Daniel Finkelstein
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It took a long time. Longer than it should have. But in the end, the penny dropped.
Back in the 1980s, Tony Blair, a junior Shadow minister, was sitting quietly with his constituency agent, John Burton, when he suddenly exclaimed: “You know, John, I understand it all. Finally, I've got it.” When Burton asked him what he was talking about, Blair triumphantly replied: “Microeconomics!”
Twenty years later the remark seems charmingly naive. Could a Labour spokesman with an economic portfolio really have been so pleased to understand the basic ideas of supply and demand, pricing and competition? But at the time it was a considerable intellectual achievement for a politician of the Left, and it was to prove an important political moment too.
I wonder whether in a couple of decades' time, our own fumbling first acquaintance with new thinking will appear similarly amusing. For an intellectual revolution is under way that will change the way we think about public policy just as the free market economists did in the 1980s. I wonder whether one day soon a future party leader will turn round to his agent and say: “Finally, I've got it! Human behaviour.”
Those who doubt that there is something going on in the world of ideas should get themselves a publisher's catalogue. One month there is a book called Nudge, the next a book called Sway. A volume called Predictably Irrational follows another called Irrationality. Since the success of Malcolm Gladwell's Tipping Point, books on tipping points have reached a tipping point.
Behind this publishing explosion, with its PR hoopla, is real and solid intellectual progress. It comes from two streams of thought, developing alongside each other. The first is the idea of evolutionary psychology.
The breakthrough came with E.O. Wilson's controversial work Sociobiology, first published in 1975. Since then a number of academics, including familiar names such as Richard Dawkins and Steven Pinker, have illuminated aspects of human behaviour by explaining how they arise from our Darwinian struggle. For example, we reciprocate favours because we are the genetic descendants of those who survived to breed because they reciprocated favours.
Why was this work controversial? Because it argued that behaviour is partly inherited, offending against those who believe that we are born completely free of such influence. As Pinker explains in his unmissable book The Blank Slate, the critics have really lost the battle, even if they haven't given up.
The second stream of thought is behavioural economics. For twenty years now, some economists have been looking at the psychology of economic decision-making. Instead of seeing humans as rational calculating machines, behavioural economists have been conducting experiments to assess how real choices are made. On paper, two alternatives may look economically identical. But the way that they are framed and the context will, in the real world, determine the choice. Human beings are, for instance, highly loss-averse. They will take risks to avoid a loss, while behaving conservatively when a possible gain is in the offing.
This work has revolutionised economic thinking and helped to win Daniel Kahneman the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2002. This was the prize that Milton Friedman won in 1976, just before monetarism swept all before it.
All this does not overturn classical economics. It enriches our understanding of it. It suggests that there is such a thing as society and you can't understand the impact of policy on individuals unless you realise that. We are not just individuals. We abide by social norms, reciprocate favours, stick by our commitments, are desperate to remain consistent and are tribal.
And you can see already this work seeping into the political mainstream. There's been a flutter of interest in Nudge and in Robert Cialdini's seminal book Influence. George Osborne has written this week of social psychology, and his Tory frontbench colleague Greg Clark takes a close interest. On the Labour side James Purnell shows some familiarity and the former Blair aide Matthew Taylor is turning the Royal Society of Arts into one of the leading think-tanks in this area.
The most important step forward has come with David Cameron's correct insistence that social change is as likely, or more likely, to come through influencing behaviour as it is through regulation.
Yet the integration of the academic work on human behaviour into politics is still very much in its infancy. It is roughly now where economic understanding was in about 1978, before the Thatcher revolution. It is possible, indeed usual, to have entire policy debates in which the science of human behaviour doesn't figure at all.
For instance, in the past two weeks we have had discussion of obesity and of knife crime. Social norms have hardly figured. If everybody thinks that everybody else is getting fat, then more people will put on weight. The campaigns designed to reduce obesity may be spreading it. Similarly the very idea that every young person is carrying a knife increases knife crime. The obvious route of making such behaviour seem odd and isolated appears not to have occurred to any major politician.
Similarly, the work of social psychologists on the power of public commitments is entirely absent from the debate on marriage and on reducing delinquency; and our struggle to overcome our tribal instincts doesn't figure in the discussion of immigration.
It now seems hard to imagine political debate without rudimentary economic understanding. But we haven't always had it. It's quite a recent thing. The time will come when we feel the same about social psychology.
Daniel Finkelstein is a weekly columnist and Comment Editor of The Times. His blog, Comment Central, is a personal round up of the best political opinion on the web. Before joining the paper in 2001, he was adviser to both Prime Minister John Major and Conservative leader William Hague
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The Law if Unintended Consequences is the politicians' mealy-mouthed descriptor for the Rule of the Absolutely Predictable Outcome. This applies whenever some well-meaning but vaccuous political fool brings about legislation to change behaviour to what he or she thinks is 'correct'.
derek, edinburgh,
Clear evidence of how far we are from ever having government by individuals representing their constituents when all the candidates are drawn from self interested organisations with aims to control our behaviour as they deem fit, by opaque psychological methods if possible. Derren Brown for PM?
Bob, Reading,
Who would have thought that a move to bi-weekly rubbish collections would lead to an increase in fly-tipping? Who would have thought that increasing car tax on gas-guzzlers would increase sales of smaller less fuel efficient second-hand cars? People with that rarest of commodities - common sense...
Mark, Reading, UK
But is social psychology not just one, theoretical, branch of the psycholgical sciences that has no reason to take precedence over any other? Economics sucessfully charts market forces, but social psychology is as unproveable as the now unfashionable theories of Freud - enlightening but not testable
Emma Whipday, Oxford,
why is it claimed that regulation can't change behaviour yet it is laws and regulation which are widely bemoaned for changing behaviour ie creating problems.surely Cameron's proposal to recognise marriage thru the tax system is 'regulation'.
sue, Leeds,
...it seems 'nudge' (and this 'new' theory providesa language cover) is the word used for a regulation one politcally approves of. and regulation is used to attack nudges one politically disapproves of.
sue, leeds,
FYI: Prof. Thaler, who is advising Barack H. Obama, is well-known to those who follow the psychology of finance. They embrace the "negative option," which requires all to belong to social programs, barring advanced skills.
http://experts.uchicago.edu/experts.php?id=412
Cl. Alex. Chien, Chapel Hill, N.C., USA
It's not the politicians that create such publicity - it's the media, and the politicians just react...
Gina, Swindon,
There are also sections of "society" who are the progeny of the selfish and the feckless - therefore further calculations will be required before the actions of Homo Sapiens can be reduced to equations.
Frank, Plymouth, England
So hopefully we are going to abandon the Marxian/Christian denial of genetics that has provided the mainstay of the reactionary world view over the last half century. For decades the West has been reminiscent of Manchu China desperately clinging to the Confucianism that was the cause of its ills.
Eric Skelton, Cardiff, Wales
Governments try to do too much. Society is like markets, unmanageable and most efforts are counterproductive like comprehensivisation exacerbating social divisions and lowering standards. Far better that governments confine themselves to doing only what they alone must do like making law and police.
R Mason, London, UK
So what's new? I won't let you steal the shirt off my back but neither am I willing to risk this very same shirt on some hair brained venture. Keeping what you have is a lot more self interested than gaining what you don't have or put another way, 'A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush'.
DA Maples, Petesfield, Hampshire
As a (retired) teacher I am constantly amazed at certain legislation. Some new laws invoke the behaviour that they purport to revoke! Take for instance "weight tax" on rubbish. The effect will be lots of fly-tipping. Instead of saving money, councils will have to fork out on cleaning this mess up.
Wilma Prins, Vossemeer, Netherlands
Well at least that solves one problem! For years I've been wondering why the chicken crossed the road.
John Muir, Newnham,
I think David Brooks put it well in the NY Times yesterday:
"Saying farewell to the sort of horrible social engineering projects that dominated the 20th century is a major example of human progress."
Lets not start another round. Please.
Theresa Klein, Tucson, USA
"new thinking is seeping into politics.." NEW? Any sort would make a change!
S. Barraclough, Huddersfield, W. Yorkshire
Given the relative lateness to this apparent trend, it is gratifying to note that it is not politicians who run the country.
Abdul Majeed, Bradford, West Yorkshire, UK
"Social change is as likely, or more likely, to come through influencing behaviour as it is through regulation."
I thought regulation was one way of influencing behaviour. What exactly are you thinking of here?
JFP, Ohio, USA,
Evolutionary psychology judges people as animals, and is most frequently used to defend sexism as "natural". It's anti-thought. Dawkins isn't a perpetrator, though he brilliantly conceived of memes. A government that expects us to be permanent slaves to memes (or alleged idea-genes) sounds horrible.
_Felix, Nottingham,
Eventually theory will catch up with common sense.
Andrew Burrows, Brighton,
I wonder whether one day soon a future party leader will turn round to his agent and say: Finally, I've got it! Human compassion.
Raymond, Glasgow, Scotland
Governments should confine themselves to protecting us so that we can go about our business without fear and provide a safety net for when things go wrong. Leave the anthropology, psychology, etc. to the experts. Governments only last a few years and ministers a year or two so they know nothing.
R Mason, London, UK
Sounds like grasping at straws. The latest gimmick. Cialdini's book was first published in 1984.
By the way I've got some amazing snake oil that does the trick and I'm selling it at twice its normal price so its got to be worth it (one of Cialdinis points )
David Cartright, Birmingham,
Economists had theories that were at odds with everyday experience. Now they are recanting, but are saving face by pretending they have had some new insight that they need to communicate to the rest of us. That's human nature, sure enough, or "cognitive dissonance" (to borrow from another fad).
Jamie, Bolton, UK
It's long puzzled me why Anthopology has been absent, or excluded, from the so-called debate on immigration and multiculturism.
Ken Leyland, Liverpool, U.K.
Isnt there something wrong about Government seeking to influence behaviour through psychology if policy isnt based on the drivers of behaviour in the first place? Otherwise it looks like manipulation.
Lutobar, Leek, Staffordshire
Nothing new or unknown to previous generations before left-wing liberalism denied the inherent nature of the individual had anything to do with behaviour. Individuality must be supressed and replaced by State imposed uniformity according to the equation equality of input must = equality of outcome.
John Bowman, Sarlat, France
The notion that you can have a gene for trait 'A' (i.e. irresponsibility) has been discredited. Certainly your genetic disposition may give you a propensity towards trait 'A' (i.e. reinforce risk taking) but the path from gene to biological effect is slightly more subtle than you seem to suggest..
APL, Oxford,
"They will take risks to avoid a loss, while behaving conservatively...."
Except when they don't. "Irrational exuberance" didn't become a catchphrase for nothing.
The tendency to use without comprehension or conviction any buzzword which will win the next election - _that's_ human nature!
Ian Kemmish, Biggleswade, UK
It's about time. The work of economists had become so irrelevant and self-centric. But I see no reason why this is an intellectual revolution. Surely, the economists have just discovered the existence of 'sociology' and 'psychology''and they are now passing this as if it were something new.
steven, birmingham,
I quite like Noam Chomsky. Especially his views on the relationship between the US and Israel.
But you won't publish this blog will you Dan?
Austin Tassletine, South West , UK
The trouble with Darwinian explanations is that when simplified in a politicans primitive brain they can take on the form of eugenics, and we all know where that can lead?
kevin, Lincoln, UK
To these two could be added our increased understanding and application of complex self organising systems theory. This is gradually leading to a totally different way of understanding, for example, the weather, biology, organisations and cities. Despite this, we still hang on to Cartesian thinking.
Andrew Rooney, Adelaide, Australia
I wrote a book 11 years ago for a woman I once loved. I never published it then because I thought it might get me killed.
Now I think the world might be ready for it.
So yes the world has changed radically.
From monotheistic to multicultural. On an emotional level.
Believe it. It's true.
Rhys Jaggar, Leeds, UK