There are no second acts in American lives, wrote F. Scott Fitzgerald. Tomorrow the voters of South Carolina will have a chance to prove him wrong.
The Democratic primary contest continues to absorb most of the media attention around the world as Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama conduct an oddly content-free, identity-politics-heavy, race-versus-gender fight. But the race on the Republican side is simply bewildering. Three different primaries so far and we have had three different winners. Mike Huckabee in Iowa; John McCain in New Hampshire and Mitt Romney in Michigan. Tomorrow's South Carolina primary should start to sort things out. Unless Fred Thompson pulls off a shocker, it will hand a second victory to one of the three front-runners.
The man with most at stake, the man hoping to take the stage for an improbable second act, is John McCain. Eight years ago the voters of South Carolina seemed to end his presidential aspirations. Then, as today, the Arizona senator had won New Hampshire. He burst into the state with high hopes for another upset win over the front-runner George W. Bush, but Mr Bush was waiting for him with a campaign soaked in poisonous accusation and innuendo.
Tomorrow a win for Mr McCain would be the most significant result of the primary campaign so far. It would demonstrate a hitherto questioned ability to appeal to Southerners and conservatives. Above all, the symbolism of triumphing on the very turf where he fell eight years ago will be electrifying. If he loses he is probably toast.
Polls suggest that Mr McCain is by some way the most popular Republican with ordinary voters. For a party as battered as the Republicans, this is remarkable. Mr McCain is fervently for the Iraq war, against big government and anti-abortion. Yet a McCain victory would send much of the Republican party into a mood of suicidal depression. The solid conservative base of the party despise him with a vengeance that is so pervasive it may even be a psychosis - McCain Derangement Syndrome.
Across the country, the right wing of the party is in a panic about the former Vietnam War hero. Columnists and conservative pundits are in a lather about his candidacy. Rush Limbaugh, the talk-show host who most neatly captures the views of millions of conservatives, begged his listeners not to vote for Mr McCain this week.
Policy differences don't really explain the phenomenon. Conservatives certainly don't like some of the things Mr McCain believes in - campaign finance reform or last year's failed attempt at immigration reform that would have granted a kind of amnesty to millions of illegal aliens. But these hardly amount to a charge sheet that would justify their loathing.
I sense that the syndrome says something about what has gone so badly wrong with the conservative movement in the past ten years. It has become so intolerant and exclusive that once orthodox views are now regarded as heresy; while views once merely narrow and eccentric are now prerequisites for membership.
One of Mr McCain's biggest sins is to have opposed tax cuts in the early years of the Bush presidency because there was no effort to cut spending to match them. This runs counter to the new orthodoxy on the Right that believes tax cutting is a kind of alchemy - cut taxes anywhere at any time and you will always and everywhere produce increases in government revenues. There is not the slightest evidence for this, but no matter. You must believe.
Mr McCain is unacceptable also because he has insufficiently orthodox views on human rights. Last week a writer in the National Review said that Mr McCain was not a conservative because he opposes torture of terrorist suspects. Quite how the party of Lincoln and Eisenhower came to erect a “Torturers Only” sign at its gate will be a matter for historians.
The proof of the power of McCain Derangement Syndrome is that its sufferers have flocked in their madness to Mitt Romney as the only decent conservative alternative. Mr Romney, an immaculately coiffed and coutured 60-year old with a beguiling smile and a dreamy look, is a kind of Dorian Gray figure. But somewhere in an attic there must be a portrait of him that reflects the intellectual contortions, moral compromise and shameless dishonesty that has characterised his bid for the presidency.
Until a year or two ago Mr Romney held a range of beliefs - on abortion and gay marriage, for example, that were well to the left of anything Mr McCain has ever said.
Having campaigned elsewhere extolling the virtues of free markets, this week he won the Michigan primary with a nakedly cynical call for government to spend billions of dollars rescuing the jobs of car industry workers that are threatened by foreign competition. The McCain haters didn't mind, as long as he beat the Republican antichrist.
We have seen where this narrow intolerance can lead Republicans and America. Eight years ago the voters of South Carolina, in their wisdom, rescued the ailing candidacy of George W. Bush. They were animated by an earlier version of McCain Derangement Syndrome, stoked by one of the most unpleasant exercises in personal vilification to be mounted in a presidential contest. With the benefit of hindsight, they - and we - may wonder whether they did the world a service that day.
Tomorrow they get a rare second chance, with the world watching, to get it right.
Where is Barry Goldwater when you really need him????
Ken Anderson, Rio Rancho, New Mexico
This column is absolutely right. Absolutely. While I personally prefer Huckabee to McCain, for a number of reasons, they both fall into the Limbaugh's persona-non-grata category. It has been frustrating to me to hear the "neo-right" proclaim incessantly about the betrayal of Reagan's legacy.
The fact is they have co-opted that legacy to justify the zealous fanatacism this article describes. To the conservatives of that time, tax cuts were simply a tool to be used to get the country moving again and on the right track. I was one of them, and I remember. Damn Limbaugh and his ilk for trying to steal that legacy for their own purposes.
Tom Scaramastra, Greensboro , NC USA
J Sain,
I don't think that Romney is being condemned simply for changing his views. He is being condemned for changing his views in a short period of time, which coincides with with a need to gain votes from people who previously would not have voted for him.
I'm sure that there are many other people who have changed their mind on abortion - only an ignorant or arrogant man believes the same at 60 as at 16.
Toby, London,
The Republican candidate who can appeal to the Democrats is the one who promises to bring the troops home, abolish the police state and end the war on drugs.
Phil, Philadelphia, PA USA
Democrats want Senator McCain to be the Republican Nominee because they know he will be easy to beat in November.
Don, Dublin , GA
From a former liberal Dem, who changed her mind at 28 to become a conservative first and foremost, and then a Republican, I have to say that "derangement" is hardly an accurate description of people who simply want to vote for a truly conservative person. McCain is not conservative, except regarding the war in Iraq. He is, as another person put it, "anti-free speech, anti-legal only immigration" and anti-tax cuts. I want my taxes cut. I want my free speech rights. I want illegal immigration stopped without amnesty. The true "derangement" would be for me, a conservative, to vote for a liberal like McCain. I think the author is out of touch. And wrong.
Stephanie Heringer, Fall River Mills, USA/CA
Isnt this far more like the conservatives at the start of their wilderness years? a madness that only now are they starting to slough off?
Elwin parsley, london , UK
My gosh! Why are you panning Romney for changing his views on abortion? Personally, I was pro-choice at one time and at one point in my life became anti-abortion. Does this mean I am not to be trusted or phony?
I'm sure there are many others who've switched positions on this issue.
J Sain, West New York, NJ, USA
McCain is the greatest danger to the Democrats come election time... I feel that he is the only candidate among the Republicans that can win the crossover vote ... especially if Clinton wins the Democratic nomination... she divides the country as much as Bush does...
It is time that our Nation votes for someone that brings our COUNTRY (that is one word... for one nation... not a divided landmass) together.
I would be happy with either Obama or McCain... and I am a life long Democrat who felt that the Republicans should never return to power.
McCain has shown that he would do what is best for our country not just for some backroom old boys club.
Obama has shown vision to see the country move forward together... he must begin to show his policy strength... but I, as many Americans do, BELIEVE in HIM...
wayne, SYR,
Senator McCain's strong suit is national defense. He would make a better Secretary of Defense or National Security Advisor, not President. He has serious judgment shortcomings. He's been on the "wrong side" of too many important issues, like immigration, campaign finance reform, and tax cuts.
Huckabee is not experienced in the private sector and has no strong record as a crisis manager like Romney. Romney is best prepared to deal with looming economy troubles, national and inter-national.
David, Redlands, California, USA
McCain spent years poking conservatives in the eye. I don't find it strange at all that conservatives - SURPRISE! - don't want to see somebody win that isn't a conservative. The American leftist mainstream media only want McCain to win because they think Monica Lewinsky's ex-boyfriend's wife can handily beat him. No, thank you. McCain will falter in the South. We don't want an anti-free speech, anti-legal only immigration, pro-Ted Kennedy liberal, thought about switching parties after 2000, Keating-five S&L scandal member for our candidate. He might be a stand up American for his time at the Hanoi Hilton, but that doesn't grant him the right to betray my core beliefs as President.
Timothy Delasandro, College Station, TX, USA
I don't like McCain's stance on immigration otherwise I would vote for him.
john, lodi, california
I agree with this column, but I believe there are quite a few conservatives, like myself, who do in fact support John McCain.
Like you, I was distressed when some National Review writers seemed to endorse torture as a prerequisite for membership in the club. It is all very well to speculate on hypothetical situations involving ticking nuclear time bombs in New York but quite another to advocate torture as a legitimate, normal tool in the fight against terrorism. This is one reason I support John McCain. He would help the United States recover its sense of decency.
The other is that I supported the war in Iraq and still do. I believe McCain has been correct all along on this issue and would ensure a reasonably satisfactory conclusion to this situation.
One other point is that George Bush has hardly met many of the standards that the "true believers" say they require in a candidate. McCain - even by their standards - is more conservative than Bush.
J Willock, Detroit, Michigan/USA
One clarification. Mitt Romney won the Wyoming county convention on January 5 with 67% of the vote. So, actually, one Republican has already won two contests. Before you simply pooh-pooh Wyoming, it is important to note that Romney won one more delegate there than John McCain won in New Hampshire.
MIke G., Philadelphia, United States
Social conservatives in the Republican Party have been betrayed since Reagan left office. McCain has the clearest record of disdain for social conservatives that has ever existed. Quite frankly, he views social conservatives as Rednecks. So, tell me again, why should I vote for him?
James Mayhall, Lakeland, Florida
Thank you once again. There is so much spin control nowasays that I often feel like Winston Smith (of the novel 1984) when he began to doubt the evidence of his own eyes and memory. You remind me, as always, that what I think I have just read and remembered is indeed what has been previously reported. Thanks for injection of common sense.
Charles Oltorf, Austin, Texas, USA
Gerard Baker accurately sums up the depression and agony among Republicans. He failed to mention one oddity that would support his overall argument: Why, oh why, do evangelical leaders endorse Giuliani while they demonize McCain? At least McCain is on the "right" side of social issues, which is more than can be said for Giuliani. At this point, I've given up hope of a GOP victory, and I'm hoping for Hillary to win -- if we must have a Democratic president, at least she will enter office hobbled by all her liabilities and baggage. (I'm a US citizen and registered Republican living in Canada.)
MarcM, Saskatoon, Canada
Why do you continue to mislead your British readers? While I realize that socialism is the prevailing system in Britain and Europe, we don't subscribe to it. The Democrats have been trying to move us in that direction for nearly 40 years. They haven't quite managed that yet, but McCain has thrown in with them too often to suit Conservatives. It's that simple. If you think the Republican's are out of the running this year,you need to take a look at Hillary's negatives. While you Brits think the clintons' are wonderful, Americans are ready for the Bush's and Clinton's to leave the national stage. We have had ENOUGH!!!!!!!
P.Zahn, Seattle, Wa. USA
Your article is exceptionally humorous because of your portrayal of Republicans as so agitated and perturbed. You should acquaint yourself with more regular Republicans. Actually I and others I know are pretty happy with the process. We are working out a choice. McCain appears to be the liberal's favorite Republican, they would never vote for him though. He is respected for his service and for what he terribly suffered. The range of his expressed important beliefs and issues appears to conservatives to be erratic and incoherent. I realize this coherence is not important to liberals (but, in fact, valued). As a personal prejudice, I think we Republicans are a bit more measured in our selection process which makes me proud. Nice try in trying to understand the more conservative mindset.
Milan, Redondo Beach, California
Mr. Baker:
I love your writing. I always find you witty and entertaining even when I disagree with you. McCain is acceptable to me and I am a conservative Republican. But I DO prefer Romney because I think he is conservative enough on the important issues-terrorism, Iran, illegal immigration, and the economy. He isn't quite the Dorian Gray figure you make him out to be. Consider this: he was in reality much more conservative than he appeared when he ran for the governorship of Massachusetts. Not the reverse. I have no problem with him moderating his views to win that office. After all, it's the most liberal state in the nation.
Paula, Marietta, USA
Who cares!!!
Mr. Baker, you are a wonderful writer delivering intelligent thoughts with an elegant turn of phrase. But good lord, can't you turn your evident talents elsewhere? The US is now a washed up country lacking any sense of discipline and devoid of its former moral character. Furthermore, it's boring and depressing.
I do wish that I could enjoy your writing while learning about other more interesting subjects
Philip, Victoria, Canada
I am a staunch conservative Republican(since 1980) and I support John McCain. I don't agree with McCain on every issue(Guanatanamo and immigration). However, I agree with him on far more issues than I do with the socialist Democrats. John McCain is pro-death penalty, pro-life, and pro-gun rights. He also opposes gay marriage, gays in the military, and civil unions. He supports the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. He was among the first to support the surge(take the political restrictions off American troops and allow them to fight to win). In 2000, McCain opposed Bush's tax cuts because he thought his tax cut plan was better. Yes, he also had a tax cut plan! In the current campaign, he is calling for cutting the corporate tax rate from 35% to 25%. He has battled earmarks and spending. In fact, he is insisting that the current stimulus package contain no spending increases. He is a staunch deficit hawk. Also, I think that his brand of judges would be far better than Clinton or Obama.
Ken, Vernon, USA
The Republicans for the most part, if not all, are no damn good. They're "the party for the wealthy and corporate elite." If you're an average, middle-class or poor-class American, then the only time you're important to Republicans is when they're out campaigning and want your vote. Once you give them that valuable vote, if they get elected or re-elected, they turn around and stab you in the back. While once again rewarding their wealthy buddies $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ in tax cuts, tax cuts for the rich, while stiffing the American middle-class and poor-class.
We can only hope and pray the Democrats win.
J. S. C., Monmouth, Maine, USA
The author may be British, but he is "spot on" about what is going on here.
Stephen Bonin, Duluth, MN, USA
No evidence that cutting taxes increases federal revenues??? Where the hell have you been? Start with JFK and read forward - every time it has been done - EVERY TIME - the treasury is flooded with new revenues. That comment sounds like something John Edwards would say....jeesh!!!
Mike Terry, New Ellenton, SC
Alvin from Orlando, do tell: should we study Romney's views as Governor of Massachusetts (not so far from Hillary & Obama, esp on social issues), or the new, improved (well, for conservatives) Mitt?
Eric, WILLIAMSBURG, VA
McCain has not only gone against Republican policies, but he's seemed to relish the opportunity to do so. Still, while six months ago I said I'd never vote for McCain, I'm liking him more and more. His continued willingness to stake out unpopular positions shows that he has more integrity than the rest of them. I like McCain on budget restraint. I trust him on supreme court appointments, and I believe he's finally come to understand that whether or not we allow another amnesty for illegal aliens (as I believe we'll have to), job #1 is to truly secure the US/Mexico border in order to insure that immigration will take place only within the structure of law and with the democratic approval of the US citizenry.
Dan, Minneapolis, USA
Mr. Baker, I agree with everything you wrote, except for your dishonest characterization that McCain opposes "torture."
McCain opposes waterboarding, but waterboarding isn't "torture."
Joe Martinez, Chicago, IL
McCain and Huckabee are definitely the favorite of the liberal media and democrats in general. Anyone jwho takes an honest look at the education, background, values and accomplishments of all the candidates, the best choice is obviously Romney. The reason the left is so opposed to him is that they understand that he is a threat--plain and simple. Study the issues, study the candidates, remember what conservative principles are and the choice becomes easy.
Alvin, Orlando, USA
As an Arizona resident, I will not vote for McCain. He has blown is own horn and forgotten about his constituents and what they have wanted. Romney and Huckabee are toting their religions, Guiliani is riding on the coat tails of the 911 victims, and Thompson (whom I really liked) has become nothing more than a Washington has-been. It is time to really look at Ron Paul! I don't agre with everything he says, but I think his ideals are the best for this nation.
Lori B, Sierra Vista,
Nevada has there say on the same day, and it awards 30% more delegates, no one is talking about the fact that Romney has a double digit lead and will win big, where as the winner in S.C. will be by a very small margin and will split the delegates three or four ways.
Richard Halter, Live Oak, CA
I think you get it wrong when ;you dismiss the idea that favoring the opening our borders to millions of imigrants carrying Mexican flags "is not worth loathing." You ought to be in some of our communities and see the changes that the flood has already brought.
I cannot conceive of voting for any of the Democratic candidates, especially Hillary Clinton. At the same time it is hard to think of voting for John McClain, knowing that he has no respect for our citizens. Realistly, we are not going to send 12 or 20 or 30 [or whatever it actually is] million Mexicans back to Mexico, but we must not, cannot, cannot think about telling the other 100,000,000 that if they can just get up here we will give them a free pass to all be benefits that we have worked for 200 yrs to earn. Seal the border, require employers to verify Social Security numbers thru. Baltimore before hiring them, and do away with "Push one for English" on telephone messages. THEN find some way for those here to stay
James V. Delk, Whitwell, TN, USA
This was a very poorly-researched article. If you look at Mitt Romney's RECORD (which is public, I might add), you will find that as Governor of Massachusetts, he was just as conservative as he is today. Twelve years ago (not one or two), he supported abortion rights, but he learned from his experiences and had a change of heart. As Governor, he never did anything to support abortion. Since when was it a bad thing to learn from your mistakes?
Garrett, Provo,
Excellent article that sizes up Phony Romney to a tee. The right wing Republicans are so narrow minded that they are destined to be doomed. American Hero John McCain will be TRIUMPHANT!
Kate , New York City,
Why are you Brits not pushing for Ron Paul? I know. You realize that McCain is the Internet regulation proponent in the Senate who is working with the NOW to force men to be background checked before saying hello to women online (IMBRA law).
Jim Peterson, Vantaa, Finland
I don't support McCain, but the idea that he is outside the mainstream of conservatism is absurd.
Bruce Bartlett, Great Falls, Virginia, USA
WOW. What ever happened to media objectivity? We understand you like McCain, but to accuse people of mental illness simply because they disagree with you is quite appalling; especially when this nation has graciously accepted you as a foreign journalist. Please show some respect, friend.
Regards
Haile Mohawe, Cleveland, USA
The U.S.A. Republican Party is tearing itself apart these days, with its possible candidates becoming more aggressive and strident in their various "holier than thou" contests concerning abortion, immigration, stem cell research, Iraq, taxes, education, health care, and so on. As someone who is appalled at what the Bush administration and its supporters have done to my country since 2000, I rejoice in the prospect that the next administration will not be Republican.
Mark In Irvine, Irvine, California
Would you rather have Clinton or McCain? Who do you want appointing the next 2-3 Supremes? Whose foreign policy do you prefer? Whose character do you trust? Boiling down all internecine strife, the choice is between these two. Forget Fred.Not happening. Likewise Mitt,Rudy or Mike. Remember the last 2 elections? Clinton/Obama or Obama/Edwards will stomp anyone who can't pull in the independents. A little pragmatism, please.
ERIN E. WRIGHT, NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE; USA
There is no dispute that McCain is not a conservative and drives many conservative Republicans crazy. That is precisely his strength in a national election -- unless conservatives are so petulant that they would rather sit home and pout than do anything to stop the preciptious lurch toward socialism Hilarobama will initiate. Only McCain can draw the independents needed to win in this uphill year because he's seen by them as not being beholden to the Powers That Be on the Right.
But McCain winning SC would probably not prove anything about his ability to appeal to conservatives. There are three conservatives in the race (if you count the Plastic Man), enough to split the majority conservative vote and leave enough independents and moderates to allow McCain to eke out a plurality.
A Republican has a chance only because the Dems are trying to outflank each other to the left and the national electorate has never demonstrated a liking for unabashed liberals.
Dave H, Culver City, California
Once again, Europeans just don't get it. Conservatives don't hate McCain, they are disgusted with him for his positions. McCain was 100% pro illegal immigration and pro-amnesty. He also blocked conservative judges to be on the bench. He has more in common with Ted Kennedy, than with Republicans. Also, the media might be obsessed with covering Obama and Clinton. Trust me, the public is not. Mrs. Clinton is one of the most devision figures ever to run for the presidency. Recently in Michigan Democrats came out in big numbers just to vote again her as "none of the above." Just because Hillary believes in Euro-socialism, doesn't mean the rest of us do.
Kevin, North Brunswick, NJ, USA
You get it exactly right. McCain is a true American hero who is not afraid to take an unpopular position. Mitt Romney will say anything to get elected. I doubt Ronald Reagan (who signed an abortion bill as Governor of California and at times raised taxes as Governor) could be nominated.
Alan, Philadelphia, PA
McCain is NOT a conservative. He is a liberal flying false colors. The good people of South Carolina knew that in 2000, they know that in 2008. The question is, will it matter this time? Since the ONLY Conservative candidate running is Senator Fred, it might not matter. The Liberal media has rigged the election so that both paties will run a liberal candidate. I call it the "heads we win , tails you lose" plan. I sort of reminds me of how the Iranians select a President, with a self styled elite pre-sorting the election so there is no chance of getting a president they don't approve of. We will see if that works. Regardless, there will be blowback.
john Samford, Mamphis,
The usual exaggerated hype about American politics. No Republican here is rabidly anti-McCain. Republicans oppose McCain because they understand he would be a weak nominee because of his sponsorship of the latest amnesty proposal. This is an issue Europeans continue to have a baffling ignorance of in regard to its volatility in American politics. Because of McCain’s sponsorship of one of the prominent amnesty proposals he will fade out at some point in the primary process. That could happen in South Carolina. It will definitely happen later in the primary process in those states most affected by illegal immigration.
davelniraq, Katy, Texas
-- There are also a few of us over here who consider ourselves to be conservative in the older mold - smaller government, stable currency, mind your own business and personal responsiblitity. We prefer Ron Paul...
Bruce in Maryland
bruce hilton, millersville, Maryland / usa
President Bush has not ordained a successor to the throne of President and this means that the GOP is in the process of reworking it structures and ideology to enable the party to reaasert ideologal hegemony in US politics.
McCain's base is in the US military establishment and military veterans and his maverick role is a mechanism to draw Independent voters into the GOP political base.
Huckabee is rallying the evangelical right to become his political base and then try to extend the base into other domains.
Romney's base is the Republican economic conservatives and he is extending his base.
It is obvious that Gerard is unhappy that people view candidates other than McCain as worthy candidates but Gerard needs to explain to us why it is deranged to do so?
How deranged are the Republicans is a circular argument as it does not establish the premise that the Republicans are in fact deranged. It assumes they are deranged and the only question is the degree of derangement.
Gregory Hessenauer, Tunbridge Wells, Kent
"Mr McCain believes in ... last year's failed attempt at immigration reform that would have granted a kind of amnesty to millions of illegal aliens."
It's not amnesty, nor even "a kind of amnesty", unless you want to kind of adopt Romney's nonsensical way of talking about it.
From the NY Times editorial page:
"Mr. Romney (who in the distant past — 2005 — called the McCain bill “reasonableâ€) stumbled further on a talk show, “This Week with George Stephanopoulos,†the next day. He struggled over whether the McCain bill could even be called “amnesty,†since it fined illegal immigrants $5,000.
MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: So you do believe his plan is amnesty then?
MR. ROMNEY: Not under a legal definition but under the normal, colloquial definition, yes.
Under the normal, colloquial definition, Mr. Romney is talking through his hat. But he isn’t alone."
No, you're right there with him, Mr. Baker. It's that form of casual misrepresentation of the issue that makes progress so hard.
Eduardo, Los Angeles,
When will you get it: the Republicans are simply not in the game this year. I'm not wild about the Democrats but they are at least closer to what the great mass of voters want and need at this time.
The Republicans are in the exact same position as the Conseravtives were in 1997 or, ideed, the Democrats in 1968. They are facing an extended stay in the wilderness until they develpo a new , more mainstream paradigm.
oldasiahand, Guildford, UK
"But somewhere in an attic there must be a portrait of [Romney] that reflects the...shameless dishonesty that has characterised his bid for the presidency. Until a year or two ago Mr Romney held...beliefs on abortion...that were well to the left of anything Mr McCain has ever said."
- A short while ago, didn't you write that one day people will come to realise that abortion is as bad as slavery? Mr. Romney has come to that realisation - and his policy record apparently proves that - but, instead of congratulating him, you seem to want to attack him for not being a cradle anti-abortionist. How can you expect to encourage progress with a sanctimonious attitude like that?
Sue, London,