Camilla Cavendish
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I came back from holiday in the vast calm of Burgundy to find that the UK will have the largest population in Europe by 2060, on half the land area of France. Sharif told me this while he was doing my hair. He thinks it would be “crazy, darlink, so sweaty, and just not fair”. But he also worries that his Polish builders will go home and leave him with Albanians who are less cute and who have apparently acquired the English tea-break mentality, but not much English.
We have become completely contradictory about migration. We are alarmed by the numbers of people reaching these shores, yet suddenly afraid that they might pack up and leave. Can we afford to lose energetic people who have helped to drive the economy? Can we afford to keep them? How many is too many?
First, the stats. If there is any certainty at all in population projections, it is that a 50-year EU projection is bound to be wrong. So I dug out the Government's 20-year forecast. It's stunning. The Office for National Statistics expects Britain's population to rise by ten million, seven million from immigration. That would require the building of ten big cities. Yet the Government has no plan for housing the numbers it is apparently planning to accept, nor for providing the services they would need. Already, half the babies in London's maternity wards have foreign-born mothers. That doesn't make any baby worth any less. But those of us who have given birth in the capital in recent years know that midwives are dangerously variable in quality and that hospitals are so overstretched that women are being turned away from hospital to give birth on the kitchen floor.
Will a recession empty the wards and leave our dynamic economy bereft of talent? Probably not. The significance of the Polish exodus has been overblown because of the assumption that Eastern Europeans are a majority of those coming here. Yet they have never been. Even in 2004, when the Government opened Britain's doors to the new EU accession countries, of the 940,000 people who came here legally only a third were from the EU. Over the past 15 years more than 90 per cent of legal arrivals have been from non-EU countries.
This gives the lie to the pretence that the Government cannot restrict the numbers entering Britain. The fourfold rise in official immigration in the past decade can be explained largely by deliberate policy. In 1997 the abolition of the Primary Purpose Rule removed the restriction that required applicants to show that they were not just marrying to enter the UK. In 1998 the abolition of embarkation controls ended any effective record of who came in and out. In 2002 the number of work permits was doubled. The Government now claims to have created an “Australian-style points system” to keep out the low-skilled, but it is Australia-lite. Australia sets an annual limit on numbers, then takes those with the most points. The British have no such limit.
Much of our contradictory approach is because while we appreciate the undoubted skills of foreign doctors and builders, we are less enthusiastic about handing out lifetime entitlements to unprecedented numbers of people merely on the basis that they are here, legitimately or not. It is clear that immigration has brought much-needed wealth, ideas and energy into the British economy. It is less clear, over time, how to balance economic benefits against the value of state ones.
The answer may be to decouple the two. There is no cast-iron reason, for example, why immigrants who have been here for five years should automatically acquire a permanent right to remain. Nor is it axiomatic that they should have the same entitlements as British citizens. Many countries with open borders refuse to give immigrants equal rights. When I lived in Bangladesh I met many families whose income came from guest worker relatives in Kuwait and Jordan. During the Gulf War, the sheer number of disgruntled returnees astonished me. For me, the term “guest worker” was flush with imperial exploitation. But these people were just grateful that they could earn. They did not expect additional benefits. They were keen to get back, even to Singapore - which expels guest workers if they become pregnant.
The guest worker concept is unpalatable in many ways. But it may be fairer than shutting people out altogether. The US economist Lant Pritchett has called guest work a liberal solution to the problem of the “irresistible forces of global migration” coming up against the West's “immovable ideas” of nationhood.
I raise the issue because it seems clear to me that our current approach is both undemocratic and unsustainable. When the official figures point exponentially upward - and the official figures are a woeful underestimate because they fail to capture the illegals - we are in danger of stretching the social contract to breaking point. People are getting angry, and they will get angrier if the recessionary tide leaves ever more foreigners claiming benefits here.
The alternative to a guest worker system, which feels more British, would be to offer every legitimate worker equal rights - to benefits, at least, if not to permanent residency. But in this overcrowded island, this will only work if there is some kind of cap on numbers. Come to Tower Hamlets and see people living eight to a room. Spot the secret doors cut into buildings which have been divided up into grim tenements, like the old Jewish ghettos. Many of these people earn below the minimum wage and some are trafficked. It is inhuman.
I believe we face a choice: between open borders and guest workers, or closed borders and fewer workers. To continue to pretend that we do not, as recession looms, may prove politically dangerous. The immigration issue is now spatial, not racial. And the fairest solutions may be those that look the least liberal.
Camilla Cavendish has been a McKinsey management consultant, an aid worker, and CEO of a not-for-profit company. She is now a leader writer and columnist on The Times
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How about restricting imigration to 3 simple categories:
1) refugees fleeing hardship
2) vital skills (e.g surgeon)
3) people who; hold strong western liberal values and will contribute to making us a more progressive country. e.g. a secular Turk should be able to get a visa very easily.
Alan Moroney, Brighton, England
Reading the comments, it's obvious the British feel strongly that immigration should be stopped. What do they do about this strongly held feeling ? - write to the papers, moan at dinner parties, rant in the pub.
What do you think will keep on happening ?
Emigrant, London,
Just about the only completely sensible comment is from Paul of Singapore. Anything else is simply short term cosmetics and will do nothing to redress the balance between space and resources on the one hand and gross overpopulation on the other. Why stop at 45 million? 30 million by 2100 or starve.
D.L. Stephens, York, England
Sliding Value of Pound, rising inflation, increase in food cost, affordability of a decent accommodation, quality of education, rise in crime, binge drinking culture, teenage pregnancy and so on.... will make UK the lease prefered country to immigrate.
By 2028, Brits will move to India and China
Uma Shankar, UK,
I was born in this country and have lived here all my life. I loved the country and was proud to be a part of it. I wished I had seen this overcrowding/stifling problem coming as I would have left when I could. Now, I can't and I am stuck in a country I hate.
Ann, Birmingham, England
Current immigration policy seems to be all aobut making the rich richer whilst the majority have to put up with inevitable extra burden immigration places on public infastructure. It seems not so much about providing extra workers, but providing the multi-nationals with more customers.
Mark Johnson, Birmingham, UK
No one disagrees: this open plan migration to the UK with no limits or conditions even of speaking English, is a disaster and tribalising England. But this article needs to consider the Human Rights industry: that makes is impossible to control sham marriages and rights to stay etc etc etc
Janice, Witney, UK
One of the reasons for the stressed short tempered behaviour exhibited by so many of us is lack of personal and public space.
Every move we make is hindered to some degree, and we are perpetually having to tolerate intolerable noise, mess, filth and offensiveness. There will be increasing violence.
C Smith, Norwich, UK
What makes a country what it is...its people. What is England without English people? Would it still be the same land immigrants wish to come to? (not if the weather is anything to go by) The country is becoming a soulless circus with no sense of self or self esteem.
Josh, Sheffield, England
A pertinent point to Labour's attitude to immigration is that studies repeatedly show the majority of immigrants vote Labour. Politicians unfortunately are more intereseted in getting elected than in the long term good of the country. Hence also ignoring women's rights in some communities.
David, London,
Smith,
Coincidence is not causality.
I very much down the influx of asylum seekers contributed much to the development of the city as you seem to suggest.
Paul, Singapore,
This is really one of the bogey men stories, and seems to promote Singapore, a police state! Plenty of room in Scotland but lots of us moving south to the money, lots of them moving west, I think that's more of a problem than immigration.
What stops overcrowding is shared wealth, nothing else.
Craig, Edinburgh,
It is worrying how gladly we advocate the removal of rights for migrants. The article fails to mention how immigration contributes to the problems of our aging population and low birth rate, and how essential migrant remittances are for the development of poor countries.
Barbara , Croydon, Surrey
The British became rich and powerful with help from its conquests and colonies overseas, now that success in creating one of the worlds largest empires is backfiring as its former colonies try to fit into a country the size of a postage stamp.
Stu, London, UK
Bruce from Washington, most of us are wide awake and know where England went, down the toilet. That is why so many English people have already left, or like me will be out in the next couple of years. England used to be a great place to live, but not any more.
Ray, Clacton,
Dear Rajni,
A good suggestion, however slightly flawed Im afraid.
The BNP would (whatever their rhetoric may be to the contrary) reject and dismiss, not only new immigrants but ALL immigrants, be they fresh or third generation...
I would imagine that may... affect you?
Glenda, Wanstead, England
Electing the BNP on the single issue of controling of immigration is sure way to complete the decline and destruction of what is now known as UK!!
RAJNI SHAH, LONDON, UK
Superb article. We do need realistc solutions not just politcal cant and hand wringing helplessness. We should also not be asset stripping skilled workers and professionals we should be growing our own.And everyone should be greatly supported to have 2 children but not paid to have more.
Ellen, Bradford, UK
I applaud this article. We seem to be governed by such shorttermism. What is the ceiling on our population? Are we building new cities? No No No we are worried because we have lost a few % points on the value of our homes. Who are the planners? Who is thinking beyond the next 5 years? Brown is not!
Garry, Sheffield,
Nigel Paul When one emmigrates/immigrates anywhere one is hoping to make a better life for ones family but in the UK we are building new homes on flood plains because we are so crowded in the South East where there are jobs.Also when one goes to most places one asks first and has a job lined up.
Mark, Birmingham, UK
I'm an Australian here under the HIghly Skilled Migrant Program. I'm not entitled to any Gov't assistance. You may recall Australia was a British colony until 1901 and still has a Head of State called Queen Elizabeth II. I wonder why migrants from any other country are entitled to benefits?
Michael, London, UK
It is to England where millions of immigrants will come, & England which is already over-populated (not the UK). It & Holland are the most densely populated countries in the world after Bangladesh. With growing energy & food shortages the prospect is bleak; the population will not be sustainable.
Dave, Wrexham,
Well done CC The UK and the USA must develope a population policy.It all needs to be sustainable and needs to take into account immigration and birth rate.Yes to a guestworker scheme but no to instant benefits.Most won't pay enough tax to cover them. And people should have to prove entitlement.
Andrew, Oxford, UK
We should be asking questions about the amount of money which the Home Office are now charging for immigration applications? where is that money going? most Immigrants are here to make a better life for themselves and their families, and in many cases this is being exploited by an unfair system.
Nigel-Paul Brissett, London, U.K
These ridiculous estimates of population growth are based on figures from the boom years, as the economy slows down I imagine that migrant workers will follow the lead of our engineers and scientists in heading for countries that appreciate their skills.
Joseph Rogers, Warwick, UK
I agree with Donna Walker, my mother has been a staunch Labour supporter all her life however she is adamant that she will vote BNP at the next General Election. I to feel that none of the other parties are in touch with the way the normal working class feels and their policies are all the same.
ian weekes, manchester, lancs
Look - it's the Project. The English are a problem - to our political masters and to Europe and need diluting. Happily you don't need to be born here to be English - its a state of mind and they will not win.. Lets get back our ancient lands in France and space for our people to grow.
Kevin, ipswich, Suffolk
"And the fairest solutions may be those that look the least liberal"
How convenient for the least liberal among us! & I didn't know hospitals turned women away to give birth on the kitchen floor. True?
I met African migrant, PhD, fluent English & Polish in Oz - working as a security guard
Chris Lee, Melbourne, UK
What is the chance of us achieveing the reductions in CO2 emissions that the government, both in England and more especially Scotland, keep banging on about. More people=more emissions.
David Leslie, Perth, Scotland
The biggest myth in the immigration debate is to think we actually have much control over it. Governments posture as if they do, in practice they don't. Try & stop/limit legal immigration & you just get more illegal immigrants. We can debate policy all we like. It won't change anthything.
Peter, London, UK
The Labour Government has presided over a huge increase in immigration: refused to discuss it: then said it's good for the country & only recently acted to reduce the numbers. At the same time support for the BNP has grown. If immigration policy isn't reformed & entry restricted the BNP will benefit
Donna Walker, Effingham, England
Thank you Camilla for having the courage to state the obvious. But is this Government of traitors listening? No! No! No!
It is too late to save England, which has been totally betrayed by this so called "Government", but it is not too late to give Labour a tremendous kicking just to show them!
Richard Marriott, Worcester, England
This was completely predictable. A radical turn in the rethoric over migration (even in the respectable media) always follows a recession. Many arguments worth noting and considering but overall te tone is now set to be driven by a general sense of economic uncertainty.
Pm, London, UK
The revision of the immigration laws in the 90's has also coincided with a huge growth in wealth and prosperity. London now rivals New York as financial capital of the world, few British citizens are on state support. Immigrants are not the problem, its lack of planning for population growth.
Smith, London, UK
The 'logistics issue' was obvious years ago, didn't happen then, in fact writers still ridicule natives for valuing their passports/jobs/homes for their children.
Won't happen now either & the potential influx is prob under estimated, most to main cities, only £800 pw one bed flats on show soon.
Frank H., London., UK
It's about time this article was written, hopefully the government adopts the concepts suggested here, not only in England but in Canada and the US as well. Tim is right, the major benefit of increased population is increased consumption, hardly a worthwhile goal in and of itself.
greg, Toronto, Canada
Immigrants put a disproportionate burden on public services and have obviously contributed least to the welfare system. It's time to close the borders. Otherwise only the BNP and other Neo-Nazis will benefit from the inevitable social strife if we don't.
Gerald, London, United Kingdom
"Singapore expels guest workers if they become pregnant" ? Better tell a number of my friends to get ready for "expulsion". Er no, you're wrong.
Julian Peterson, Singapore, UK / Singapore
Pray tell me how people can just walk into Britain as you are claiming. Lets not count EU nationals into this. All other nationalities have to pay ridiculous visa entry fees before they can set foot an an aeroplane. Dont get me started on HSMP as a points system.
A. Khan, London,
Of course another solution would be to ask the British people what they want. after all this is a democracy...but that is not going to happen is it, there is no gain for our political masters in referenda.
However when things really hit the fan, and they will, the people will have their say.
JohnW, Oldham,
Points system was started by UK government as a gimmick to get people in to boost state pensions et al. By changing the HSMP rules, a lot of people are now disqualified and essentially forfeit all contributions. Even best estimates put no. at around 50000 in total. How did you arrive at your figure
J. Prasad, London,
In these environmentally conscious days, is there a better solution to the problems facing the world than population reduction? I don't think so.
Restrict immigration; limit child benefit to one child only (no more career single-mothers in sink-estates) and aim for a UK population of 45m by 2028.
Paul, Singapore,
One day you will wake up and wonder wher did England go.
Bruce Northwood, Washington, D.C. , USA
Benefits should be for British citizens only, if you come from overseas to work and work dries up, then take your sorry arse back to where it came from. Make it work like an aussie 457 temporary business visa, i.e. once you stop work you have 30 days to leave the country or find another employer.
Mark Potter , Sydney , Australia Ex UK
we are all wedded to the economic orthodoxy that we need perpetual growth in our economy or the sky falls in on us. the only way it seems to do this is to increase consumption, which equals increasing the population. we need a fundamental rethink about this.
tim, NSW, AUS
France is around 2 1/4 times the area of the UK. The UK is less than half the size of Texas. We really don't have a lot of room!
Colin, shrewsbury,
Is it so clear that immigration is a benefit (much needed wealth, ideas and energy)? I thought it that was not the case according to a Parlimentary report (and common sense). Lets not forget that arguable the greatest explosion of energy and creativity - the Industrial revolution - was home grown.
Shaun, London, UK
Lame attempt to hide an attempt to ask for less foreigners in Tower Hamlets and; no, Singapore does not expel pregnant foreigners in skilled jobs.
Craig Preston, London,