Gerard Baker
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Huckabee. It sounds like one of those American restaurant chains popular across the South, the kind of place where on All You Can Eat Tuesdays the patrons down buckets of barbecued ribs and fried chicken while sucking on 32-ounce tumblers of diet soda. Then again, it could be a character from a Mark Twain novel, or a predictably contrived name in the first line of one of those obscene limericks written by bored schoolboys. But President Huckabee, commander-in-chief, leader of the free world?
If — and it is an even larger conditional than usually applies in the fickle arena of political success — the current opinion polls are to be believed, the Huckabee Era is a possibility that the world ought to be starting to contemplate seriously. In the unending soap opera of the 2008 US presidential election campaign, Mike Huckabee is the star of the latest episode.
The former Governor of Arkansas — there’s a presidential pedigree of recent vintage for you — has been an outsider for most of the race for the Republican nomination. But in the space of a month he has jumped from fifth in the national opinion polls to a tie for first place with Rudolph Giuliani, the former Mayor of New York. Much more importantly, he seems to have established a large lead in Iowa, the state that votes first on January 3.
In case you were inclined to think, by the way, that it’s just supercilious Englishmen who think Huckabee is an odd sort of name for a president, it was the Texan Dan Bartlett, George Bush’s former communications chief, who said a few months ago that Mr Huckabee could not be taken seriously as presidential material because of his name. That is shaping up to be about as bankable as many other Bush Administration judgments.
The current surge — the Huckaboom as it has inevitably been dubbed — is due to a number of factors. Perhaps the most obvious is religion. Mr Huckabee is a Baptist preacher and comes closer than any of the Republicans to meeting the confessional requirements of Christian evangelical orthodoxy. Certainly, set against the other candidates — a Mormon, a multiply married Catholic and a collection of milquetoast Protestants — he fits the bill.
And yet he is not, to be fair, straight out of central casting’s collection of fire-breathing televangelists. He is very much a representative of a modern breed of conservative Christian — anti-abortion and against gay marriage, certainly, but with a much broader horizon. He talks in almost social democratic terms about inequality. When Governor, he raised taxes to fund programmes for the poor and was decidedly soft on illegal immigrants, giving them scholarships for higher education. He is likeable, funny and self-deprecating.
The second factor behind his sudden rise is the saliency of domestic issues in the election. One of the most confident predictions all the pundits made about this election was that it would turn on foreign policy. But with the surge in Iraq continuing to take the war out of the headlines, and with last week’s official intelligence report taking Iran out of the crosshairs, suddenly the world outside is a non-issue. Instead, the hot topics are the economy, health- care and immigration. This is helping the domestically focused candidates with no foreign policy experience such as Mr Huckabee, and on the Democratic side, Barack Obama.
The third factor is the most transitory for Mr Huckabee and it could be — problematically for him — the most important. There’s a desultory quality to the way Republican voters are eyeing their options. A poll for The New York Times this week found that not a single one of the eight main candidates had favourable ratings above 50 per cent. The Republican field resembles a kind of faded carousel, where each gaudy horse gets a brief moment in the sun before rotating off into the shadows. First it was John McCain, then Mr Giuliani, then Mitt Romney, then Fred Thompson. Now it’s Mr Huckabee. Wait a few weeks and it could be Mr Romney again.
The particular problem for the new front-runner is this. Each candidate in succession has been propelled into the glare by a lack of enthusiasm for the others. But when the light shines harshly on his own candidacy, it shows up some of the rust and wear.
Now Mr Huckabee is starting to get some unflattering attention. It was discovered this week that he made some unfortunate remarks about “isolating” Aids patients in the early 1990s. He authorised the release from prison of a rapist who went on to commit murder. Before the Christmas decorations are down, the Huckaboom may well have turned into a Huckabust.
This impatience with the party’s would-be leaders reflects the fracturing, if not the splintering, of the great Republican movement. As has often been observed, the Republicans are a vast unwieldy coalition: religious conservatives, libertarians, pro-business groups, free-market ideologues, foreign policy hawks, America-first nativist isolationists, neoconservative idealists.
Sometimes when the political weather demands it — the economic crisis that produced Ronald Reagan; the post-9/11 world that cemented the Bush presidency — some overarching interest unites these groups around a candidacy. At other times, they fall apart. There’s no reason now why a foreign policy hawk should make common cause with a religious conservative. Supporters of free trade are at odds with anti-immigration nativists. Libertarians don’t trust the business lobby.
Circumstances have helped to bring about this disarray. But so too have eight years of a Bush Administration that has redefined competence downwards and a party that grew corrupt and complacent as it controlled Congress. All this might suggest that, with or without a Huckaboom, the Republicans don’t stand a chance in any case next year.
But that assumes the Democrats will nominate an unthreatening, run-of-the-mill candidate who can sail unmolested to victory. Instead they are going to choose either a clever woman who is despised by half the country, or an appealing young black man, who, if elected, would have the least relevant experience of any president in the history of the country.
The Republicans only look dead.

Gerard Baker is United States Editor and an Assistant Editor of The Times. He joined in 2004 from the Financial Times, where he had spent over ten years as Tokyo correspondent and Washington Bureau Chief. His weekly oped column appears on Fridays
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Ron Paul is the Republican candidate that I believe will be most popular in the New Year, he is a refreshing change...RON PAUL !!!
James, London, England
Obama would "have the least relevant experience of any president in the history of the country" ?????
Are you serious? I'm sure you mistakenly referenced the wrong person.....W circa 2000, with great certainty, surely was the least experienced, relevant or otherwise, in the entire US history.
EP New York City
Edward, New York, NY USA
What are you going to do when President Huckabee wins? Has Gerard, after the 174th Presidential Election in a row where the Christian candidate wins, still not figured out the pattern? I wish I could see your face election night. Probably look a lot like that last few elections. Dumbfounded.
Jim, San Jose, CA, USA
I just don't see Huckabee winning the nomination. I don't think the evangelicals, even if he really is their man, have that kind of clout. They can obstruct and make a lot of noise, but they can't engineer a nomination.
If the Republicans have any sense, and I think they do, they'll nominate either Romney or McCain.
gb, Austin, USA
Vote American This Year!
Vote MITT Romney!
dan, safford, az
Baker is correct. While Hillary Clinton is a fatally flawed candidate, Obama is also extremely over-rated among the pundit class and Democratic primary voters.
Obama's experience is virtually non-existant. His educational background?? If that was a qualification, then millions of lawyers around the country would be qualified for the presidency.
Illinois Assembly? "Community Activist"??? Don't make me laugh. He won the Illinois Senate race by default (his opponent was the crazy black perennial candidate Alan Keyes, who still managed to get a 1/4 of the vote). Once he got in the senate, he has been a non-effective senator by most objective accounts.
Obama might be an interest idea among the committed liberals or urban elite in Des Moines or Chicago, but he is not likely to fare well among "regular folks" in the Heartland. Mark my words.
Kevin, Jefferson City, Missouri
To this lifelong Democrat, it looks like three things have brought H this far. First, as far as evangelical Christians are concerned, he's the real deal. Second, when the economy is worrying a lot of Republicans outside the country club , he's the kind of Christian who remembers that help for the poor and unfortunate is an important a part of the faith. Third, he's as graceful and quick on his feet as any American politician since Jack Kennedy. That's gotten him sympathetic media from people who don't like his politics or his religion.
When Romney criticized him on giving reduced tuition to the children of illegal aliens, Huckabee responded, "I guess Romeny doesn't want them to get an education so they can keep working in his yard." That's quick, it expresses an American faith in upward mobility, and it implies that Romney is mean spirited and hypocritical.
We'll see if he can stand the spotlight, but he's been good copy so far.
Jack Cerf, Newark, New Jersey, USA
There really aren't anti-immigrant nativists involved as part of the discussion on illegal immigration, that is a myth spread by the media an pro illegal immigration groups.
Two factors contributing to Huckabee's rise in the polls are his stated position on illegal immigration, which does not agree with his historical actions on illegal immigration, and his backing by some of the religious groups associated with the religious right.
His historical actions on illegal immigration will hurt him as time goes on whether he wins the primary or not. A large majority of voters in the United States are against benefits for illegal immigrants, whille at the same time wanting to welcome legal immigrants.
There are those that say we should increase legal immigration, especially from those nations that the largest number of illegal immigrants come from, and make the illegal immigrants legal. The problem with this thinking is we have tried this before. Further many of those here illegally do not respect or nations laws, us, or our nation.
An example, Jorge Bustamante (Mexico) , the United Nationsâ Special Rapporteur on the human rights of migrants and a sociology professor at the University of Notre Dame, this week called Republican Party policies on immigration âimmoral.â Writing in the Mexico City daily Reforma, Bustamante said the Republican candidates share a in immigration stance that âlacks even the most minimum recognition of the demand for the Mexican migrant labor.â
So here we have a Mexican national, and UN official, attempting to influence the elections in the US. The Republican candidates are simply saying that they support immigration law enforcement. Jorge Bustamante, the United Nationsâ Special Rapporteur on the human rights of migrants, apparently views that as illegal. I'd personally like to know why specifically he views the United States immigration laws illegal. The U.S. has more legal immigration then any other industrialized nation. The U.S. also has the fastest growing population of any industrialized nation, because of immigration policies. The nation with the largest number of immigrants coming to this country is Mexico. This isn't about immigrants it is about illegal immigration. Bustamante, like many, believe the U.S. has no right to enforce immigration law.
Jorge Bustamante also instigated the use of dual citizenship in Mexico to provide a way for dual citizen Mexican/U.S. citizens to influence the vote in the U.S. to benefit Mexico.
In fact many dual national citizens proudly state that Mexico is their country, it comes first. Their citizenship often comes by birth in the U.S. according to a Constitutional amendment meant to give blacks a right to vote and citizenship long ago. Many of these birth right dual citizens, are born to parents that are illegally in the U.S.
U.S. citizens have every right to defend their nation against this type of blantant interference.
win brown, Rantoul, US/ IL
There really aren't anti-immigrant nativists involved as part of the discussion on illegal immigration, that is a myth spread by the media an pro illegal immigration groups.
Two factors contributing to Huckabee's rise in the polls are his stated position on illegal immigration, which does not agree with his historical actions on illegal immigration, and his backing by some of the religious groups associated with the religious right.
His historical actions on illegal immigration will hurt him as time goes on whether he wins the primary or not. A large majority of voters in the United States are against benefits for illegal immigrants, whille at the same time wanting to welcome legal immigrants.
There are those that say we should increase legal immigration, especially from those nations that the largest number of illegal immigrants come from, and make the illegal immigrants legal. The problem with this thinking is we have tried this before. Further many of those here illegally do not respect or nations laws, us, or our nation.
An example, Jorge Bustamante (Mexico) , the United Nationsâ Special Rapporteur on the human rights of migrants and a sociology professor at the University of Notre Dame, this week called Republican Party policies on immigration âimmoral.â Writing in the Mexico City daily Reforma, Bustamante said the Republican candidates share a in immigration stance that âlacks even the most minimum recognition of the demand for the Mexican migrant labor.â
So here we have a Mexican national, and UN official, attempting to influence the elections in the US. The Republican candidates are simply saying that they support immigration law enforcement. Jorge Bustamante, the United Nationsâ Special Rapporteur on the human rights of migrants, apparently views that as illegal. I'd personally like to know why specifically he views the United States immigration laws illegal. The U.S. has more legal immigration then any other industrialized nation. The U.S. also has the fastest growing population of any industrialized nation, because of immigration policies. The nation with the largest number of immigrants coming to this country is Mexico. This isn't about immigrants it is about illegal immigration. Bustamante, like many, believe the U.S. has no right to enforce immigration law.
Jorge Bustamante also instigated the use of dual citizenship in Mexico to provide a way for dual citizen Mexican/U.S. citizens to influence the vote in the U.S. to benefit Mexico.
In fact many dual national citizens proudly state that Mexico is their country, it comes first. Their citizenship often comes by birth in the U.S. according to a Constitutional amendment meant to give blacks a right to vote and citizenship long ago. Many of these birth right dual citizens, are born to parents that are illegally in the U.S.
U.S. citizens have every right to defend their nation against this type of blantant interference.
win brown, rantoul, US/IL
Very sound observations on the current Republican dilemma. One request, if I may: your use of the term "nativist." It implies that one is wrong or unenlightend for the simple reason of not wishing one's nation to be overrun by the poor and uneducated of the third world.
Being anti-immigration or "nativist" does not make one a racist or even isolationist. Indeed, it shows one to be aware of the changing demography of the West. Truly, how does it benefit us to allow unfettered immigration to our nations? Higher taxes, more entitlement programs and bureaucracy, more foreign languages, and more disease and crime. No thank you.
Erik, Sacramento, CA, USA
This Huckaboom will turn into a Huckabust once true Republicans realize that he's really a social liberal! He's been soft on illegals aliens giving them instate tuition and scholarships, pardoned 1033 criminals (12 murderers, one who was a sadistic rapist who killed a woman after Huckabee released him!), and raised taxes more than Bill Clinton did while Gov. or Arkansas! Let the record speak for itself. This man also knows NOTHING about foreign policy. People, wake up! We need an experienced leader who can make tough decisions and turn this country around and that man is MITT ROMNEY! Check out his website and video's. The man always answers questions directly and gets things done. He's a teambuilder and has proven himself at the Olympics which were a disaster before he turned it around, in the private sector starting venture capital company Bain in 1984, helping small companies to go national (Staples is one), and as governor of Mass. He did an excellent job and left a surplus!
April , Bonita Springs , FL
To be fair to Obama, he has a solid background in the educational side of government, having gotten degrees in it at Harvard and Columbia, for example. On top of that, he has a background as a party and community organizer, with a solid set of years of service in his state government. He's as well qualified as Abraham Lincoln, for example, was qualified, and he could be a boon to the Democratic Party by helping them win elections from the White House while bringing them together on votes in Congress.
Brett, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
My personal vision of an ideal President would be someone who could combine the commitment to social values of conservatives (real conservatives, not the big-business neocon kind who have dominated the Bush White House) with the focus on economic justice of the liberals. Of the current candidates, Mike Huckabee best combines those ideals.
What the electorate increasingly wants, though, seems to be a civil libertarian who has little use for traditional values and has no problem with leaving millions of people in poverty to save on taxes. Rudolph Giuliani will probably be their logical choice. I'd rather either Clinton or Obama won instead.
D.L. Anderson, Crossett, AR/U.S.A.