Bronwen Maddox, Chief Foreign Commentator
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Wen Jiabao, the Chinese Prime Minister, will meet Gordon Brown today, to a backdrop protest by supporters of Tibet and the Dalai Lama, its exiled spiritual leader. Tibet, and human rights in general, will be among several traditional points of friction during Wen's first visit to Britain since 2006.
But they are likely to be overshadowed by disagreements about how to handle the economic crisis. The two leaders start with broad common ground - notably an anxiety to describe the predicament as a global phenomenon with its roots in the US. China, too, has increasingly shown its desire to work within a worldwide set of rules - on trade, on sea piracy and even, maybe, on climate change.
But Wen's remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos gave a preview of the areas of dispute. He may not want to contribute to the International Monetary Fund to the degree that Brown wishes. On exchange rates, that old point of sparring with the US and EU, he has said that he is not going to give an inch. And Brown's urgency on climate change may get a cool response - any deal is a long way off.
This three-day visit is an odd mixture of friendliness and friction, but leaning strongly towards the first. On Saturday Wen met local community leaders, and attended the Chinese new year celebrations, as well as a gathering of business people. Yesterday he was due to visit a telecommunications company in Basingstoke. But the most important events are the meeting with Brown and a speech later tonight at the University of Cambridge.
The warm tone Wen has taken towards the EU was evident in his week-long tour of the Continent.
Other EU leaders have sidestepped the issue of China's managed exchange rate, saying that the question of persuading the Chinese to spend more at home is more important. But Tibet remains a thorn. Wen cancelled a China-EU summit in December to protest against a meeting between President Sarkozy and the Dalai Lama. On this tour, Wen has visited three EU countries but pointedly left out France.
The tone of today's meeting will be determined partly by the strength with which Brown presses his case for China to bail out the IMF and other struggling world institutions such as the World Bank. He has made it a centrepiece of his drive to achieve agreement on reviving the world economy. He wants some kind of deal before the G20 meeting in London in April, at which he would then be able to present himself as the world's economic shepherd.
Wen has already said that his priority is to rescue China's own economy, which is facing a sharp slowdown. He has said that he attaches little weight, by comparison, to rescuing capitalist countries from self-inflicted problems stemming from self-indulgence.
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