Daniel Finkelstein
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So the Tory policy chief Oliver Letwin thinks that his party is making “a shift from an econocentric paradigm to a sociocentric paradigm”. What ridiculous language. How does he expect anyone to understand what he is going on about?
Surely he realises that the real shift for the Conservatives is from being dispositionalists to being situationalists. Simple enough. Why not just come out and say it?
A couple of weeks ago on these pages, Mr Letwin began a discourse on Cameron Conservatism with some words about Karl Marx. I want to begin with two cars parked in the street back in 1968, one in the Bronx in New York and the other near Stanford University in Palo Alto, California.
The cars had their hoods up and their licence plates removed and they were being watched. The social psychologist Philip Zimbardo had parked the vehicles for an experiment and was recording everything that happened to them. It didn’t take long before the Bronx car was a wreck. Almost before the recording equipment was in place, the first vandals appeared. Mum emptied the boot, the son emptied the glove compartment and dad barked orders.
In Palo Alto, nothing. Actually, not quite nothing. A few days after the experiment began, it rained. A kindly man came and closed the bonnet.
The New York car has become famous. Well, OK, not famous like Jade Goody, but a celebrity at policy seminars about crime. The observation that a car with the bonnet up was quickly stripped entirely set thinkers on the path towards “broken windows theory”. The belief that you can reduce crime by alleviating physical disorder – wiping out graffiti, for example – has profoundly changed policing policy in cities all over the world.
But broken windows theory is not what Professor Zimbardo was interested in when he parked those cars. In fact, all these years later, he’s doesn’t even really believe in it. To Zimbardo, the untouched car in Palo Alto was as striking as the stripped one in New York. The experiment was intended to establish that in different situations the same sort of people behave differently. In the anonymous crowded city, respectable families can become thieves. In the pleasant environs of Palo Alto, they shut the bonnet helpfully.
Professor Zimbardo, you see, is a situationalist, not a dispositionist. His latest book, The Lucifer Effect, is subtitled How Good People Turn Evil and his answer is that any one of us is capable of dreadful behaviour depending on the circumstances we find ourselves in. Our concentration on the personality of evil people, on their dispositions, is a mistake. We should think instead of the situation.
At least half of The Lucifer Effect is devoted to an account of one of the most disturbing experiments conducted by a social psychologist – Zimbardo’s Stanford Prison Experiment. In the early 1970s a group of Stanford students was invited to join in a role-playing game. Some of them, selected at random, would be prisoners, the rest would be guards. They would play prisons for a fortnight. Within four days the guards were abusing the prisoners so badly that the organisers had to call a halt. The great social psychologist Stanley Milgram had once wondered if he could find enough people in the whole of America to behave as the Nazis had. Experimental work had persuaded him that he could find all he needed just in New Haven. After the Stanford Prison Experiment, Zimbardo agreed.
But really, you don’t need a lab to discover this, do you? Look at the Hutus in Rwanda. Told repeatedly that the Tutsi minority weren’t human, that they were cockroaches, they took out their machetes and hacked their neighbours to death. They killed the little children first. Or look at the followers of Jim Jones, at how 900 of them persuaded each other to drink poison, shoving their children to the front of the queue. Give us peer pressure or the cloak of anonymity or the need to adhere to a consistent philosophy or a group code, give us the right situation and its amazing what we will do, whatever our disposition.
Despite this compelling evidence, Conservatives have always struggled against situationalism. And for very good reason. They didn’t want to excuse the Nazi guard his crime or try to “understand” the forces that made the Hutus wield their machetes. Conservatives have always adhered to the idea that individuals are responsibile for their acts. And quite right too.
Yet there comes a point where this clear moral position becomes a bias against understanding. It actually became Conservative doctrine “to understand less and condemn more” and it can never be right to advocate ignorance. When Tony Blair first talked about being tough on the causes of crime, Tories argued that the cause of crime was criminals, a pure dispositionalist response.
Margaret Thatcher’s assertion that “there is no such thing as society” is perhaps the best pithy statement of what dispositionalists believe.
Yet over the past 15 years, situationalist thinking has become more common on the Right. And with David Cameron as leader it has become central to Tory thinking.
As with much that it is worthwhile in the Tory party, it began with the MP and thinker David Willetts. In the mid1990s he started to argue that criminal behaviour being concentrated among poorly educated young males in inner-city estates could not properly be regarded as a puzzling coincidence. In the decade and a half since, he has gone on probing the social causes of individual behaviour. Later today, for instance, he will be giving a major lecture about social mobility.
Others have followed suit. Iain Duncan Smith’s explanations of drug abuse and poverty all concern “social breakdown”. The emphasis on the positive role played by stable families is classic situationalism.
Mr Cameron and his key adviser, Steve Hilton, now lead the situationist pack. They want to find out what makes people good. A central plank of their programme will be to reverse the process that made Hutus into murderers – to encourage people to treat strangers as more rather than less human, to use peer pressure for good ends.
So there you have it. A fresh way of thinking on the Right. Dare I call it a new paradigm?
Daniel Finkelstein is a weekly columnist and Comment Editor of The Times. His blog, Comment Central, is a personal round up of the best political opinion on the web. Before joining the paper in 2001, he was adviser to both Prime Minister John Major and Conservative leader William Hague
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Gareth, London
"Daniel. Letwin's comments were a JOKE to demonstrate Labour's reliance on nonsense management speak. Do your research properly."
And there was silly old me thinking how refreshing it was to hear a politician setting out a thoughtful and rational concept, instead of the infantile emotion-total tabloidese that has formed the whole of our political diet for the last 10 years, and more. Never mind, when the whole structure of society starts crumbling round them, perhaps these clowns might, as a last resort, call upon reason to get us out of a hole. Don't hold your breath, though!
Excellent article by the way about dispositionism and situationism. Quite thought provoking, but that's not much good these days, is it?
Simon Stephenson, Windermere, UK
I've been saying for ages that the problem is that we tell people that it's never their fault it's always the situation, and thereby create an environment (situation) where people feel able to commit crime.
Conversely if you were to tell people it's always their always fault/responsibilty (and that the situation isn't a good excuse) you might be able to persuade them that it isn't a good situation in which to commit crime.
So while the situation must BE the problem, I don't think encouraging a widespread acceptance of this fact is necesarilly going to help the problem. Quite the reverse in fact.
Will, Cambridge, UK
A new paradigm for the Conservatives maybe but - as you imply - not new to other political parties. This seems to be another example of the gradual merging of our "Left" and "Right" political parties. Perhaps the time is now ripe for reformation along authoritarian/libertarian lines instead? (http://www.politicalcompass.org/)
Sara Williams, London, UK
Beautifully put - but the horror of it is that there seems to be a vicious cycle - create a rotten environment - loose social norms in individuals - which makes the environment worse still - and so on. I think we see this in Gaza - we (Israelis) have created environments in the occupied territories that breed people who we can justly call criminal (even after we've left Gaza).
I wish, I wish, I wish your article would appear in Hebrew in an Israeli newspaper as a comment on how our settlement policy creates an environment that makes criminals of Palestinians.
Jonathan , Haifa, Israel
Whilst there will always be some level of crime, the root cause of most of it is family breakdown. I don't see why a conservative would be uncomfortable making that point.
Malcolm McLean, Bradford, UK
As Dr. Deming said: "environment drives behaviour"
There is plenty of conclusive proof that this is so; so why has it been a political debating point for so long?
Mark Baker, Grays, UK
Spot on and fascinating, Danny. I really enjoyed this. We really need to recognise that a balance of both is needed, whilst the left too often ignores the need for people to take responsibility (and introduces wrong-headed ways of trying to help people's situations).
Edward, London, UK
Isn't it a shame Mr. Letwin couldn't say that in the first place?
A very lucid and easy to follow explanation of *hug a hoodie*.
Joshua, Oxford, UK
Daniel. Letwin's comments were a JOKE to demonstrate Labour's reliance on nonsense management speak. Do your research properly.
Gareth, london,
As I recall, one particularly charming item on the original Situationist menu involved a walk through Town A while consulting a map of Town B to see where it led - the journey rather than the destination taking seniority. So-called new political paradigms meanwhile, are of course rarely ever that - merely adaptations or variations on a broader theme with recourse to newly-adopted roadmaps. The Situationists did this in groups of 3 or 4 friends. On the march to the ballot box however, politicians of all flavors in pied-piper aspect attempt to take the entire population along with them for the duration of at least one parliament. The last dramatic 'paradigm shift', as you've briefly touched on, burped up neo-con pronouncements like "no society", "criminals make crime" and "busses are for losers".
Memories of Ronnie and Maggie sharing a joke at Camp David - ahh, how the stomach churns. Paradigmatically of course.
Mark Szawlowski, Istanbul, Turkey
Re:Kong Kek Kuat, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
As you live overseas, how the hell would you know?
phil, worcester, uk
Kong Kek Kuat - try living in the UK where doctors and nurses are being made redundant, our pensions are worth a fraction of what they were when Tony Blair came to power, we can now be arrested and imprisoned without trial, half of our children are leaving school unable to read and write properly, and our Armed Forces are fighting and dying in a distant land as a result of Government lies. Your opinions of Tony Blair may be a little different!
James Miller, London, UK
Of course both disposition and situation play a role. (Just like genes and raising). I know several people who behaved rightly under 'situationally challenging' conditions.
Also in Nazi times there were such (exceptional) people.
Bill, Bristol, UK
'Adaptability' is a defining characteristic of us humans. The better we adapt, the more likely we are to survive. We are subconsciously programmed to do it. For most people, most of the time, we adjust our behaviour to the environment that surrounds us. So society does need to manage this environment. Perhaps the Disney Corp might have some useful words of advice, in this regard, for Dave and the gang as they strive to plot a better future for our befuddled land.
Charles, London, England
Yea. Change they may have, the Tories -- it is a matter of survival to be relevant. But I still can´t see any change of substance; I still don´t see any Tony Blair replacement. There is nothing of quality from the Tories' current presentation. Nobody said it better than Mrs. Thatcher: The Tories don´t need someone who can defeat Tony Blair, they need someone like him. I think this statement is still highly applicable. Actually, I would like to add: Britain doesn´t need someone who can do a better job than Tony Blair (good luck with that), she needs someone who can continue with the job he´s doing. And I don´t see anyone capable of that.
Kong Kek Kuat, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
There are aspects of truth in both the dispositionalist and situationalist analyses. However, it isn't an either/or matter. Individuals ARE responsible for their actions and their life situation does have an impact. The critical factor is the moral code in which the individual is educated and accepts. Moral individuals can and have said no to evil regardless of the situation in which they find themselves; for example, Germans who protected Jews during the Nazi era. Other examples are people born in terrible proverty in slums who go on to be hard working, successful, honourable people. Individuals without a decent moral code born in the most posh circumstances have turned evil.
The Conservative emphasis on "stable families" is inadequate. A stable family without traditional morals - whose belief is that dishonesty and abuse against others is OK - is the real basis of "social breakdown".
The present Conservative leadership are naive and foolish - too inexperienced.
S Mann, Tunbridge Wells,
Hmm. I note you don'\t quote the example of the Germans turning on the Jews in Germany - much safer to stick to the Hutus when choosing to absolve people of responsibility for their own behaviour. Incidentally, councils used quite often to place 'problem' families on 'good' council estates in the seventies and eighties, in a reverse of earlier policy. The result was that decent estates went rapidly downhill. The many millions spent on the North Peckham Estate, to no effect whatsoever, show the perils of assuming that a better envirnoment will lead to better behaviour.
Perhaps the Palo Alto residents didn't vandalise the car because they had too much to lose if they were caught? Harsh penalties work when it comes to changing behaviour over drink driving or speeding. Why should it be any different for other crimes? Give us some examples of where a situationalist approach has lowered vandalism and crime rates.
kate, oxford,
This article actually made me laugh out loud. How dare the Right try and claim as a new 'paradigm' a position that the LEFT have been espousing for decades - that criminal behaviour is more to do with socialisation than 'evil' genes. I suppose it just illustrates the old adage; that on social issues, today's left-wing position is tomorrow's scientifically 'proven' orthodoxy.
Jason, London,
You have wilfully ignored the elephant in your own particular sitting room, even though it is obvious enough in the examples you cite: - that of race.
While everyone is capabable of doing nasty things given the environment, are some people perhaps a bit more capable than others?
What does our experience tell us? Or our common sense?
Bob Grant, Leicester,