I wonder what Lee Jasper, Ken Livingstone's big-mouthed race equality adviser, really makes of the idea of Barack Obama being president of the United States. Really makes of it, deep down inside. I wonder, too, what the Muslim Council of Britain feels about the prospect. Or anyone else who owes their position on the public stage to vociferous campaigning against racism.

I am sure that all of them would tell you that they would welcome such an outcome. America with its first black president! How wonderful! I am equally sure that the truth is rather different.

To help you understand why, I am going to try and answer what appears to be a very different question. What is Bill Clinton up to?

Over the past fortnight the former President has been stumping hard for his wife. Not much of a surprise that, since the man once memorably described to me as “the white trash JFK” is never happier than when chatting up the staff in Dunkin' Donuts, sampling the product while on a flying campaign visit. But his strategy has been a little more surprising. Having built his career on his sensitive understanding of African-American sensibilities, he now seems prepared to throw away his hard-won reputation.

BACKGROUND

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He has been heavily, and reasonably, criticised for “racialising” the presidential fight. In particular, his comparison between the victories of Jesse Jackson and Barack Obama in South Carolina has drawn fire. So why has he done this? Why has Mr Clinton risked so much of the political capital he has built up? Precisely because his reputation for understanding racial politics is well merited. His incredible political intuition (coupled with an unattractive ruthlessness) helps him to see that to bring down Mr Obama it is necessary to undermine Mr Obama's way of projecting his blackness.

Shelby Steele, one of America's leading chroniclers of racial politics, has recently published an invaluable study of Mr Obama. Its title tells you a great deal about its thrust - A Bound Man: Why we are excited about Obama and why he can't win.

Steele argues that there are two political strategies adopted by his fellow African-Americans - bargaining and challenging. He starts bluntly with the assertion that blacks “possess a largesse of moral authority that whites can simply never have. And this amounts to a currency of power.” African-Americans, Steele posits, have the ability to bestow upon whites something they crave and cannot bestow upon themselves - racial innocence.

Bargainers make this deal: “I will not use America's horrible history of white racism against you, if you will promise not to use my race against me.” Bargainers grant whites their innocence up front as a gesture of trust. And in return? Eternal gratitude.

Steele believes bargaining is a spectacularly successful strategy. Everyone wins. It works to combat racism because it grants whites “a good reputation to protect... The beauty of bargaining is that it turns the black desire to live without racism into a white self-interest.” And bargainers themselves are able to achieve iconic status: Sidney Poitier, Oprah Winfrey, Colin Powell, Bill Cosby, bargainers all. And Barack Obama too, of course. He is a classic bargainer.

Each of these figures had another choice - being a challenger. As Steele puts it: “Challengers put all whites in the position of having to chase after their racial innocence. The challenger's code: whites are incorrigibly racist until they do something to prove otherwise.” And challenging can be incredibly successful too. It's just that not everyone wins. Only the challengers do, and in certain very limited ways.

Challengers - figures such as Jesse Jackson and the firebrand Al Sharpton - build their power and their careers by setting themselves up as arbiters. When the radio talk show host Don Imus used racial insults on air, it was from Al Sharpton he sought absolution. He instinctively realised that there was no point seeking it from Colin Powell. That is why Al Sharpton possesses power.

Yet while figures like Jesse Jackson do well for themselves, they will never be icons to those outside their community. They will be feared more than they are respected.

All this Bill Clinton perceives with the same clarity as Steele. All this and one thing more. Mr Obama (like Steele) is not the son of two black parents. His mother was white. And in A Bound Man it is suggested that this is a source of tension. He has to some extent chosen his black identity and wants to hold on to it. Yet at the same time he wants to move beyond the predominant political strategy of the black community - to move beyond challenging. Being a bargainer is a brave and difficult road for a man with Mr Obama's background.

So what Mr Clinton is attempting to do is exploit Mr Obama's difficulty. His comparison of Mr Obama with Jesse Jackson was a deliberate attempt to rob Hillary's foe of his iconic status. He wants Mr Obama to be seen as just another challenger.

Which brings me back to Lee Jasper and the Muslim Council of Britain - challengers, both. Mr Jasper's call, for example, for reparations for slavery was the classic challenger's play. And his reward for ceaseless anti-racist campaigning of this type has been a role as Ken Livingstone's race arbiter and the ability to guide public money towards his favoured groups.

Mr Jasper is in a fight to the death with Trevor Phillips, the head of the Commission for Equalities and Human Rights because Mr Phillips, with his talk of integration, is a bargainer. Mr Jasper sees that if Mr Phillips succeeds, his own power is diminished. Similarly, the MCB owes much of its power to our willingness to allow it to be the unchallenged spokesman for Muslims, to be the judges of what should be considered Islamophobia.

If we want a British Obama then such a willingness has to end. If we want bargainers, then we mustn't reward challengers.

I wonder if Lee Jasper and the others see that this lesson is obvious. For if they do, the last thing they would want is for Barack the bargainer to be crowned with victory.

daniel.finkelstein@thetimes.co.uk

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