David Aaronovitch
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It was a strange conceit, I thought as I listened to their Laurel and Hardy act on the Today programme yesterday, to suggest that if Nicholas Soames and Frank Field agree on something, then they must be more likely to be right. And I imagine that they conceived that their rectitude was further enhanced by the support of the former Archbishop of Canterbury, Lord Carey of Clifton and the erratic Muslim Labour peer, Lord Ahmed. There they are then, bound together in a new group, Balanced Migration (well, it's hardly going to be called, “Chuck 'em Out” is it?), all their religious and ethnic bases cleared and ready for action. Though why, since they commissioned Migrationwatch UK (aka “Send 'em Back”) to create their platform for them, they didn't just join that organisation, is a bit obscure.
Balanced Migration is so called because it wants to create a rough balance between people going and people coming in. It imagines that by so doing it can limit Britain's population growth to “sustainable” levels, as well as limiting what Mr Field called the transformation of some neighbourhoods “from settled working-class communities to societies they can barely recognise”.
We are left to understand without discussion that such a transformation must, necessarily, be for the worse. The group might as well be called Chuck 'em Out, because its operating assumption is that there will be a huge excess of would-be immigrants over emigrants.
Balanced Migration recognises that employers like to take on migrant labour, but thinks that it can cut the link between people coming here to work, and people becoming citizens, a link that Mr Field described as occurring “invariably”.
I have to say that I would like to see the figures supporting this assertion, but let's move on. What is suggested is that migrant workers (shall we call them gastarbeiter?) be allowed to work here for four years. At the end of that period, if they've proved themselves to be exceptional workers (ie, 20 times as good as indigenous folk) they will be allowed to enter a national lottery for citizenship, which will have 20,000 winners. More, I suppose, if the number of Brits emigrating rises, fewer if it falls. If they either aren't exceptional enough, or don't draw a winning ticket, then they can - let's not beat around this bush, eh? - push off back to where they came from.
This is a hugely unattractive procedure, especially, one would have thought, for a Christian such as Mr Field. Although I suppose that we could always permit a Big Brother type mega-vote on the BBC to follow the lottery draw, with the viewing public deciding a proportion of the winners and losers. It will certainly boost the chances of Goan transsexuals becoming British citizens. But why go through this process at all?
Demographics, ostensibly. Or rather, the crude version of a demographic discussion that the malign influences of Migrationwatch UK, the Daily Mail and government cowardice seem to permit us.
As Mr Field puts it, in less than 25 years the population will grow by seven million, and this will “require building seven new Birminghams”. Incidentally, the unit of apocalyptic population growth varies from organisation to organisation. The barmy Malthusians at the Optimum Population Trust estimate their Armageddon at 57 Lutons, yet others have a problem with Cardiff. The European Commission, Mr Field said, had “predicted that within 50 years Britain would become the most highly populated country in Europe”. Mr Soames brought forward that moment by four decades on the radio yesterday, simply by confusing England with the United Kingdom.
I wonder if Mr Field knows just how unreliable this prediction is? In 1955 government projections assumed a UK population in 1993 of 53 million. The actual figure was 5million more. The reason that the projection was so wrong was that it had not anticipated the baby boom of the 1960s. So for the 1965 projection, now knowing better, the assumption was made that by 2000 there would be a UK population of 75 million. Birth rates fell; the 2000 population was 59 million.
Since 1965 two things have happened to affect long-term population predictions. The most important, numerically, is probably improved life-expectancy rates, and the second is net immigration. But what does this tell us about the future? The statistician Chris Shaw, who wrote a study recently on population forecasting, quoted the American demographer, MichaelS. Teitelbaum as saying that “projecting immigration is impossible, but unavoidable!”. In other words, be careful. We now live in an era of high mobility and rapid demographic change, and - like house prices - what has gone up can come down. For example, the migration assumptions underlying government predictions are that net immigration will plateau out at an annual level above that for any year except 2001 and 2005. In other words, they are very probably too high.
Already about half of those economic migrants who came to Britain from Eastern Europe after 2004 have left. The number of applications for work entries fell by more than 20 per cent between comparable periods in 2007 and 2008. You don't have to be Nostradamus to realise that the coming recession will see that drop further, possibly dramatically. These days even relatively small fluctuations in exchange rates lead to big changes. The predictions, then, are pretty worthless.
This is how the world is, Frank. People, especially young people, brought up with satellite news and the internet, will try to follow their angels and will generally succeed. Read that letter yesterday from the High Mistress of St Paul's Girls' School about how many of her pupils now go on to American universities.
Our 2015 problem may well not be keeping mobile, motivated workers out, but desperately trying to attract them, not least to look after that other unexpected population surge - in the dependent over-80s. The studies are pretty clear: economic migrants bring with them dynamism, innovation and hard work.
Nor are the people that we will need all highly qualified, in the way that the Government's bureaucratic points system seems to assume. But why would many of them, especially workers who, in Mr Field's phrase “do well”, want to face Balanced Migration's insulting lottery? We will lose them to countries that take a more enlightened attitude to globalisation and its challenges.
What should remain is the need for far more flexible planning and a much more plastic idea of the nature of community, because there is no more refuge to be had in demographic protectionism than there is in its economic cousin. Little and Large would make things worse, not better.
David Aaronovitch is a writer, broadcaster and commentator on international politics and the media. He writes for The Times Comment page on Tuesdays. He has previously written for The Guardian, The Observer and The Independent, winning numerous accolades, including Columnist of the Year 2003 and the 2001 Orwell prize for journalism. He has appeared on the satirical TV current affairs programme Have I Got News For You and made radio broadcasts on historical topics
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I ask everyone on here - What are you doing about it ??
Don't just type - make your views count - either vote for the BNP or similar or if you are only provided with one party - i.e. the LibLabCon's (they are all the same) spoil your paper - as there is no box to say you don't agree with any
jack, Blackburn, UK
I am ecstatic to see we are moving so quickly from "let any one in" to "chuck 'em out".
If we keep this up we might get our country back in a few years !!
That will sort the housing shortages - British people can live in them !! A bit radical , I know, but fingers crossed !!
Keep it up
Damien, Manchester, England
Further to David's claim that they will all leave now we are in the mire !
1. That's great then - come here for the good times and then leave with all the cash !!!
2. The real rubbish that we have let in will not be going anywhere -- they will need a push.
CONTROL is an imperative!
James, Sheffield, UK
I make the arduous trek over virtual land and sea to read David's articles here because he doesn't write for the Graun any more. If here wasn't writing here, I wouldn't be reading here.
RPT_O, Stafford,
Most young whites planning to leave? Millions of people? Total bunk; most of those who are are being driven by a mad property bubble which is now bursting! Crowded trains and roads, all the result of the worst infrastructure in Europe. But it's easier to blame the people who clean our hospitals.
Gerry, Belfast, N Ireland
David could be right about immigration falling off, in which case perhaps we wouldn't need to ask foreign workers to leave after 4 years, so what have we lost in having such a policy ready. But what if he's wrong? We must have a policy.
peter, cirencester,
Most young whites are already planning to leave or being advised to leave. Logic now dictates these islands are headed for a very bloody future due to wooly thinking of this type and crass govt and economic mismanagement.
Dave, Chorley,
What will happen is all the ethnic British people will leave the country as more and more migrants flood in. Not a future for Britain many of us would hope for.
Claire, London, UK
Is David Aaronovitch really naive enough to believe that people from third world countries will return home to a land steeped in bribery, corruption and poverty? Many people from Africa, Asia and China risk their life to get here to get here - they don't want to go back to the life they had!
John, London, UK
"Let the labour-market handle it" is great in theory. But our labour-makret is massively warped by unconditional welfare. Introduce a 5-year immigrant wait rule for all welfare and you'll see the immigration "problem" disappear over night.
Diversity IS great, unconditonal welfare is outrageous.
Bertie , London,
Of course immigration will fall as employment opportunities, benefits and social housing are curtailed due to a shrinking economy.
Three quarter of a million Brits have decided opportunties are better elsewhere.
Can't be long before millions of economic migrants decide the same.
John Collins, Bromley, Kent
has any body given a thought if the british had not migrated to northern america, australia, new zealand and africa how peaceful the world would have been.
rajan mathew, BIRMINGHAM, united kingdom
And if we do lose talent we need to other countries it doesn't occur to DA that it might be because other countries have not had their quality of life trashed by overcrowding.All the other places people might want to go to have immigration controls to stop it happening.
Ian, Sheffield, UK
David Aaronovitch arguments are akin to those who deny climate change is man made. Lots of irrelevant bluff, you can argue all you like about how population projections are notoriously inaccurate. Sitting in a a traffic jam or an overcrowded train and I know the answer that Britain is overcrowded.
Mike, Liverpool, Merseyside
Paradise in 1815? Er, no. The country was bankrupt after a long war (against Napoleon) and 1816 was known as the year with no summer because the weather was so bad.
Nothing changes. We just have more people living here.
Dave, Slough,
What's not in doubt is that the demography and culture of Britain has been deliberately, and massively, changed over the last 50 years (for better or worse), without the existing population being asked if that's what it wants. The arrogance, and implicit fascism, behind that drive is outrageous.
Ken Leyland, Liverpool, U.K.
The population is way too high now. The South East of England is one of the most densely populated places in the world.
I spent 2 hours on the school run this morning. My childs school is 10 miles away and there is no other transport option. We have talent , mobility stalls on social housing.
Lucy, Surrey, UK
Why does DA not "follow his angels"?as he puts it,if he's so alarmed at a realistic approach to immigration coming in. Please.
D.Grant, Hinckley, England
Stop giving out dole. British citizens will get back to work and employers will have no need to seek migrant workers.
Talyn, Uxbridge, UK
The more the merrier I say :)
Lupe Fiasco, London,
It's too late already. The Loony Left have won by destroying the indigenous population of Europe and turning it into just another Third World swamp. What has been gained? Absolutely nothing, unless there's something afoot which we know not of. What has been lost? Common sense.
Don, Glasgow & Dorset, UK
Aaronovitch fails to appreciate that no indigenous population wants to change as much as its migrants want to change it. If you want to change a country then change your own. No migrant influx in recent times ever changed a country for the better. Most caused huge problems that are still unresolved.
J Harker, London, UK
Armand, I'm sorry to tell you that Jack the Ripper didn't strike until 1888. That's a long time after 1815.
John F, London,
Yet it seems that Britain is still ready to show remorse to bogus asylum seekers because it would be against human rights to kick them out and similar nonsense.
Yet millions of Britons that can't be asked to work claim that foreigners are stealing their jobs.
Control of all immigration please.
Marina, Geneva, Switzerland
David, you've missed the point. The sustainable maximum UK population is under 30 million. Somehow, we need to reverse our current growth, which is being caused by immigration. If that were "balanced", our population would gradually reduce. How better do you think could we achieve this?
George Lord, London, UK
I am an independent recruitment consultant and have just started an initiative to recruit Romanian pharmacists to work in the UK. So far I have not had one single CV. Perhaps they realise that GB is no longer the land of milk and honey it once was.
Charles Bell, Cluj Napoca, Romania
I guess David Aaronovitch's approach encapsulates the biggest issue here. You can't have a debate involving immigration without some-one shouting -kick em out. Even if it is impossible to be right about the numbers you still have to have a strategy- ideally a population objective and strategy.
roger bartley, battle, tn33 Ohn
Ahh, the paradise of 1815 - where 8 year olds were sent down chimney's to clean, life expectancy was 25 years, jack the ripper roamed the streets, and the Thames was heavily polluted along with the choking smoke in the air of London...
Paradise indeed
Armand Tamzarian, London,
Mark:
Presumably in referring to Labour and "the liberal elite" you include Cameron's Tories?
Myles, Glasgow,
Over 86% of the UK population want considerably less immigration immediately - it is out of control and has been for the last 10 years. If people come here to work, why should they have a right to become a British citizen? They shouldn't. Earn money, but then go home.
Anthony, London, W2, UK
Of course getting rid of settled communities and replacing them with alien ones is a change for the worse. What an extraordinary idea that it is not. Anywhere else except DAs mind that would be called ethnic cleansing.
Fred, Southampton, UK
An utterly predictable article. Sorry, England is the size of a small US state, eg Indiana. It cannot take more of this uncontrolled flow of repopulation, on the terms of the politically correct apparchiks now in charge. Frank Field is one of the few decent MPs. Educate new plumbers etc - simple.
Janice, Witney, UK
i thought you lived in the US - have you any idea how the UK has changed in the last 10 years??
adrian, london,
I go to Oslo quite often, its %immigration is maybe higher than UK. From what I hear the Norwegians are quite alarmed at the wayt their govt has let this change happen without any vote from the indigineous population.. So,not different to here really.
rikrok, London, uk
Immigrants leave their homes for a chance at a better life. Wealthier countries accept them because they will do worse jobs for less pay. Is it exploitation or giving people a chance? Either way its hypocrisy to focus on cultural enrichment (the fringe benefit) when ultimately its just about money.
Charlie, Paris, France
Take a peek at the 2001 census figures and family reproduction rates. Islam bans contraception, that explains most of it. So much of the prediction depends on the culture and religion of migrants - Mr Field's projection could be an under estimate, quite easily.
Ib, Dalston, UK
I do like the idea of 5 million or so people and clean rivers.
Idyllic.Maybe Norway is the way to go....
rikrok, London , uk
Its too late to fix. It will take a decades to put the UK economy back into balance. In the meantime I am advising my children to seek their futures abroad where they can keep more of what they earn in a society with less PC and public sector burden.
Stephen Marchant, Newton Abbot, UK
Let's face it. Eastern Europeans came here to get away from the aftermath of socialism, only to find they had walked into the labour party's version of the same. Why would they stay now that the situation at home is improving?
KR, Stockport,
Fatty Arbuckle criticising Laurel and Hardy ?
G.Reid, Birkenhead, England
Jean H, Oslo, Norway - "the UK needs to attract the best talent from all over". But we aren't doing this! The UK is a free for all with no controls or limits. Illegal immigrants seem to have endless rights, whereas those obeying the law are made to jump through hoops. The whole system is wrong!
EW, Southampton, UK
Why come to Britain when places like Norway exist? Besides, isn't there quite a bit of economic emigration from Britain already? (i.e. lots of people quitting Britain to live somewhere where the cost of living is cheaper) DA is right - immigration is a policy area that needs a big rethink.
Nullius, London, UK
The reason E Europeans have left is due to the weakness of STG v the Euro. They will be back.
Your logic is that immigrants themselves will never grow old, however they too will need looking after in their later life ramping up the population still further.
We will just all have to work longer
Patty O' Doors, Oxford,
Modern day Britain is so hung up on being politically correct that immigration has become a far bigger issue than it should be. Australia has stringent immigration controls and it is in a far better state than Britain. We have developed an irrational fear about being seen as bigoted or racist.
Dr. Barclay, Dundee, Scotland
One of the problems surrounding the debate on immigration is that it is classified as all good or all bad by different groups. 14% of the UK prison population are foreign nationals, many people working for the NHS are also foreign nationals. More needs to be done to differentiate good from bad.
chris bronfman, London,
Yes we might have problems getting workers to stay as the tax is so high in the UK but we will have no problems getting all the spongers to stay.
This Government needs to take a reality check, have any of them been to the East End lately? Or Tooting?
Tom Wright, Reigate,
Balanced migration - The sadness of watching the children that you have raised and educated migrate to Oz, NZ and Canada whilst undeducated newcomers take their place on the statistics.
Ken, Coventry, UK
If Labour and the liberal elite want an 'open door' policy and propose to destroy the countryside and our national identity in pursuing that policy then they should have the courage and honesty to state that openly. As it is they are dishonestly attempting to pursue their own agenda by stealth.
Mark, Berkhamsted,
Britain needs is to depopulate. If only we had about 5 milliuon people in Britain this country would be the paradise it was in 1815. It would then be as beautiful as Norway with clean sparkling rivers and streams. Immense forests teeming with life and pristine beautiful coastline.
Keith bentham, Wigan, uk
It is all to easy to be horrified by immigration controls in the UK, when you live in one of the world's richest, healthy and socially stable countries, i.e., Norway.
Steven, London,
The Australians are leaving, the Poles are leaving. Britain's becoming so extreme that even the immigrants are emigrating. Some of them. And as multiculturalism becomes diversity... Britain is Humpty Dumpty; no way can it be put back together.
Andrew Milner, Karuizawa, Japan
One Luton is quite enough.
Craig Strachan, Los Angeles, USA
I too am horrified by Immigration controls -we live in a globalized world and the UK needs to attact the best talent from all over if we are not too wither and die ,,,
Jean H, Oslo, Norway