the real picture and propose changes that the country so seriously needs, even unpopular changes to public spending caused by the HUGE amount of unneccesary civil servants.
It seems an impossible task for given the current political climate.
Juan, Bergamo, ITaly
Italy is an aging counrty with a falling population. that's because it's run by old people who want to maintain their own interests... I have worked with many young, talented Italians in the City. many of them were exceptional people. All of them said they would never had this sort of sucvess back home beacuse of the way the country works.
The posters who talk about communists sound like they are still living in the 1960s. That's a good reflection on what is wrong with this once-great country.
people who can elect someone who is as arguable crooked at Berlusconi deserve everything they get...
Garry W, London,
...i strongly agree...he, just like many other italian politicians, doesn't deserve another chance!...it would only be a new chance we give him to manage his personal business while he pretends to manage Italy's....i also think that the European Community should care more about what's happening with our country's politics....
Alberto, Roma, Italy
Yes, :-(
and we haven't good expectation for the future.
To the right Berlusconi, to the left the unknown Democratic Party.
The last chance is BEPPE GRILLO for president!!!!!!
It's our last chance, surely better than the other....
It's a provocation, but................
Vincenzo, Bologna, Italia
Of course Berlusconi is not perfect; but you seem to suggest he did better than Prodi, while in office. You failed to demonstrate which of his competitors is more capable of reform.
G. Pasley, Calgary, Canada
It is amazing how fast the foreign press start campaigning against a chance for our country to boost its potentials by getting rid of the communist in the next polls!
Always remember that an ealthy Italy based on free market and helping the PMI instead of the five or six big capitalists is a positive issue for the whole Europe!
carlo, milan, italy
Berlusconi fights against Comunists....
....and that's enough....!!!!!
Thanks Berlusconi...send them in Siberia !!!
andrea, Padova, italy
Berlusconi back into power? A reason more not to go back to Italy.
Andrea, London (but Italian), UK
Where there's life, there's hope!!
We have to wait only some years (I really hope). Maybe with Walter Veltroni we'll have a change. For sure, the italians can't trust to people like Fini, Casini and Bossi, they are only ... we say "trasformisti", like someone who changes his opinion quickly. Let,s hope all goes well..
Paolo di Cupramontana (AN) Italy, Cupramontana,
Please Bush, move the troops from Afghanistan to Italy.
We need help.
Poldo, Sardinia,
I have always voted Berlusconi and will vote him also this time as I consider him the best choice for Italy. Sorry that the author of the article will have a poor opinion on me but my consolation is that he will have the same opinion on the majority of the Italians who are going to do the same.
Roberto Castellano, Salsomaggiore, Italy
The main problem for Italy is that it's full of italians: another Berlusconi government will be the end of this country and plunge it from Banana Republic (where he put it with his last government) to Last of the Third World.
I am making a plea to civilised countries like UK: please, take us as a colony without voting rights, Italians have proved they are not mature enought to rule themselves.
Fabrizio, Roma, Italia
Please italians, save your country, you deserve better...
DW, Pescara, Italia
Oh my! You seem scared.
paul redmon, London, UK