Bronwen Maddox: World Briefing
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President Obama is good with words, and very good at sending envoys. All four of his people whose jobs turn on the Middle East are pitching up this week to try to bring life to his talk about peace. Or, perhaps, to expose it as merely talk.
On Iran Obama has a good case for arguing that more words and more time are in order, while warning Tehran that his patience will run out, perhaps in September. His best hope is that the Iranian leadership will shake itself to bits and that the millions who poured on to the streets in search of change will get it. The best course of action, for now, is to do nothing.
The same is not true of the Israeli-Palestinian deadlock. Obama was right to pronounce a sense of urgency. The question is whether he has the forcefulness to turn this into real talks. There must be serious doubts. They spring not only from the fragmented leadership on Israeli and Palestinian sides, but also from Obama’s curious diffidence, evident at home in the healthcare battle.
This week the region is receiving George Mitchell, the special envoy; Robert Gates, Secretary of Defence; Jim Jones, National Security Adviser, and Dennis Ross, Iran and Israel expert. Gates yesterday gave the line about patience towards Iran running out, standing by his counterpart, Ehud Barak, who warned that military action had not been taken off the table (the now-standard, but maladroit phrase when discussing airstrikes on Iran). Hillary Clinton, the Secretary of State, is not descending to the fray, but offered nuanced threats to Iran from Washington.
The ingredients they are working with are as bad as ever, in the leaders on either side. The five-month-old Government of Benjamin Netanyahu is still in shock at being told that US patience has run out on West Bank settlements. It is still investigating, with an air of disbelief, what the Obama team means by a freeze on building on land it seized in the 1967 war, and which Palestinians want. The Haaretz newspaper reported yesterday that the number of Israeli settlers in the West Bank (not including East Jerusalem, which Palestinians want as a capital), had reached 305,000 — a growth of 2.3 per cent from January to June 30.
Netanyahu’s Government, having miscalculated recent budget votes in the Knesset, is already fighting for survival. Nor is the Palestinian leadership in good shape. Fatah, the only part with which the US will negotiate, is absorbed in its internal summit on August 4 in Bethlehem, a necessary step for the new guard to find their voice. Hamas is threatening not to let Fatah officials in Gaza travel to Bethlehem unless Fatah releases its prisoners first. A reconciliation meeting for the two Palestinian parties planned for later in August looks like a long shot.
In this tangle Mitchell (quietly) and Clinton (the opposite) have been clearer and steadier than Obama in the message they have delivered. It is, of course, entirely appropriate for the President to leave the details and soundbites to his team. All the same, there is a worrying sense — supported by his curious loftiness above the healthcare battle, probably the most important of his presidency — that he will not immerse himself in the conflict in the way that a breakthrough would require. A few good speeches are no substitute.
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