David Aaronovitch
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Maybe this time,” sang Lord Malloch-Brown on the Today programme yesterday. “Something's bound to begin. It's got to happen, happen sometime. Maybe this time I'll win.”
Well, all right, I am - like postmodernist scholars - decoding the metatext. What the Minister of State for Africa, Asia and the UN actually said was that the mood around the world had so turned against Robert Mugabe and his various cronies that their combined diplomatic effort would bring him down.
Till now, Lord Malloch-Brown allowed, there had only been a “fairly limited set of measures” taken against the Zimbabwean President. This was changing. The Australians were kicking out the kids of Zanu (PF) officials being educated in Oz. The EU would be freezing bank accounts. The African Union and the Southern African Development Community would not be recognising Mr Mugabe's imminent second-round election theft thus delegitimising him, and the UN would “force in” election observers to monitor that second-round (from which Morgan Tsvangirai had already withdrawn) or - in a manner unspecified - “force some change of government”. These were “powerful steps - as long as you accept that there are pressures short of military action”.
Perhaps, I thought, his lordship simply knows something we don't about back-channels and internal divisions in Mugabe's apparat. Because, unless you regard the recent burnings, rapes, beatings, murders, threats, arrests, starvings and raids as some kind of exotic preamble to negotiation, then what seems clear is that the Zanu (PF) military-security group has no intention of allowing any transfer of power to an elected opposition, no matter what a whingeing world says about it.
Or am I missing a clue, cleverly hidden in the present repression? If so, it seems that Morgan Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic Change missed it too when he took refuge in the Dutch Embassy in Harare on Sunday night. Recalling Bosnia, one can only hope that the Dutch keep their embassies safer than they did their UN safe havens.
This obduracy on the part of the Zimbabwean junta is not so incomprehensible. The regime represents that astonishing phenomenon, the ideo-kleptocracy, which believes that its enrichment and corruption is a historically necessary reversal of colonialism. “The people of Zimbabwe,” one senior Zanu (PF) minister said yesterday, “have declared war against any force that would recolonise Zimbabwe”; and that would take away his money, power, foreign assets, yachts and mistresses and - at best - slap him in chokey for the rest of his days.
What might embolden him is the record. He might reflect that, over nearly 30 years, he and his comrades have repeated the same essential pattern of behaviour, each time taking Zimbabwe's people on another downwards journey, and have got away with it over and over and over again. For most of my adult life we have witnessed the incremental and inevitable destruction of a nation, almost in slow motion. After initially ignoring the repression and violence, we have for two decades applied the same strategies of pressure, minor sanction, condemnation, talks, aid and buck-passing, only to enjoy the same flickering hopes, to bemoan their subsequent betrayal and to start anew.
Right from the beginning it was all there, in Mugabe's 1980 revelation that he believed in a one-party state. It was evident in his 1982-83 suppression of the Ndebele-based opposition of Joshua Nkomo using the notorious 5th Brigade trained by North Koreans; in the 20,000 resulting deaths and the use of starvation as a political weapon; in the intimidation of the opposition by Zanu (PF) “youth brigades” during the 1985 elections; in the 1987 absorption of Nkomo's Zapu and Mugabe's extolling of “one single, monolithic and gigantic political party”. But we didn't take too much notice, because there were no whites involved.
And then the farm grab started, ostensibly redistributing white land to the poor, and in fact giving it to the ideo-kleptocrats, in whose hands it became barren. It was all there, this time for the whites: the roving groups of thugs, the murders and the round-ups. The same with the stolen election of 2000. The same with the stolen election of 2002. The same with the stolen election of 2004. Each time there were hopes that maybe the ageing Mugabe would mellow, or that his party would bring down the curtain and begin to compromise and each time it all got worse. We chucked him out of the Commonwealth, he macheted a few more opponents, we refused to shake his hand, he killed another opposition election worker.
We believed - understandably - in the crucial role of South Africa. South Africa, led by Thabo Mbeki, in turn believed in quiet diplomacy, in secret talks, in dignified exits that might be delayed by incautious condemnations, in governments of national unity between the raped Opposition and their rapers. Several times President Mbeki, who dislikes Mugabe intensely, would manage to get the Zimbabwean leader into talks about this or that aspect of an imaginary future - land settlement, development, whatever - only to have Mugabe renege the instant the two men were back in their own capitals.
And what do we imagine now? That Zambia's crossness, Angola's criticism (only a few weeks after that country passed on Chinese weapons to the armed forces of Zimbabwe) and Botswana's rather valiant anger will persuade the Harare murderers that the game is up, especially now we are investigating freezing their European assets? Again, one asks, do the diplomats know something we don't, and that the historical record fails to suggest? Is there some Zimbabwean Admiral Dönitz or Juan Carlos, waiting to arrange the transition? Why aren't we just as likely to get Mugabe's Heydrich, Emerson Mnangagwa, the Joint Operations Command strongman?
“Military intervention,” said one BBC person yesterday, expressing the views of the consensus, “is not a realistic option.” It might be better if it was. How many South African or British soldiers would it take to unseat the junta and disperse the Zanu (PF) “veterans”, who are now veterans only of whipping and gouging defenceless people, or raping women without the slightest chance of resistance?
Instead, the suffering people of Zimbabwe (life expectancy, 37) get what the Foreign Secretary called yesterday “the worst rigged election in African history”.
David Aaronovitch is a writer, broadcaster and commentator on international politics and the media. He writes for The Times Comment page on Tuesdays. He has previously written for The Guardian, The Observer and The Independent, winning numerous accolades, including Columnist of the Year 2003 and the 2001 Orwell prize for journalism. He has appeared on the satirical TV current affairs programme Have I Got News For You and made radio broadcasts on historical topics
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Africa is a basket case so let us watch and learn from it. If Mugabe goes another one will take over and the roundabout starts again.
Has nobody been watching for the last 30 years?
M Wilson, Bidache, france
Shelley from Glasgow - I have travelled quite a bit through Africa and I am afraid that tribalism has a lot to do with it. The biggest trive always gets their man into the top job - either through votes or tribal/civial war. Congo, Kenya, Rawanda and many other African states are ruled this way.
William J. Gibbons, Calgary, Canada
I just read where Mugabe's knighthood has been revoked.
That's showing him!
Though, in truth, no one else is going to do anything that will have any more effect on him and reign than revoking his knighthood.
Terry Walker, Ladson, SC / USA
Sanctions against Mugabe will only cripple the counrty and the people while Mugabe is left unscathed. What needs to be done is obvious to a nation yet our Prime Minister remains oblivious to it. Zimbabwe needs our help not hindering. Send forces in to help
Danielle Hay, Cobham, Kent
Terry W Africa cannot be painted with one brush. It has nothing to do with tribalism but corruption and murder. The West says it will help any nation which wants to be democratic. We have a nation CRYING for democracy, a little support will go a long way [not military support].
Shelley, Glasgow,
Even if the SA government did decide to send in the SA Army it could be a fiasco. It is overstaffed with inept politcal appointees and riddled with AIDS. It is nothing like the fearsomely efficient machine PW Botha could employ 20 years ago.
David, Marietta, USA
Robust intervention!
No resources - No will.
No consensus could be reached at the UN - China and Russia would block it - shock
No neighbouring African country would allow passage.
The "Stop the War" coalition would bleat about it.
Stiff words and strong language only.
Dave St Peters, london,
If only there was oil in Zimbabwe.
jon, London,
Desmond Tutu has been lionized by one and all. If he is such a powerful moral force who carries the world's admiration, whey doesn't he go over to Zimbabwe and get all this stopped and sort it out?
Where is Desmond when you need him?
Terry L. Walker, Ladson, SC / USA
George, London -- The US is condemned by many for Iraq. It is not going into Zimbabwe.
Post-colonial subSaharan Africa's history is kleptocracy, mismanagement, and tribalism. It is a mess that others can't sort out. Leave the Africans to their own devices. It is what they say they want.
Terry L. Walker, Ladson, SC / USA
Surely in this day and age we can freeze bank accounts.
David, Carlisle, UK
Keep out of Africa until we have a formal admission from all African statesmen that they have done a worse job than the "imperialist agressors" in all except one country. Africa must sort itself out, we are now too poor to afford to be involved with such a huge black hole.
David Cage, Highworth, UK
Negociated settlement -not happening see the comments of Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade on that who had tried :
"I can say that this objective has been almost completely snuffed out since I have learned that soldiers went after Morgan Tsvangirai at his residence on Sunday,"
Jason Pearson, Toronto, Canada
Arm the MDC.At least it would then be a fair fight.
Andy, Bristol, UK
"Only one nation can stop this, and don't they just love telling us"
South Africa has the gift to turn out the lights on the Mugabe regime any time they like, not the US. The fact that they don't is both mysterious and bodes ill for their own future, should one day a MDC seek to replace the ANC.
James Lynch, London, UK
Mugabe needs to be removed from power with extreme prejudice
Bruce Northwood, Silver Spring, USA
Jesse seems to have forgotten that, for good or ill, British armed forces took part in the military intervention in Iraq alongside US forces - twice!
Andrew, Bristol, England
Of the various possible outcomes I imagine that Zimbabwe as a Chinese farm is a lot better that a prolonged period of palliative intervention by the West which would not deal with the fundamental corruption and incompetence. It is an African problem: leave it to Africa.
Geoff, Sydney / London,
Option A -SA &Neighbours surround Zim with troops/tanks.
Cut off everything and issue 24 hour warning to leave or else. Send Mugabe a helicopter giving him an escape. Make it clear he is going one way or another ( Tanks kind of send that message)
Option B keep doing the same thing and hope
Jason Pearson, Toronto, Canada
"I thought the Brits didn't like militaristic intervention??? ..... Violence can be used for good,especially when it removes nasty dictators who have no place on earth.."
And replaces them with......er....nothing.
Iain, London, UK
Mr Aaronovitch, Srebrenica fell mostly because the US and France neglected to lend (air)support which was guaranteed upon the deployment of Dutch troops who were never meant to guard the section on their own. Please don't speak lightly of the events, we most certainly don't. It's a national trauma.
Erik, the Hague, Netherlands
David,
Make sure that the U.N. approves the intervention. Otherwise, those in charge of the invasion will clearly be war criminals.
arnoldo, Coventry,
On the one hand I applaud the efforts of the opposition to realise change through the ballot box. On the other hand when does passavism become procrastination or even cowardice? How much violence will be tolerated before the people stand up for themselves? And if they won't why should we?
Noah, knutsford, UK
Do we really think that if we leave it alone for long enough the African leaders will step in?
Only one nation can stop this, and don't they just love telling us. But it's true. But, in an election year, will the world's only superpower practice what they preach? Freedom for everyone, everywhere?
George, London,
Of course there should be intervention but on a voluntary basis only. Like the International Brigades in Spain maybe the bleeding heart intellectuals can form their own battalions, invade Zimbabwe and show Mugabe that the pen is mightier than the sword. Got to be a great book in there chaps....
Mark, Liverpool, England
Intervention? Time to get your tin hat on, David.
How willing you people are to spend the blood of others.
J.pickin, northampton, uk
Have we not learn't by our mistakes of interfering with the politics of other countries. Whilst Mugabe is the evil figurehead when he goes the military will take over. However bad the situation is,it can only be fixed in Africa, by Africans. Mugabe loves this publicty, shut up! let them fix it
bill luke, st helens, UK
The case for intervention is clear, compelling and necessary to stop the tragedy.
"Let Africa resolve this" is not a viable option anymore. The someone who must do something is the UN.
David, Amsterdam, Netherlands
Does anybody REALLY think that a military intervention will bring peace and stability?
On what evidence can you support this? When in history has peace, real peace, emerged through force?
Redemptive violence is a myth, a dangerous one at that. We can't defeat hell by becoming demons.
Ed Freshwater, Aberdeen, Scotland
Ireland votes "no" so the EU says "vote again until you get it right", and backs its suggestion with threats and smears. This is a Good Thing.
Zimbabwe votes "no" so Mugabe says "vote again until you get it right" and backs his suggestion with threats and smears. This is a Bad Thing.
Wossgoinon?
Alan Calverd, bishops stortford, herts, UK
Why is everyone expecting Mandella to wave a magic wand and fix the situation, or maybe he'll go charging in Rambo-style with a sack full of grenades and a mini-gun slung over his shoulder? He's a very old man with no actual power.
Dave, Blackburn,
Tony of Bristol, 43% is overly inflated, lets not forget the thousands of 'ghost voters' on isolated plots of land that cast their ballots but were never present on voting day or the fact that the civil servants, army and police all have their numbers on their ballot slips - popular support or fear?
Simon, London,
How strange the world is, who would have thought twelve months ago President Bush's policy of direct intervention in foreign countries to unseat distasteful political leaders, would become a viable course of action talked about in the Western press?
Ricardo, Edinburgh,
It has been pretty obvious from the start.
If he stepped down he would:
a)Be prosecuted for his crimes or
b)He would be murdered.
He will never give up his power and ill gotten gains until he is forced to step down, preferably by his neighbours.
john, preston, uk
Without a true international rule of law, with a true independent international judiciary capable of ordering the use of force - as much force as is necessary to achieve the enforcement of the rule of that law - this sort of tyranny, with its endless suffering, will continue around the world forever
James E. Petts, Burnham, England
43% of the people in zimbabwe voted for him.
Tony Burkson, bristol, UK
You have a choice. Vote for the opposition, or vote for the dictator. The dictator happens to be holding a gun to your head and a machete at your child's throat. Who do you vote for?
Mike, London, England
For once, let's just keep our nose out. Let the Africans find a solution. Perhaps Mandela and his pals will wake up and be shamed into action.
vic, London, England.
The unsayable word, if you are of the left/liberal persuasion, is "recolonise". The sole remaining option, all touchyfeelytalkyliberal options having, predictably, failed.
Andrew Fanner, Cowplain, UK
Finally, a good editorial calling for armed intervention to bring Mugabe and his fellow thugs to justice. Frankly, the idea that Mugabe will bend to strongly-worded letters from the international community is ludricrous; the man is an 84-year old dictator who thinks Britain is out to get him.
Brett, Salt Lake City, USA
I believe we as Zimbabweans are dealing with tyrans worse than they look. Its 99% (Zim army included) of us Zimbabweans who could go upfront to free ourselves from this issue. All we require is a 'little' help.
Al, Harare, Zimbabwe
Unfortunately, there isn't a single 'leader' in the world today that would do a better job. They all lie, have a low opinion of 'the people', hate democracy, serve elites and the rich, take what they can from the public coffers, and consider themselves above the law. Zimbabwe is our future.
Miss Dee, Tayside, UK
"The idea that Mugabe will cave in to sanctions or diplomatic pressure is absurd" Yep, that's right. But military intervention just isn't viable. You can deride people who say that by calling them "hand wringers", but it doesn't change the fact that we can only do what we can do. Get over it.
Richard, London,
"Why don't we just offer the whites asylum ..". You must be joking! We've expelled those who've come here whilst retaining IslamoFascists & importing any one else. PC rules
What is needed is an international arrest warrant enforceable everywhere for Mugabe & named thugs. We should bottle them up.
M.Lester, London, UK
We should send a few cruise missiles to a few addresses, he is bound to be at one of them! That might get his attention. The bombing of Gadafi worked.
Baz, Liverpool, England
The oppositon failed to convince more than 50% of zims to vote for them. Mugabe is not as hated and despised as the BBC would like you to believe.43% of the people in zimbabwe voted for him.Any military dictator needs some support to be able to continue his despotic reign.Let Africa resolve this.
Tony Burkson, bristol, UK
I) offer the ruling junta (Mugabe is just a puppet of the Air Marshall and pals) a deal. Sanctuary with all your wealth in an African State or 2) we will kill you and your brothers
cousins supporters. There should be no war just the targetted murder of genocidal tyrants by not "us "this time.
David, Carlisle, UK
Unfortunately, all that will happen is more tsk-tsking and wringing of hands. Everyone says that, "Somebody should do something." However, no one is willing to take action because there would be a cost, and most nations are simply not willing to pay the price for their involvement.
World skeptic, Montana, USA
I blame South Africa and their incompetent 'leaders' for the whole mess over many years, all in cahoots together no doubt use the same Swiss banks. Military intervention? -don't be ridiculous. The SA regime is only a few years behind the Mugabe regime...watch this space.
Africa IS a basket case.
Robert Swift, Chelmsford, Essex.,
How many SA soldiers? Sorry they are a sorry lot themselves now. In the past it would only need 32 battallion to sort the whole country out. Now it would be chaotic.
Now the Zimbabwens must suffer like so many other Africans have due to the despotic leaderships Africa seems to throw up
Richard, London,
Only the Yanks and the UK could do it and they won't because of all the bitching about Iraq. So the "rest-of-the-world" are on their own - result? - nothing will happen except the sound of wringing hands.
Al, weybridge, UQ
The South African amy aint what it used to be. Poor discipline aged troops politically appointed leaders. Whereas the Zim army seems is large, lean and mean . Are we sure who would win?
GM Thomson, Sherborne,
Thank you to everyone who bothered to beat the drum on behalf of oppressed Zimbabweans. Keep right on. Louder, please! It 's not over yet.
P. Shepherd, Vevey, Switzerland
Mugabe should have been arrested for war crimes when he lorded it around Italy last month. Once again our spineless response to his despotism renders us virtually complicit. How does this compare with Iraq; our troops really WOULD have been greeted with dancing in the streets had they deposed Mugabe
Dale, Australia,
Bring on President Kagame of Rwanda. He ridicules the UN for its inefficiency (he should know!) the French for their complicity and the Africans for their hypocracy. The rest of the world talks: he's got troops in Darfur. I hope the new governemnt in Zim will also help Burma and Sudan.
alex stevenson, harare, zimabbwe
What many would call corruption ie. financial abuse like for example, the dipping into the country's coffers to enrich themselves beyond their wildest dreams is regarded by kleptocrats as no more than the prerogative of power.
So "power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely".
SD Goh, PJ, Malaysia
The powers of the world did their level best to rid Rhodesia of their legitimate government, now they wont do a thing to oust Mugabe. The same thing can be said about South Africa. The world opposed the so called Apartheid Government instead of using dialog for change. Look at SA now, a wreck.
Erica Elsted, Sydney, Australia
Mugabe likes the trappings of wealth and taking overseas trips. He reportedly came to Singapore recently for cancer treatment, and his wife likes shopping there. Can someone issue an international arrest warrant and stop him taking so many overseas vacations?
Peter, Singapore,
I don't know why we bother. Nothing will ever change for these people. Getting involved in a military venture is pointless. The next administration would be just as incompetant, just as useless.
From the land that gave you Somalia, Congo, Angola et al - bloody hopless.
Steve Melville, Sydney, Australia
Of course the world community won't do it.
Most Europeans would rather stay on the sidelines saying it can't be done,or it is too difficult,or that it isn't for us to say what is or isn't proper behavior.
Drew in KC, Kansas City,
There is no non-military solution to the Zimbabwe disaster. Even Mugabe's death will not remove the kleptocracy.
Faustino, Brisbane, Australia
Mugabe is the problem of the people of Zimbabwe - not us. The idea that we can run round the world deposing leaders and governments we don't like might sound good when couched in humanitarian terms but is a recipe for massive abuse. And it's even more attractive if they have oil or mineral wealth.
Dirk Bruere, Bedford, England
The South Africans are closest. The minute they start trundling their army north, it's over. But if they won't play, nobody else can.
J Lewis, Alexandria, US
It is time for a joint force to take him out, and his cronies with him. It would be a humanitarian mission, one that needs to be done for the sake of all the suffering people there. Later on, the war crimes they have committed should be investigated and prosecuted. Will the world community do it?
Rick Friedl, Edwards, USA/California
Mugabe must be arrested and put on trial for his crimes against humanity. If his thugs resist, violence against them and him is warranted. He's a mass murderer who has destroyed the Southern African continent.
Brien Comerford, Glenview, United States
Ian Smith was absolutely correct when he said that there would never be majority rule in Rhodesia.
Liam, Fernie, Canada
I thought the Brits didn't like militaristic intervention??? I simply remember them making a stink about the US doing the same thing in Iraq. The world isn' t as fine and dandy as you might think. Violence can be used for good,especially when it removes nasty dictators who have no place on earth
Jesse, I Love America, USA
Why don't we just offer the whites asylum (most are descendants of UK citizens anyway) and just leave Africa and its citizens to their own devices.
Phil, Luton,
Emotionally, I feel as you do and would certainly have no problem in sending in troops, but then again... Africa is a total mess because of Africans themselves and after Iraq, there is just one lesson, democracy cannot be given or imposed. Remove one lot to give a different bunch of thieves ?
John Haynes, Burnham on Sea, UK
'How many South African or British soldiers would it take to unseat the junta and disperse the Zanu (PF) veterans . . ?'
Not many. We could probably cluster bomb our way through their formations in a couple of days.
Then would come the insurgency.
Dave, Liverpool, UK
Mugabe will do whatever he has been doing for years, ignoring the outside world. Mugabe's "World View" is a narrow self created one along with his Zanuf-Pf cronies. They will bring Zimbabwe to the same state of 'Beggar Thy Neighbour' as Hitler & the nazis did in Germany. No Hope, Just Hell!
B Clark, Chelmsford, England