Bronwen Maddox
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Apologies to those in Spain who are living with fears of a slump and housing crash but it is refreshing to see an election fought over the economy, and almost that alone.
Four years ago, three days after the Madrid train bombings, in one of the most precise messages that elections can send, Spanish voters threw out the conservative Government that had sent troops to Iraq. They brought in José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and his Socialists, who have done little as emphatic as their first move to bring the troops home. What voters care about most now is the torrent of bad news about the economy.
Spain's new focus is a useful warning to the rest of Europe about problems that have been easy to ignore in four years of heated rhetoric about Islamic terrorism, the imperfections of the transatlantic alliance and the frustrations of securing a European constitution.
So far, Zapatero has successfully blamed world markets for rising unemployment and the severe wobbles in Spain's property market. But the winner of the elections could face something much worse.
The easy credit and the house-price boom that have driven 14 years of economic growth, the envy of Europe, have now ended. Voters say they are afraid that the housing market will collapse.
In just over a decade Spanish house prices have tripled and have still doubled after taking account of inflation. Brits looking to swap their expensive property at home for a place in the sun have done their part but so have immigrants from Latin America and North Africa. The Spanish media has been full of analysis, too, of young people leaving the parental home earlier.
To cater for that demand, and also to build the roads and other bounty that has come with EU membership, the construction industry has boomed. It now makes up an astonishing fifth of the economy - or it did, until it stalled. The threat of a sudden slump preoccupies anyone owning Spanish property. Some market analysts talk of prices returning to the levels of the mid-1990s.
It would be no bad thing for the EU itself to think harder about how it is going to manage an era when money is short. Someone is going to have to tell Romania, Bulgaria and other poor members that there is never going to be enough money to turn them into Spain. Rivalled only by the Irish Republic, Spain is the most glittering example of the transformation that membership of the EU brings. But there was more money to give them then - the club was essentially one of rich countries. They had the blessing of courts, legal frameworks and businesses that the former Soviet bloc countries lacked - and they were more prosperous than those countries when they joined.
The prospect of recession makes all kinds of diplomatic problems more difficult (Pakistan, to name just one), even if there are others, such as Iran, where it may give an extra boost to sanctions. The EU's internal wrangling is firmly in the category that will get harder.
For years the EU has been wrestling with its constitution: trying to work out how 27 members should make decisions. It would have done better to spend more time on the substance of what they will have to decide.
The questions of how to share out a pot of money that may be much smaller than many were expecting, and how to react to a slowdown, are top of that list. Spanish voters are right to see that coming.
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I agree with Arturo. If all this growth comes from EU subsidies what went wrong in Portugal and Greece?
Sael, Barcelona, Spain
Virtually all the Spanish politicians spoke about Economy during the election campaign and show easy solutions to recover the strong growth of the current apparent decline. However most of the people are afraid the "doctors" did not tell the truth to the Spanish patients and the diagnostic will be worst the day after the elections. What kind of bad news are awaiting to be revealed behind the elections curtains?
I foresee bad days for most of the unqualified workers currently employed in construction, however nobody kowns how deeper will be the crisis.
Alberto, Madrid,
Well yes, I think we (Europe) have all had our good days, but we need to prepare for a new cycle, which does not seem to be of much fun or confort. In Spain, we have been receiving signals of it in the last year: 2 years of wait to sell a house, more unemployment every month, interest rates growing too fast (they have doubled in about 14 months!), and, unfortunately, as I do not like to hear me say this, such a huge avalanch of immigration that reduces possibility of employment, of quality social security, etc. Does this mean that we dont need immigration? No, it means that Spain is what it is: a country with (A) low taxation (B) high unemployment (C) A huge population of retired people.
I think that, whoever wins this next Sunday, is going to have a very difficult time, and a battle where you can only lose (a lot or a little, but lose).
R. Flores, Málaga, Spain
Regina Flores, Málaga, Spain
I think the next government is gonna have to get their act together and make a deep reform of the economy.
It's obvious that the cow of the construction has run out of milk and future of the Spanish economy is getting blurrier and blurrier.
Zapatero has been talking about his plan to reconvert the construction's workforce, but it's not really clear what is that reconversion going all about.
As a temporary patch for the problem, he's gonna start building the proposed infrastructures for 2010 now, so that will give him a 2 years buffer to figure something out :)
Apparently the government is doing efforts to really increase the investments in R&D so that's good, but it doesnt give results in the short-term.
Let's just wait and see, I guess....
Daniel, Brussels, Belgium
No doubt economy will play a role in this election, signs of slump starting to show every week. But the time is right for Mr. Zapatero, as the worst is yet to come.
Manolo, Pontevedra, spain
News of the killing of one socialist politician in the Basque country by Eta's terrorists still say that unfortunately there is much more in this election than just the economy. We have essential items as a country at stake here.
My condolences to the family.
Jose, Madrid, Spain
Interesting that the writer seems to view these problems as confined to Spain and the EU. Britian is facing exactly the same problems as Spain. House prices here have doubled and tripled in the last 10 years, spending has been supported by cheap, reckless lending and political discourse has been dominated by Islamic terrorism / Iraq while looming economic problems were ignored by a self-satisifed quasi-socialist government. It sounds to me like Britain and Spain have a lot in common.
The writer also talks about the EU as though she were an American, remote from the difficulties of EU integration and tightening structural funds. Doesn't she realise that the UK will also be affected? It is a member of the EU too, after all!
MB, Edinburgh,
How is comparing Spain's pre-EU accession GDP to the soviet block relevant here? Spain has benefited spectacularly from EU investment, as has Ireland. The Comecon was hardly an icon of market economy.
Comparing your country to the poorest parts of Europe isn't all that interesting, nor is it flattering for yourselves.
James, Essex,
Foreign press always signaling the EU funds as the motor of the Spanish economy growth of the last decades...
Well, perhaps you must recall that in 1978, when the present Spanish Constitution was promulgated and eight years before joining the EU, the GDP of Spain was already higher than the former Comecon countries' (including the then Democratic German Republic) all together.
Arturo, Murcia, Spain