Daniel Finkelstein
We've made some changes
to The Sunday Times
It's time for me to return a favour. Way past time really, since the favour I am returning was gifted to me more than a decade ago.
And my act of reciprocation is not a lone one. It's a tiny part of the general exchange of ideas and advice among international conservatives, a new movement with the potential to be as significant as the coming together of international centre-left parties that followed the election of Bill Clinton in 1992.
Back in 1995, as I was heading off to work as John Major's adviser, I asked an old friend to visit London and give me the benefit of his thoughts. He had held senior jobs in the Reagan campaign and the Bush White House and had worked with some of America's best and toughest Republican political operatives. I was sure he would have some useful insights.
Once I'd taken him round a few Cabinet ministers and shown him some polling data I sat him down and asked for his view. What should we do? He opened not with an answer, but with his own question. “If you lose,” he asked, “what will you do?” I stumbled through my response, emphasising that deep change would be required, acknowledging new realities, moving towards voters and their views.
He looked at me and then asked another question. “And are you going to lose?” I'd seen the same polls he had. Of course we are going to lose,
I replied. This was his punchline: “Then what are you waiting for?”
This conversation stayed with me thoughout my time as an adviser. I never once doubted the need for profound change or the futility of waiting until later before beginning the process. I can't claim to have been particularly effective in achieving change, but my friend had ensured I never lost sight of the objective.
Now it's my turn. What do the Republicans do if they lose? They have to change, and change profoundly. They will have to move towards voters. And are they going to lose? It is extremely likely that they will. So what are they waiting for?
A new book, Comeback, by the conservative journalist and former Bush speechwriter David Frum begins with a bracing chapter entitled “Why We're Losing”. He records how the party is losing the middle middle class, previously staunchly Republican; how its big winners in the past - tax cuts, abortion, muscular foreign policy - have stopped working; and how the party is frozen in its response, quoting Reagan at every turn while refighting Richard Nixon's war against long-gone Sixties radicals. He shows how the tide is going out for the Republicans and will continue to do so even if it sneaks one more presidential victory. Unless it changes.
The significance of Comeback is not only its contents, it is also the identity of its author. Frum is one of the most important Republican intellectuals and very much part of its mainstream. Other conservatives (Andrew Sullivan, David Brooks) have called for change, but none with Frum's credentials on the Right. The publication of this new book is therefore a landmark.
The realisation that the Right has to change is taking hold in conservative parties all over the world. Modernisers in Australia, France, Denmark, Brazil, New Zealand, Canada, Sweden and, of course, Britain are among those most vigorously engaged in a debate about the common problems facing conservatives. Parties of the Left, based on universal ideas, have always co-operated. Conservatives parties, with their identity tied so closely to that of their nation, find it less easy to form international groupings.
But now they face a series of common challenges. The first is the political success of the Clinton-Blair Third Way. The instinct of conservatives was to dismiss this as a passing phase and a public relations con. Fifteen years later that is no longer possible. Across the world left-wing parties have accepted capitalism and moderated. This requires conservative parties to move towards the centre to compete.
Next, there is the waning appeal of small-government rhetoric. In the 1970s, speeches about government being the problem not the solution resonated. Now this language is much less potent politically. Government remains often inefficient and too large, but winning support to change it is harder. Conservatives need to show that they can run government, providing services, not merely talking about shrinking them. In Britain David Cameron has to persuade voters he can be trusted with the NHS; in order to win office Sweden's Fredrik Reinfeldt had to persuade voters to trust him on welfare; and Republican modernisers know they have to win over doubters on education.
This is linked to another issue - tax cuts. Always an automatic crowd-pleaser in the past, it isn't working quite as reliably as it used to. John Howard, for instance, lost in Australia despite his promises. In Britain, Conservative pledges have had mixed results. Voters don't believe them. And in America Frum notes a very good reason for this. Mostly it is not the middle class who gain, it is the very well-off.
If conservatives can no longer rely on the old tunes, they have to learn some new ones. All over the world conservatives are attempting to sell themselves as conservationist parties. On succeeding Mr Howard, almost the first act of new Australia's new conservative leader, Brendan Nelson, was to shift his party's position on climate change. Frum urges Republicans to abandon their old “read my lips, no new taxes” slogan and impose taxes on fossil fuel consumption.
And then there is cultural change. All over the world conservative parties have risked being left behind by the vast social changes of the past 40 years. Making peace with the Sixties is the hardest task, especially because while there have been good changes - equality for women, gay rights, racial tolerance - there have been bad ones too: marriage breakdown in particular.
Yet this hard task is essential. Nobody wants to vote for a party that angrily disapproves of how they live. That's the mistake the Left made as working-class people became wealthier and more mobile.
In the 1990s left-wing modernisers encouraged each other, sharing ideas and experiences, driving each other on, allowing the most popular leader at any given moment to help the others. Now modernisers on the Right realise that they must do the same.
There is, as someone once said, no turning back.

Daniel Finkelstein is a weekly columnist and Comment Editor of The Times. His blog, Comment Central, is a personal round up of the best political opinion on the web. Before joining the paper in 2001, he was adviser to both Prime Minister John Major and Conservative leader William Hague
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As a left-leaning one, it is very refreshing to see those on the loyal opposition are considering new paths and ways. There are few new ideas from my side, so new ideas from Conservatives can actually be very welcome. Two heads are better than one.
Kelley, Raleigh, USA/NC
Steve of Wolverhampton, there was once a socialist political society called America than during the 1930s under FDR (The New Deal, remember that) dragged America out of the Depression (caused by the lax governance of the right) and went on to win WWII. I think you need to be a bit less selective about your view of history it only serves to make you look as mindless as the left-thinkers you incorrectly deride.
James, London,
I've only just started getting involved with politics in a world where nobody talks it, and are influenced by the media.
So from my calculations and others, the poor pay more tax than everyone else as a proportion of their income - disposable income. i thought everybody was scared of the poor "if only they knew they'd be a riot" it said in the Times.
In the tories manifesto it says they 'may' (but will) find £4bn a year to pay abolishing inheritance tax. this is supposed to be for 6,000 families, and jonathan ross would get a windfall of £20m if over his lifetime he gets £100m in his estate.
Is there any money left to cut taxes for the middle class? i thought england is overspending, the budget deficit has to reduce first. I'm not looking at an old leopard here, it actually sounds worse than those leopards of long ago.
mark, bradofrd,
The most radical idea of all is effective tax cutting. The right does it by cutting services, when the real answer is to reduce civil servants and make those that are left work for a living like the rest of us.
Taxpayers are becoming fewer and fewer. Almost everyone is entitled to some sort of kick-back from Nulabour's coffers, even if it is called a tax credit. Collecting tax just to give it back to the same people is nothing but an employment scheme for civil sevice chairwarmers. Make them get out and earn their money like the rest of us.
No more state support for people who are capable of working (assuming a civil servant is capable of working).
KR, Stockport,
Of course, the right is not an idealism - that kind of insanity lies at the heart of all left-thinkers (an oxymoron, I know). The right has always been on the side of responsibility and freedom. For goodness sake, just look at the history of the 20th Century . Every socialist political society has started with restricting freedom and ended in crushing it absolutely. The right isn't an ideology because it is based on a common sense view of the world that admits the human condition. Who, in their right mind, could support the political goal of a lifelong equality of outcome for everyone. Who, in their right mind, could disregard the loyalties and affinities of races and cultures and desire some great monocultural, monoracial, offence-free, ambitionless world. Who, in their right mind..? Well, of course, socialists are not of a right mind. There are many wrongs that can be stacked up on the side of the right but they pale into insignificance compared with the idealism of the left.
Steve, Wolverhampton,
If the Right actually *did* deliver tax cuts for the middle classes when they got elected (they rarely do) they'd probably find that cutting taxes remained a potent way of attracting support. The problem for the Republicans is that they only cut taxes for the very rich, while racking up public spending at a far higher rate than the Democrats ever would have done.
WRT cultural issues, there are indeed social changes that the Right will have to come to terms with. But there are issues like immigration, free speech, positive discrimination, family breakdown where traditional right wing viewpoints remain popular.
Sean Fear, London, UK
You'll never convince people about tax cuts, until you've convinced them that you will solve the budget deficit - forecast to whizz past £50bn by 2010.
Solve the deficit first, then we can talk tax cuts. Let me start by suggesting the complete abolition of Invalidity Benefit, saving £2.7bn a year.
GB, London, UK
No. No. No. The Conservative Image was damaged by a few corrupt Republicans and a breakdown in communication between conservative politicians and the public.
In the U.S. women don't know that it is Republican policies that are dissolving the "glass ceiling" in business. Blacks and other minorities don't realize that it is Republican policies that are allowing them to succeed in business and school and government. Amazingly in the U.S., blacks wrongly believe that Democrats were the party of civil rights. These are symptoms of communication failures!
This doesn't mean that conservatives were wrong to fight (against Democrats) for civil rights legislation, or fair housing, or against sexual harassment in the work place, or for accountability in poor performing (usually minority) schools, or for smaller less wasteful government. It simply means we have to tell people about it!
Mike Sorensen, las vegas, USA
Now I know why John Major lost, with advisors like this. Britain is losing its sovereignty to the EU, the social welfare state has sapped individuals and imported a terror-supporting immigrant population that will not adapt to British values, and UK Conservatives have nothing to suggest but more of the same? Give a break! In free market conservatism the engine of change is the private sector. It has produced the personal computer, the web, and the integration of like-minded people across the globe. That's revolutionary, and it has transformed the world, by and large, for the better. Mr Finkelstein's "advice" is a lesson in how the Left controls thinking in the UK/EU. It is not useful for real Anglo-American conservatives across the globe, who are doing very nicely, thank you. Just look at Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Chile, even Dubai. Conservative political parties have their ups and downs but conservative values are winning all over the world.
Bob Phillips , Honolulu, Hawaii
Dan - I sent your article to a left-wing commentator, Dennis Glover, who has been writing in The Australian in a similar vein for the last 10 years about what the Left in Australia needed to do to win. They needed to reject the old class conflict and engage with new voters.
His reply was that if you changed 1997 for 2008 and left for right that he could have written your article himself. Congratulations for seeing its about getting beyond the left-right dichotomy. Or Boo-ya politics. Need to listen to the voters but most importantly get the right leader who can appeal across that political divide.
The US primaries suggest that people are more emotionally involved than the pundits realise.
Bob, London,
With a McCain victory in New Hampshire and the knock-on effect of the Republican nominee (whomever he may be) moving closer to the centre, it is far from certain that the Republicans will lose the Presidential campaign in the US. Allied to a hyper-active French "conservative" President in France, it may be a few more years before the Right the world-over feels the need to change, let alone admit that it was ever wrong.
Lee, London, UK
Conservative (and Liberal) change should include greater equality of opportunity in an Asset Welfare State. This - by encouraging in each new generation enterprise and home ownership and reducing alienation, asset poverty and financial and social exclusion - would shrink Income Welfare State costs.
Change the exemption-ridden 40% so-called 'Inheritance' Tax into a withholding and recording Donor Tax at a flat 10 % on the luxury expenditure of all capital giving and bequeathing.
Deduct this tax paid from any tax due under an entirely new progressive cumulative lifetime Capital Receipts Tax (with exemptions for partners, spouses and cohabiting siblings).starting at 10 %, encouraging giving to those who receive less.
Finance thereby a £10,000 British Universal Inheritance - itself subject to the tax and so means-tested by lifetime receipts of capital that beneficiaries themselves have neither created, earned, made nor saved - for all British-born UK citizens at the age of 25.
Dane Clouston, Oxford, UK
Tax cuts are still popular, it is just the left frames it as cutting services and the right fails to frame it as cutting government waste. That is why Cameron talks about the post-bureaucratic age.
Guido Fawkes, Wexford, Ireland
Right, left or centre have to move with the times. Those who do not, are left behind.
Next, right has to shatter the image or stereotypes surrounding the term: right.
"Now modernisers on the Right realise that they must do the same."
We need radical reshaping of the ideas (more inclusive and not exclusive) and the time bound action plans to implement them as per times. We have to deliver what we say. Our trademark has to be: we keep our promises. Otherwise, there is not much difference between right, opportunist center and loonie left.
With Internet, world is becoming connected and we have to form international alliances where required for our mutual benefits. Naturally, this entails a bit give and take too!
Lastly, we should never go for the radical conservatism (or absurd looking repulsive) and this will shrink the base of supporters and operating areas!
Regards,
Krishna R. Kumar, Udupi, India
"Why we're [read they're] losing?"
Well, let's see now... how about the fact that the neocons spent ridiculously, increased the size of government, lied to start a possibly unwinnable occupation of Iraq for dubious reasons, polarized the country into hostile factions and destroyed the US economy in the process...
Need any others...
Anyone remember "The Right Man"...
Robert Miller, Halifax, NS, Canada
I think this article is a little like one of those programs about how to make a profit from your house being broadcast just as that particular ship sails away.
Put bluntly both the UK and US governments are overspending and utterly reliant on maintaining the current tax take (and borrowing) to maintain the massive state machine.
As things turn ugly on the economic front people will be forced to confront the reality of higher taxes to maintain the state.
The only reason the subject hasn't come up before now is the debt fueled 'boom' causing the population to think that they can have both large government and loads of money in their own pocket.
Mike, Weston,
Daniel, All parties are facing the same problem. They have abandonned the Middle classes on both sides of the Atlantic. We now have societies more polarised than ever with the wealthy able to cherry pick their tax domicile, the poorer classes being bought off by robbing the Middle of its hard earned wealth. What happenned to good ol' Robin Hood - "Steal from the rich, give to the poor".
Conservatives should work together to ensure this new highly mobile wealthy class do not escape their responsibilities for tax. Otherwise we are all heading for political turmoil as the Midle classes get squeezed to breaking point.
On the economic front we also need a Marshall plan (Yes and that may include protectionism) for Western economies so that we can regain some of our lost productive capacity.
Steve Marchant, Torquay, UK
I am amazed at the open admission, in this article, that the right is not an idealism, but a faction that wishes to retain power and is trying to re-fashion their image to suit the new political atmosphere. Some of we relics of the sixties have become a middle aged force, politically and financially, and though we have often had to settle for the lesser of evils, we recognise that a leopard cannot change it's spots. So, if you believe that adopting more appealing stances on the issues that concern us, I suggest you give that some serious thought. The electorate in the countries you cite are not so mindless that they could be led to believe that the political right has suddenly weighed in on the side of freedom and responsibility and abandoned their ties to the selfish, self-serving bastions of wealth.
Good luck with your cosmetic alterations, maybe you won't end up with a platform that reveals it's face-lift overtly. But, gosh, some of us remember Michael Jackson when he was black.
Charlotte Naylor, Acton, Canada
"long-gone Sixties radicals"
If only that were true.
It's these types that have dumbed down the schools, introduced the multi-culti PC hogwash that's destroying civil society and they can do this because so many are now in positions of power in the media.
Stan(expat), USA, USA
It's called the 'Wimping of Society'; Nanny States, Big Government, pseudo 'touchy feely' "I feel your pain" politicians, and the lambs are eager to come in and be slaughtered.
Eric, Ottawa, Canada