Camilla Cavendish
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It has been a strange two weeks in the bubble of Blackpool and Bournemouth. You may think there that should have been a plural but it feels like the same bubble, not two different bubbles. The journalists, the quangocrats, the fringe speakers, are largely the same throughout. Only the politicians are different, and, of course, we the media will kindly filter their utterances for you.
It is impossible to know what voters have made, if anything, of these conferences. But there has been a profound mood shift in the media. And although anything I say now must be taken with a health warning, trapped as I am in the airless bubble, I wonder whether this mood change may soon start to be reflected in the electorate.
Proximity to power dulls the wits. That is the only explanation I can offer for why Gordon Brown’s speech generated so many positive headlines on Monday of last week; although 36 hours later almost every journalist I spoke to had privately come to see it as barren and dishonest. Concerted spin in a crowded space – cramming the media together in these conference centres always ups the chances of similar headlines – combined with the infectious self-confidence of an able and united Cabinet somehow made it easier to swallow some of Mr Brown’s lines.
By the end of last week, almost no one was saying any longer that Mr Brown was a conviction politician. Labour seemed intellectually exhausted. And an unattractive streak of ruthlessness was showing through.
Which is why Sir John Major’s remarks two days ago scored a palpable hit. What a turnaround. One minute Mr Brown is taking tea with Baroness Thatcher and briefing the press that he is wrapping himself in “Tory clothes” – the ones we thought no one wanted to wear any more. The next minute he is handbagged by Sir John for telling the press that he is pulling 1,000 men out of Iraq with no explanation as to whether he is risking the lives of those who remain, and no regard for the House of Commons whose primacy he recently promised to respect. The BBC gave Sir John a full ten minutes in which to vent his restrained fury.
There is more to come in this vein. A furious debate broke out at an emergency meeting at the City of London Corporation on Tuesday, after its leaders were told by Government to agree to commit £400 million to fund the Crossrail scheme immediately – apparently in order to provide another positive preelection announcement. They agreed – listen for the sound of gongs dropping soon – but these ploys are starting to backfire. The Prime Minister’s penchant for calling certain journalists in the early hours of the morning and taking them to task does not look terribly prime ministerial. It is irritating some in the press corps who thought that he was bigger than this.
By the time David Cameron got up to give his conference speech yesterday, it had become an awful lot easier to present him as a man of integrity in a world of spin. That was not the main theme of his speech, but it was a clear subtext. The Old Politics is failing, he said. And he explained why: top-down statism has not wrought the improvements that everyone seeks. This was an argument for limited government, not merely another shopping list.
The greatest irony of Mr Brown’s electioneering is that it has galvanised the Conservative Party into a rare semblance of unity. It has also finally pushed them out of Phase 1 – the thinking and “rebranding” phase, where they had become becalmed in a welter of policy reviews – into Phase 2 of finalising hard policy. Even four weeks ago, party stalwarts were still having to urge Mr Cameron to accept that he had succeeded in getting people to listen and could move on. Mr Brown’s move has expeditiously forced him on to harder turf.
There is another danger for Mr Brown too. If he keeps up his new brand of manipulative populism laced with spin, he will start to look more and more like Tony Blair. Yet one of the main reasons for his popularity is not being Tony Blair. The Brown bounce is, at least partly, the “not-Blair” bounce.
It is fashionable to say that the Conservatives will be better placed to win an election next spring, when they have had more time to shape their policies and when a slowing economy may have taken the shine off the new Prime Minister. I am no longer sure that this is correct. An election would silence most of the rebel Tory voices. It would also help the Conservatives to paper over some remaining intellectual tensions: between the desire to give doctors and teachers more autonomy, for example, and the desire to direct them in certain ways.
This short period has exposed, yet again, what a ruthless PR machine this Government operates. Labour has been skilled at suppressing internal dissent since it crushed the Militant Tendency in the 1980s. The Conservatives, in contrast, can’t even stop Theresa May sounding scared on Any Questions. If a Conservative leader had made the extravagant spending pledges that Mr Brown made last week, Labour would have costed those pledges and had a press release out within an hour, demanding to know how they would be paid for. The Conservatives didn’t even run the numbers.
Yet opportunism is looking more and more absurd. In its attempts to rubbish George Osborne’s plans to tax nondomiciles, the Treasury has been rushing out figures that it has strangely never been able to find before. Its latest rebuttal, yesterday, came with this small print: “All figures are best estimates . . . need to be treated with a great deal of caution . . . due to the lack of available data.”
An election is still Mr Brown’s to lose. But he is looking more vulnerable than he could have imagined two weeks ago.
Camilla Cavendish has been a McKinsey management consultant, an aid worker, and CEO of a not-for-profit company. She is now a leader writer and columnist on The Times
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Mr Mullen - something of a case of the pot calling the kettle black I fear! Where have you been for the last 10 years?
Adam Neilson, Birmingham,
As my father always told me never trust Labour,
Denver Watt, Osaka, Japan
Never, never forget what you have British voters are the Blair rejects including McBroon himself. Never never forget British voters that Blair scraped the bottom of the barrel to find 'talent' and ended up surrounded with talentless 'yespersons' all of who turned out to have 'form' . McBroon will find he has spun himself into a deep hole (if he hasn't already) surrounded with people even Blair/Campbell et al didn't want - do you want them British voters?
Ripsnorter, Malaga, Spain
About 40% of the electorate did not not vote at the last 2 elections and I was one of them on both occasions. While some politicians are honourable people, the majority are not. The last 2 weeks have not changed my view that most politicians have contempt for the electorate and if I were to vote for any of them then I would be endorsing that contempt.
Peter Donson, Southwell,Notts, UK
Yes, no doubt that the modern Conservative Party has policies years ahead â a full century actually â of the still centralist, statist, soviet Labour party. (To be fair though, in the 1980s and 90s Labour was also a century ahead of the Dickensian Conservativesâ¦) The problem is that the electorate takes a few years to GET these changes. An election now will be won by Labour. We must stop them, and have an election in 2 years. Besides, Labour must harvest the economic bubble burst it has created. Then the Conservatives can win well, and keep it for a few decades.
Laura Fox, Chichester, UK
Roll on the election lets rid this country of what must be the worst government ever.
D Case, Newquay,
There is no difference between the two main parties - evident from the palpable indifference of the voters. Cameron has his core vote wrapped up - those who will never vote labour under any circumstances. If he wants to capture the rest of us he should target the Big Idea of the modern labour party - Statism. He should commit his party to the following: Scrap ID cards; dismantle all CCTV; abolish 'targets', 'visions' and 'goals' as structures for measuring progress; ban advertising aimed at children; reinforce the rights of adults over those of minors (including allowing peremptory chastisement of miscreants by parents, teachers and police officers); move away from the terror/crime-inspired culture of fear; promote investment in manufacturing. I could go on, but even a sparse selection of these rather obvious ideas would mark the clear choice that our moribund political life so desperately needs.
George Lennan, La Rochelle, France
Surely we are not voting for Brown or Cameron, we are going to vote for a Party This Government, in which Brown has been a very central figure has been a party to many lies and an awful lot of spin and it is simply time to try a different tack.
John Albert , Lisbon, Portugal
Cameron's great speech on Wednesday will certainly have made Brown, the 'so-called heavy-weight' re-think his call for a general election now but I hope he would do so - he would most certainly lose and big to the Tory party and good riddance to very bad rubbish indeed.
This government has done nothing but spin and lie throughtout its tenure and I do hope people will sit up and takie note and vote for freedom of choice in all matters, most importantly in health, education and welfare.
Time for the Tories to come back in and if the voting public has any sense they will see the light and vote Tory!
God Bless the UK!
Chips Westwood, SARLAT LA CANEDA, France
Reading the comments of Mr Spencer of Newcastle (which I hope is of the "upon-Tyne" variety, and not the sensible folk of Newcastle-under-Lyme), I am reminded of his incompetent namesake in the BBC sitcom "Some Mothers Do 'Ave 'Em"!
I indeed hope ALL of Great Britain wins, not just the privileged few who interest Mr Cameron.
Timothy I Mullen, Stoke-on-Trent, UK
Perhaps, like American presidents, political parties should have a limit to their term in office. In 1997 we were right to get rid of the Conservatives; now we would be right to get rid of Labour. After 10 years in power all political parties start going rancid. They think they have a divine right to rule; manipulation, spin, bullying and sleaze increase. This is not cynicism, but realism. All power tends to corrupt: it is human nature. The greatest bulwark for democracy is the grand old slogan, "Throw the rascals out!"
The situation is not helped by any government, elected by a minority in the country (yet having a majority in the Commons) having quasi-dictatorial powers.
Dave, Wrexham,
The only thing heavyweight about Brown, apart from his salary,
is his obscenely heavy, decade long, extortion of taxes from a long suffering british public. His slogan on entering office should have emulated Blairs on education - namely TAXATION,TAXATION TAXATION.
Anybody wanting to elect him for another 5 years of the same must be tuppence short of a shilling>
Philip, Ipswich,
Is it me or does anyone else remember voting for Mr Brown to become prime minister?
About time we had an election and have a feeling of legitimacy in our government, which wont happen under Mr Brown let alone the labour party itself.
It these last 10 years the only thing Labour has consistently succeeded in carrying out, is to turn our country into a nanny state. Change is needed, and now is the best time for it, under a government ran by a man who was never voted in.
In my mind, Mr Cameron is the right man to take this country forward! lets hope Great Britain wins...
Frank Spencer, Newcastle, UK
If you are obsessed with football and celebritiess and read the tabloids and if you live in the North and South get drunk every week and have no manners or respect for others and havewe all know who you will vote for. Or not?
Frederick, London, UK
And if you seem to be illiterate and unable to articulate your thoughts clearly....???
Mary Page, Prague, Czech Republic
If you are obsessed with football and celebritiess and read the tabloids and if you live in the North and South get drunk every week and have no manners or respect for others and havewe all know who you will vote for. Or not?
Frederick, London, UK
Rubbish. Get real Brown is by far a heavy weight and he will knock out the fly weight Cameron.
Bill, London,
A heavy weight ? Because he carries the burdens of ten wasted years of horrid incompetence and disintegration !
Of war guilt ! pension butchery and double talk !
A heavy weight ? With a guaranteed pension, perks and steady income while the nation struggles with the tax credit system, high prices and growing debt.
A heavyweight leader in a blotted government !
If that is a heavyweight - let's vote in the fly weight !!
David , Swindon, Wiltshire
It's funny how many people bought into Cameron's line about an 'off-the-cuff' speech, when this very paper carried a photo yesterday of him reciting and practising his speech. So much for not spinning.
martin Caldwell, LONDON, UK
I agree with Lily, Truro, about the embarrassing way that the media has lapped up Brown's spin. So many terrible things have happened since he became Prime Minister of a party whose policies he has been key in implementing.
Obviously few journalists have an interest in farming but the impact of F&M & Bluetongue is obvious even for urbanites. Perhaps the first run on a bank in 150 years is more relevant to these people? Or a child being shot - then NOBODY having the courage to shop the murderer (which is as bad as pulling the trigger).
Or MRSA out of control in hospitals staffed by people whose foreign medical credentials are, as Labour themselves have admitted, often inadequate.
I was previously pro-immigration for people who were after a better life & believed in fundamental human rights such as freedom of speech & equality of women, but now that Labour has let in absolutely everybody, through legal & illegal means, it scares me.
Thank God for Cameron
victoria, London, UK
Yes Camilla, I was pleased to see Sir John Major on TV again.
It was a reminder to the public about his time in office which was memorable only for black wednesday, back to basics, sleaze, and his own less than spotless personal behaviour, which resulted in a Tory wipeout in 97.
As for Mr. Cameron's speech... a few hours later, and it's already forgotten.
Caz, Notts., GB
Oops! I wonder if Gordon Brown is already regretting creating all this election furore. He may yet have to spend quite a long time in the corner of that room, waiting for the wet paint to dry. Next week's Polls could make interesting reading.
Alan, Honiton, UK
Most of the media, press and broadcast, seem to have been in thrall to Brown since he took over and with little exception , have given Labour a very easy ride. They have been in power for ten years but one could be forgiven for thinking this lot have just come to power! This bias goes some way to explain the polls in my view.
I am not a Conservative, and have never voted for them, but definately will be , as even with our skewed voting system, they are our best chance of ridding this country of this awful, wasteful and incompetent government.
I was impressed with speech and having read some comments on line yesterday switched on C4 news expecting to see coverage, but no. The media bias has been appalling in my view.
Lily, Truro,
Notice how the comments start with posters genuinely impressed with Cameron and the Conservatives and then tip swiftly into the mind-numbing rhetoric of NuLab spin?
It isn't a coincidence; it's NuLab's version of PR activities. We used to call it manipulation and always assumed it only happened in dictatorships.
Probably the most compelling reason to vote Conservative and for freedom of expression at the next election.
Dave, York, England
Cameron's speech and performance shows he will be far better campaigning than Brown when the election is called. Although Brown is highly intelligent, he sounds like an old wind bag, worse than Kinnock. Labour has the lead but the Tories will narrow the gap.
paddy, dumfries, uk
Blair politics were all about spin, Brown is now beginning to show his true colours of spin and deceit not dissimilar to Blair. Cameron's politics are more genuine but quietly spoken. The shame is though that the British public have yet to recognise the difference between spin and truth.
Simon Daglish, London,
Watched Cameron's speech on the Internet last night - what a tour de force! What other contemporary politician could extemporise like that in public? Not one I would warrant (apart from William Hague perhaps). No surprise that Brown will not go head to head in a televised debate - Cameron would make mincemeat of him. How would he respond to the challenge "British jobs for British workers" (as Brown said in his speech) - what does that mean then, when European law makes it illegal? How would he respond to "deport foreign criminals" (as Brown said in his speech) when Labour's own Human Rights Act makes that virtually impossible (as we have seen time and time again)?
Bravo to Cameron. Bring on the election! The Conservatives under Cameron would win!
Richard, Kidderminster, England
The most important question for Brown must be whether or not the British people have the sense to hold him responsible for squandering the solid Conservative economy (14 consecutive periods of growth prior to the Labour win) and, more importantly, the European economic miracle of the last decade by failing to equip the country for a crunch. If he gets away with it, he's home and dry. If the country faces up to the truth, he's in trouble.
Tom, Dubai, UAE
Brown is like a gyroscope. It is only the frantic spinning that gives him a semblance of substance. His actions this week will mean his spinning days are numbered and we will all start to see that his initial upright appearance was just an illusion.
Ian, Stafford,
No wonder Blair's reform of the public services failed despite an infusion of extra cash.
Having this cynical, manipulative, bullying, dishonest character around, who seems to seek power at any cost but doesn't know what to do with it, cannot have been pleasant or productive.
The dearth of new ideas is because the last 10 years have not been Blair's Britain. They've been Brown's Britain.
I almost feel sorry for Tony Blair.
RM, London, UK
I voted Labour in 1997 and 2001 and LibDem in 2005. Something about the Labour Party Conference bothered me. I'm not sure whether it was the fact that Gordon Brown felt so insecure that he limited all his other speakers to 7 minutes or the almost eerie lack of dissenting discussions or the fact that his speech was a complete rehash of things previously announced but dressed up to look like something new.
The Conservative Party Conference was more refreshing and I got the impression that it was more of a team effort. David Cameron did not seem to be insecure about allowing his mI liked what David Cameron had to say.
I find your analysis interesting and thought provoking Camilla. Certainly will keep an open mind about who gets my vote.
John Goh, Welwyn Garden City, Hertfordshire
Bill, London.
You are'nt Barnacle Bill by any chance? Get your head out of the sand, the election is Brown's to lose.
edwina rigby, blackburn, England
Not a chance. The conservatives couldn't lead a pack of sheep at the moment. Something particulary disasterous will have to happen to change public opinion now.
Taryn Morgan, Manchester, UK
You're reading too much into it. The Tories are going to tinker with a few taxes, but haven't committed to any big spending cuts. The credit crunch is going to make it all irrelevant anyway.
On social disintegration they've seen the problem but they won't say what they plan to do about it. It is doubtful that they know.
No one is too interested, except those actually there, for whom there is bit of sense of occasion. But it is not like the great battles of the 1980s. And David Cameron ripped up his speech. Once you've started spinning you can never stop, only spin anti-clockwise.
Malcolm McLean, Bradford, UK
Rubbish. Get real Brown is by far a heavy weight and he will knock out the fly weight Cameron.
Bill, London,