One small step for the European Union, one necessary step for Tony Blair if he hopes to become president of Europe. The decision by the Senate of the Czech Republic to back the Lisbon treaty, after much anguish and noise, makes it much more likely that all 27 members of the EU will finally sign the controversial text.

To its fans, the treaty (essentially the same as the now-dead constitution) is the only way to run a union of 27 members. It simplifies voting rules and strips members of the right of veto on some questions. To its critics, it is a prescription for federalism. Small, poor, proud countries have been most worried. But recession, which has, to some, highlighted the benefits of belonging to the EU and the euro, now seems to be nudging the Czech and Irish Republics towards “yes”.

The Czech vote removes one big uncertainty, although President Klaus, protective of Czech sovereignty, says he won’t sign it just yet. When? He’s not saying, but may be influenced by others. In Germany, ratification is also stuck for technical legal reasons, although parliament has backed it. Meanwhile, Lech Kaczynski, Poland’s eurosceptic President, says he will not sign unless Ireland votes “yes” in its referendum due later this year (reversing last year’s “no”).

It really hangs on Ireland, then. There, the property crash, the impact on banks, and unemployment, appear to be tipping the “yes” block above 50 per cent. The treaty’s chances of coming into force look better than at almost any point since it was written.

So, then, do the chances that there will be a job called president of the European Council, the grandest of four new superjobs created by the treaty. The role is supposed to give the EU a permanent public face (to replace the six-monthly presidency which now rotates between countries). Tony Blair has not formally declared an interest. But then, it is not a job for which one can formally apply. Yet his courtship of the other EU leaders is entirely consistent with the behaviour of someone who badly wants the role. President Sarkozy of France, for one, has said that Blair could be a good choice.

The obstacles are not trivial. It is easy to imagine that Blair’s high profile could grate with other leaders, always sensitive to the EU’s subtle one-upmanship. Iraq is an easy insult to hurl at him. So is the UK’s record in arguing that the EU should go wider but not deeper. His main obstacle in human form — assuming that Gordon Brown would back him, which may be rash — is Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor. While she shares Blair’s pro-US views, she has argued that the US and Britain have been too cavalier about offending Russia. Most of all, the recession, the plunge in Germany’s exports and the deeper crisis in Central and Eastern Europe, have sharpened Germany’s sense that its problems are different from the rest of the EU’s — certainly from Britain’s.

That points to the bigger test for the EU: whether it will keep a sense of unity. The recession is magnifying differences between countries, and the real compromises demanded by the Lisbon treaty are likely to be evident only if it comes into force. Some small countries may be keener on the EU than before. But it is not hard to see why for others, scepticism might rise.

Times Recommends

• Copenhagen will fail – and quite right too
• They’re still wriggling to avoid the flak on Iraq
• Rule the waves? Not any more we don’t