Camilla Cavendish
We've made some changes
to The Sunday Times
How many world leaders does it take to defuse a ticking time bomb? As G8 countries wrangle over climate change, I can’t help thinking that the bigger the crowd, the more likely it is that everyone will wait for someone else to go first. If you do that with a bomb, of course, you are taking a far, far greater risk than if you tried to tackle it. “You take it.” “No please, after you” is a recipe for disaster.
Two new American studies suggest that the tipping point for irreversible global warming may have moved a step closer. Carbon dioxide emissions have been increasing at about 3 per cent a year since 2000, according to the US National Academy of Sciences. That is three times as fast as in the 1990s and outside even the worst scenario modelled by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Meanwhile, satellite pictures seem to show that Arctic ice is shrinking more quickly than the IPCC had predicted. Maybe those who routinely call the IPCC “alarmist” will think again.
The wrangling in Germany is depressing. While Tony Blair and Angela Merkel stick doggedly to their proposal that EU members should set binding targets to cut their carbon emissions by 50 per cent by 2050 from 1990 levels, George Bush has shambled up with an offer to host a parallel set of meetings aimed only at securing voluntary targets.
Déjà vu? Not quite. This is the first time that the White House has said that it wants to be part of an international agreement when the Kyoto treaty expires in 2012. It is the first time that it has backed a long-term goal. Yesterday Mr Bush also indicated, to general relief, that his talks would “fold in” to UN efforts not create a rival initiative. Professor Rob Stavins, climate change economist at Harvard, puts it to me like this: “Bush has only just sat down (finally) at the table. So don’t immediately start to shout: ‘Why aren’t you eating yet?’.”
The world needs America to help to solve climate change. But in her absence, Europe has created a powerful momentum. The Kyoto Protocol has had only a negligible effect on carbon emissions. But its existence has prompted a dozen US states to set their own emissions targets. Companies such as General Electric, sensing an opportunity to clean up in both senses of the word, are calling for carbon taxes. There are five climate Bills pending in Congress. The EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme has created the world’s first carbon market, putting a value on pollution. While the carbon price has been laughably low in the first 18 months, because governments were too generous to polluters, a tighter regime will begin next year.
When I asked Americans why the Bush Administration is so wary of carbon trading, the least bureaucratic and most free-market mechanism available, one said: “Not invented here.” Yet “cap and trade” is an American idea. It was first used in the US in the 1990s to cut sulphur dioxide that was causing acid rain. So an American idea has created a whole new business. American studies say that climate change is accelerating. And the greatest investment in clean technologies is coming from America. Why is the President still moving crabwise?
Partly because of a perfectly valid question that America has been asking ever since it backed out of Kyoto in 1997: will the West foot the bill for solving a problem to which newly industrialising nations are increasingly contributing? And what will that do to our competitiveness?
As the world’s richest country, the US fears being landed with a monumental bill. It is wary of conceding anything without China and India at the table too. And those countries have always been able to use US non-compliance as an excuse for their own. If America enters negotiations, there are a host of ideas for gradually drawing in the other big emitters. But the West is going to have to pay in the short term, while these countries industrialise.
On Tuesday the Indian Prime Minister said that he had no intention of constraining Indian growth, given that the West had created the global warming problem. And the moral argument is clear: the average American still has a carbon footprint roughly eight times that of a Chinese citizen, and 18 times that of an Indian. China now has a climate plan that is less vague than America’s, including stringent energy efficiency goals. And it already generates twice as much electricity from renewable sources as we do in Britain. We cannot pretend any kind of moral equivalence until we have put our own houses in order.
About $5 billion went from West to East last year to provide cleaner technology. The UN’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) lets EU companies earn carbon credits by paying to clean up Chinese factories, for example. China is laughing all the way to the bank: Beijing has already started to tax CDM profits, which should make Western governments wince. Yet it still makes sense to take a ton of carbon out of the atmosphere where it is cheapest for us to do so. In fact, we should be spending far more money in China, if we want to lure it on to a lower-carbon path before it invests in any more dirty power stations.
This kind of subsidy may sound like economic suicide. But if you look at it as aid, perhaps not. Some money may go astray. We could end up paying Brazil not to cut down trees, and wake up to find the Amazon has shrunk. But we may have to accept some waste as inevitable.
For every clean Chinese factory there will be a Western company manufacturing the solution. Businesses are already scrambling for pole position in the low-carbon economy. And the ultimate payoff is energy security and a stable climate: the benefits will flow West as well as East.
So how many world leaders does it take? Fifteen countries produce about 85 per cent of the world’s emissions. Their leaders, at least, fit round a table.

Camilla Cavendish has been a McKinsey management consultant, an aid worker, and CEO of a not-for-profit company. She is now a leader writer and columnist on The Times
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The debate on wether emissions from humans is generating climate change is still out, since the level of change being observed now is well within natural variables (and is slow compared to previous episodes) I would not argue against the idea that emissions from human sources could tip a balance. If we accept that human sourced emissions are triggering climate change, and that past / present populations have already caused a problem, then the predicted extra 3.6 billion people who will have arrived on the Earth by 2050 can only make the problem far worse. At present we are using up fossil fuels at unprecedented rates, we are cutting down rain forest / flooding huge areas in hydro electric schemes / destroying the habitat of countless other species. Why? to meet the needs of an increasing human population, for food, living space, fuel. Bleating on about global warming whilst ignoring population levels is the equivalent of shouting Fire! whilst pouring gallons of petrol on it.
Peter East, Grays, Essex
Ms. Cavendish:
"We could end up paying Brazil not to cut down trees"
You do realize that up until now *you* are paying us to cut said trees, don't you? Or didn't you know that the profits from that go to pockets of the so-called "first world"?
Greco, BH,
The real issue is the size of the World population (let alone growth rate!) and China has attempted to bite that bullet against a backdrop of Western criticism for years.
Westerners will never be in a position to bite the same bullet because of their nature. Fundamentalist religionists and popular opinion will not allow Western leaders (democratic or otherwise) in the same room as the bullet --So expect nothing worthwhile at all on the climate front until population issues are dealt with.
Stephen Baddeley, Sydney, Australia
The GREBAFACA - POLITOPOLISTS seem able to thjnk of everything , only in isolation, and traverse the world to talk about each one on its own.
In the case of climate change, you mention trees and water, both of which should be taken into account when looking for solutions to some of the other problems in the world. The world must come down to earth !
arthur marson, huddersfield, west yorks
In science, Frederick Davies, there is no such thing as a proven theory, only theories that look like they are probably a good approximation to reality and theories that don't.
Global warming has been judged by the scientists who know about climate to be a theory that is probably a good approximation to reality. Among its predictions is that life for the human race will get very uncomfortable indeed if we let the temperature rise by more than about 2 degrees. That may be wrong, but it looks like it has a very good chance of being right, so it seems prudent to work on the assumption that it is. And that means all working together without bothering too much about competitive advantage.
Let's not be frogs boiling to death because we can't be bothered to jump out of the warming water.
Bill Linton, London,
Dear Frederick Davies of Oxford, UK.
That is exactly what we think everytime some American or British tree hugger critisises us for the "destruction of the rainforest", or "destruction of the (fill as appropriate)'s habitat".
I guess its ok for us to sacrifice our development and progress so that you can watch a rare species of ant on a documentary narrated by Sir Attenborough, eh?
You had your turn at progress, now its ours.
A citizen, Of, The non-western World
It's interesting that although CO2 has been increasing this century global temperature has stopped rising. I wonder why?
If we do though want to dramatically reduce CO2 quickly, then we have to decarbonise global power supplies and we'll have to pay, both for ourselves and for China, India and the rest of the developing world. Quite a "tax increase" on electricity that will be.
Dr David Jenkins, Weybridge, UK
Excusing his misprint that should read 60 billion tons RM Barclay has a point if the figures are verifiable, or what all the experts are telling us in relation to human contributions is correct.
Any experts got an explanation?
JimD, Norwich, UK
One may suspect that a bottom-up approach from a groundswell of popular movements may be needed to kick start meaningful global government co-operative action.
Although there has been plenty of advance warning from the 1930s onward as to possible consequences of uncontrolled economic growth, (mainly on the resource depletion front), development now at different stages is the obvious problem, with latecomers as well as those who were first unwilling to take what might be an unfair share of the cost of solutions.
Even on the individual level, for many theres possibly a St Augustine-like hope for material restraint but not yet, which could stymy a perception of need for urgency.
dr venables preller, Warminster, UK
You state that the national academy saya that since 2000 the rise in co2 has been 3% per annum.
The arithmetic would appear to be as follows. The atmosphere weighs 5000 trillion tons(wikipedia), co2 is .04%, i.e.2 trillions. Therefore co2 weighs 2000billions tons. If it is rising at 3% that means that 60 tons is being added to the atmosphere each year, since humans contribute about 15 billion tons something else is contributing 45 billion tons whether the IPCC likes it or not.
The reason for Global warming is that the sun varies its output. It did it 1000 years ago and 1000 years before that.
R.M.Barclay, Glasgow,
I sometimes wonder how stupid people can get: give your main competitors and future enemies a free ride to ruin your economy and have spare cash to modernize their military. And all for an unproven theory that is becoming more and more like a religion. Future historians are going to have a hard time explaining all this idiocy.
Frederick Davies, Oxford, UK
China's ability to dictate to its people is undiminshed by economic wealth. The stance taken by the United States is allowable, America first; that country did not rise to preeminence in the world by being touchy-feely. They are aware of the effort that is needed to maintain economic well-being and have learned that the pursuit of happiness is very closely related to pursuit of hard cash. The circumstances of choice between America and Britain say, are vastly different. Affordability is the American keyword while in Britain, that tired old birthplace of industry, there are two emotions in play. People have had enough of being subordinate to industry, the aparent wealth, despite the demise of industry, enboldens people to campaign against filth and pollution. But Britain is also rationing its people's resources. What better way of eeking out diminshing resources than inventing a decoy position about the environment. Too many people, too few resources, that is Britain's real problem.
Malcolm Turner, Alsager, England
All this week the BBC's Working Lunch has been profiling US alternative-energy companies that are listed on London's AIM market.
What is striking is the extent to which the Pentagon is pouring money into these companies. It has recognised that if it can replace bulky batteries and generators with solar panels and fuel cells, then its troops will be more mobile and able to carry more useful equipment. They seem to be one of the largest spurs to R&D spending in these areas.
The good news, of course, is that in the land of the $400 screwdriver, Pentagon budgets are one bill that few Americans flinch at footing.
Ian Kemmish, Biggleswade, UK
and,
the Chinese are much less likely to go galavanting around the world, invading other countries on in the name of American-style "democracy", while claiming a falsified and deluded moral superiority over other countries.
Pete, Cov,
While carbon emissions certainly merit attention, they are but symptoms of the cancer that afflicts our planet: mankind.
Our numbers increased threefold in the last half-century. If the trend continues there will be twenty billion humans around 2060. Politicians point to hopeful factors but neglect the adverse that overwhelm these. We have to arrest and indeed reverse the explosion in our population, and its aspirations, that is the cause of the increase in greenhouse gases.
Noel Falconer, COUIZA, France