In the late summer of 2004 I sat down for dinner with a friend who was running
the Republican Senate campaign in Illinois. He looked disconsolate. Things
were not going well.
The Republicans hadn't had much luck with their candidate. Their first nominee
had been forced to stand down when his wife accused him of taking her to sex
clubs with a view to having sex in public. The man who succeeded him was a
hardline Christian who declared that Jesus would not support a Democrat and
attacked the Vice-President's lesbian daughter for being a “selfish
hedonist”.
Strangely, however, that wasn't why my friend believed they were being routed.
The real reason was that the Democratic candidate was brilliant, flawless, a
rock star, a phenomenon. And that was when I first heard the name of Barack
Obama, now President Elect.
One reading of this election is that it has been an ordinary contest
transformed by an extraordinary candidate. America remains the same, runs
this theory. It is still an innately conservative nation. The reason this
election has been different - and has ended up with the victory of such an
apparently unlikely man - is because of the talents and failings of the
candidates involved.
This is not a theory I accept. This election has turned out as it did because
it needed to. The emergence of Barack Obama only happened, only could have
happened, because America is changing profoundly. This was not a landmark
election because it featured exceptional candidates. It featured exceptional
candidates because it was a landmark election.
Here's how America has changed:
The American people are becoming, literally, a different people.
The most obvious change exposed by this election is in attitudes to race.
Little more than 40 years ago Barack Obama would have found it hard to be
served lunch in a restaurant, let alone be US president.
In 1962 Alabama Democrats chose George Wallace as their candidate for governor
and a few months later he was sworn in, standing on the gold star placed on
the spot where, a century earlier, Jefferson Davis had been sworn in as
President of the Confederate States of America. And Wallace had this to say:
“I draw the line in the dust and toss the gauntlet before the feet of
tyranny, and I say segregation now, segregation tomorrow, segregation for
ever.”
Segregation did not last for ever. It did not even outlast George Wallace. And
in 2008 Alabama Democrats chose Barack Obama for president.
The traditional politics of white America are being tranformed. The country is
changing demographically, rapidly and visibly. US Census Bureau figures
suggest that, by 2042, white Americans will be in a minority.
Karl Rove, George Bush's strategist, has long been convinced that the
Republicans had to co-opt the Hispanic community or the party would suffer
badly in future. That is one reason why, against the instincts of his party,
Mr Bush supported a liberal policy on immigration, one that John McCain
backed too.
America will never be the same again, because Americans won't be the same.
The world is changing and with it America's place in the world.
America remains the greatest single power in the world, yet the rise of China,
the new belligerence of Russia and the wealth of the Gulf set this election
in a very different context to its predecessors.
In this election America was not looking simply for a candidate able to
command its forces as it enjoyed undisputed hegemony. It was more anxious
than that. It was looking for a leader, like Mr Obama, who could command and
might deserve the respect of the world.
The crisis in the financial markets only added to that feeling. For the first
time in a generation the free market ideal and its advocates were on the
back foot.
American politics is being captured by the rising middle class.
For 40 years American politics has been shaped by the split in the Democratic
Party over civil rights. Richard Nixon's Southern Strategy, launched at the
end of the 1960s, was to bring over to the Republicans disaffected voters
from the segregationist states. It was almost completely successful.
Democratic presidents such as Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman and John
Kennedy had united the liberal North with the poor and dispossessed whites
of the deep South. After the Civil Rights Act this link was broken. And
Democrats struggled without this source of southern support.
Yet slowly what one might term a mass chattering class has emerged to make a
northern liberal candidate like Mr Obama viable as they had not been since
Kennedy. A record number of Americans now complete high school or go to
college. There are 7.3 million American millionaires, and more than half the
country now considers itself middle class and is working less and enjoying
more leisure time. Even to be competitive with these voters the Republicans
had to select an unconventional candidate. And still he lost.
We have reached the end of the Southern Strategy and that changes American
politics profoundly.
The conventional Republican agenda has stopped working.
The big themes of Republican politics - cut income tax, fight crime, reform
social security, outlaw abortion, support marriage - no longer cut it
politically. The Democrat tunes play better.
Tax cutting has lost its edge because 29 million Americans pay no income tax
at all and because the Democrats have learnt how to blunt the message.
Success has made crime less of a preoccupation. And the desperate need for
Republicans to win votes among women makes their stance on abortion a
serious problem.
The Republicans were forced to select a maverick because they did not have an
electable mainstream Republican candidate. This was because the mainstream
Republican agenda is no longer a winner.
Welcome to a new American president. Welcome to a new American politics.
daniel.finkelstein@thetimes.co.uk
It seems that almost half of America is lost in outdated simplistic mythologies of various sorts, some religious, some economic, all tied together by a preference for the emotional release that absolute certainty can provide. But these are complex times. Rejoice that cooler heads prevailed.
tsammani, ramsey NJ, USA
HA SEAN you might take a close look at africa where they have done such a great job.that is where the real separtist rule.just last night they had one of those comercails with the poor kids carrying water jugs 4 miles it makes me cry. but according to you you wont more wake up.
pomoc, oceanside, USA
This analysis needs to be reevaluated. The great middle class and high school graduation is a fantasy. The middle class was based on credit and high school is a sham. That's why the US ranks 10th in education.
joao, Sacramento, usa
Even though Obama's protectionist statements could adversly affect Canada, nonetheless, over 80% of Canadians were pro Obama.
A genuine leader, well spoken, and we all hope he can deliver.
Henry Lazar, Vancouver, BC, Canada
The short answer is that Barack Obama won because he's the right man in the right place at the right time. Thank God (and all of us who voted for him) for that. And his extraordinary campaign preparation and execution didn't hurt either. We can expect more of that during his Presidency.
Becky, Salem, OR, USA
It is so wonderful to see the emergence of people of color in the West.
I know Britain will follow in the path of America as will the rest of the West.
Truly this a great thing.
Sean, Chicago, US
A good article. However, its author mischaracterizes the US in the 1960's-he equates all the US with the deep south. His claim "Little more than 40 years ago Barack Obama would have found it hard to be served lunch in a restaurant" is wrong. 40 years ago Obama lived in Hawaii, not Alabama.
Don, San Francisco, California/USA
I dare you to walk around saying, "Yes we can." It will make you feel big and strong. You might even want to make a sacrifice. Finally, a real role model. Thanks Barack!
C. Kane, Greenville,
Keep in mind that with all Obama's advantages he was running slightly behind until the economic crisis. McCain panicked. Obama didn't blink. That's when so many Americans turned toward him. If this election had really been about race Obama would have lost. It's about leadership.
Nelly, Florida, USA
The election of Barack Obama culminates the ascendance of 21st century America, where race does not dominate our political discussions, rather where ideas flourish in the face of our collective future. The choice was between a 20th century politician in McCain and the 21st century ideals of Obama.
Adam Kadro, Michigan, United States
The arguments about socialism are ridiculous. Social security, Medicare Medicaid, SSI, perscription drug plan -- all "socialist", all untouchable. Add to this direct federal subsidies that conservatives demand for business. The people have spoken. Republicans deny this at their peril.
Steve Teleky, New York, USA
The pendulum is swinging back. Most of the responders are ignoring the demographics issue but shouldn't. Black turnout/voter registration made an enormous difference in 2008 as did Bush's presidency, horrifying to Democrats (and the world), and embarrassing to Republicans. Racism lives on, though.
Jeff, Ozawkie, KS, US
Rubbish! America has been dominated by the "Entitlement Generation". People are led to believe they are entitled to something because they want it--greed! Most of the budget comes under what the budget itself refers to as "Entitlements"--social programs Congress labeled unquestionable/unending
Bob Evans, Lowestoft, Suffolk, Back home in Blighty
"The simple truth is that we've lost control of our borders, and no nation can do that and survive.
We ignore America's lost sovereignty at our peril.
Ronald Reagan
Nancy Myers, Lower Burrell , United States of America
Obama ran his campaign on a broken promise of how he was going to accept public financing, only to change his mind when he won the primary. Let's see how many of his other "promises" does he manage to keep. His numbers for imcome level above which he increase taxes went from $250,000 to $150,000!
Dan, Richmond, VA, USA
This election is the realization of the promise of the Founding Fathers of the United States, the promise of equality of opportunity for all. It also is proof of the fundamental premise of the American dream, that with hard-work and great ability the best will come to the top.
God Bless America.
Shalom Freedman, Jerusalem , Israel
As a Republican that has watched his party abandon it's roots in favor of increasingly radical fundamentalism, I had no choice but to clap when Barak won. They other great thing is my relatives in the UK have given me the thumbs-up to take the Canadian flag off my backpack and luggage now!
Christopher Criswell, Lehigh County, PA, USA
Obama won because people in this country have become too busy to see what is going on around them and to take the time to see who this man really is. He told us what he intends to do and apparently, the American people have decided to give socialism a try. God help us all!
Karla, Joliet, , United States
Obama won because as Churchill said, “Eventually America does the right thing, but along the way they will explore all other possibilities.”
J T , Healdsburg CA, US
Thanks the comments made by Mr . Bob Kirenga from my city Hargeisa,Somaliland regarding the Elected President Of USA. Mr. Barack Obama.We also congratulate that victory of Obama. We hope he would change America and the World. We hope also that he would recognise the democratic republic of somaliland
Abdi Ali, Hargeisa., Somaliland
I have never been prouder of my nation than I am today. Your writer states that 40 years ago Mr. Obama would have had trouble being served lunch; that is within Mr. Obama’s (and my) lifetime. Much bitterness will remain with many conservatives (read foxnews.com). They must evolve or go extinct.
Mark H., Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA
Mr.Finkelstein has written an interesting piece. I take issue, however, with the his choice of phrase, "the new belligerence of Russia." "Belliigerence" means: "A hostile or warlike attitude." Why not say, "A changing Russia" - Russia is changing and wants to be listened to. It is time for change!!
Victor, Moscow,
Obama is the "new America". McCain is a very good and decent man but so many americans were tired of the war in iraq and the poor economy. Most importantly this shows the world that even though there is still some racism in the states that its time is nearing the end.
Randy K, Angeles City, Philippines/ USA
Take it easy, Joe - Hillary would have won handily, but she wasn't the right choice. He's no "vehicle." Why is everyone from the Scranton area a nihilist?
Andrew, Lon- the two-party system as SERIOUS faults...
Andrew, Cam- I wish, brother. Sadly, much of the confederacy is still prevalent.
Patrick, Philadelphia, USA
McCain could not wait to get back to Washington D.C. and bail out the banks with a $trillion we didn't have. Strike One.
He gave nothing but lip service to the RIght to Life. Strike two.
He ran a TERRIBLE campaign, old and tired, and had no solutions. Three and out.
Jamo, Twin Lakes, WI, USA
Oh, yes, McCain was the Republican who came after G. W. Disaster Bush.
Jamo, Twin Lakes, WI, USA
Mr. Finkelstein, good food for thought. But the plain fact is that 61% of Mr. Obama's vote was white. The rising Latino vote did help. But let's put the non-white issue to one side. Americans want to be the good guys. And for 8 years, our leaders have made decisions that disheartened us.
Pam Slay, Los Angeles, USA
OK Obama won congrats. With Democrats (and modern Repubs) in power your money is not safe. Please google Dr. Teresa Ghilarducci and Congressional hearings Guaranteed Retirement Accounts and move your 401(k). Take the time to speak to a financial planner about this, all of our futures are at stake.
John, South Bend, USA
Insightful and correct. We in the USA have yet to begin to digest this one, give us a little time. That said, everybody has won.
gary, Syracuse New York, USA
I want to say that I think a lot of nonsense has already been written about Obama's win. He won because of the state of economy and his rhetoric. Period. Finkelstien is wrong to say Republican politics - cut income tax, fight crime, support marriage - no longer matter. They do matter. And always wil
DJ, Surrey, England
Unfortunately the exit polls contradict the verdict proclaimed in this article. 44% of Americans consider themselves centrist, with 34% considered conservatives and the 22% liberals. We are a center right country and will remain so. President elect Obama won because of President Bush.
Quincy, Louisville KY, USA
Obama did not win merely because he was preceded by a deeply-flawed, incompetent and discredited administration. Obama won because his message was purposefully inclusive of all peoples within the United States, and all nations.
Meredith, Vancouver, Canada
What sweep? 56 million Americans voted for the other guy (47%). The great thing is there was no riots or shops burned, or militias in the streets. Even better, people showed up for work and did their jobs. For all the negatives said about America by many countries, they can't that.
Chad, Dallas, USA
To Joe Pinto, Jr.
I'm not so sure that Sen Clinton would have won this race. Against Hillary
- Lieberman is VP (base unites due to Hillary hatred)
- Change message goes Republican (Clinton of the Clinton/Bush dynastic run)
Economy still a challenge, but it looks like a closer election.
Mike Condray, Woodbridge, USA
Another reason might also be the aging of the population. As the baby boomers emerge from their peak earning years, other issues apart from reduced taxes will become more important to them, such as healthcare.
Edward, Wayzata, Minn.
This is awful. I was looking forward to the USA thunbing our noses to the rest of the world.....maybe next time.
Roy Y., Norfolk, USA
I agree with Sam McGowan from Texas. The politics of the Democratic Party and those who were swayed by the suave rhetoric, spell a much bleaker scenario for this country than you publish. Our nation has been sorely deceived.
J Wilson, New Braunfels, United States of America
Wow, what speach making by both McCain and Obama last night. Obama has been steady as a rock and McCain has been rocked by events. The thing speaks for itself. The country has elected its next Lincoln, FDR, Truman type President. Hurray!!!
Gary Hillman, Livingston, NJ, USA
We are still a centrist country, founded on the principles of liberty, individual worth and the pursuit (not the attainment) of happiness. The Republicans lost their way under Bush. Obama benefitted and continued the American dream to the next step, and as John McCain said, its a good thing.
Doug, Eagle, USA
For all the comment about lack of substance from Obama, the parallels between Blair and Obama are striking from their ability to perform. Blair led but couldn't manage and the US seemed to love him. Change the words Blair for Obama and US for world - sound familiar?
JOhn, Knutsford, UK
Sam McGowan from Texas, the world is dancing in the streets and you are writing this pathetic misguided bitter drivel?? I predict that years from now you will not be able to look back on this amazing milestone, not just for the US but for the world, without a sense of sadness and deep shame.
alex, New York,
Chris Rock once quipped that you tell that America had changed when the top golfer was black and the best-known rapper white. What's he going to say now with the president to add to the mix now?
John, Knutsford, UK
The current enthusiasm of the electorate is thrilling. I hope that President Obama, like President Kennedy, harnesses that enthusiasm and has Americans actively participate in the changes he wants to make as they have participated in this election. At 63 and retired, I am ready to volunteer!
Joan, Cockeysville, USA
"The big themes of Republican politics - cut income tax, fight crime, reform social security, outlaw abortion, support marriage - no longer cut it politically." Support marriage? What is wrong with that? You need to look at the referendums on gay marriage before you rule that one to be passe.
William, Washington DC, USA
Obama cast a ray of hope over the pall of gloom & darkness cast over the country these past eight years by the horrific Bush/Cheney agenda and that is why he won. It is an historic moment in US politics and I was proud to vote for him. Hopefully, he will prove to be an excellent president.
Bob Moran, North Bergen, NJ, USA
The Southern Strategy has been broken. As a Southerner, it's been clear to many here that the eastern seaboard South (VA, NC, GA) is more progressive than the interior South. However, that nuance - a lighter shade of red - had been completely overlooked until Obama's wise, unbiased campaign.
Dave H., Atlanta, Georgia, USA
Two after election parties were planned one for 750 invitees at a 4 star hotel. The other at a public park where the only invitation was "C'mon down and join us". Guess which party won? America is people all of the people.
E. McGrath, Greeneville Tn, USA
Rising middle class? Are you insane. The middle class has been destroyed and those that were formerly known as middle class are now lower middle class and poor, have just spoken in this election. The system is still skewed to the rich, no matter who occupies the Oval Office.
Juan, San Diego, USA
We have grown up politically. I used to believe one vote wouldn't make any difference. Many of us who believed that voted this time and made a big difference. I am proud of my country today and will fight to keep it that way in every future election
Melissa Bursch , Bellingham, Wa, United States
This is baloney. Obama won because the US and World economy has gone down the drain and most Americans have yet to figure out that it was because of policies implemented during the Clinton Administration. His support is blue islands in a sea of red.
Sam McGowan, Missouri City, TX, USA
Obama is not a "anti Bush" vehicle.
He is an intelligent, powerful, compassionate, caring man. Who was born for this moment in history. Unfortunately the USA has a small core of bitter, prejudiced people who will hang onto their shallow beliefs as long as they breathe. I feel sorry for them.
Meg Sullivan, Agawam, USA
Perhaps the American people have grown up politically? Fanatacism based on guns, or religion could be a thing of the past and a good thing too.
But a little disconcerting that much of the middle of America would stil vote for a party with Palin on the ticket. She represents the worst of the USA
Andrew, Cambridge,
Truly amazing, cant velieve how many people were crying and organising street parties. Any chance of politics in this country ever getting as passionate?? Can we have two parties who are discernably diffrent fighting for issues we actually care about???
Andrew Samuels, London, England
Every 4 years non-US commentators speak of the revolution in politics - the permanent shift of the electorate to one side or the other. They are always wrong - they fail to account for our 2 party system, that most voters are center independents with short memories and quick judgments.
LAllen, Atlanta, USA
Obama is just the vehicle that the anti-Bush crowd on the left used to regain the White House. Nothing more and nothing less. The Democrat party's nominee was going to win the White House in 2008 whether it was Obama or Hillary Clinton. Bush's low approval ratings is what elected Obama!
Joe Pinto, Jr., Dunmore, PA, USA
With this victory for Obama, for the first time in recent times i actually feel optimistic about the future of our world society. It's still an incredibly messed up place but i feel Obama's thoughtful, intelligent approach can actually get us going in the right direction again.
Alex French, Plymouth, UK
It is inevitable that media politics are viewed by the colour of a person and not what they can bring to the country as a whole. I am sure Barcak Obama will excel because of his knowledge and crisim and his passsion to improve Amercia- view him now of this -please!
Caroline Hayden, Mold, North Wales
People in the USA vote on base of financial self-interest. At least those swing voters in battleground states who decide election. In reality, cost of Iraq war damaged Republican brand lot more then injustice of that intervention. And in the end, global financial meltdown sunk McCain campaign.
Mladen Matosevic, Helsinki, Finland
The emmergence of a black-african President of US should not sound as though this is the end of the world.Change is inevitable and will always be constant..its just the suddeness and quatum in which it descends on each society.Britain and France and the rest of Europe are on the cue so to speak!
Bob Kirenga R., Hargeisa, Somaliland
Obama is an excellent speaker, a masterful politician. He was fortunate that the majority of Americans do not look at a candidates record, instead they listen to the promises. So a man with no record of achievement is now President.
It shall be interesting.
Nona, New York City, USA
White people will only be in a minority in the US if you subscribe to the rather odd American view that white people who speak Spanish as a native language aren't really white.
Mike Scott, London, UK
Note that it is CAPITALIST America that has done this.
R Mason, London, uk
This is of course momentous, but it is what happens in the next four years that counts. If America fails to change this may be the first and last time a non-white is president. The rhetoric for change is appealing but the reality is a terrible unequalled mess which may well be insoluble in one term
David, St Albans, UK
I'm surprised to see no mention of the economy; McCain's campaign took a huge slump when it started to fail. Has any party ever survived a slumping economy?
Sam Olley, Reading, UK
Do you *really* think America has done a complete about-face in four years? No. The only reason Bush won re-election was because Kerry was a lame opponent; if Obama had been ready in 2004, we would have voted him in then. That plus Palin made it impossible for McCain to win.
Jennifer Kerns, Alexandria, Virginia, United States
Thank you, sir. As a voter in Republican-dominated Texas, my vote rarely counted. However, Republicans will see that the demographic of this state, like America in general, is changing.
I'm a Caucasian female with a doctoral degree, and I voted for Barack Obama. I am so proud of my country today.
Lissa, Houston, US
This Will have Profound Effects In The Uk,Obama The President Got On Well With Brown But There Are Many People
Who Hate Brown And Cannot Wait To See The Back Of This Government.
But! Alas One Day In Politics Can Make People Go Blind.
What Price A Black Man In No10 Now?
Thomas, Surbiton, uk
Obama won because John McCain lost. He played the election almost all on Obama's terms by giving him a free pass when it came to the decision to invade Iraq. How many people in America-let alone the world, know that Biden ALSO voted IN FAVOR of the war?? Not many I would suspect
Sean Bos, Chicago, United States