David Aaronovitch
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By late tonight (Iranian gunboats permitting) Barack Obama could be the surf-away leader for the Democratic presidential nomination - carried there not so much on a wave, as in a gush. How odd it is that we in the West seem to have only two ways of thinking about politics - either supreme cynicism or supreme credulousness.
Mr Obama, wrote the usually super-sour Maureen Dowd in The New York Times, offers Americans “a cool, smart, elegant, reasonable, literary, witty, decent West Wing sort of president”, and the struggle between him and Hillary Clinton is a battle between Love and Hate with Mrs C representing the other thing.
Andrew Sullivan, a well-known US-based liberal-right blogger, opined post-Iowa that “sometimes, elections really do come down to a simple choice: change or more of the same?”. In his view Mr Obama “has what Reagan had in 1980 and Clinton had in 1992: the wind at his back”. “A man who pardons the original sin of the slave and who holds up a mirror to America in which she is beautiful, multiracial and pragmatic,” commented a French newspaper.
Other writers projected into the Iowa caucus victory nothing less than an end to the “culture wars” and now tedious conflict between the opposing strands of the baby-boomer generation: the Haight-Ashbury hippies and the Rush Limbaugh rednecks. One usually sober Britisher seemed to suggest that the responsibility for the hatreds that have divided Americans socially rested almost entirely with two families: the Bushes and the Clintons. Now, with the help of galvanised youth, Mr Obama could transcend all this.
The parade is under the window and the urge is strong. Let's just remind ourselves that the youth didn't get Howard Dean there in 2004, won't vote in anything like the numbers their parents will, and the population is ageing. And let's put in a word for Hillary here, who - it seems to me - herself transcended all this '60s polarisation some time ago. Not that it matters, because it has become obvious in the past few days that its not just the Right that hates Mrs Clinton. These days even her good answers when debating are criticised - no, mocked - for their supposed stridency.
When it comes to choosing people to rule over us, I have long suspected misogyny was even stronger than racism. Iowa has never elected a woman in a congressional or gubernatorial election. So sure, you can have the safe, smily, “witty”, mixed-race guy, but let's not go for the scary woman. Who wants to be pussy-whipped by a Glenn Close or Meryl Streep career bitch every time there's a State of the Union address? Shouldn't they really (oh, whisper it) be at home with the kids?
Then there is what might be thought of as the Blair-Brown dichotomy. As the early Tony Blair was (and David Cameron, to a lesser extent is), Mr Obama can be loaded with just about any expectation or hope. He's a changer, he's a healer, he's a radical, he's a moderate, he suspends the normal rules of politics. In this sense his great advantage is that no one knows what he is, and we are all therefore free to create our own Obama. Mrs Clinton's disadvantage turns out to be definition, because we all understand exactly what she is. In America, as here, we demand authenticity but we rarely reward it at election time, much preferring ambiguity.
So Mr Obama is described (like Reagan) as making Americans feel good about themselves, as though the US was electing a therapist, not a president. It's an appropriate guide, maybe, for choosing a constitutional monarch or a symbolic president, in which the glad-handing, ambassadorial role is the most important. Presidents, however, inherit a world full of Musharrafs, Ahmadinejads, climate changes, economic slowdowns, unemployment, housing slumps and other problems unsusceptible to therapeutic generational transcendence.
Unsusceptible, too, to waving the word “change” over it all. “I will end the war in Iraq,” Mr Obama states in his platform. “I will finish the fight against al-Qaeda. And I will lead the world to combat the common threats of the 21st century: nuclear weapons and terrorism; climate change and poverty; genocide and disease.”
How will he end the war in Iraq? What does he even mean by the phrase? Of course, he means he'll end it only for the Americans by “beginning immediately to remove our troops”. He will accomplish this by withdrawing “one to two combat brigades each month, and have all of our combat brigades out of Iraq within 16 months.” But, in sunny expectation of the Iraq he will unilaterally leave behind, “he will keep some troops in Iraq to protect our embassy and diplomats; if al-Qaeda attempts to build a base within Iraq, he will keep troops in Iraq or elsewhere in the region to carry out targeted strikes on al-Qaeda”.
Where, you might ask, are the Iraqis in all this? And if this dogmatic determination not to recognise the successes of the recent troop surge is insufficient ground to suspect Mr Obama of overoptimism, then try: “Obama will secure all loose nuclear materials in the world within four years.”
Let,s not hold recent stupidities uttered by Mr Obama's principal foreign affairs spokesman on the issue of Pakistan against Barack himself. As president I am sure he'd fire the man. And if his domestic platform seems to consist of no tax rises (except, of course, for the very wealthy), an endless series of spending commitments, all finished off with the promise to obey “pay-as-you-go budgeting rules”, then at least we can hope that all this will be ironed out during the campaign.
But though Mr Obama has made one rather pathetic concession to economic nationalism - his sponsorship of the 2007 Patriot Employer Act, which gives tax credit to companies that increase their employment in the US relative to foreign countries - he has been refreshingly free of the populism that has disfigured this election. Unlike John Edwards on the Left and Mike Huckabee on the Right, Mr Obama has generally eschewed protectionism, has rejected anti-immigration policies, and - Iraq notwithstanding - is no isolationist.
Imperfect as she is, Hillary Clinton is also on the side of the global angels, and is super-competent and super-serious about the presidency. If she were loved, if she were a man, there would be no question about who should be nominated. But if she can't get over the vagina thing, and it were Mr Obama in November, then I would happily take him against any Republican, except, maybe, John McCain. Just don't expect me to gush.

David Aaronovitch is a writer, broadcaster and commentator on international politics and the media. He writes for The Times Comment page on Tuesdays. He has previously written for The Guardian, The Observer and The Independent, winning numerous accolades, including Columnist of the Year 2003 and the 2001 Orwell prize for journalism. He has appeared on the satirical TV current affairs programme Have I Got News For You and made radio broadcasts on historical topics
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RE: Quote "...and I'll tell you what, if that's true, then for the first time in my life I'm thinking that women are genetically predisposed to make a stupid, selfish decision when faced with the most important of choices, and should never be elected president.
Jack, Walnut Creek, CA, USA"
There speaks a true misogynost if I ever hear one. Good on you Jack!
eleanor nelson, Qualicum Beach, british columbia CANADA
I laughed out loud reading this article. It seems that only a Brit can be so incredibly pompous and condescending about something that he knows absolutely nothing about.
As a lifelong Democrat, I drew the ire of many of my coworkers when I said that Hillary could end up as the first woman president after the '92 election. But then I got to know her over the years, and there is absolutely no chance whatsoever that I would ever vote for her.
The only sexism that's going on here is on the part of the 40+ (mostly 50+ actually) women that are still beating the "glass ceiling" drum.
Listen, a very good case can be made that Boomer women voted for Clinton out of sympathy and "personal identification" after her crying episode.
And I'll tell you what, if that's true, then for the first time in my life I'm thinking that women are genetically predisposed to make a stupid, selfish decision when faced with the most important of choices, and should never be elected president.
Jack, Walnut Creek, CA, USA
Well - as was once said in a rather different context - it looks like it is too early to say. One thing is clear - there doesn't seem to be a journo or commentator out there who has called it correctly yet. Long live democracy and power to us "ordinary people"!
Tim, Kinsgton,
This is a post-"Hillary victory" post:
So much for the "misogyny of the American voter" eh Mr. Aaronovitch? I won't be as hard on you as you deserve, because you were only one of many people and pundits who underestimated the "American voter," the Clinton family, and how much "change" itself can sometimes change.
I also let you off the hook, because I too was almost hooked. I too thought most people, in this age of "image is everything," would gravitate to the "smiling mixed race guy," forgetting or ignoring or never asking what substantively that person stands for. But I have to hand it to my fellow Americans, (which I rarely do): they're a decent bunch, I guess. And, despite two recent Bush victories, they're not so empty-headed after all. Don't (mis)underestimate them (sic). Don't call them misogynistic when they fail to vote for the woman, nor call them racist when they fail to vote for the black guy. Most people, I think, vote with little regard to these petty labels.
lee s, london / las vegas, uk / usa
Great post! There is a dual standard operating, as Gloria Steinem illustrates well at http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/08/opinion/08steinem.html. And the press is partly to blame, with the reporting of Hillary Clinton just so different from that of the men -- scattered with a corrosive shower of snide adjectives showing her as falling short of the standard of ideal womanhood, giving both men and women a justification for not voting for her.
None of the male candidates are "ideal". That isn't taken to mean they are unelectable -- it is accepted that that you have to take a mixture of the good and the bad -- but mussy hair is apparently enough to show that Hillary is not made of the right stuff. Not all reporting is at that level, but it is difficult to find a reliable discussion of Hillary's policies which is not rendered dubious by inclusion of details that are irrelevant to a political judgement.
FH, Norwich,
Your argument that it is mysogony triumphing and deciding the democratic nomination is a huge acccussation to level at a nation. You put forward next to no evidence to support this sweeping conclusion of yours! personally if Barack wins i'd put it down to him being the better candidate with Hiliary being a flawed candidate on way too many levels. When making huge accussations in the future please put foward some evidence.
Douglas, London, UK
This puffery gives the benefit of every doubt to Clinton (C) and Obama (O) who have no executive experience and little foreign policy experience. In a time of international crisis it is reasonable to ask how they have come to be their party's leading candidates. The answer has much to do with gender and race. C rode her husband's coattails into the senate and is attempting to ride them into the White House. Her qualifications: wife of Bill, feminist, first lady, are all gender roles. Only as a senator can she claim individual merit, and even then her committee assignments and national stature derive from Bill. O was elevated to the national stage by a Democrat party searching for black politicians to stand in contrast to the Republican Powell and Rice. He is a lightweight with very few accomplishments. You charge America with mysogeny and racism - you are wrong. America is closer to being post-racist and post-feminist than any other country. H and O are proof of this.
John, Washington, DC
This is curious view, why does David beleive the iraqis are incapable of administering their own country? Obama's view on Iraq is common sense, or does David seriously beleive the US president, whoever they are, are going to mold their foreign policy to suit the "government" of Iraq?
As for his digs at the presidents of Pakistan and Iran how odd he didn't mention the president of China whose country is building its first bluewater fleet and is therefore much more likely to be a greater challenge to US dominance then Iran.
Simon O'Brien, London, UK
What about baggage? As a female, I am still not intending to vote for Hillary because she has always seemed too political. As wife of the Governor in Arkansas and then as President, she never batted an eyelid when Bill was tashing around - because of her political ambition. She is trumpeting her "experience" now, when what she's really talking about is her husband's experience. She is a two term Senator. Obama comes across as much more genuine, which goes a long way after 8 years of the Bush/Cheney tyranny. It's not misogyny - people are just looking beneath the surface!
Toni Summers Hargis, expat, Chicago, USA
All of you are overlooking the most important part -- BUSH WILL BE GONE!!!
Female Democrat, Miami, Florida
Mr. Aaronovitch, as was evident in your recent film on Blair, although under cover of that pseduo fig leaf, 'objectiivity' there was no denying where your real sympathy lay - at the feet of 'power'. And here, once again, is the sickening casuistical turn, ââ¦thinks, I know, I will use misogyny as the heart of the piece. Put the accusatory cat amongst the susceptible pigeons. Yeah.â
I used to like reading your stuff but to see you recently dipping your knee around (Blair) I think you are just another liberal humanist journoâ to quote Austen, âliving in darkness yet believing yourself to be living in light.â Little wonder such types are despised for their arrogant certainty. If you get to interview the spooky fundamentalist (Blair) again, how about asking 'if he expects to be indicted as a war criminal?'
diffident, Rochester,
How many crypto-Republicans vote for Barack Obama now in order to get rid of Hillary Clinton, and then, in the end, will support a Republican candidate? That way, a Republican can win in the end -- the only way.
Reidulf Molvaer, Oslo, Norway, Oslo, Norway
B.R in hartford proves there are still intelligent and insightful voters in the US.
john, corby, england
Many women are mysogenists. They are often unsupportive don't like to see other women succeed. In my experience, women judge each other far harder than men do. More often then not, there is a lot of jealousy, gossip and bakstabbing. Whenever there is a management position open in a female-dominated field of work like teaching or nursing, the job often goes to a man.
Not because he is that good or better then the female appicants, but somehow most women prefer a male boss to female one. When is comes to voting, many woman will act in a similar way.
Patsy, Groningen, Netherlands
What a language for media:-white woman-v-black man, you mean, European-American woman and African-American man
I only wish our good media was little cleaner .
Perhaps our lord Jesus Christ was man of all Colours !
Whether its a brown-skin American man get elected UAS
President or european woman, it's the American voters chice,
prhaps good media may learn one day to except woman and
brown skin all people treated as human, i am praying God bless us all :Cllr Ken Tiwari(Oxford UK)
Cllr Ken Tiwari (Independent), Oxford, United Kingdom
Generally, If we're a happy country, we elect Republicans who preach to our national needs. If we are an UNhappy country, we elect Democrats who promise change. Then we get 10% of the change promised, get disgusted with the changes that were made on our behalf, and then re-elect Republicans who promise to "get our nation back on track". People of Britain: Learn Our System and criticize appropriately :)
Having said that, Obama lacks experience put paints a good picture......Hillary paints a lousy picture and while versed in the political system suffers from the Clinton dynasty baggage, along with the fact that she has an air of arrogance about her that seems to indicate she is "entitled" to the position due to pedegree.
Sadly, there are just as many ignorant voters in this nation as there are edumakated ones, so the world is in for another electoral crapshoot. Oh well, gotta be better than Bush, right?
B.R., Hartford, CT, USA
Before hurling charges of misogyny at the American electorate, Aaronovitch should have had the sense to self-edit the offensive question that begins with "Who wants to be..." and ends with "every time there's a State of the Union address?"
Bruce, Kentucky, USA
ah, right. so obama and hillary will fail due to racism and misogyny? and it will have nothing to do with one being a bag of empty rhetoric and the other being a weasel?
wouldn't you say it was rather racist and sexist to overlook the unsuitability of either to be president?
jem, london, uk
Interesting that the Democratic margin of victory is the female vote. If women didn't vote then the Dems would not win another election.
JLP, Cambridge,
American elections are always the same - the richest white man wins.
J. Wilkes, Gloucester,
Mr. Aaronovitch - Do you really think it is sensible to compare Ahmadinejad to Musharraf; one is possibly the greatest enemy of Western culture whilst the other is wholly embracing Western culture and is probably the Western world's greatest ally on the war on terror?
Hassan Azam, Banbury , Oxfordshire, England
So a black president will expiate America's slave guilt and bring an end to the shakedown racket, will it?
Just as the election of Mrs Thatcher in 79 put an end to the complaints that middle class women did not have an equal chance in politics or anywhere else.
B Wood, London,
Speaking as a white female londoner - i would welcome a black PM over a white woman anyday - I still have nightmares about the last woman PM we had!
kim, London,
Can women be mysognists ? Seems they are flocking to Obama according to reports. What a ridiculous article, many men who wouldn't vote for Hilary because of what she stands for would vote for Condi (for example) in a heartbeat. Sexism has nothing to do with it. Didn't stop Maggie over here.. now there was a leader.
Mark , London,
So a white state votes for a black guy and this is evidence of prejudice.
Did I miss something about John Edwards? Is he a lesbian or something?.
Mike, London,
All fair points - but come on, loosen up a bit. After years in which Osama Bin Laden and Saddam Hussein have been public enemies number one and two, it seems the US might elect a guy called Barack Hussein Obama. That alone has to be enough to make you gush.
Edward Benson, London, UK
Barack Obama will win today's primary vote in New Hampshire! He has the prerequisite intelligence to govern despite his lack of experience. Mrs. Clinton's assertion that she knows the process is to brand herself a cardboard cut-out of her husband. Itâs Penelope weaving her shawl by day and unravelling it by night. Ambition and vision are great attributes for any politician but the appearance of arrogance in Mrs. C's claim that she would immediately hit the ground running. The idea of a ruling dynasty might have worked with the Kennedys because that had intelligence, charm and knowledge of and interest in the world. While Bill Clinton had these in immeasurable quantity, Hillary does not portray them. Barack Obama promises not just change but he is a different sort of black presidential candidate: he symbolises everything that the provincialistic Jesse Jackson lacked: magnanimity, grace, and integrity.
E N BISAMUNYU, London, UK
Although I studied American politics at a British university I'm being educated daily by the Times bloggers. If either Hillary or Obama goes up against a credible Republican s/he will be massacred. Misognyn and racism will both come into play. Americans behave very differently in the primaries and caucuses than they do in the final vote in November. By that time the vested interests have arranged their platforms and the final campaign becomes a bloody joust. We still don't know who the Republican candidate will be but you can bet it will be somebody to beat either Obama or Hillary. If Obama it could well become the "What's your middle name?" campaign. Commentators have also forgotten the role Edwards could play in the final act. He looks to be heading for the second spot on the final Democratic ballot but which partner would he make more electable? Probably Hillary. North and South. Centre and left. Experience and youth. Fascinating stuff. Keep blogging American cousins!
Dr David Green, Athens, Greece
It has nothing to do with what's between their legs. Obama has a vision. He can talk for 2 hours on the topics of why he wants to be president and what he would do in that capacity. And he'll do it from deep within his gut, with feeling and conviction. On the other hand, Hillary has yet to define her presidency or why she is even seeking the job other than to suggest that it is her turn and it is owed to her. That is the crucial difference. And this is coming from someone who has adored Hillary from a distance. The campaign trail, however, tends to place candidates under a microscope and Hillary has not faired well upon scrutiny.
Bruce Angerson, Los Angeles, CA
A very well written essay. People here elect a buddy you can have beer with(GW Bush) or a humorous father figure(Reagan). I think Bill Clinton was elected less for his depth and brilliance and more for his gregariousness. Experience is not important. Feel-good is everything. Following this logic, it will be worth making comedians the CEOs of US corporations.The fact is that since 1999, the household income has gone down every year. So much for hope and optimism !
Obama might be a good President but I doubt if he is electable in November.
Steve, Joplin, USA
I'm a woman and I won't be voting for Hillary Clinton. It has nothing to do with the fact that Hillary is a woman, it has to do with the fact that she is not the right woman to lead the country. She is fake (crying about "falling backward") and manipulative (clearly planting the men shoutingt "Iron My Shirt!", in a desperate attempt to inject sexism into a campaign which until now, has given her no authentic reason to do so) . It's time to do away with the Clinton and Bush dynasties and rebuild.
E. Davis, Out West, U.S.A.
You're so right.
Misogyny will triumph over racism, and then Obama will lose to any old corrupt hack running for the Republicans, so the uppity blacks will get theirs as well as the uppity women.
It's the American version of democracy.
Dale, Wellington,
You bring up a very good point. It really does seem as though Obama is running for head of state, while Hillary is running for head of government. Why not split the position like most other countries?
Dave P, Hackettstown, NJ, USA
Hmmm. In what way is Mrs Clinton proven to be super-confident ? In what way are her certainties proven to be convincing ? One of the lessons of the malleable approach of the likes of Tony Blair is that it addresses the fact that the virtue of democracy is the ability to throw the rascals out. The notion that a range of policies comprehensive enough to govern a country can be distilled into a single vote is ludicrous.
So it is reasonable for people to look at Mrs Clinton and to question whether she shows sufficient humility in her "known knowns" to be trusted with the sorts of nasty balls reality will throw at her. To do otherwise is to invite a victorious Mrs Clinton to make the classic politician's error of assuming she has some sort of "mandate" for her policies - which will then founder on the rocks of Congress and reality.
That Mr Obama can make daft statements is, of course, a worry. That doesn't mean that misogyny is the only reason for Hillary to give people the creeps.
P Orphyry, Skipton,
This is a crude and classless characterization of Democratic voters in this country. The fact is the country has Bush and Clinton fatigue and is looking at all of our options. Clinton will still likely be the Democratic nominee as long as she runs a competent campaign. I fail to see the point of this article other than to spew venom on voters who have not even made up their mind yet.
I'm a Republican by the way so I am merely offended on the behalf of Democrats.
Marianne, Cincinnati, US