Daniel Finkelstein
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The next five years will be the most important of Tony Blair’s premiership. I wish I could tell you that this insight came to me while watching Newsnight, or reading The Economist or something. But I am afraid it occurred to me while watching the magician Derren Brown perform a trick with a briefcase.
For some time now I’ve found it useful to think of successful politicians as people who tell tales. Yes, yes, I know you do too, but I don’t mean it in that way. I mean that the best way for a politician to describe what they stand for is for them to relate their ideas in the form of a story.
Bill Clinton and his advisers, for instance, brilliantly wove together his return from political defeat and recovery from scandals into a story in which he was the repentant but triumphant hero — the Comeback Kid. Margaret Thatcher is thought of as an ideologue, but was really a narrative genius. Hers was the tale of a doughty underdog who rises from suburbia to smite the pessimistic Establishment and save a once great but now declining nation.
One of my criticisms of Gordon Brown is that he lacks a real story, that his speeches are full of statistics and abstract ideas rather than narrative accounts of his own task and the nation’s future. He genuinely believes, bless him, that he can draw a picture of what he stands for and win over voters by revealing a surprise plan for a written constitution or whatever.

There is, however, a problem with seeing politicians as people who tell stories. A narrative has a beginning, a middle and an end. A political life just keeps going. Take Disraeli, for instance. The commonly accepted idea that Disraeli was the ultimate one-nation Conservative, a Tory populist, is at odds with much of the story of his career. It is a myth that grew up after his death and proved incredibly powerful. Whatever Disraeli did, whatever he was, it is as a one-nation Tory that he is remembered. And the Disraeli myth remains an important part of Tory debate.
Which is where Derren Brown comes in. Have you ever watched him? I hope you have. He is simply fabulous. And he’s produced a book, Tricks of the Mind, which is as good as he is. This book explains how magic tricks work. Not how each one is done, you understand, he couldn’t do that or he’d be crossed off Ali Bongo’s Christmas card list. No, what he does is to set out the way tricks achieve their effect, the way they leave you feeling a sense of awe and bewilderment.
And the parallels with politics struck me immediately. Brown’s central point is that “magic isn’t about fakes and switches and dropping coins in your lap. It’s about entering into a relationship with a person whereby you can lead him, economically and deftly, to experience an event as magical.”
Magic, he says, “exists only in the head of the spectator; and though your skills may have led him there, it is not the same as those skills”. He also provides an interesting account of what goes on in the head of the spectator. The more obvious it is to them that they must have been fooled, the more inclined they are to emphasise the wizardry of the magician. As they tell tales to their friends they exaggerate what they have seen, overule any objections, try their hardest to infect others with their enthusiasm. It’s a process you can see in politics any day of the week.
Now, the difference between magic tricks and stories is that stories end, but magic tricks don’t. As Brown puts it: “It is an interesting maxim in conjuring that much of the magic happens after the trick is over.” Brown builds up the tension as his trick reaches a climax, and then, as the audience is relaxing and its concentration wanes, he carries out the final part of his trick and works hard on how the audience will remember the experience.
Seen as a story, the Blair years are over. Seen as a magic trick, the most important moment for the Prime Minister is at hand. It is now, as the tension goes, as our concentration wanes, that he can begin to shape how we remember the whole experience.
This may not be welcome news for Mr Blair or his wife. They probably think it is time to relax, go and make some money and pay off all those mortgages. But his premiership isn’t finished. It’ll never be finished. What he does now, what he says now, will be critical. If he chooses to quit public life altogether, and allows himself to be seen as simply a moneymaking, holiday-taking machine, it’ll not just be the retired Blair that will be damaged, it’ll be the reputation of his entire period in government.
Yet even if he is inclined to take this advice, and keep trying to shape our view of the sort of Prime Minister he has been, one problem still stands in his way. I’m not sure that, even now, Tony Blair has worked out for himself what sort of Prime Minister he has been.
Three quite different, incompatible accounts pop up in his speeches and interviews. There is Blair the Labour leader, the loyal servant of his party, the man who finished his conference speech with the extraordinary promise to his party that “whatever you do, I’m always with you. Head and heart.” Then there is Blair the creator of new Labour and the third way, the man who believes in big-tent politics, who thinks that with goodwill everyone can agree, who believes that the contradictions between, say, equality and efficiency can be swept aside.
And finally there is the battle-hardened Blair, tempered by Iraq and disappointment. This Blair told the Today programme that he thought he had been too eager to please in his early days and then sometimes it seemed as if you can’t please any of the people any of the time. This Blair seeks something bolder than new Labour and stands apart from the party he’s led. It’s hard to see this Blair being with Labour “whatever you do”.
Tony Blair is not the only one who will shape our memory of his period in office, of course. He’ll be called a fraud and a war criminal and all sorts. He’ll have a tough fight arguing that it wasn’t all just a colossal waste of promise.
But if he doesn’t know who he is, what are the rest of us supposed to make of him?
There have been times in his political life when it seemed as if no one could pull off a magic trick like Tony Blair. The question of whether he is a true political wizard or just a kid with a conjuring set is about to be answered.
Daniel Finkelstein is a weekly columnist and Comment Editor of The Times. His blog, Comment Central, is a personal round up of the best political opinion on the web. Before joining the paper in 2001, he was adviser to both Prime Minister John Major and Conservative leader William Hague
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Bas
You think the way I think. We in Tanzania believe still in this 21st century about the witches and head hunters and the wizards or those who with few lines on a paper that you dangle on the neck so no magician can lure you to HIS thinking.
Now. Here is my point. If Mr. Blaire really believed from the bottom his heart after the two parliamentary members walked our (Robin Cook is dead now) that these members has no reason to walk out. There is the reason. Do you want me to send the voodoo man to see if everything Mr. Blaire does is in conformity of the British constitution?
Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD, Dar-Es-Salaam, Tanzania
All three above commentators lived on assumptions. My word is. Mr. Blair you failed the history of England. That is it.
No one will trust you and you go down very bad. No prime minister I know has done so naive things and followed USA as blindly as you have.
What is the point in following USA any way? That is another explanations I would like to have from Mr. Blaire. The economist magazine and TV showed Mr. Bush munching something, may be pea nuts, Tony standing obediently near him and Bush calling him "Yo Blair". This is too much for me. How can English take all that. I am surprised and still need to stay with USA?
Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD, Dar-Es-Salaam, Tanzania
The 'magic' that Blair should perform is staying true to his word that he will serve 'a full term in office' as he promised at the last election, thus keeping Gordon Brown out of number ten. That will over-ride all his failures in office including Iraq and Afghanistan and the nation will be grateful to him. He maintains he still has a job to do and is getting on with it, so he should stick with it and change his mind about leaving office early. When he does want to go the best he could do would be to call a General Election so that the electorate can choose their next leader. I guarantee it will not be Gordon Brown!
Bea, Walton on Thames, , England
I think Tony Blair should be in the next Celebrity Big Brother ,he craves the fame make him a permanent housemate.
Bas, Nottingham, England
When is he going?
Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD, Dar-Es-Salaam, Tanzania
Tony I thought would become good leader , but to my dismay he proved to be very very weak leader.His only aim in last one year of office is the fulfillment of the goal that he will be one of the few Prime ministers who served the country for ten years.
He was weak with Bush possibly justified. He was not able to stand up to Brown was pathetic. Brown would have been sacked by Thatcher or other leaders within days of his chancellorship..
I pity Tony for the acheivements Brown got the credit and for all the failing Tony got the blame..
his memoirs will sell well as he would portay his failing well a good book for leadership 'How not to be a leader.
Vishwanath, Herts, Watford
I think you'll find Tony Blair is ONLY interested in staying in power, whatever it takes, and that includes 'saying the right things' eg 'Cool Brittania'. He is the Showman of the Century, the guy who makes you feel REALLY comfortable, the 'Strong Man' eg Iraq, Afghanistan etc, the 'Action Man' eg constant Policy Changes etc I don't think he EVER wants to leave Office, because his just too addicted to the 'Pomp and the Glory'. Perhaps this 'Cash for Honours' crisis will convince the Police to end our misery and detach this great Showman from his 'Theater of Dreams'.
Ahmad, Birmingham, UK
No amount of post power grandstanding will prevent Blair from being remembered as a weak PM. Too timid to stand up Bush over Iraq, and to G Brown over NHS reform and the Euro. He is a talented actor who has played to the crowd, be they Americans post 9/11, the UK public after the death of Diana or global opinion over aid to Africa. Success in N Ireland has been based on events elsewhere. He has had nothing to do with the economy. His constitutional reforms are muddled (Scotland and the Lords). He has no coherent strategy over crime (witness the shambles at the Home Office after 10 years and 5 Home Secretaries). Education has been improved but our schools still fail 40%. The welfare state has hardly been touched. Civil servants have been given unnecessary pension rights while private sector pensions have been severely damaged. The transport infrastructure is as it was in 1997 and there is no coherent strategy to improve it. House prices have rocketed because not enough new homes have been built. Fundamentally he is not rigorous enough in his thinking to be an effective leader. No amount of spin and no number of chat shows will change that.
J White, paris, France
A successful politician is not necessarily the same thing as a good politician, and the story of their rise to power is almost irrelevant to the question of how well they can do their job. I would rather have a good politician than a successful one as leader of the country, and to be honest, I don't really care what Blair does with the next five years.
Stephen Sweet, North Harrow,
I will remember Tony Blair as a man who had a unique vision of Britain and of Labour, who set in motion an incredibly large number of reforms to bring this vision to reality. Some of them were good and some of them, while not bad, simply didn't work. But the important part is that he didn't actually complete any of these reforms, he just laid the foundations and the reforms will have to continue for years if not generations.
I think Iraq and his attachment to the Americans will hang over his years the way Vietnam hung over Johnson's presidency and together with Watergate, Nixon's. Both did great things yet these were overshadowed by negatives that were as much a result of their personalities as the positives.
So Blair's legacy will not be up to him at all, but rather up to those who have it in their power to either complete his reforms or to abort them. Personally I believe the reforms are for the most part good, and if they are followed up constructively Blair will be considfered great.
Christopher Hobe Morrison, Middletown, USA/NY
An interesting and valid analogy.
From the perspective of the electors, its probably more useful to use this story as an opportunity for self insight into their own beliefs in politics generally, as well as Tony Blair, and how that has changed. The scenario is not unlike that of a consumer who has bought an item, and after the event seeks information, such as specifications and the views of others, to justify his choice. Its also an allegory of the triumph, at least in the early stages, of fantasy over reality in many of lifes experiences.
With the tendency for the real and virtual worlds to seem to merge, the ultimate judgement can only be made from a historical perspective, but keeping most of the people reasonably content for most of the time is an achievement which may be overlooked in the absence of anything worse.
As most people prefer fantasy to reality anyway, maybe we can stay with that.
dr venables preller, Warminster, UK
Reform the empire
Horsley, Perth, Australia
Blair is one of the greatest political geniuses ever - better than Thatcher, Reagan or Clinton. It was not magic he performed, rather political alchemy. He delivered the elixir of perpetual change to Britain.
Richard Corcocran, Tampa, Florida
Well as I see it , Blair does have one last master stroke to pull out of the bag, for crown & country.
He wants to 'get even ' with all the plotters, particularly, the disloyal man at the treasury.
Calling a general election is the perfect & valid way to do this & would stop Gordon Brown in his quest to rob the people of this country.
Do it Tony, we will be eternally grateful to you for at least this one act.
Maggie Millington, Brittany, France
I agree with you about the ideal PM being a neutral personality who will more obviously represent his party than himself. I thus think that John Major was the best type of Prime Minister we have had in recent times. At the same time, as you have made clear, a PM is whatever other people think he is - care to describe him. So any PM should only concern himself at the end of his term with that opinion that could affect his material circumstances, and that seems to be what Tony Blair is committed to do. I personally get nervous about this cry for great policies, and the notion that these spring from a particular personality. But this is not in the field of magic so much as the field of puppetry.
Henry Percy, London, UK
Mr Blair doesn't actually have a clue what he stands for, or what the people want and need. He lets himself be pulled this way and that by vociferous vested interests without seeing that the majority "vested" interest, the public who voted for him, are not well served by the vociferous ones. Thus, we have today, a disparate, fractured and dissatisfied people, splintered into angry little groups, but some are united briefly in the big causes that gain everybody's attention, namely the NHS, immigration, the war in the Middle East, and religion. My overall feeling about Mr Blair, is that here is a man who, having become involved in politics after an indifferent start to a career in law, found that his ambition could be served by his cult of personality. Gordon Brown would have been better to have held his ground in 1995/6, because his bolt has been shot by his association with the Blair years.
SarahJane, London, England
Tony Blair certainly now seems both undecided and uncomfortable in himself even now about when he should go.
Surely the media people like Daniel Finkelstein first need to find out exactly why that is?
From day-one of his premiership in May 1997 Tony Balir seemed to suddenly find himself having to jump-off on the wrong foot.
On arrival at No.10 for the firast time at Prime Minister, instead of getting on and appointing his Cabinet, his made his first priority calling-in Margaret Thatcher.
Surely there were still not some Tory skeletons at No.10 of 7-years before???.
Michael Blatchford, Bath, UK
I think you're right that the years after a PM's tenure is over are the most important, but for a different reason: it takes so long for policies and initiatives to take effect, you really have to wait that length of time to judge what they really did and if they achieved what was promised. For me, Mr. Blair has raised taxation to record levels, raised the public sector to 65% of GDP, made huge intrusions into civil liberties and massively increased red tape. Let's see what we make of him in 2012 - I suspect we'll be blaming him for sowing the seeds of a whole bunch of problems.
Mark Foscoe, Silso, UK
He's a second hand car salesman
david kay, st legier, switzerland
Oh mr Finklestein... can't help but love the way you write. very nice.
nwlondoner, london, uk
Greetings from the American Kingdom,
Long live the United Kingdom;
I like the imagry with the wizard stuff; Although, I am not on a political kick-back or a strategist nor some Government taught special agent. Magic is a secular word. I'd prefer mystical in the air of "The spirit of God." You see Blair isn't telling a story nor are you or I, but rather God himself, lost himself and wrote right out of the pages and something Supernatural happened. I was caught up in His power "God's" and tried to get away, and even in all the insane attempts I only made things more mysterious by God unto everyone. The more I faught God to get away, the higher his revelations forced me into things not many in all of time have seen. It's like a God Capture. That is where I believe Tony Blair is. He's inside of a God Capture regardless of what others do, they (others) will either make things better or worse for themselves.
If he tries to water the story it will only turn more mysterious by God, and if he stays silent, God's spirit will beckon. If he tries to make shy, God will push him into victory and Boldness. Blair is locked into God Capture.
The Cherokee, USA,
The idea that a Prime Minister shapes their legacy to the extent you suggest by the manner in which they behave after they leave office is surely disproved by Tony Blair's two immediate predecessors in Number 10. Since leaving office John Major has remained tactifully moderate and measured in his opinions growing considerably in popularity whereas Lady Thatcher not only backed the wrong horse as her successor but inflicted considerable damage on her party through ill judged and ill tempered interventions. Yet as you writely point out Lady Thatcher will be remembered as the leader who cured the sick man of Europe whereas Major will forever remain the Prime Minister who wore his pants over his trousers and initiated the cones hotline.
John Marshall, Beijing,
Interesting point of view. I think he's a natural magician, he doesn't really think about what he's doing. In fact he often seems to be as taken in as the audience is. My first thoughts on seeing him in action were "This guy is a stage hypnotist", and it always amazed me that other people could be so taken in by him. People like this shouldn't be allowed to lead political parties, they should be lead by boring people with no hypnotic skills whatsoever. Blair is a very modern British form of the Hitler type of leader, brilliant at wowing an audience, full of messianic zeal, ruthless at crushing opponents, totally useless at improving the lot of the people.
John Small, Faversham, UK
When Mr. Blair first appeared on the Political scene, he presented himself as the modern way forward.
He was seen as the answer to the electorates prayers, here was a man who eschewed the pretence of being superior to the electorate, he acted like one of the lads, people felt they could trust him.
As he took power and problems arose, we found that he was not omnipotent, we began to see his failings, but with each succesive general election, what we, died in the wool tories have to look forward to.
A Liberal Party which was little different from the Labour party or a Tory Party still mired in it's mess of self accusation and intent on tearing itself to shreds.
I am not convinced at this stage where Labour is tearing itself to pieces, that the Tory's present a united front nor one that has any concrete and sensible solutions to offer the British Electorate.
Mr. Cameron really needs to convince ppl like me that he has the capability to Govern the UK.
Stuart Geoffrey, Zavalla, Tx, USA