Camilla Cavendish
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Welcome to the post-American world. It has come sooner than we expected. But as bank shares gyrate and the livelihoods of millions of people are at stake, the country I have loved for so long looks as parochial and myopic as a banana republic. Its politicians would apparently rather impoverish their own people - and ours - than risk their careers at the polls in five weeks' time by being seen to “bail out greed”. The global financial system is out of control, and in Washington no one is in charge. No one has been in charge since Republicans and Democrats voted down the bank bailout Bill at 7.10pm on Monday night.
This woeful absence of leadership is a hammer blow to America's status as a great power. I do not mean that America has ceded its economic dominance to Asia quite yet. China and India are still too dependent on the American consumer and foreign investment for that to happen. But America's reputation may not recover from having forfeited leadership at the time when its leadership is most desperately needed to restore confidence in a panicking world.
This is not the pragmatic, courageous America we thought we knew. This is an America which, offered a chance to save the world Hollywood-style, prefers to rerun the show that turned the Wall Street Crash into the Great Depression. The Bill was voted down by Congressmen and women in marginal seats who are fixated not on their place in history but on the November election. Everyone hopes that they will be bribed out of it on Thursday: that is what is keeping stock markets up. But I am not so sure.
It is a depressing spectacle when the only men with vision are political appointees. Without Hank Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary, and Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, we would have had a crash many months ago. Mr Bernanke did his PhD thesis on the 1929-1934 Great Depression. Sadly, few politicians seem to have his grasp of history.
Mr Bernanke understands that what we face is a problem of liquidity. For months, banks have been so suspicious of each other that they have been unwilling to lend for more than very short periods. As a result, interest rates on loans to businesses are now punitively high. The best analogy I can think of is with famine. Professor Amartya Sen established long ago that most famines are exacerbated not by a dearth of food, but by panicking people hoarding food. In the same way, panicking banks are hoarding money. When that happens - as with famine - the weakest starve first. As I write, HBOS looks to be the next weakest in the chain. But a collapse of HBOS is unthinkable, since it holds so much of the savings of the British people.
Confidence must be re-established among two groups of people. Depositors have to be dissuaded from taking their money out - which is why the Conservatives are right to argue that the deposit insurance threshold should be raised to £50,000, and why the Government was right to guarantee all deposits when it rescued Bradford & Bingley. Creditors also have to feel confident that banks will not go bust with their money in it - as Lehman Brothers did. Right now it is the money managers who lend long-term who are even more jittery than depositors.
That second point is not well understood across the Atlantic, but it is understood on this side. The untold story of the past 48 hours is the decisive leadership that finance ministers in Europe have shown. In that time there have been six huge interventions by governments across the Continent. These have rescued Bradford & Bingley in the UK; Glitnir, the third largest bank in Iceland; Hypo Real Estate in Germany; Dexia, which funds local government in Belgium and France; the whole of the Irish banking system; and Fortis, the biggest employer in Belgium with 85,000 jobs, which was so large that it has had to be rescued by the Dutch, Belgian and Luxembourg governments combined.
Each rescue has been different. Ireland moved swiftly to guarantee all deposits, thereby shoring up a system that was not short of equity but was woefully short of confidence. Dexia and Fortis had too much debt and not enough capital - so governments have become part-owners in exchange for cash. But what all these interventions have in common is that they have not destroyed the capital structures. In every case, creditors and depositors have been protected. Europe has learnt from America's mistakes.
Even if the US plan does go through tomorrow, the credit squeeze could create many more casualties before then. Events in global markets move at internet speed: they do not wait for lazy legislators to wander back from their holidays. Many bank shares may continue to defy gravity for a while, but the fact that stock markets are still looking relatively healthy does not indicate that all is well. Stock markets are supposed to take a long-term view. It is the credit markets that matter right now. They take a view of the risks of lending for up to 30 days. And it is impossible to overstate the danger of their current lockjaw paralysis.
The most flattering reading of the turmoil in Congress this week has been that this is democracy in action. Personally, I have never felt more attracted to benign dictatorship. But the reality is that politicians who are using their taxpayers as an excuse to do nothing are condemning those same taxpayers to suffer: savers, homeowners, employees and entrepreneurs struggling to make a go of the businesses that will create the wealth the world needs.
It should come as a desperate irony to every American that the only grown-ups today are in the capitals of Europe. Europeans are forging the way ahead as Washington's childish sulk brings America to a new nadir.
Camilla Cavendish has been a McKinsey management consultant, an aid worker, and CEO of a not-for-profit company. She is now a leader writer and columnist on The Times
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There were many alternatives possible for this plan, that saves banks and leaves tax payers in the cold. The fact that you even don't mention any of the alternative proposals from eminent economists says enough. Do what Paulson proposes, his friends in Wall Street will be grateful.
Heyligen, Heusden-Zolder, Belgium
So if tax payers don't cough up $5,000 each, we're being childish and not brave? Tell you what Camilla Cavendish, why don't you lead by example? Buy $5,000 in stocks today and donate them to a local charity.
Joseph, New York City, USA
The headline is right - democracy does not work for big issues with worldwide implications. Politics has to be local &nationalistic and this case proves . Eg global warming, which will only be solved if the world works together. This cannot happen through democracy. Watch this space !!!!!!
Mike , Anna Maria, USA
I don't blame congress at all - Bush has overseen this free-for-all for 8 years now, there were plenty of opportunites to reign in the hedge funds and market gamblers. But of course the banks were Republican donors as well.
And no he expects the public to bail out his friends?
Owen, London, UK
If "Mr Bernanke did his PhD thesis on the 1929-1934 Great Depression.", as you say, then he is Dr Bernanke, not "Mr"...
Saving Fortis and Dexia seems to be the first thing the factions of the Belgian government have agreed on in months- what a relief that they have finally agreed on something!
V Jones, London, UK
@Simon Allen:
Making God more important then Politics and/or Economics is exactly why the world is slowly going down the drain under the strain of war and poverty.
With God out of the loop, at least we have a chance to make it work.
Erwin, London, UK
One of Hitlers main manifesto promises in mein kampf was a nationalisation of the banks.
I'm sorry Camilla, but the British public have got two years to simmer until the next General Election. How dare the government use our money to build up its banking portfolio. This is still a democracy.
Howard Wiley, Ascot,
Considering that this whole process was brought about undemocratically by poor financial controls, I fail to see the benefit of being told to sit down, shut up and stump up, with no guarantee of getting the cash back. I envy the USA for this behaviour - they actually argue with themselves. do we?
John, Knutsford, UK
The taxpayers who are footing the bill and allegedly being put at great risk are the ones who will untilmately benefit from some decisive action. Its the average joe taxpayer who will to get a loan someday, or earn a return on their savings or have a pension. If the banks go, we all go.
Kate, London,
Mussolini, where are you when all the world needs you?
Jon Maynard, Lansing MI, USA
Eduardo DeSevila-Pierce, Atlanta, USA - are you for real?
Wasn't it Thatcher who was the doyen of all that has gone wrong with her belief that there was only one true god and one true religion - Milton Friedman and monetarism???
Greg McKay, Manchester, England
Camilla, I can normally empathise with your viewpoint. However, you appear to be suggesting that senators are wrong for listening to their electorate. It is this very attitude about 'mother knows best' that has got the US & UK into this mess. Taxpayers money should be protected at the very least!
Stephen Marchant, Newton Abbot, UK
I find it baffling why you (or anyone else) supports throwing $700bn dollars down a black hole. Of course banks are going to warn of collapse if they can get their hands on more cash. And what happens when the markets crash again? Another $700bn/£9.99 - what? Congress are doing what they are paid to
Tony Smith, Rochester , UK
Not at all we need strong leadership from a difinative party,all 3 parties seem to be vieing for the centre ground. I think the Lib-Dems should disband and pin their allegence to Tory or Labour allowing the voter to make a clear choice. The 2 members I belive in most in the House is Norman Tebbit and Dennis Skinner, you know exactly where you stand with each of them!
Dave Farmer, Broxbourne, England
The representatives are listening to what the overwhelming majority of their constituants want. Sad to see that described as "childish shenanigans". I call it democracy.
Anne, Kent, UK
Well said David Danville. Europe is declining. America will always reinvent itself. Europe's problem is it has to high opinion of itself.
Gary Morgan, Cannock, UK
By "leadership" you mean no-questions-asked state intervention?Hardly a tough decision for a politician.The fact that the US hesitates before redistributing the misery is a sign that there is at least some opposition to big government.Wise,seeing as this mess was caused by government monetary policy
Perry, Paris, France
In the US religion and the state are speciically kept separate by the constitution. So why are ALL politicians taking Rosh Hashanah.as a holiday. That should be reserved for the Jews - and Christmas Day for the Christans. Does Congress close down for Muslim holy days - I bet not.
Chris, Ashford, Middx, England
Surely the real worry is that no country, or government, seems capable of dealing with our woes. I would agree that the US is on the verge of losing its power and influence, but nobody is going to convince me that the Euro-trough is any good either, except for those who are making money out of it.
David Gardiner, Wolverhampton, England
Well said Camilla. Would you like to run for President in the US? We are in desperate need of an American Margaret Thatcher.
Eduardo DeSevila-Pierce, Atlanta, USA
Not to worry. We, (America), will survive while Europe, (including "Great" Britain,) continues its century old decline. What has Europe given the world besides colonialism, anti-semitism, world war and appeasment? I am certainly happy to see isolationism returning to popularity in the U.S.
David, Danville, Ca., U.S.A.
why is everyone assuming the diagnosis and proposed remedy for the prsesent financial crisis offered by GWB the only way forward? 6 years ago he and his cronies assured the world of WMD in Irag and its link with Sept 11...
J J FONG, London, UK
I totally agree with the article.
I find it offensive, however, to describe legislators as 'lazy' because they did not work on Rosh Hashanah.
This is a religious holiday. I am not Jewish but I recognise that God is more important than politics or the economy.
Simon Allen, Melbourne, Australia
Paulson and Bernanke should be fired! They have been uttering false analyses since this crisis began and are obviously totally and irredeemably incompetent. Now they want 700 Billion handed to them on a plate. I wouldnt trust them with ten dollars much less 700 Billion. Greenspan destroyed the USA
William Kent, Brandon, Canada
What a rant! The TARP is a grossly flawed bill put together by a flawed and discredited administration. What are a few days of democratic accountability to make this pig fly? Democracy may not be pretty but it is better than the alternative. Bush tried that and failed.
William, Guildford, UK
I am so angry with Self-Centered Congress, self-serving bankers, and selfish corporate leaders. I pay my taxes, pay my bills on time and did not live beyond my means, yet I am being asked to pay for a situation that is not of my making. It really bites the big one!!!!
Aimee-Michelle Gower, St. Louis, USA
two wks ago Euros were boasting "this is a US crisis - no impact on Europe." Now that EU banks are collapsing, they're boasting "our bailouts are more effective" (guess the concept of moral hazard doesn't exist in Europe). Voting on TARP and regulators saving banks = apples and oranges. Grow up.
drew, new york, us
A market is a now thing, not a long term view.
roger sykes, christchurch,
It's nice to have an economic discussion. Only later. Now ewerything is about psychology with a scary tilt into psychiatry.
Sure the provincials in US House are just that. This is what you pay for democracy. So, no stamping of feet, but soothing reasoning with a nudge in the ribs is the way
Felix, Mountain View,
Wonderful that Europeans have at long last grown up. I hope that as fron now on they will stand on their own two feet and not come running to the USA for help when the next war breaks out.
And maybe they will stop emigrating to the USA.
m. smith, Kingston, Jamaica.
This crisis is to a great extent a creation of the federal gov't. The Community revelopment Act is at the root of the problem. you know European style wealth redistribution, which NEVER works.
Dan Carruthers, Boise, Idaho , USA
Ms. Cavendish, have you actually read all 100+ pages of the Bill? Exactly how was this product going to immediately free up credit markets at the micro-economic level, which is at the core of your apocalyptic vision.? Credit worthy debtors are still able to readily obtain loans at the retail level
Robert, Louisville, USA
Is the move by Eurpoe as good as it looks? Ireland are guaranteeing all deposits for six banks. But what about the Ulster Bank owned by RBS, couldn't the action of Ireland result in a run on Ulster and RBS. Another case of unintended consequences perhaps?
Graham, glasgow, scotland
Who are the children and who are the adults? The banks demand less and less regulation and less government, and then the second things go wrong they go screaming to the government to help? "Privatized gains and socialized loss" is not an equitable system of governance.
Ian, New York, USA