Bronwen Maddox: World Briefing
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Declining to offer Iceland a quick €4 billion loan is one of the worst decisions the US and European countries have made in the financial turmoil. It is a false economy that will prove diplomatically expensive.
Not that Iceland is the world’s most attractive credit risk, it hardly needs saying. The chance that it will lack resources to repay a foreign currency loan would be a conventional reason for saying no (although its Government says firmly that it will be able to meet the terms). But the collective refusal, including, it seems, a rebuff by other Nordic countries, has allowed Russia to offer the deal.
It doesn’t take much to work out what Russia is thinking. A former superpower, in search of territory and allies, which planted its own flag last year on the seabed of the North Pole – what better prize could it want than a Nato member that has just been rebuffed by fellow allies? Come to that, what is the point of the US and Britain courting Georgia and Ukraine at such high diplomatic cost if they are so casual about older allies? The €4 billion snub is going to take some repairing.
Talks with a Russian team about the loan will begin on Tuesday in Moscow, Geir Haarde, Iceland’s Prime Minster, said. His office has said that there will be no strings attached to the deal, calling it a normal commercial loan. Officials familiar with early discussions talk of a loan of three or four years, at 30 to 50 points over Libor (the London Interbank Offered Rate, the daily rate at which banks lend to each other). Iceland has dismissed reports that Russia is angling for use of the Keflavik airbase, which was abandoned by the US two years ago, when it deemed that its Cold War purpose had expired.
But Russia’s interest could not be clearer. Iceland’s mid-Atlantic location makes it a hugely desirable ally, as Nato appreciated. Russia has its eye on oil and gas below the North Pole (the point of the flag-planting stunt). Those will be easier to reach if global warming melts the ice cap. Russia has spent years probing at weak points in old alliances. It has driven a wedge (a small one) between Germany and the US over bringing Ukraine and Georgia into Nato. It has plenty of cash for the courtship.
No question that the Russian gesture has gone down well in Iceland (and Gordon Brown’s railing at Icelandic banks has not). Mr Haarde voiced a sharp sense of grievance when he said: “We have not received the kind of support that we were requesting from our friends. So in a situation like that one has to look for new friends.”
Icelanders might point out that they have taken Russian help before, while a Nato member. In 1952, when British trawlermen (although not the British Government) were blockading Iceland in the first Cod War, Iceland agreed a fish-for-oil swap with Moscow. During later scraps with Britain, Nato members’ awareness of how easily Iceland could leave the alliance helped to swing support to its side.
Iceland is now doing what it has adroitly done before: using its location to court both sides. The US, European Union and Nato are in danger of taking its deep links to them for granted. They missed a trick in allowing in the Russian loan.
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Boys,it's wrong to say about political expansion as Russia's goal in deal. Firstly we discuss on loan of just 4 billions.Secondly, we need some respect for Iceland to avoid prejudice they could be bought at all. And finally,now Russia tries to divers investments (we have enough Fannie Mae already:)
Oleg, Kaliningrad, Russia
Maria , Reykjavik, Iceland
Yes, who needs enemies when one has such friends? Mr. Brown is turning everything upside down. His action are jeopardizing everything. The Icelandic banks had enough assets to pay the depositors in loans to British businesses. Are they not supposed to pay their debt?
Kice, Reykjavik, Iceland
Trick. Forget it. We the "terrorists" in Iceland hail the fool in no. 10. It will certainly help us out of Nato and other costly and useless associations. Quite honestly Russia has been a long time friend of Iceland. We look forward to working closly with the Russians in building our economy.
Jona, Reykjavík,
Folks,
The icelandic authorities initially told the British that local icelandic deposits would be safe but foreigns savings won't be guaranteed flouting standard compensation rules - apparently the icelandic authorities were "very rude" about it. End of discussion. You reap what you sow!!!
Karl, Reading, UK
Britain could have offered a loan to Iceland on condition they made their banks sell all British operations immediately to someone solvent. We would have saved outselves some problems and bought a lot of goodwill. Instead, we abuse our laws to precipitate collapse in an ally's banking system. Why?
Rowan, Hereford,
The EU and US have left Iceland with no other place to turn.
"Better red than dead"
M.W., Reykjavik, Iceland
This is a tragedy. Does the poor standing in polls and dwindling support, drive Mr. Brown´s aggressive reactions in this matter? Did anybode say Machiavelli?
Is it possible that this action against Kaupthing may cause liability to the UK government, if it was unfounded?
Jon, Reykjavik, Iceland
Every year, councils publish their budgets and the government tops up the difference after local tax receipts (simplified).
So by what right do they find such huge sums to invest and for why. Surely they should stick to making life for citizens better not make money. thats one reason I left UK
Bill Newman, Torcy le Grand, Seine Maritime
Iceland has NO public dept. Instead it had an over sized banking sector a la US & Eruopean style. This sector has now been allowed to go into bankruptcy, and where normal bankruptcy procedures will have to be given time to clean up the mess. All EEC banking regulation and rules will be met.
GR, AAR Denmark,
What should Iceland do in times like this? Britains papers say that Britain are in a new cold ware with us. They use Anti Terrorist laws on our banks. The alliance with Britain is hanging on a very thin line here and Britain is doing nothing to improve it all though the Icelandic government needs it
Hjalti, Reykjavik, Iceland
This is pure necessity, I'd say there's no one in Iceland who isn't at least a little bit worried at the notion of inviting Russia in. Everyone knows the Russian bear does love to hug it's allies a little too tightly. But vs. potentially going bankrupt as looks possible desperation will win out.
Koru, Reykjavik, Iceland
I've seen my country going bankrupt twice: in 1991 and 1998 and I strongly wish Iceland to miss such experience. If these 4B € can do the trick, Iceland should use the opportunity. Country-wide bankrupcy sucks, guys, "don't try this at home" :)
Jurij Burkanov, Bonn, Germany
Russia is not a former superpower, it is a superpower
Scott, SM, USA
If you are old enough, you will remember Nasser pulling the same trick. When refused a loan to build the Aswan Dam, he turned around and got the money from Khruschev.
I think most people will allow that changed the history of the Middle East a little bit.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/USA
An historic blunder compounded by the utter abuse of our terrorist laws to insult and rebuff a neighbour and vital ally.
Iceland's position means that for the sake of 4 billion we have forced Iceland to deal with the devil. What a stupid, thoughtless blunder. God help us because no-one else will.
J Nowland, Leeds, United Kingdom
Our tax money is often raided for billions to spread corporate and political hegemony throughout the third world, yet when our friendly neighbours are in trouble they are rebuffed.
With friends like this... ugh...
I hope Iceland signs a good deal with Russia, I hate the EU, stick it to them.
Emily, Dublin, Ireland
Britain mourns the loss of its few pounds, whereas Iceland lost its economic legs. In one sentence Gordon Brown says that the whole of Iceland has defaulted, in another he talks about taking actions against the Icelandic authorities. Truly, who needs enemies when one has such friends at one's side?
Sophist, Reykjavík, Iceland