Daniel Finkelstein
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A year or so back, while walking in Oxfordshire, the Leader of Her Majesty's Opposition found himself staring at a dry-stone wall and being asked to contemplate the future of Conservatism.
His companion did not ask him to kick the stones, copying Samuel Johnson's refutation of Bishop Berkeley on the non-existence of matter. He asked him merely to look at how the wall was constructed. And in looking, understand the new thinking - exciting and different - that might shape a Cameron government.
Tonight the London School of Economics will be the venue of an important event: an audacious attempt by the Conservative Party's leading intellectual to relate a new Tory narrative. After decades in which his gang has been seen as purely the economics party, David Willetts is going to try to pick his colleagues up and put them down in a new place.
The Oakshott Lecture is the fruit of 15 years' thinking by Mr Willetts. It began with his book Modern Conservatism in 1992 and continued with his pamphlet Civic Conservatism. He wrote of the need for his party to have more to say about community and social cohesion and fairness. But in those days the Tory market for his ideas was smaller. One party leader carried an underlined copy of Civic Conservatism in his pocket and brandished it in conversations, but that leader was Tony Blair.
Now Tories are listening more attentively. They need to. David Cameron has talked of his party being for quality of life, not just quantity of money, and has asserted confidently that Conservatives now accept that there is such a thing as society. But where are the ideas that can justify these claims? Are they distinctively Conservative or simply a capitulation to the ideas of the Left?
Even the tools that Mr Willetts intends to use are novel. For 30 years the most interesting ideas for Conservatives have come from economists. Now it is being proposed that sociobiology, game theory and social psychology power the Tory agenda. Alongside well-known thinkers such as Milton Friedman and Friedrich von Hayek, new names are being bandied about - Robert Axelrod, E.O.Wilson, John Nash, Ken Binmore and others.
The starting point of the argument is, ambitiously enough, the starting point of life. The sociobiologists argue that our minds and our behaviour - not just our bodies - are the products of evolution. That behaviour that made us fitter in an evolutionary sense has been selected over that which did not. This was an immensely controversial theory when first proposed, but over the past 20 years has won out over its critics.
What's new for Tories about that? Isn't this just the sort of crude winner-takes-all, dog-eat-dog, social Darwinism people associate with them? No. And that is where game theory comes into it.
Game theory uses maths and logic to analyse how people should respond to the choices of others. The most famous piece of game theory is the prisoner's dilemma. Two prisoners, separated from each other, are asked to choose between confessing and staying silent. If one confesses and his partner-in-crime stays silent, the confessor gets off scot-free, the other a ten-year sentence. If both stay silent they each get a token one-year sentence. If both confess they get nine years each.
What should they do? The maths is clear. They should both confess. But game theory introduces a twist. If the prisoner's dilemma is repeated over and over again, it can make sense to co-operate - for instance you don't betray until you are betrayed. In other words, game theory shows that co-operation is a natural and successful evolutionary strategy for individuals in circumstances where they have repeated interactions with others, or believe they might have.
This bit of maths explains observations made by biologists. Vampire bats, for instance, feed other bats with extra blood they have collected, even though those others are not related genetically. They expect the same favour in return on another day. This behaviour is known as reciprocal altruism - self-interested and interested in others at the same time.
And we know that it is hard-wired into human behaviour because of the work of social psychologists. Any number of experiments show how easily the response can be triggered. A Hare Krishna devotee presses an unwanted flower into your hand and you are more likely to donate, despite yourself.
What does all this suggest politically? That Tories should design institutions that encourage reciprocal altruism. A dry-stone wall, like the one David Willetts pointed out to David Cameron, does not have any glue or cement holding it together. It holds together because of the way it has been designed.
Similarly, the aim of Tories is not to pour social glue on civil society through public policy, and armies of new laws, nor is to enunciate some new abstract principle of justice that might be at variance with human nature. It is to help society find different kinds of equilibrium.
This new thinking justifies the Tory preference for decentralisation, favouring smaller, independent institutions in the public sector. It explains why you might want schools, say, small enough for pupils and teachers to know each other properly. And hospitals that care about their own reputation and not just the amorphous NHS ethos.
It also explains why the new Tories might want to cut inheritance tax. Traditional free-market thinking rather approves of taxing “unearned income”. Reciprocal altruism shows that such income plays an important social role.
Mr Willetts's lecture leaves questions unanswered and a huge amount of heavy lifting still to do. But I wouldn't be all that surprised if, when the history of David Cameron comes to be written, the subject of vampire bats features prominently.
daniel.finkelstein@thetimes.co.uk
Daniel Finkelstein is a weekly columnist and Chief Leader Writer of The Times. His blog, Comment Central, is a personal round up of the best political opinion on the web. Before joining the paper in 2001, he was adviser to both Prime Minister John Major and Conservative leader William Hague
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Great collumn but hang on...
You talk in your column you talk about developing a "distinctly conservative" philosophy without "capitulating to the ideas of the left" and then go on to talk about "reciprocal altruism".
Surely reciprocal altruism is fundermentally a socialist idea so much so that reciprocal altruism defines socialism! Right wing politicians on the other hand would surely want to free individuals up from the burdens of social altruism (for instance free people from the burden of high taxation) to allow each individual to compete is his limit.
Social altruism is the force that is at play when trade union members decide to go on strike. If a single individual goes on strike he will surely loose his job, however if people cooperate and go on strike together, they may loose a days wages but expect to gain a considerable pay rise.
David, Manchester, UK
Sociobiologists? Game Theory? Bats?
In the old days we used to have COMMUNITY. Some of us remember what community was all about -- sharing, helping, pitching-in, respect for each other, not placing a dollar value on everything one does in society. I think politicians have forgotten that communities (large or small) make up society and those communities have values. People easily spot insincerity and withhold their trust from such a person; but they value honesty. Conservative politicians need to understand community anxieties and act upon them with honest solutions. Not just solutions driven by ideology or a particular economic theory. If one is to have clean water to drink or fresh air to breathe the choice should not rest with ideology, it should rest with common sense -- it seems our children are more in tune with this reality than most adults.
One can conduct all the polling in the world, but you need to ask the right questions.
Patrick, Toronto, Canada
After Cameron's performance in the Commons today at PMQs there is no chance he'll form the next government.
Bob Ashley, Crewe,
People forget that we are all part of the same organism. The Human Race is not just like a wall or an Englishman or a vampire bat. There isn't such a thing as an immigrant - we are all one and one for all. Until it is accepted by everyone that the whole world lives and dies together we are ALL doomed.
The most famous Guru said we are ALL BROTHERS and until we realise this we will have all of the 7 deadly sins and none of the Paradise that is on offer if we work for it together.
E Ann Andrews, Atherstone, Warks
Sociobiology is nonsense. Its scientific respectability rests on the assumption that its proponents are motivated by nothing but pure reason. But at the same time, it predicts that everybody else (and presumably its proponents once they've left the lab) are motivated by the habits they picked up in their evolutionary past, which are not necessarily rational at all.
If you accept the hardline version of sociobiology, this paradox is fatal; if you accept the softer versions of it (as Finkelstein seems to) then you can avoid the above paradox, but then all sociobiology comes down to is "it's better if people are smarter and kinder", which I think we knew already.
Sam, Oxford,
The problem with this theory is that bats are mainly if not entirely motivated by instinct whilst man is gifted with the ability to think and judge. There are numerous examples of humans who show gratitude to their benefactors by despising them because they know that a soft touch will always be a soft touch. There is therefore no need for reciprocity.
John Holland, London, UK
Watch out with all this vampire talk or you'll be resurrecting an old Tory "narrative" with Michael Howard emerging drooling from the grave. Incidentally, please stop saying "narrative" in connection with politics, it's nearly as annoying as a cabinet member saying "let's be clear about this" as they stall for time while they try to remember what Gordon's told them to say.
Neil McF, Southampton, England
Sociobiology is OK up to a point, but Salterism (see Dr Frank Salter's On Genetic Interest) actually does explain the connectivities, and otherwise, betwen us. Salter took forward the work of Hamilton and David Sloane Wilson and produced a perfect but, needless to say, perfectly ignored, theory of Man and ethny.
The problem with it for an aspiring Tory intellectual is that it commends kinship, not the MultiCult. It pressages resistance to the MultiCult, and to the great attempt by our free-riding political elite to oppose the natural interests of a people like the English through race replacement immigration.
Guessedworker, Lewes, England
Gawd, we're doomed.
Patrick, Newcastle upon Tyne,
What a disingenuously false claim: 'Traditional free-market thinking rather approves of taxing âunearned incomeâ'. No it doesn't! Never has done, never will do - that's why you haven't cited any credible examples for this *absurd* claim. When you're reduced to creating nonsensical antagonisms just to flesh out a painfully unconvincing piece of Davite boosterism, do you ever think it would have been better to stay in the SDP? Obviously it would have been better for the Tory Party if you had, but honestly, such, to put it kindly, contortions.
ACT, Westminster, SW1
Congratulations, conservatives, for discovering the science behind altruism, which those on the left have believed in instinctively for centuries. The problem for you is that this insight does not lead logically to a reduction in IHT - quite the opposite. The bats don't feed only their own families - that's the whole point. They look after society. You've finally discovered collectivism, only to squeeze it into the same old conservative mould, distorting it in the process.
Bob, London,
Khaled,
A rational prisoner would only ever confess, as that works out as the least worst outcome for him, whatever his partner does. (9 years against 10 if his partner confesses, 0 years against 1 year if his partner stays silent). Don't forget they're separated and can't communicate.
However if they co-operate with each other and both stay silent they they'll both get 1 year. This total of 2 years for the pair is better than any of the other outcomes they could achieve as a group. Thus can co-operating groups do better (as a group) than groups of individuals all acting rationally from their own perspectives.
Graham, Manchester,
On Herbert Thornton's comment from Canada about immigration and the fact that "the bulk of the nation" want it stopped. I assume he is a British national (or is a Canadian showing reciprocial altruism) so has benefited from the freedom of international immigration...could be deemed as a little hypocritical.
Whilst I concur with the sentiments that politicians are detached from reality, I'd trust them to be closer to public opinion than some old Herbert in Canada.
I live in Hackney in London which no doubt has one of the highest counts of different nationalities in the country and all the people I know love the place for that very fact.
I think that Herbert could benefit from using the concept of reciprocial altruism and remembering that it should be applied unequivocially not just to certain people.
Dave W, London, UK
Doing well in life is not just a product of your IQ. It also has a lot to do with your EQ - your emotional awareness/self-management and relationship intelligence. Kids that go to fee paying or grammar schools tend to do better in life because the school often tries develop the whole person - with team sports, drama, a culture of respect, etc - all helping to grow a sense of fair play and reciprocal altruism (RA).
In state schools today there tends to be far less practical experience of learning to value RA or socially experiencing the benefits of developing EQ. In fact the league table cuture in state schools creates an environment where the development of the whole person is often forgotten - and with no positive counter philosophy kids often find that they need to learn a culture of disrespect and antisocial behaviour in order to be accepted by their peers. If any government actually cares about socially underpriviledged children it needs to sort this deficiency out.
Stacey Stephen, Kirkkonummi, Finland
The Prisoner's Dilemma is the pons asinorum of game theory. For someone like Daniel to get it sooooo wrong inspires little confidence that the idiots actually responsible for party policy will cope. And one thing we've learnt from post-war history is that half-arsed application of game theory makes things worse, not better.
The Dilemma is actually a multi-move game, not a single-move game, and the correct strategy is to initially offer to co-operate and thereafter do whatever your opponent did at the last move. Which I suppose could be seen as a metaphor for Mr Cameron's strategy at Question Time.....
Ian Kemmish, Biggleswade, UK
It shows Conservatives are thinkers and searching out new ways of viewing and interpreting the space that we all inhabit.
Reciprocal altruism sounds good to me ; self interested and interested in others at the same time. A bit like `take care of yourself` because it`s only through caring for yourself that you can then care for others. `Learning to love yourself is the greatest love of all` because you`ll then love others. I think I get it. I`m doing alright, how are you doing ?
Jo Sullivan, Liverpool, Merseyside
"The maths is clear, they should both confess" -- eh? If both prisoners confess they each get a 9 year sentence. If they both stay silent, they both get a 1 year sentence. So how does maths demand that they confess and end up with a 9 year sentence? Is it more probable that they will not cooperate and so are more likely to confess? Or should they have made a pact before carrying out the crime to ensure they both come out with the same sentence? I don"t understand Mr Finkenstein's take on game theory.
Khaled, London,
I find it astonishing that Tories - in 2008 - are seriously debating whether they should care about their fellow human beings! A Nietzscehan disdain for one's kind is an acceptable stance in the new "caring" Tory party?! For a significant number of Tories, adhering to the values of the modern world (or seeming to) is merely a ruse for media consumption? This column affords an utterly bizarre glimpse into the Tory's secret world.
The reveleation that they ARE debating thus seems to confirm my suspicion (often dismissed because it seemed so unpleasant to contemplate) that Toryism is driven to a significant degree by odious individuals - by base impulses rationalized as ideology.
Steve Dale, London,
Daniel Finkelstein's piece sounds very high-minded and sophisticated, but it has little relation to reality. The bulk of the nation are much more concerned about two other things.
First, they are utterly fed up with immigration. They want it stopped (and if possible reversed).
Second, they want to be consulted how far (if at all) their country should be subordinated to the E.U.
Unless the Tories have the common sense to understand this and to adopt policy on these matters that is completely (and believably) the opposite of that of the Labour Party, huge numbers of electors will simply not vote.
Sadly, if the Tories announce that they will stop immigration and will hold a referendum on the E.U., people are unlikely to believe them so long as the Tories are led by David Cameron. Cameron's silence on these vital areas has made the Tories unelectable.
Fear and desperation will instead drive many to vote for either UKIP or the BNP.
Herbert Thornton, Victoria, Canada