Bronwen Maddox, Chief Foreign Commentator
Attend a special evening hosted by Mike Atherton
The European Union offered Ukraine a slot in a perpetual holding pattern yesterday, circling the skies of Brussels while waiting for the go-ahead for membership. Ukrainian officials said they were bitterly disappointed. But then they expected too much. To turn up for talks only a week after the Ukrainian Government fell apart and expect to get marks for stability and reform takes the honourable diplomatic tactic of wishful thinking a bit too far.
Ukraine would do better to trumpet the value of what it has been offered. The “association agreement” with the EU could lead quickly to much closer trade and even to that coveted prize, visa-free travel. It is, after all, the biggest gesture towards membership that the country is likely to get from the EU for a long time. Ukraine would also then stand a better chance of persuading Russia that there was no vacuum for it to fill or disillusion with Europe to exploit.
The EU and Nato have both bracketed Ukraine with Georgia in mulling over whether to extend their borders again. The EU did the same with Romania and Bulgaria, treating them almost as a joint application. It would do itself a favour by treating all these countries separately. Ukraine and Georgia are completely different, and so would be the problems of letting them in.
Ukraine's sheer size puts it far beyond the kind of expansion that the EU could begin to consider at the moment, with voters already fed up with enlargement. With a population of 46 million (ten times that of Georgia), it could not just be swept into the mix. It is not only huge, it is torn between its pro-Russian and pro-European halves — the cause, yet again, of the Government's collapse. The EU is right to point out that Ukraine has to resolve its own ambivalence before it is worth cranking up the Brussels machinery even to look at the possibility of membership. Even then, the answer might well be no.
For the EU to let in a new member is a much more complicated decision than for Nato to do so. Turkey, a member of Nato but with only distant hopes of joining the EU, shows why. EU accession of large countries affect the economies, even the population, of every other member, as well as the budget, the voting rules, and the subtle cultural emphasis of a union that is unsure of just those things.
For Nato, in contrast, membership turns on comparatively simple questions of whether the newcomer could bring useful military forces or territory, and of whether existing members would be prepared to defend it, Of course, with Ukraine and Georgia, that now carries all the melodramatic weight of whether Russia would promptly test the commitment.
But the alliance has never been purely military (as its leaders spend ages reminding the world). It has also defined itself as a pact between like-minded countries: an alliance of those on the same side, against those who are hostile. That is where the value of including Georgia and Ukraine might lie. However tortuous that path may seem, it is still easier than EU membership.
Given that Ukraine is not going to get anything firm towards EU membership for a long time, both sides have an incentive to get the most out of yesterday's co-operation pact. It isn't an empty offer, even if it isn't the one that Ukraine wanted.
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Get ready for the winter sports season, with our resort guides and snow reports
We are backing British business, what is the confidence of the nation and what businesses are succeeding?
Growing demand for energy, oil that is harder to reach and the rise of carbon dioxide emissions. We examine the energy challenge
With rail travel in Europe on the rise, we review the benefits of travelling by train
In this special section we explore new food trends to help improve your dinner party and impress guests
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
1998
£47,955
12 months for the price of 11 and a 5% discount.
Offer ends 31/11/09
Check your free Experian credit report before applying
Car Insurance
£100,000
Barnardos
UK
PwC’s Consulting practice helps businesses of all shapes and sizes work smarter and grow faster
PwC
£37,000
Department for Culture, Media and Sport
London
Currently £36,285
Department for Culture, Media and Sport
London
Moments from Battersea Park.
For sale with Winkworth
Find out about shared ownership.
See your free Experian credit report beforehand
Includes flights, accommodation with room upgrades, transfers city tours in Hong Kong and Bangkok.
PremierHolidays.co.uk
For your ultimate tailor-made ski holiday, click here
Get covered on your travels with a superb range of policies at great prices. Visit InsureandGo.com
World Class Golf, Spa and preferential Beach Club. Private estate overlooking West Coast
Villas from £275 per night inclusive of Golf
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.