Daniel Finkelstein
Win a fitness package worth more than £3,000
I can't remember if I've told you about the Kinnock Test. I don't think I have. It's my party piece. Perhaps that's why I don't get invited to very many parties.
The Kinnock Test is this - do you, on reflection, think it would have been a good idea for the country if Neil Kinnock had been elected Prime Minister in 1992?
Naturally I don't bother asking Tories this question, since, on the whole, their answers wouldn't be interesting. But I find the responses I get from Labour people endlessly fascinating. Particularly the replies I get from Blairites.
You see, for all that the Conservatives fell apart in the 1992 parliament, I still think it was clear that a Kinnock government would have been worse. No one needs to tell me how bad things got by 1997, because I was there (I always insist on the retention of that comma). But still I assert with confidence that the voters did the right thing putting the Conservatives back in power.
Neil Kinnock was entirely unsuited to being Prime Minister. His endless whirling speeches showed that. As John Major pricelessly commented, as Kinnock didn't know what he was saying, he never knew when he had finished saying it. And alongside this unsuitability was Labour's programme, still only partly modernised and containing a ragtag of unfunded spending promises and threats of greater regulation.
Some Blairites understand this. They would, as I would cheekily put it, pass the Kinnock Test. Party unity might make public confession difficult but I reckon Alan Milburn and Stephen Byers would both pass the Kinnock Test. I would think Blair's old pollster Philip Gould would pass it too, for all that he worked incredibly hard to get Kinnock elected. And Blair himself? That's a no brainer.
On the other hand I am sure that Charles Clarke thinks Kinnock as premier would have been a capital idea. And Blair advisers Alastair Campbell and Peter Hyman would fail the test too. James Purnell? Pass. David Miliband? Fail.
The Kinnock Test is thus an important way of classifying Blairites. A Blairite who thinks Kinnock would have been a good prime minister must believe that Blair's changes were mainly necessary in order to get elected. A Blairite who passes the Kinnock Test accepts that Blair's changes were required in order for Labour to be fit to govern. There is quite a big difference between those two positions.
As I pestered my centre left friends, one of them provided a striking response. Not only, he said, did the electorate get it right in 1992, he couldn't think of a single election since universal suffrage in 1928 where the voters had got the election wrong. And you know what? I think my friend has got a point.
The proposition is that in every contest in these last 80 years the party that was more fit to govern has been victorious. Sometimes both of the main offerings were weak and unappealing, often the winner wasn't much good, but always the winner was better able to conduct the business of government than was the loser.
There are a number of elections for which this proposition is, if hardly uncontroversial, still clearly correct. I thinks this holds for 1931 (where the National Government swept home, Labour having collapsed in disarray), 1935 (another National victory); 1945 (Labour's landslide); 1955 and 1959 (Tories defeating a divided and incoherent Labour opposition); 1964 and 1966 (Wilson's triumphs over the tired and outdated Tories); and for 1979, 1983, 1987 and 1992 (the market revolution having to be drummed into Labour's head until they at least partly got the point).
My contribution is to admit that even though I voted Conservative in 1997, 2001 and 2005 and wanted to see the party advance, it wasn't ready to govern.
This leaves a few contests to argue over. In 1929 Stanley Baldwin probably deserved to lose, having run on the slogan “Safety First” - an unbelievably complacent thing to do with unemployment running at 10 per cent. And Labour probably deserved its first proper chance to govern, even though it made a mess of it fairly rapidly. But the question of who was the better isn't clear cut. Then again, neither was the election result - the Tories had more votes, Labour more seats and no one had a majority. Right, in the circumstances.
Some might wonder about Labour being overhauled by the Conservatives over the two elections of 1950 and 1951. Yet this is because, since its passing, the Attlee Government has been canonised. At the time it was exhausted (in some cases literally dying), weak, out of ideas and incapable of responding to the aspirations of consumers. It needed to be replaced - right again.
When I have tried this out with colleagues, it is the elections of 1970 and 1974 that lead to the most debate. Those on the Left give 1970 as the big error by voters, while those on the Right think that in 1974 voters gave the wrong answer to Heath's question: “Who governs Britain?” In effect, the electorate answered: “The unions.”
What made it hard for voters to get it right in those elections, of course, was that no right answer was available (and don't say the Liberals, who were led by a man about to be charged with conspiracy to murder). Both Heath and Wilson were on the wrong track entirely. But I think it was, on balance, the best of a bad job to put Heath in and then to boot him out. In 1974 Wilson's crew weren't fit to govern but Heath's management of the economy had been so spectacularly, bewilderingly bad that turning to almost any alternative might be excused.
Do the victors just feel like the right answer because they won? Probably, a little bit. But I think that there is more to it than that. I think the history of the past 80 years shows that for all its terrible flaws, there is still something rather wondrous about British democracy.
daniel.finkelstein@thetimes.co.uk

Daniel Finkelstein is a weekly columnist and Comment Editor of The Times. His blog, Comment Central, is a personal round up of the best political opinion on the web. Before joining the paper in 2001, he was adviser to both Prime Minister John Major and Conservative leader William Hague
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Read our exclusive 100 Years of Fleming and Bond interactive timeline, packed with original Times articles and reviews
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
05/2005
£13,500
08/2008
£109,950
2006
£10,750
Great car insurance deals online
£Excellent+ executive benefits
Torres and Partners
London
£49,229 - £62,035 pro rata
Charity Commission
London/Liverpool/Taunton
Alstom Power
Europe
Six Figure
Rolls Royce
Midlands/Europe
From £89,950
Great Investment, River Views
Special Offers now available
At the new sophisticated
Encore Las Vegas Resort!
Cruise the Islands of Hawaii - Pride of America
List your property with two leading travel websites
Great travel insurance deals online
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths
News International associated websites: Globrix | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2008 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
Indeed, the British voter never seems to get it wrong. In fact at every election more people vote for the winner than the loser. Fascinating.
Greg, Gloucester, UK
Tories in 2004? Wouldn't they have done a better job than the present Government in every way?
Tony Smith, Rochester, UK
If Kinnock had won in 1992 then Labour would have suffered the humiliation of ERM ejection which would have afforded the Tories the opportunity to say "told you so" and Labour would have been finished forever. So, Major's victory in 1992 saved Labour and was a disaster for the Tories.
Martin Smith, London,
They should have voted for Ashdown as PM- far more convincing than Major, Blair, Kinnock etc
Simon, London, UK
Most of them are a load of rubbish. They all make promises which none of us believe and every five years we have to vote for something or somebody and they all make a balls up of whatever they do.
The only important thing for a political party is to be in power then keep it by fair means or foul
Phil de Buquet, Newport,
Will (London), from 1945 to 1964 is 19 years. The Tories were in power for 13 of them.
Ken Leyland, Liverpool, U.K.
I agree with Danny's friend except that I would say that, given time, the voters always make a sensible decision. Tactical cock-ups in 1992 frightened the voters and they sensibly switched to the Tories. By September they had realised their mistake and steadily polled their intentions for 1997.
Rupert Butler, AXMINSTER, UK
With the benefit of hindsight, Kinnock winning in '92 could have been a good thing. Sure, it would have been unpleasant at the time, but the pro-euro cabal leading the Tories would have been finished & a returning Tory goverment in '97 may have pledged to repeal Maastricht & even leave the EU.
George Miller, Basingstoke, UK
The "Kinnock Test"? What kind of test is it to which no-one knows, or can know , the answer?
And when did John Major ever say anything worth repeating? He, don't forget, privatised the railways. Did we really get it right electing him to do that? Sorry Danny, could do better.
Ken Leyland, Liverpool, U.K.
No, you've lost me there, Daniel. What's the importance of the retention of the comma?
John, Shipley, W Yorkshire
Two major improvements in the UK system would be: 1) elections every 4 years to a set timetable; the election date being set at the whim of the Prime Minister is quite ridiculous. 2) More use of the referendum on issues of major importance, such as the European "constitution".
Rod Garr, Miami, USA
The stupidity of the public voting the present shower in repeatedly, You have to blame the opposition for not putting up a credible alternative. Thatcher's policies made our society the way it is - both the good & the bad, Good stewardship could have smoothed out the bad instead we got Tony & Co.
am, letchworth,
Was it really sensible for an exhausted Britain in 1945 to put statist labour in?
Roger Pearse, Ipswich,
The election that gave the wrong result was the 1983 election. If Thatcher had been sent packing then the Tories might have been forced to dump their divisive policies, as they are doing now, and elect a less ideologically driven Leader. North Sea Oil money could have given us modernisation.
A Clark, Basing, england
I agree with John from Thailand and Janet from Sydney.
For the same reason, part of me rejoices with every imbecile decision from the present ship of fools.
Steve, Cambridge,
I reckon we should have a maximum of four years between elections, as in the US. Five is too long, as we're seeing now.
Barry, Wallington, UK
Neil Kinnock was the best PM we did not have and Tony Blair was the best tory party leader they did not have.
Paul Gibbons, Milton Keynes, UK
Didn't the voters get it wrong in 1945?
You can trace britains slow growth (compared to other countries who took part in the war) between 45 and the 60s to the high taxes levied for the welfare state. You can also trace most of the nationalised industries and all the problems associated to 1945.
Will, London,
Electing Blair-Brown in 1997 was a disaster that this country may never recover from fully. Except that he was a staging post from Foot to Blair, Kinnoch was a complete irrelevance.
Adrian Gilbert, Tonbridge,
The voter doesn't chose the government, the fruit machine electoral system does. In 1929 a new deal Lloyd George would have been better, not having the apppeasement tories in the 1930's would have been better, Thatcher was much pain, little gain. Electroal reform in any year would have been better
Tom, Aldershot, UK
John from Thailand took the words right out of my mouth!
Janet Davis, Sydney, Australia
If the electorate always get it right, let's have more of it. A referendum once a year on key issues; hanging, the EU, the House of Lords, MP's pay, war-mongering, dissolution of the UK .......
Richard Black, Gateshead,
I don't see how the voters made the right choice in 1945. The Conservatives were certainly able to govern and in Churchill they had a leader who was universally respected. The 1945 election saddled this country with socialism, ensuring Britain's relative decline until Thatcher's victory in 1979.
Robert Thompson, Richmond, Surrey.,
At the next election, with or without Mr Brown and regardless of a deteriorating economy, the "Let's give the other lot a go" theme will win the day. Wonderous!
William Grierson, Kimpton, UK
That's why successive Governments have refused to let us vote on EU Treaties, including the latest Lisbon ConTreaty. They thought we'd get the answer right! This isn't a democracy: it's a Parliamentary dictatorship & all the major parties have basically the same view on membership of the EUSSR.
Donna Walker, Effingham, England
The mere phrase "the voter gets ir right" betrays a fundamental and near universal (amongst politicians) misapprehension about politics.
It is NOT the voters' job to represent the politicians. It is the politicians' job to represent the voters' values and priorities. In the UK, none even try.
Ian Kemmish, Biggleswade, UK
Surely, by definition, in a democracy the voters get it right every time. Hard to believe but we must or some nanny body (Finklestein will be there) will appoint the 'right' gang.
Dr j Findlater, Carnforth,
I wish Kinnock had won in 1992 - we would have had a one term disaster, instead of the gradual wrecking of a three term Labour Government. We are now back to square one in terms of the economy and the country has been carved up and overrun.
Richard, Worcester, England
The best outcome in 1992 would have been for Kinnock to have won. His government would have been so dire that it would have been kicked out after one term in 1997. We would then have have been spared the whole shambles New Labour has visited upon the country since then.
John, Bangkok, Thailand
Political parties lose elections to the one elected, they do not win them.
B J Deller, Marbella, Spain
Frances@glasgow: Yes, Kinnock was rubbish. Not an original idea in his head.
John, Shipley, W Yorkshire
Edward Heath a gutless nonentity who had so little faith in himself and the British people he gave the e.e.c huge swathes of the British economy without them even asking for it,
Enough said
ANDREW MILLS, stainforth , U.K.
"Do you, on reflection, think it would have been a good idea for the country if Neil Kinnock had been elected Prime Minister in 1992?"
Answer - yes. It didn't require much reflection. And am I really supposed to be impressed that a few uber-Blairites agree with a Tory that Kinnock was rubbish?
Frances, Glasgow,
I voted Conservative at the last 3 elections but did so knowing Labour would win. Had I thought that in 92 I would have left the country.
The elections of 70 and 74 paved the way for Thatcher. For that the country needed an unholy mess. The electorate got it right even if many won't admit it.
Paul Owen, Birmingham, UK
If we are so good at it (democracy, making the right choice etc.) then give us more of it!!!!!!
Electing a Parliament every now and again is insufficient these days particularly now that Local Government is entirely neutered.
More Democracy Please!
Simon Bannister, Brighton, England