Gerard Baker
The man, the films, those blondes. Free DVD collection starting this Sunday
For all its overbearing confidence and famously self-focused view of the universe, it’s been a long time since New York played a central role in the outcome of a US presidential election.
Since the realignment of American politics that began in the 1960s, and the conservative ascendancy that followed, New York has been too liberal, too northeastern, too libertine even, for the strait-laced sensitivities of middle America.
The last New Yorker who looked like a serious contender was Mario Cuomo. Hamlet on the Hudson, as he was known, a silver-tongued orator and the state’s Democratic governor, famously agonised publicly for months over whether to seek his party’s nomination against George Bush Sr in 1992. As with Shakespeare’s Great Dane, the native hue of Mr Cuomo’s resolution was sicklied o’er with the pale cast of thought, and he let his moment pass.
Bobby Kennedy was an adoptive New Yorker when he ran for the presidency in 1968. His soaring potential was of course brutally downed by that depressingly familiar fixture in American sociopathy, tragically on display again this week, the crazed gunman with a grudge.
You have to go all the way back to Franklin Roosevelt to find a successful New York candidate for president. Even he didn’t quite fit what we think of in today’s terms as a New Yorker. The political geography of his Hyde Park home could have been transplanted from rural Ohio or Virginia.
Recently, New Yorkers have been fringe candidates — single issue people such as Al Sharpton, the Democratic firebrand black preacher, or Steve Forbes, the clever billionaire who campaigned for radical tax reform on the Republican side but whose eccentricities suggested flat earth more than flat tax.
But here we are, 18 months away from the next election, and the US presidential contest could pass for a heated debate between a doughnut and a coffee vendor in Times Square. The Democratic front-runner is Senator Hillary Clinton, some time Illinois native, Arkansas resident, Washington DC habitué, but who has made up for her out-of-state beginnings with a wholehearted embrace of the Big Apple.
On the Republican side, the current favourite, it seems, is Rudy Giuliani, New York City’s former Mayor. He is much closer to the popular image of a New Yorker than Mrs Clinton: garrulous, pugnacious, a mite eccentric, but his post-9/11 stewardship of City Hall lifted him into the front ranks of contenders.
Meanwhile, the city is abuzz with news that Michael Bloomberg, Mr Giuliani’s successor as mayor, is carefully tending his own aspirations. Should Americans grow bored with the long nature of the race, he thinks he could emerge as a third-party contender. I was amused to hear him address a conference in Washington last month on the somewhat heavy subject of American financial markets and their global competitiveness. The ambitious mayor quickly left the arid territory of financial regulation and capital market integration and ventured with passion into the lush political lowlands of immigration, education and growing inequality, a performance that prompted Robert Rubin, the former Democratic Treasury Secretary, sitting alongside him to quip that it looked like a presidential declaration there and then.
It all sounds like a New Yorker’s fantasy, or depending on your view, some sort of bad joke — the next election a three-way New York tussle between a Democrat, a Republican and a serious and wealthy independent. For good measure, in happy replication of the city’s complex ethnic and religious mix, a Protestant, a Catholic and a Jew to boot.
I suspect it will remain a fantasy, however. Mr Bloomberg’s ambitions are the longest of long shots and Mr Giuliani’s liabilities in the Republican Party — a firm commitment to socially permissive laws on abortion, gay marriage and other matters — still look likely to outweigh his not inconsiderable assets.
Mrs Clinton is a different matter, of course, but my conversations with a number of prominent New York Democrats this week suggest that, most remarkably, she too may be faltering in unexpected ways.
Throughout its years in the presidential wilderness, New York has still played an important role in the mechanics of Democratic presidential politics. The city — and to some extent New York state — is, to paraphrase what the famous felon Willie Sutton said to explain why he robbed banks, “where the money is”.
Despite its strong Republican connections, Wall Street has long been an important source of funding for the Democrats and their candidates. New York’s media elite and the professional plutocracy of the city that inclines strongly liberal in its political predilections further bolster Democrats’ bank accounts. So far this money has been funnelling towards Mrs Clinton in predictably large sums.
But that may be changing. One prominent New York Democratic rainmaker told me this week that in the past few weeks there has been a significant shift in sentiment towards Barack Obama, the black senator from Illinois, who has in the six months since he first declared his interest, steadily upended the Democratic race.
More and more Democrats seem to be willing to shed their doubts about Mr Obama’s inexperience — he is only 45 and has served in the Senate for just two years — and sign up for him. Opinion polls in the last few weeks have shown the gap between Mrs Clinton and Mr Obama closing.
The money is starting to follow — Mr Obama already raised more cash for the Democratic primary race in the first quarter of 2007 than did Mrs Clinton. The reason seems to be not so much the doubts some have about Mrs Clinton’s personality, but a powerful desire across the country for real change from the politics, not only of the last six enervating years of the Bush presidency, but of the last couple of decades.
If they are right Mr Obama may be catching a Zeitgeist that is not just American, but global. Voters in France this weekend will cast their first votes for their next president. If the polls are accurate, the clear favourite seems to be Nicolas Sarkozy, the former Interior Minister and a man whose policy prescriptions seem to promise a radical break with the widely despised Jacques Chirac, but also with the whole fabric of French politics and economics for the past 30 years.
In Britain, Gordon Brown’s biggest enemy is a similar desire for real change that could propel David Cameron’s Tories into office.
In New York, a powerful Wall Street figure summed up the mood like this: “People think Obama is where the world is today,” he told me. “Hillary is where the world was in the past.”

Gerard Baker is United States Editor and an Assistant Editor of The Times. He joined in 2004 from the Financial Times, where he had spent over ten years as Tokyo correspondent and Washington Bureau Chief. His weekly oped column appears on Fridays
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Greg Hoover writes "Why reference his race here where it is not relevant?"
I was born and raised in London, and have lived here for twenty years. If there's one thing you need to know about America, it's that race is always relevant. In fact, race is the national obsession.
Obama cannot win without carrying Southern states, and many Southern voters ould rather vote for their dustbin than a black man.
Let us not forget that the South historically voted Republican until Lincoln 'betrayed' them'and attempted to emancipate blacks, whereupon its voters switched en masse and supported the Democrats for about 100 years - that is, until the Democratic Party 'betrayed' them by supporting Civil Rights for blacks, whereupon they switched en masse again and have voted Republican ever since. (cont...)
Ron C, Brooklyn, New York, USA
Greg Hoover asks, "Why reference his race here where it is not relevant?"
If there's one thing you need to know about America, it's that race is the national obsession. Race is always relevant here, even when it's should be irrelevant. I was born and raised in London. I have lived here in the States for twenty years.
Racism here is premised on the bizarre belief that persons of African ancestry are genetically inferior, regardless of what their accomplishments. So, a man living on a trailer park in Alabama, who makes 15,000 dollars a year picking up rubbish in the State park, seriously believes that the black neurosurgeon who his daughter just started dating, at the hospital where she she works, is inferior to him. In fact, he believes that all black doctors, engineers, solicitors, professors, etc., are inferior to him. That includes Obama.
Southern voters historically voted Republican, until Abraham Lincoln 'betrayed' them by supporting freedom for blacks
Ron C, Brooklyn, New York, USA
P.S...
Don't trust the polls either, because, as pollsters here know all too well, white Americans habitually lie about their support in bi-racial elections:
"Pre-election polling is tricky work. A number of unknown factors can stand in the way of accurate predictions -- problems with identifying registered and likely voters, uncertainties about voter turnout, and last-minute shifts in candidate preference. But estimating voter preferences in biracial elections has been especially difficult. Pre-election surveys, even those taken just days before voters go to the polls, often substantially underestimate support for white candidates in races where the other candidate is African-American.
This phenomenon, which some pollsters call "racial slippage," was a factor in at least four highly-competitive biracial contests during the 1980s and 1990.... independent media polls consistently over-predicted the margin of victory for the black candidates."
Ron C, Brooklyn, New York, USA
If you had read his book "The Audacity Of Hope" you would know that he speaks from his heart. I love the fact that he doesn't accept lobbyist money (he turned away $50,000 a couple weeks ago when he found out it was from a lobbyist)
He is actually more middle of the road than you may think. He explains his ideas in his book-but he also wants to hear from the American people, rather than just trying to pass legislation without our consent.
I, like many who have chosen him, think that it's not such a bad thing that he hasn't been in Washington very long. Many of the people who have are corrupt, or only listen to the Americans who have money.
The majority of Americans are middle class or poor and a lot more are moving into the poor category because companies are moving their operations out of our country and cutting wages, regardless of performance. It is close to impossible to find a good paying job to support your family without going to college, and college is expensive.
Frances, Wichita, KS
So you all think that it can't be worse after 8 years of Dubya. You ain't seen nothing yet. Obama, the man who has already written his memoirs. Has never run anything larger than his ambitions!
Jean Arrache, Montreal, Canada
You are right. Hillary is bright, experienced, and very talented, but every time I see her i'm reminded of the whole sordid Clinton presidency, the scandals, etc. I look at Obama and I want to look forward to the future. The Clinton/Bush generation had their chance, their time on the stage. They all now look old and helpless. We need to move forward, give new, young leaders a chance, and I'm betting that Obama is the right man for our times.
Barry Ronan, La Quinta, CA, USA
Anybody wil be better than Bush (or another republican) of course, but Obama is totally unproven. He's just got 2 years in office, and has not really clear views on where he is heading with the USA.
(Segolene Royal is equally unclear on where she is taking France, unless down the drain.)
Bill, Bristol, UK
8 years as a state senator, 4 years as a U.S Senator (by the time he assumes the presidency), Years as a professor, and we still do think he's "experience" enough? (1) I guess most of us should not aspire to become president. JFK shouldn't have either.
(2) what then does one need to be considered experienced?
ronald, bronx, usa
Obama's fatuous comments in his speech this week told more about his "vision" of the world than anything else has said. His chances of the nomination are as good as mine, and I am a Republican!, I also do not beleieve that Mrs Clinton has a chance. Who does? As the bookies would say it is an open field.
Desmond Taylor, Houston, USA Texas
It's going to be a very rough road ahead for Obama and there will be unscrupulous mudslinging from the shock jocks on the right of the political spectrum but I feel the journalist's sentiments were correct. People here even in the south of the USA, down to earth people, feel it is time for a massive change, they feel politicians are not taking the real issues like global warming, foreign debt, disappearing manufacturing jobs and real healthcare seriously enoughand the swing to the left is continuing apace.
Richard Tucker, Cotter, USA
Re: Greg Hoover in London - Not to worry. Two years hence Mr. Obama will still be a referred to as Senator.
Alan Hofstad, Dallas, Texas, USA
By the time November rolls around, I think very few folks are going to have much interest in voting for any Republican that reminds them of the Rove/DeLay era. There was a very refreshing display of independence yesterday during the Gonzales hearing by some senior Republican senators that remember a time when politicians put country before party. I don't think it is these moderates that will have trouble holding their seats in '08, I think it will be those that are too slow to sense that the winds are changing.
Fred, Lincoln,
America may be ready for a change in principle but how does this equate to its current practice and the present state of the world. Then would Obama or Clinton fit into this equation? The American way of life differs considerably from that of most other countries, so the next President surely needs to be someone who is acceptable to the Establishment but can place America in a more stable and congenial relation to the rest of the world.
Henry Percy, London, UK
there is indeed a growing feeling here, 'across the pond' that America needs a new direction. It is clear that America SHOULD have not gone back to another President Bush, having already 'done' that in the late 80's and early 90'. Now there is the feeling of not really wanting to re-do the Clinton years, but instead go in a new direction. The Senator from Illinois is enjoying the fruits of that yearning. BEEN THERE, DONE THAT, may propel Mr Obama to the White House.
Ben Hilton, PORTLAND, Oregon, USA
I agree, Americans do desire a radical (for Americans) change. Senator Obama is a fresh face and a likable one. My only reservation about annointing him is that it is still early in the game and there are others.
Money though it is a major factor, is not the only important factor. If a smart but less well financed candidate can take the first two or three primary and caucus contests the money will follow for a competitive campaign.
As to the Republicans: They are all increasingly, looking like long shots.
Jim Walton, Washington, DC
You may be well-read but I doubt that you've read either of his books. My view of the coming election is that many Republicans who retains even a somewhat close tie with the Bush administration will be risking an end to their careers. There was a refreshing display of bipartisanship at yesterday's hearing on Attorney General Gonzales, with moderate and even conservative Republicans finally showing some independence. Many were veterans who remember more better times when both parties put good of the Country ahead of partisan concerns. While Obama does not conform to the Republican position on issues tailored to win the support of single-issue voters, I don't think these issues will carry the day any longer The days of Rove and Delay are coming to an end, and it can't come soon enough for for me.
Fred, Lincoln, MA/USA
Obama is a brilliant, though inexperienced, politician.
Sadly, because he doesn't understand how the US economy works, he's unqualified to run the country, as are any politicians who voted against the tax cuts that saved our economy, which exists ONLY on a foundation of healthy, thriving business.
I pray we are not stupid enough to elect this man.
bob, terdsburg, nh/usa
And so, where will be the world today if it is represented by Sen Obama? What will be the details of our new foreign policy, or of our new tax policy, or of our new health care system, etc? And assuming that Sen. Obama must make compromises with Congress, what will he consider his priorities?
Charles Oltorf, Austin, Texas, USA
The only change Gordon Brown represents is an upward movement of tax revenue into the government's coffers. Unfortunately he probably has more chance of inheriting the national leadership than Obama does.
KR, Stockport,
"Barack Obama, the black senator from Illinois."
Why reference his race here where it is not relevant? Will Mr Baker be calling him "black President Obama" in two years time?
Greg Hoover, London,
There is certainly an overwhelming desire in the US to have an end to the disastrous Bush presidency, but whether that mean automatic enthronement for Obama is much more of an open question. Some of the polls, for what they are worth at this stage in the game have shown Obama narrowing his gap with Mrs Clinton, others have shown her lead widening. Baker's ridiculous selective comments from people he doesn't identify commenting on Clinton's fortunes are both silly and lazy journalism. I can find millions that think George Bush is America's greatest president, in fact I believe Mr Baker uses to think that way at one time. Clinton is a very accomplished candidate. Her position in the polls has never moved out of the mid thirties, she has piles of money, a formidable machine, and the much admired Bill Clinton. The bookies have her at the shortest odds, they and not Mr Baker, are probably closer to the truth.
John, CT, USA
I do not agree. Obama is a media creation. Pure and simple. The man has no track record and he has a 95% liberal voting record in the US senate - very out of touch with the American electorate. He is pro-choice, pro-gun control, anti-tax cut, pro0-affirmative action - all the hallmarks of elites like a NY wallstreeter and traits that continually lose at the ballot box....Middle America is center-right and all recent election figures (majority of the states) reflect that.....I live in Mr. Obama's state of Illinois....I myself am very well read, well educated and have weighed the options....The man is actually very out of touch with American sensiblities...Could he win? sure he could win via the Electoral college or via against a poor Republican candidate.....But the bottom line is that Obama really does not represent change...he represents a media creation with liberal ideas that are by all means out of touch and favor with the majority of the American electorate....
Karl, Bensenville, USA, IL
Thank you for recognizing Senator Obama's geniunity , abilty to bring everyone together and give us back the great country of the United States of America, once again.
The Senator has something deeper beyond his "cute" look and charisma.
Smith, New York, NY
If Obama's votes and views in the Illinois legislature follow thru' to proposed presidential policies he'll be the most left wing candidate on the ballot bar none.
No thanks.
Stan(expat), USA, USA
People think Obama is where the world is today, '
Well, he needs to come down south then, because Mr Obama is certainly not the world of today here...
He's black, she's a women and America isn't ready for either, unfortunately.
Another white old man is coming...
G.L.Lawrence, Miami,
Barack Hussein Obama has no chance unless he changes his name. Bozo the Clown could beat him or Hillary Clinton in 2008. Back to Obama, what has he done? Two years as senator and what else has he done?
Paul DeMaurian, Baton Rouge, LA,