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Sometimes in politics (though rarely in journalism) your sins will find you out. One of the lessons that Tony Blair says he learnt from his time in office was how his choices were affected and constrained by what he had said in opposition. He thinks he spent a lot of time undoing the effect of claiming that it was “standards, not structures” in education, reintroducing a previously abused internal market into the NHS, and now believes that he ended up suffering from Labour's successful pre-'97 taunting of John Major's Government as having been “sleazy”.
Of course, it all seemed like a good idea at the time, as now does the Conservative party's demand backed by this newspaper for a referendum to endorse ratification of what will become known as the Lisbon treaty. It is, is it not, a simple problem for poor old Gordon, trying desperately to justify to the electorate the breach of a promise made back in 2005? And it is, is it not, something of an open goal into which the Conservatives can keep scoring, from now to the next election? An election that, according to some of my more tribally Tory colleagues, is as good as in the bag.
I am not going lean against my mental five-bar gate, remove a straw from my mouth and give readers the wise shake of the head and the “Gordon bain't be as stoopid as he be painted” bit of political folk-wisdom. But I will remind them that there is something important being missed here.
This “something” is not the lack of popular interest in the issue of a referendum. It is the question of what, exactly, the next Conservative government would do about the provisions of the Lisbon treaty.
Dear reader, you know what Mr Cameron and company think about a referendum: they call for one. They demand one. They argue that life cannot go on without one. But what do they think of the Lisbon treaty itself, painfully negotiated by the 27 members of the European Union and recommended by the Prime Minister? Are they against all of it? Some of it? Practically none of it? What specific aspects of it do they reject beyond all compromise? We don't know.
Personally I support the Lisbon Treaty, since its big impact should be to make existing EU policy and practice more effective in the era of enlargement. Recently the Conservative Shadow Foreign Secretary, William Hague, argued that the union should “concentrate on the issues where the EU can really add value: global competitiveness, global warming and global poverty”. Exactly so, which is why, for example, the idea of a single high representative to speak for the EU to the outside world makes sense. This doesn't compromise the foreign policy of sovereign states, but does allow a co-ordination in precisely the areas mentioned by Mr Hague. Unless, of course, he has some kind of perverse interest in wishing the ends but always declining the means. There's a rude word for such tantalisers.
But it may be that the Conservative calculation is simply that their position on the treaty doesn't matter. They will make this an issue of abused trust, and fight the next election on Gordon Brown's nastiness, rather than on the EU itself. Then, the election won, they will cross the next bridge. By then, as Hague admits, the chances are that the Labour and Liberal Democrat majority in the Commons will, after some pain, have ratified Lisbon.
There are, however, two serious problems with these assumptions and both of them are linked to what I want to call the Great Malign Ratchet. It is very hard to campaign in a minor key, and squeal as the Tories may and whatever the polls say the voters are not that bothered by the referendum issue itself. Nor does the “trust deficit” transfer itself so easily from Blair to Brown; it is clear that Gordon has been donated different flaws to overcome. Increasingly, for the issue to have legs, the Tories will have to work with the anti-European lobby to suggest that the treaty itself is the work of Satan. They will have to build on Hague's claim that it will leave “power transferred from Britain to Brussels in spades and the EU fundamentally changed”, and for the worse.
Otherwise, why bother? Problem One is before the election, but after ratification. If the treaty is Luciferian, then what should the angels be offering in their next manifesto? It may require a memory larger than a Daily Mail reader's, but many anti-EU activists know that the Conservative Party in power has delivered precisely no referendums and plenty of big EU treaties, including accession, the single market and Maastricht an approach summed up last month by the Liberal Democrat Vince Cable as “in office, supporting European integration, but in opposition, supporting the worst features of anti-European populism”.
Enter the Tory backbencher Bill Cash, MP, to general dismay and misplaced apathy. A few weeks back Mr Cash tabled an early day motion (essentially a petition) on Lisbon, with a killer last sentence, insisting that “the Prime Minister rejects the Reform Treaty on October 18 and holds a referendum before or after ratification”. “Before or after”. So presumably anyone signing this would want to see a Conservative prime minister taking the same attitude after winning an election and, that being so, would certainly want the reassurance of having such a promise included in the party manifesto. And, accordingly, one quarter of all Conservative MPs did sign the Cash EDM, including John Redwood, Michael Ancram, John Whittingdale and Iain Duncan Smith.
So there's the Great Malign Ratchet for you. The more the Tory leadership slags off the treaty to get one over on Gordon, the greater will be the activist demand that it promises to rescind ratification if it wins the election. But this, of course, it cannot do without risking leaving the EU altogether, which the British people will almost certainly not want.
But even if (and it's a big “if”) the Europhobes do as the Cameroonians may hope, and come over all trusting, bin their EDMs and go quietly until after an election, then there's still Problem Two. Which is that the political impact of rubbishing Lisbon will hold over well into any Conservative government. Governing from out of the soup of its own words, a Cameron administration would then have to decide whether to be true to its Europhobic rhetoric, or whether to make a break and try to achieve something in and through Europe. And if it's the former, David, then the Tories should never, ever be allowed anywhere near power.
David Aaronovitch is a writer, broadcaster and commentator on international politics and the media. He writes for The Times Comment page on Tuesdays. He has previously written for The Guardian, The Observer and The Independent, winning numerous accolades, including Columnist of the Year 2003 and the 2001 Orwell prize for journalism. He has appeared on the satirical TV current affairs programme Have I Got News For You and made radio broadcasts on historical topics
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"But this, of course, it cannot do without risking leaving the EU altogether, which the British people will almost certainly not want."
I have never seen a poll which suggests anything remotely agreeing with this viewpoint.
sword of freedom, nottingham,
It is becoming quite clear that Britain's future is NOT in the EU.
Why? Because of the net 6 billion UK pounds that Britain is now paying yearly into the EU - ie 6 billion more than we receive from the EU annually.
Add to that the 1100 odd directives & regulations that Britain receives from the EU every year which Parliament has no time to review. 50 would be hard enough work - let alone 1100 per year!
Then add to that the fact that the EU's Court of Auditors has been unable to approve the EU's accounts for the last 13 straight years! So in addition to having to pay in 6 billion pounds net per year, some of Britain's hard-earned money has therefore been stolen by fraudulent claims by EU citizens!
So what would any wise UK political party that wants a future do? Starts preparing to genuinely fight the EU if it wants to earn government. Including preparing for Britain's departure from the EU, & our post-EU future!
Agincourt, Phuket, Thailand
I think you're missing something fudamental in your determination to lend support to the government's somewhat dishonest position. Labour promised a referendum on the Constitution and are now trying to renege by playing with words. It's barely relevant at the moment what the Tories did in the past or may hypothetically do in the future and you are exhibiting the same slippery character as the government itself by trying to lay down a smokescreen over what is a blatant exercise in deceit by our rulers. Doesn't duplicity at this level bother you or does the elitist end always justify the dishonest means? It's great that you personally support Lisbon but democracy is supposed to be about asking everyone not just you.
The Guardian specialises in this bankrupt cheer-leading for the corrupt liberal left establishment? Can't we leave it to them and distinguish The Times with the open, intelligent and thought-provoking stuff?
Woz, Edinburgh, Scotland
We voted to join with Europe and we have a vote in the European elections. We did not vote to become the fifty first state or to be treated like second class americans. We are not ruled from Brussles we are ruled from Washington. We go to war when America tells us, not Europe.
Our right wing press and politicians adopt the poodle position in our dealings with the U.S, while while furiously condemning anything to do with the E.U. Real life and death decisions are taken in Washington on our behalf and without our consent.
Joe reilly, Spalding, England
Why the fuss?
The Conservative Party has always told its activists and implied to the electorate that the would resist changes in our status in the EU which was in conflict with their actions in Government and their true beliefs.
The Conservative Party is still wedded to Ever Closer Union and will never resist it however much its leaders may squirm before the tribal but often Eurosceptic membership.
Britain's independent and democratic future will not be achieved from any of the current Westminster Parties.
Andrew Smith, Epping, UK
QUOTE " But this, of course, it cannot do without risking leaving the EU altogether, which the British people will almost certainly not want."
Sorry, haven't you been reading the Polls recently? Leaving the EU with it's corruption and interference in our Laws, and the enforced immigration of people we can't afford to support and can't deport, is precisely what the majority DO want. We are the losers in the EU. We pay through the nose so the Spanish can have new roads, and the Spanish and French trawlermen can plunder our traditional fishing grounds and sell the catch to Russian Factory ships for fertilizer to avoid the fishing quotas.
The Government is prepared to allow much needed farmland to be lost to the sea. I bet Holland gets help to pay for sea defences, so why isn't the EU coughing up the money to protect our coastline? Silly me, we are there to pay out, not get anything back.
Beryl, WINDSOR, England
A referendum would turn into a vote against the EU. As the majority of people get their thoughts from the Tabloids which are mostly anti EU. the voters would vote against as a way of venting their perceived (sometimes correctly) frustrations about the EU in general.
Almost noone can understand the complex wording of the Treaty anyway so how can they vote on it?
A referendum does not come cheap it would cost a lot and by and large be a waste of money.
On ething I never understand about the EU is why the UK has to be different to all the other countries and want so many exclusions
billcarr, turku, finland
There are offering one more than the Labour Party at the moment and that is all that matters.
Sally C , York, Yorks.
EU is just another welfare hose. UK banks are having people line up outside them. Hello. You can't afford welfare dependencies and you have to tell them to go find someone else.
Old Atlantic, Atlantic City, NJ
David,
"the voters are not that bothered by the referendum issue itself".
Perhaps we have different perpectives on what is important to 'the voters'. From where I stand - reading columns and their attendant comments and, yes, even reading The Telegraph - 'the voters' are furious at being denied their say on the current state of the EU.
Whether 'the voters' choose to affirm the Lisbon Treaty or to deny affirmation (and, by extension, voice their lack of enthusiasm for the EU as a whole) is irrelevant. What is relevant is the Labour Party's weaseling out of a promise made in their manifesto and how 'the voters' feel about that.
In this day and age there is simply no justification for the "elect me and I'll do what I damned-well please for the next five years" model of parliamentary democracy. Britain is sick and tired of parliamentary arrogance and must soon move to a much more consultative process.
John Blackley, Austin, TX, USA
The point about a referendum on the constitution/treaty is really very simple and nothing to do with party loyalty: we were told categorically that we would havea vote on it and now apparently we won't. So, it's about misleading the electorate, about treating them with contempt - again.
anne, bournemouth,
Yes we do know what the Tories, and most of the public does not like, transferring more and more power to an unelected bureaucracy, simple Dave ! The fact that this has been done before, that Tories denied referenda before, etc etc is not relevant, they were mistaken and now admit it. OK?
Good for Hague suggesting that Parliament's ratification of the new treaty (no argument now, we note that this is the old constitution redressed) will be tainted. This is because Labour MPs are sitting there in the Commons on the basis of a promise they are now breaking. There, that's not so hard to understand, especially when the eu-fundamentalist spectacles are removed?
Tim, Abingdon, UK
The Tories are all over the place on European Policy.Unfortunately Cameron shows no leadership on this issue and hides away.Cameron should get some "Bottle" and define some policies on Europe instead of trying to cofuse the public by spin.
Bill Rees, Truro, Cornwall
The only future for the UK is the EU. Populist sentiment, bathing in the mythology of past glories, is unable to comprehend that so for any opposition party (not needing to make decisions) opposition to all things EU is an easy vote-getter. Although, I think the electorate are more concerned with the NHS than the EU. Once in government logic takes over and we move further down the EU path.
The key to a decent, successful society is not the balliot box, open to corruption from the dubious marketing techniques employed in politics, but pluralism. Those who know something on the subject, with the intellect to comprehend that knowledge and the motivation to pursue the logic of it are the key to such a society.
It is obvious that every government since the Heath government, including the Tory's pin up - Margaret Thatcher, has moved towards ever closer union. As the lady might have said herself - There Is No Alternative.
Eddie Reader, birmingham, england
"The more the Tory leadership slags off the treaty... the greater will be the activist demand that it promises to rescind ratification if it wins the election. But this, of course, it cannot do without risking leaving the EU altogether"
Oh dear, oh dear, the usual Euro fanatic stock response - accept what we say or leave the EU. What utter rubbish. 1) France and Holland weren't forced to leave the EU after they rejected the original treaty - so why would we be? 2) We have a very strong hand in our relations with the EU - we run a massive trade deficit with the EU and they are not about to kick us out and risk losing favourable access to our economy (which have been the only EU one expanding for the last 5 years or so) and if the EU wants a military capability only the UK armed forces can provide it.
And what a stunning advert for EU democracy - if we choose a government that will rescind the treaty, it can't or we have to leave the EU. Makes you proud to be in the EU, does it?
logicalcaptain, Ivybridge,
I suspect Mr. Aaronovitch may well prove to be correct - the Tories have been shown to be just as duplicitous and untrustworthy as NuLabour. All they all appear to care about is power and the lies they need to tell to achieve it are considered on the whole inconsequential.
But anyone 'supporting the Lisbon treaty' (likeMr. A) is clearly totally sold on the whole EU project. To endorse it because it makes the EU more "effective" is begging the question: who in Britain WANTS the particular effects it produces? Poll after poll has demonstrated an indisputable British antipathy to these "effects".
The bottom line is a political elite supported by a small minority of voters continue to ride roughshod over the democratic will of most of the people. AGAIN! This is democracy in Britain today.
alex, washington, usa
Tory splits, Gordon is a genius Yada yada yada.etc. The problem with you David and polly and tim and the rest of the bunch is that it is such an anathema to even think about not being full members of the EU that for some strange reason you think other people are remotely concerned. Brown will sell Britain down the river with the help of the Lib Dems. If Cameron then wins the election he should go to Brussels and demand that he gets all of a hitlist of desires e.g. fisheries policyreform , CAP reform, rebate, end of ratchet clause, reinstatement of vetos etc. Inevitably Brussels will decline then a referrendum needs to be held on whether Britain becomes an associate member (I am sure there will be lots of wailing from your direction, David). We will see at that time what is important to the British people (scare stories about jobs - which have largely gone to migrants anyway - or the flexibility to make our own way in the 21st century.)
steph, brighton,