Yesterday in Sharm el-Sheikh, Robert Mugabe walked triumphantly into the summit of the African Union by the side of his host, Egypt’s President Mubarak.

A day after being sworn in again as Zimbabwe’s President, after elections which he seized through violence, he won the extra trophy of a reception from the country’s neighbours that was at least civil, if not enthusiastic. At the same time in New York, US officials were rapidly drafting a new sanctions resolution to put before the Security Council. The measures, intended to punish Mugabe and more than a hundred of his colleagues, may not sound like much. But the sanctions, preventing those people from travelling widely and curtailing their ability to hold assets abroad, are the best tool for trying to prise Mugabe from the presidency of Zimbabwe. They are aimed at the regime, with the hope that they will not also inadvertently hit the poorest — the main reason that other countries have not yet clamped down on foreign companies operating in Zimbabwe. That remains a hovering possibility, although for the moment, governments have bought the arguments of the companies, mainly in banking and mining, that they provide jobs for poor people.

Even getting agreement on sanctions against the regime is not trivial. But in the past week, since Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the opposition, withdrew from the election, there has been a leap forward in getting agreement, even from South Africa, which holds one of the two-year rotating seats on the council. The June 23 statement blaming Mugabe for the turmoil in the country had unanimous backing even though it was more strongly worded than anything South Africa had said on its own.

UN measures other than sanctions appear out of reach at the moment. The UN’s 47-member Human Rights Council is falling into the trap of its predecessor, the Commission on Human Rights, often accused of being a cover for some of the world’s most abusive regimes to avoid scrutiny of their own rights violations. Nor is indictment at the International Criminal Court at the Hague (not a UN body) a powerful threat at this point. As Zimbabwe has not signed up to the ICC, bringing a prosecution would require a referral by the council, which it is not close to giving.

At this point, too, no one on the council is talking about military intervention.

So if sanctions against Mugabe’s regime are the only immediately available option, will they have much effect? They might fuel discontent among the Zanu (PF) chiefs that could begin to dislodge him. More likely, the implosion of the economy will undermine him more effectively. Zanu (PF) leaders can see that, for all yesterday’s ceremony, he does not have long in power. As they scramble to save their own positions, the outside world’s real intervention, in terms of aid, peacekeepers or helping to broker talks between both sides, can finally begin.

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