IS QUITTING Iraq an option? General Sir Richard Dannatt’s scepticism about the value of the British military presence in Iraq follows open challenges to President Bush’s strategy from senior Republicans.

In the past fortnight talk of getting US troops out is suddenly in the air in Washington, fanned by congressional elections early next month, and yet prevented from resolution by them too.

James Baker, Secretary of State under President George H.W. Bush, was the first senior figure close to Bush to say the unsayable, challenging the President’s fervent pledges to stay until, on some definition, the job was done.

Baker is joint chairman of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group, set up by Congress with Bush’s backing, which will publish its views after the elections. He said on Sunday: “Our commission believes there are alternatives between . . . ‘stay the course’ and ‘cut and run’.”

Baker, who hopes for consensus from his ten-person commission, half Republican, half Democrat, is seen as loyal to the Bush family, and many assume that he would not deliver conclusions that appalled Bush. Many speculate, then, that his commission will give the White House bipartisan cover to change tack after the elections.

Last week Senator John Warner, chairman of the Armed Services Committee, on return from Iraq, also asked whether there should be “a change of course” if the violence was not under control “in two or three months”. Zalmay Khalilzad, the hugely respected Ambassador in Baghdad, suggested the same target.

But how? No option is attractive; all have uncontrollable consequences. Yet staying looks the worst (apart from sending more troops).

It looks worse for the US, that is, but as Dannatt suggested, it may also be worse for Iraq. Yet politics is now likely to determine Bush’s decision more than hopes for Iraq’s stability, as the coalition’s ability to deliver that has dissolved.

Given the plunge in Bush’s poll ratings, Republicans will want him to pick a new strategy well before the 2008 presidential campaign.

More troops

No: not popular with Americans or Iraqis.

Threaten US withdrawal

Or, a harsher version, set a deadline. Possible. If Maliki can’t deliver, then putting pressure on him means nothing. But his exit might open the way to decentralised government of regional governors.

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