ANYONE worried about a surging tide of immigration into Britain will not be reassured by the erratic behaviour of the countries that joined the EU two years ago.

After years of euphoria, in which the blending in of Europe’s eastern fringe seemed an unqualified triumph, many of the newcomers seem unable to make the reforms that they promised — or worse, seem to have lost interest in doing so.

Of the big former Soviet countries, Romania has one of the most forward-looking governments — and it is still waiting to be told when it can join. Sceptics will say that this is precisely the point: the lure of joining the club provides powerful incentives to reform, but the impetus ebbs once membership is clinched.

To start on an upbeat note, the scale of the project was always breathtaking, and its success is astonishing. In a decade and a half, most of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe have put their Soviet past unambiguously behind them.

Never mind the implosion of the ill-fated constitution — always inevitable — thje EU has swept them up within its borders with remarkably little turmoil. This week headlines have trumpeted the discovery that nearly 450,000 people from new EU members have registered to work in Britain, more than 20 times Home Office estimates. But that only emphasises how big was the leap into the unknown, as politicians concede privately — a tribute to them, for those who support enlargement.

The problem now is that so much remains unpredictable about the new members’ behaviour, and all the surprises are turning out to be unpleasant.

This week Hungary, the best governed of the big newcomers, revealed its revised plans for joining the eurozone. At least, that’s what it called them, but they were really an exercise in managing expectations downwards, perhaps to zero.

Hungary has conceded formally that it will not be able to join the euro by the 2010 target date. It insists it might manage it by 2011. It does not admit what is now a real possibility: that it may never join.

But that is the implication of its inability to get to grips with public debt, which puts it in one of the most precarious economic predicaments of all the newcomers. The Government reckons that its budget deficit will be just over 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) this year.

Yet the deficit must be no more than 3 per cent of GDP for Hungary to begin the two-year countdown to euro entry. On the Government’s own figures, it might almost meet this by 2009. But to say that there is room for scepticism would be an understatement.

No other capital offers much comfort. Lech and Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the twins who are President and Prime Minister of Poland, seem more exercised with a conservative cultural agenda than economics.

The Czech Republic last week finally acquired a government after two months of political deadlock, but coalition demands may prove a recipe for paralysis, while President Vaclav Klaus remains a caustic critic of the EU.

The new left-wing Government in Slovakia is reversing the tax reforms and privatisations of its right-wing predecessor. Estonia, which is growing strongly, finds that inflation may delay its own euro entry.

To say that Slovenia is doing well is to clinch the argument; it generally has, and it is tiny.

Many of the former Soviet countries were instinctive allies of the US when they joined the EU. But that fervour is cooling too. America’s mishandling of Iraq is one reason, along with its failure to court them, but their new introversion is also to blame.

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