Some gesture towards progress had to be constructed to greet President Bush's arrival today in the Middle East, even though the chances of real movement in his remaining seven months are small. The one that Tony Blair offered yesterday - the lifting of some travel and trade restrictions in the northern West Bank - is not vacuous. Blair was careful not to claim that his scheme had dramatic, transforming potential, striking the right tone in a region where anything but pessimism invites ridicule.

But the target of this intended regeneration - the troubled town of Jenin - is one of the least propitious places in the West Bank in which to launch this experiment, which goes to the heart of Blair's brief as an international special envoy: to see whether boosting the Palestinian economy in tiny steps can improve the chances for peace.

The limitations of the plan as it is set out, and Israeli officials' hesitancy about whether they would actually implement it, strip it of much potential force. Even more important is the question of whether Blair's mission itself still makes sense or whether the Palestinian economy is so shattered that it cannot recover in the absence of significant political progress.

The centrepiece of his scheme is the Palestinian town of Jenin, an over-resonant name since the violent clash, lasting more than a week, between its inhabitants and Israeli security forces in their April 2002 crackdown on the West Bank. In the December 2005 local elections, the Islamist group Hamas won more seats than the moderate Fatah. On Sunday Salam Fayyad, the internationally respected Palestinian Prime Minister, toured the district (surrounded by a posse of black-clad commandos) to try to convince residents of the sucess of his Government's security drive.

Blair said that Jenin would be the heart of a new development zone, where Israeli security restrictions would be partially lifted to try to boost businesses. Plans for such a zone, which in theory could offer 14,000 jobs, have been paralysed since 1997.

Israel has also agreed to remove four checkpoints along the length of the West Bank, and ease restrictions on eight others. The agreement, finalised yesterday between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, is the most high-profile announcement of Blair's 11-month tenure as envoy for the Quartet - the United Nations, European Union, United States and Russia.

However, an Israeli army spokesman said many of the changes would be implemented only “in the future” and on condition that Israeli security would not be jeopardised. One checkpoint, at Beit El near Ramallah, would be moved only “once Israel determines the security situation so allows”. Blair had initially presented Israel with a list of 12 checkpoints or other barriers that he wanted lifted but that was rejected.

There are about 500 Israeli roadblocks or checkpoints in the West Bank, as well as a system of permits for travel and for work, which limit severely the movement of Palestinians between the towns of the West Bank, and have choked off economic activity. Israel insists that they are necessary to protect its people in Israel and the West Bank settlements from attack.

Blair's plan is a test of two principles. First, that Israel agrees with him that “step by step, we will lift these checkpoints and restrictions”. It is far from clear that it does. Secondly, of whether yesterday's microsteps can make inroads into militancy, given the support Hamas has won, not just in Gaza but on the West Bank. Expectations cannot be high.

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