Gerard Baker
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to The Sunday Times
Last week in these pages I noted the unusually large number of New Yorkers in the running for the US presidency. Hillary Clinton, Rudolph Giuliani and the current mayor of the city, Michael Bloomberg, all have high hopes of representing Democrats, Republicans and independents respectively in next year’s election. But in my customary haste, I omitted to mention perhaps the best-known face of all in the race.
Arthur Branch is the District Attorney for New York County, the official, legal name for Manhattan. He is that unusual but highly attractive political figure – a successful, elected conservative Republican in an overwhelmingly Democratic city. How successful? No Republican has held the Manhattan DA position since Thomas Dewey in the 1930s, who later became governor and was famous for momentarily beating Harry S. Truman in the 1948 presidential election – at least in a newspaper headline – before the real results said otherwise.
Mr Branch combines a gruff, laconic manner with a suitably tough approach to crime in the big city. As DA he rarely prosecutes cases himself these days but exhorts his team of subordinates to visit the full majesty of the law on his criminal targets. He supports capital punishment and has a robustly conservative approach to the law, deriding those who take a creative view of the US Constitution.
Even so, when occasion demands, this Draco of the American judicial system can be pragmatic and occasionally crosses his zealous underlings by agreeing to messy plea bargains with the ugly procession of murderers, rapists, terrorists and child molesters that wanders through his offices.
As a presidential contender his experience makes him a compelling law and order candidate. Then again, that may be because he is the Law and Order candidate.
If you are an aficionado of television detective series you will know that Mr Branch’s other name is Fred Thompson, the actor who plays this entirely fictional character in Law and Order.
Though as yet formally unannounced, Mr Thompson’s candidacy is probably right now the most talked about in American politics. Just the merest hint a few weeks ago that he was pondering a run energised the Republican race, and the momentum is building. An opinion poll of Republican voters published in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal put Mr Thompson third among the party’s candidates, narrowly behind Senator John McCain and Mr Giuliani, the current fragile front-runner.
To be fair, Mr Thompson is not just an actor with a great Hollywood repertoire of leadership roles (in films and TV he has been a White House chief of staff, a submarine commander and the head of the Central Intelligence Agency). He was a senator from 1994 to 2002 for his home state of Tennessee, where he was wildly popular as a man of the local soil. Back in the 1970s he earned his first political stripes as a young lawyer on the Watergate Committee conducting impeachment proceedings against President Richard Nixon, where he sat alongside an idealistic liberal named Hillary Rodham, later Clinton. If his hagiographers are correct, he was the man who coined the damning question that formed on the lips of the nation: “What did the President know and when did he know it?”
What is more, Mr Thompson, unlike the other contenders in the Republican race, seems like a genuine conservative (who would have thought Republicans had to turn to Hollywood to find one of those?). He has a consistent record of being ant-iabortion, pro-tax cuts and a stolid defender of US military action.
And yet for all his real-world government service and his good conservative credentials, it is hard to escape the feeling that Mr Thompson is lighting up the contest at the moment because he is the Imaginary Candidate. Republican voters, demoralised by their present political condition and unenthused by their current field of candidates, are projecting their hopes and ideals on to a man that most still know best only as an entertainer. Much in his background remains unexamined – it is not widely known, for example, that before he commanded fictional submarines and prosecuted make-believe criminals, he was a real-life Washington lobbyist, stained, it can be safely presumed, by some of the grime you have to wade through to do that job effectively.
Comparisons with Ronald Reagan are seductive but a bit of a stretch. Though Mr Reagan, the middling B-movie actor, was never taken seriously by the Left (to their great cost), by the time he ran for the presidency he had built an extraordinary curriculum vitae, not only as governor of the nation’s largest state but as a leading figure in the battle of ideas that conservatives came to dominate in the late 1960s and 1970s.
The excitement around Mr Thompson reveals not just a dissatisfaction with the available Republican contenders, but a much larger escapism on the part of voters, anxious to flee the present-day horrors of real-life Washington. Barack Obama, suddenly now becoming the leading Democratic contender, may not have acted in any movies but his message of hope and change offers the same idealised blank slate for Democrats disillusioned by their own tired and uninspiring leaders.
President George Bush’s ineptitude and increasingly bunkered immobilism makes Americans yearn for something new, even if it may not be wholly believable. But so too does Harry Reid, the Democratic leader in the Senate, who this week matched the Bush Administration’s tin-eared, ham-fisted flailing with a profoundly stupid declaration that in effect, the US has already lost the war in Iraq but should go on fighting it for another six months in any case.
No wonder, given what’s on offer, that Americans are in a mood to embrace the Imaginary Candidates. But unlike Hollywood, where the audience’s willing suspension of disbelief is a necessary part of the bargain, in politics hard reality always prevails, and disappointment is almost guaranteed.

Gerard Baker is United States Editor and an Assistant Editor of The Times. He joined in 2004 from the Financial Times, where he had spent over ten years as Tokyo correspondent and Washington Bureau Chief. His weekly oped column appears on Fridays
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Dream on. As Mondale campaign manager Bob Beckel has pointed out, Thompson's communications skills make him a Democratic nightmare. As somebody who has been rooting for a Thompson candidacy since he made mincemeat out of the Democratic apologia for their attempt to steal Florida in 2000, I can only smile at those on the Left who are in denial about the one Republican who would clean the clocks of Hillary or Obama or Edwards in 2008.
Bob Waters, Des Moines, Iowa
Mr. Tuttle,
I have always found it helps not to make spelling and grammar mistakes when you assault someone's "intellectual capacity."
Michael Henshaw, Sarasota, USA, Florida
Fred Thompson stands out as a true conservative in a field of wishy-washy pseudo Republicans. Just look at the rest of the pack, they have spent most of their careers trying to appease Democrats or just plain opposing their own party. Thompson has more virtue in his little finger than these other guys will ever have. There is a large and growing voice calling for him to run and it looks like he will!
Peter Henden, Dalton, NH
Like most reporters/columnists you got your facts about half right. Fred didn't play a sub captain in Red October, he played the commander of an aircraft carrier and its task group. Fred was not just a Senator, he was chairman of a Senate committee. You made light of him being a real successful prosecutor. The main attraction for me is that he can speak a whole sentence that is grammatically correct and makes sense.
Caleb, Effingham, New Hampshire, USA
"he was a real-life Washington lobbyist, stained, it can be safely presumed, by some of the grime you have to wade through to do that job effectively".
Can it be safely presumed?? You have evidence that Thompson routinely favors the industry for which he once lobbied? You failed to present that evidence, coincidentally, making only the smearing implication. For a country that, because of your complete political castration by the liberal Left, is about to be totally overrun by Muslims with their anti-western hatred running amok, you write with amazing arrogance.
GB Bari, Linthicum, MD
As an American citizen whose family immigrate to America from England in 1750 I have quite a bit I would like to say to Gerard Baker but the character limits of *Your View doesn't allow me to respond to all the false statements and outright lies Baker writes. And, TimesOnline won't publish a letter to the editor e-mail address. I guess they get tired of all the complaints about people like Baker not telling the truth. TimesOnline and Baker should try to report the news and verify facts before writing falsehoods for a change instead of making up their own fairytail news articles. This entire article is full of garbage and trash about people Baker knows nothing about. It is obvious he doesn't bother himself about checking facts or he isn't aware that there is a device called a telephone that he can learn to use which can be used to verify facts before he prints untruths...
Al Barrs, Greenwood, USA / Florida
Guiliani, Thompson and Romney. Each has the credentials I am looking for to be our President:
1. Has the courage to continue fighting the War on Terror. 2. Keep us safe.
3. Fiscally conservative and won't raise taxes.
4. Can beat Hillary & Obama.
These men have not forgotten September 11th!
Grace N., Beverly Hills, CA USA
why do Americans write a novel when commenting
just state the facts its more fun stop boring us to death.
george william taylor, hull, uk
Can Ron Tuttle of Santa Cruz Bolivia add or do logic? "No republican will sit in the White House for the next ten years," he says. Well, logic states that George Bush, republican (or Dick Cheney in the event of Bush's death), will be President for almost two more years. Thus, there will be a republican in the White House for some of the next ten years. In the event that he was speaking of the period following Bush's departure, his argument still puzzles me. Presidential terms are four years each, not five, meaning a two-term democratic president would serve for eight years, not ten. I hate to sound like a nit-picker, but this somehow seems indicative of many arguments from the left: loose facts, loose logic.
C Larkins, San Clemente, USA
Fred Thompson is certainly poised to become the next Ronald Reagan. He is by far more of real conservative then any of the other conservatives currently in the race. As president he would certainly not respond as wimpishly as Bush when Senate Majority Leader Reid and House Speaker Pilosi wave the white flag of surrender before Al Queida and the Islamists. If America refuses to fight the terrorists the world is lost.
John, Toronto, Ontario
That which is missing from American politics is a gentleman. We have a surfeit of liars, and the damn lies that liars tell. We have got tired of false promises, and pretty faces. Fred Thompson, particularly if he brings along Condi Rice as VP, will assure Americas's next 12 to 16 years of responsible adult supervision. It would also serve to avoid the dual presidency of the Clintons, which was, then, and is now, just a bit too adult for all of us. If his cancer takes him out of office, then Condi stands on a perfect springboard, for a term or two of her own. My old boss, who knows Condi well, swears that she is a stone cold genius, actually capable of original thinking. Wouldn't that be a change, for a term or two. By that time, her VP, Jeb Bush will be ready, and he is like Condi, Republican to the bone.
Franklin Lomax, Alexandira, USA/Virginia
The republicans can postulate all the actors they want because any president for the republican part is not really running the country. There are a group of neoconservatives that have taken control (if they haven't been in control all these years) and really run things. Do you thing that George Bush with his intellectual capacity is really running the United States? For God's sake the man can't carry on a conversation at the level of a second year high school student; and anyone who says different is a stone cold liar. So put old Fred Thompson in the hot seat but I've got a news flash for you. No republican will sit in the White House for the next ten years, minimum. If they do the US will cease to exist as we know it within this generation.
Ron Tuttle, Santa Cruz , Bolivia
Considering that most Republicans, if they have a problem with the President, it's with his inability to communicate to the American people the conservative vision that we believe he has, it's only natural that this time around, we would want a good conservative who is also a good communicator. You can call that the Reagan model and dismiss the sentiment as chasing a Hollywood-created illusion, if you want, but you'd only be less than half right, if that.
BTW: Isn't "San Francisco, USA" a contradiction in terms? I've never heard of anybody who could speak for both at the same time. But, hey, e pluribus unum and all that...
Dave H, Culver City, California
I would hardly consider Fred Thompson, or even Law and Order, products of Hollywood. The New York television and cinema scene is refreshingly distinct from that of Southern California. It's too bad, though, that Jerry Orbach in not around to serve as VP.
Mac, Providence, RI, US
Just the rough, tough appearance of Fred Thompson is enough to scare the bejesus out of our enemies (and maybe some of our erstwhile allies, too). What few people (here in the states AND overseas) understand is that an American president that is "unpopular abroad" is a president that is likely to be working for and protecting American citizens FIRST - and is likely pandering to no foreign influences
Sharon Eide, Bridgeport, U.S.A. Washington
Mr. Wilson.................We have looked at the field that already announced their candidacy and we aren't impressed.They are nothing but moderates pretending to be Conservatives or RINO's.Thats why FDT sounds so appealing.As far as this article it had very little to do with comparing Mr. Thompson and Mr. Reagan and was basiclly useless.
D.D.Mao, Woodhaven, New York
An interesting view Mr. Baker, but I think the facts belie your presumption. It is true that Thompson's current exposure to the broader American public is as the Law and Order DA. But he was not a wallflower as a senator, and he is now hosting frequent radio spots and writing extensively in publications directed toward conservatives. That is the group you attribute as excited about him for his Imaginary Candidate status. But in my experience that same group is being re-introduced to the political side of Mr. Thomspon on some fairly weightly substantive matters, including Iraq, civil rights, gun control, & school choice. I agree that the general electorate is not widely aware of Mr. Thompson's specific positions. But I would suggest that the conservative side, which has some influence in selecting the party's nominee, is exposed to a much more substantive Fred Thomspon than you may be aware, and that is the group which you attribute as being energized about him.
Warm Regards
Jerry, Shelton, CT/USA
In my opinion, it is Fred Thompson's election to lose. When (not if....when) he announces his run for POTUS, he will need a dumptruck to handle all the donations that will flow to him from the Republican conservative base that are sitting on their collective wallets waiting for someone that they can support 100%. He will immediatley blanket the current field of Republican contenders in the polls, and will lay waste to any of the Democratic hopefuls in the debates.
PTParks, Seven Lakes, NC
An interesting take on Fred Thompson but you have your basic facts wrong. I''m from Tennessee and I even got to ride in his red pickup when he was running for the Senate. Fred Thompson is not really an actor. You'll notice that every part he plays is the same. They are all Fred Thompson; just with a different name. In truth, he was Arthur Branch long before he was "Arthur Branch". He was the prosecutor who stopped Tennessee's governor (a Democrat) from selling pardons. Then he played himself in the movie about the incident. From my standpoint he is less a fake than the politicians who will say or do anything to get elected. His biggest selling point to me is that he had a safe seat in the US Senate and walked away from it. He knows who he is without having to be attached to an elected office.
Dan Tankersley, Knoxville, TN
If he runs, I plan on voting for Fred Thompson and I think he will win. He has the ability to persuade citizens to agree with him. The current practice of other politicians isn't persuasion or leadership - it's, rather, an attempt to say what the majority of people want to hear. Restated, Thompson says "here's what we should do and why"; while other politicians say "here's what I think 51% of you want me to say". See last night's nonspecific answers to questions in the Democratic debate.
Dave L, Indianapolis, USA
I am a Tennessean, and I can tell you that all the hype about FT being "the real thing" is not hype at all. He is an accomplished, intelligent, principled individual, whom we who know him have been dreaming of putting on the national ticket since 1994. That is the year in which he was elected by a vast margin to a vacant US Senate seat: the one abandoned 2 years earlier by Al Gore.
David, Franklin, Tennessee
Fred Thompson is NOT regarded as anywhere near the caliber of Ronald Reagan, among US citizens - particularly conservative Americans. We were witness to the GREATNESS of President Reagan, and realize to this day we are the benefactors of his courage and vision. Senator Thompson, while a decent sort, is not in the same league as President Reagan.
Roz, Los Angeles, USA
Fred will win in a landslide over the Dems. All the Dems would do to defend the USA is follow in the footsteps of Mc Govern, Carter, Mondale, Dukakis, Impeached Willy, algore, and Hanoi Johnny; and refuse to do so.
It will be a landslide, but which Dem will get to play the role of Walter Mondale?
appman, Ventura, CA
I'm interested in Fred Thompson, but I am VERY interested in Tommy Thompson who is already running. I think Republicans should first look to those who have already announced their candidacy before they look to those who have not. Tommy Thompson was Secretary of Health and Human Services in the Bush early years (2001-2005). He has been governor of Wisconsin, a blue state, and he is a pro-life candidate with solutions worth examining on health care and Iraq. Republicans should take the debate coming up with an open mind. I think it will be a chance for a lot of these no-names like Tommy Thompson, Sam Brownback, and Mike Huckabee to become better known.
Jake Wilson, College Station, Texas
Mr. Baker's analysis is insightful and true. He has written an excellent piece that will hold weight through the U.S. presidential election.
Jim, Arlington, Virginia
Amen Ted, now if only American's had a little more of your attitude. Reid's comments and policy have been cheap and easy. It is time to see some courage and honor coming our Senate and American people the same way it has come from the White House, Military and the generation of WWII. Unfortunately we Americans have become a bit complacent and comfortable carrying the attitude that what we have we some how deserve and will always have.
Nathan Rutkowski, Columbus, Oh
"Unusual courage and authority, for a senator". Talk about damned by faint praise! Mr Reid's public statements might be 'courageous' when viewed from inside the Beltway, but undermining the executive during a war is also stupid and the worst type of short-term cynicism.
Ted Tedford, London, UK
California IS America's largest state in economic terms.
Frank Kirkham, Chippenham, England
Nigel, presumably Mr Baker was talkign about the largest state in the Union by population, which is California. Electorally speaking, landmass counts for rather less than how many votes a state can muster.
Alex, London, UK
With Ronald Reagan still fresh in mind as a President who far exceeded expectation, an acting career could become de rigeur in the aspiring presidential CV. The mannerisms and demeanour of credible leaders are, like all skills, best acquired through a methodology, so why not appoint a professional gestalt artiste to this important position?
With increasing involvement of media types in the presidential entourage for management of public relations scenarios, the blurring of fantasy and reality in the political package and the ownership of stars by their audience, perhaps the future of national Leaders is as a kind of avatar, with imagined control by the virtual game-player electorate. Perhaps, as always, real strings may remain to be pulled from the lobby off-stage.
dr venables preller, Warminster, UK
Gerard, get your facts straight. Reagan was governor of California (America's third largest state), not Alaska (America's largest state).
Nigel Roberts, San Francisco, USA
An intriguing view of Fred Thompson's role and its meaning, but I think you misfire on Senator Reid. He has acted with unusual courage and authority, for a senator. Like the new Speaker of the House he knows what is possible and does that much. Congressional action is never fast. As for the Obama enthusiasm, it will never carry through. He is too inexperienced. We Americans have a talent for falling back on tired choices. Remember the nomination of Hubert Humphrey?
Ernest Werner, Trumansburg, New York USA
There is a lot of dissatisfaction with the announced Republican contenders. None can claim to be conservative. Abortion, national defense and a tax environment that encourages growth are important issues.
Bill, Ocean City, Md USA
As an ex-Republican, "President George Bushs ineptitude and increasingly bunkered immobilism" does not make Americans yearn for something new, it makes us, especially those of a conservative bent, yearn for impeachment.
J. Fiennes, Denver, Colorado, USA