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From The Times

May 9, 2008

Exit Clinton. But what a show next!

The 2008 presidental contest will be historic for numerous and fascinating reasons

Gerard Baker

If this long US Democratic primary campaign were opera we'd be deep into the final act by now. The doomed soprano would be working her way up the emotional rungs of her last aria. A few feet across the stage would lie the knife fated to deliver her from her plight. The tragic denouement for the fallen heroine is as predictable as it is moving.

Of course, this is the indefatigable Clintons we're talking about, who have never been known to follow anyone else's libretto, so you can't quite be sure how precisely the story will end.

If Hillary Clinton were Madame Butterfly, she'd be out there till the last, quibbling that she could still persuade enough super-delegates that Pinkerton really would be coming back. In the Clinton version of I Pagliacci, Canio's conclusive declaration that “La commedia è finita” would be greeted with a shrill, defiant response from somewhere in the gods: “No it's not. Not until we've counted the delegates from Michigan and Florida!”

And yet even the Clintons must know now, whatever they say in public, that the drama is done. Barack Obama, who was only just out of law school when their presidential dynasty began 16 years ago, has brought it crashing to a premature end.

Her hefty defeat in North Carolina on Tuesday, accompanied by a narrow victory in Indiana, has closed off any last remaining possibility that she can win the Democratic nomination. She trails Mr Obama by so many delegates and by so much in the popular vote that only a collapse by him in the few remaining primaries and an act of political larceny by her in the messy procedural discussions that will follow could deny him the nomination.

And so the scenery changes and the stage is set for a general election campaign, somewhat shorter than most had expected, but still, at more than five months, quite long enough for most voters.

It should be quite a show. For starters, it features a number of historic firsts. Everyone knows by now that Senator Obama would be the first black president. But John McCain will also have a singularity by dint of his birth - the first man born outside the United States to become president (since being native-born American is a condition of eligibility for the presidency, Senator McCain only qualifies by virtue of the fact that when he was born there, the Panama Canal Zone was a US territory).

It will also be the first election to be fought between two sitting members of the US Senate; one of them will be the first senator to become president since John Kennedy and only the second in the nation's history.

Mr McCain is bidding to be the oldest man ever to be elected president for the first time; Mr Obama one of the youngest: the first truly intergenerational presidential campaign - at 25 years the widest age difference between the two main parties' candidates.

The identity of the two candidates also speaks to a significant geographic shift in the centre of gravity of American politics. It will be the first election since 1984 in which neither candidate has roots in, or a strong connection with, the South.

Not much of this will matter in voters' minds, however. Instead, the contest is likely to be determined by what they make of two bigger questions, what political scientists might call meta-issues, that will underpin almost everything that happens between now and November 4.

The first is the classic tension in a presidential race between politics and personality. The politics of 2008 clearly favour the Democratic nominee. The country is ready for change, unhappy with economic stagnation, desperate for an end to the war in Iraq. In the congressional elections that will accompany the presidential one, it is already clear that the Republicans could be headed for a defeat of historic proportions.

But the presidential contest is as much about the characters of the candidates as it is about the politics, and that is why Mr McCain has a chance. Voters will have to weigh the general haziness of Mr Obama's background, his odd connections, perhaps for some his race, certainly his inexperience, against Mr McCain's heroic life story, his age and his famously short temper.

The other crucial meta-theme is the sudden and unexpected decline of partisanship. For the past decade American politics has been deeply polarised. The middle ground shrank to a mere sliver of no man's land across which the two parties fired their partisan ammunition. George Bush won two elections in large part by mobilising his core Republican base better than his Democratic opponents managed theirs.

This year, in a complete reversal, the two parties will be fighting for a vastly expanded swing vote. They have selected two candidates almost uniquely well placed to appeal beyond their party. Mr McCain is healthily despised by a good section of the Republican base, and won his party's nomination only because of a broad appeal to independents and Democrats. With his appealing message of change Mr Obama has built his coalition, from an African-American and well-educated liberal core, out to moderates and even Republicans. But he has repeatedly failed to win substantial numbers of the party's traditional base - the white, unionised working class.

Of course, both candidates will do their best to frame the other as an extremist. Mr Obama will insist that Mr McCain is running for President Bush's third term. Mr McCain will point to Mr Obama's left-wing voting record in the US Senate.

But America's political direction will be decided in a vast middle ground of voters unsure, for the first time in years, that either party has all the answers.

ALSO I have read countless news stories this is the most wide open presidential contest since 1920, where neither candidate served or ran as either president or vice president. But in '52, neither Eisenhower or Stevenson had served or ran as VP or president, Ike being a general and Adlai, governor

Rob, DC, USA

Obama is perceived as being 'Black'. What an insult to the Blacks! He is half-white, half-black but chooses to be labelled 'Black'. What about his White roots? Why does he not also trumpet that? I'm afraid he is neither here nor there.

Ian cheese, London, UK

If the Democratic campaign had been conducted as the Republicans conducted their nomination process (winner take all), HC would be ahead of BO. He reminds me of the fairy story (pun intended) about the "emperor with no clothes" - all style, no substance. McCain will make mincemeat out of him!

Caroline MacKay, St. Albert, Canada

I am sure Obama is the international favorite precisely because he puts other countries' interests first and America second. Don't hold your breath. We American are not stupid. We won't elect a President that undermines our own interest. He will lose by a landslide if he ever got nominated.

KS Cheng, New Hampshire, USA

Sir, You say, "It will also be the first election to be fought between two sitting members of the US Senate; one of them will be the first senator to become president since John Kennedy and only the second in the nation's history." But JQ Adams, Truman and Nixon each served as Senator and President

James F Strother, Chevy Chase, Maryland, USA

The author mentioned "the general haziness" of Obama's background. I hope he meant some people's haziness about his background. There is nothing about his background that can't be learned with a little effort. It is a national and international experience that qualifies him for today's challenges.

Linda, San Diego, USA

McCain will never win, he represents the past when the country is eager to embrace the future, his ideas belong to issues only relevant to the past century

j chavz, Cincinnati, USA

Nathan Watson is correct, and in fact this was put to the test when George Romney (father of Mitt Romney) ran for president. George Romney was born in Mexico while his parents were doing mission work there.

Jon Book, Utica, USA

As far as McCain's eligibility, the courts have never been asked to define "natural born," but note that under US law, children of a US citizen are automatically US citizens. Even if McCain were born in Mexico (as George Romney was), he'd have been a US citizen.

KPO'M, Chicago, IL, USA

Either McCain or Obama will be the first SITTING senator since Kennedy elected to the office of POTUS. They will not be only the second such senator. Warren Harding, elected in 1920 was a senator from Ohio and Franklin Pierce, elected in 1852 was a senator from New Hampshire.

Robert Cunningham, San Mateo, California, USA

"Natural born" citizen meant born within one of the 13 original colonioes that became states; all the early presidents qualified but Alexander Hamilton having been born in the west indies did not. The first president born after the declaration of independence was Martin van Buren.

Robert Cunningham, San Mateo, California, USA

Clinton can still win. West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico favor her candidacy. The narrative will shift again in the next couple of weeks.

The American media have been strongly biased in favor of Obama this year. Don't take their comments as gospel. The voters still need to speak.

Kbrown, catawba, usa

Please. Get a grip! Obama's been a U.S. Senator for 3 years, two of which he's spent running for president. Before that he was an insignificant politician in the Illinois State House, where he accomplished nothing. Great smile, captivating speaker,and zippo accomplishments. We've come to that?

mike, new york, usa/new york

mike Scully, new york, usa/new york

Will the next President continue the War on Terror, or will he admit defeat and withdraw US troops, leading to a worldwide rise in terrorism? Will he continue to grow the US, or will he put in place policies that limit its growth, slowing the engine of world economic growth? All important questions.

Kyle, Detroit, USA

The issue of McAmnesty's citizenship is in federal court, and the matter is wide open. Early in his campaign, McAmnesty hired former Attorney General Solicitor Ted Olson to write a brief in favor of the position that he doesn't have to be born in the United States, so he knew this is a BIG issue.

Straight Talk Hawk, West Des Moines, Iowa, USA

The reason Obama can lose states Kerry won is because Obama is a liberal running against a moderate. Kerry was a liberal running against a conservative.

Some states that leaned to Kerry may go to McCain because the voters can't relate well to Obama. That was his problem against Hillary.

Chris, Memphis, TN, US

Senator McCain was born of U.S. citizens, while one of them was serving on active duty in a U.S. base outside the U.S.
That qualifies him as a *natural born citizen*, period.

Joshua, Buckeye, Az/USA

Those of us who vote for people with good ideas, need to show leadership. Hillary is a sell-out to the Republican viewpoint. This is obvious to one and all. Women voters who think HIllary is looking out for them need to consider what is best for their country and their children.

Gunnar Bjorn, Salem Oregon, USA

I still have yet to hear one reasoned argument to explain how Obama can lose any of the states that voted for Kerry in 2004. All Obama has to do is hold Kerry's states, and add one, and he is president.

Dave, Bainbridge, USA

It should have been clearer, but he meant first *sitting* Senator since JFK.

William, Dublin,

Either Obama or McCain would be a huge improvement on Bush, who must surely have been the worst US President in recent history.

Steve, Aberdeen, Scotland

Should Obama win the nomination, I will be supporting McCain.

When that announcement is made for Obama, if it happens, I will come back to this web site and post my McCain donation receipt.

Celeste Johnson, Pinole, usa

The new president will have to have some policies of substance. So McCain will win.

DickW, Aberdeenshire, Scotland

It is intersting that someone brought up that McCain represents oldies and Obama youngsters. Absolute falsehood. McCain has been more than outspoken over the years to curb entitlements and voted against the perscription drug program. Obama has been the exact opposite

Craig, Voorhees, USA

And Richard Nixon? I seem to remember that he was also born outside of the USA? I am sure the whole world is watching this drama with fascination.

Julius Bramley, Bathurst, South Africa

Yes, the election will decided in the middle and this is why John McCain will win. McCain is center/right on the political spectrum, which is where most Americans are. Barack Obama is from the extreme left, as evidenced by his voting record in the U.S. Senate as well as his past associations.

Dan, San Diego, CA, USA

I read in disbelief the comment that Obama's happiness comes from living a moral, driven life. What a joke! He hasen't run a moral driven campaign, much less lived a moral driven life.

Sue, Grand Rapids, USA

Warren G. Harding was a US Senator as well.

Sean, Richmond, USA

The condecension of the intelligentsia toward their backward cousins is matched only by their consternation when these bumpkins continue to vote contrary to the way they think they should. It is reminiscent of Marx's frustration with the "lumpen proletariat" who refused to join his revolution.

Rick, Cincinnati,

There was a slight mistake on the remark about the South. John McCain is a son and grandson of Navy admirals and graduates of the Naval Acadamy. His grandfather was from a smal town in SE Mississippi.

Anthony Waller, Los Altos CA, USA

Re: M J, from Truro, UK

You are correct on the fact that a child born on a US military place, anywhere, qualifies as a U.S. citizen, however, on your first point, I'm afraid you are in error. All U.S. presidents have been born in the U.S. (Or one of the original colonies in the U.S.)

Bill, Reno, NV, USA

With all due respect to Senator McCain and his outstanding background, I don't the vetting of McCain has began yet. Let's wait and see whose baggage is truly the heaviest here.

Karen, Colonia, US

McCain's being a war hero does not make him a moral human being, nor one suited to the running of this once great nation.
His great moral failings are a secret to no one, nor are his flip-flops on issues when it's expedient.
Obama's "happiness" comes from having lived a moral, driven life.

Sandy Roberts-Anderson, Cambria-Pines-by-the-Sea, USA

For M J, Truro, UK,
The first few presidents couldn't possibly be "natural born" because the nation didn't exist yet. Those who were, happened to have been founding fathers.
As far as McCain, he was born on a US military base and military bases ARE US soil regardless of where they are located.

LW, Lancaster,

Hope they both pick good VP candidates because I don't expect either of them to fulfill their presidencies if elected.

LW, Lancaster,

Mr. Baker may have fumbled the "Senator" angle a bit but it's generally stated as no sitting U.S. Senator since JFK has been elected President. While, yes Johnson and Nixon had served in the Senate, neither was elected while in that office.

Art, Murfreesboro, USA

The US Constitution reads: "No person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President...." Therefore, G. Washington qualifies.

Aaron K, Washington, DC, USA

MJ - the US constitution stipulates that the president must be either a natural born US citizen, or was a US citizen at the time of the adoption of the constitution in 1789. This latter clause covered George Washington and indeed 9 out of the first 12 presidents.

David , New Jersey, USA

Neither will be the first senator in the White House since JFK - both Johnson and Nixon had senate careers, Johnson serving as Senate minority leader.

Jennifer , London,

McCain and Obama are both controlled by the CFR and both have agreed to give up sovereignty and accept the NAFTA and North American Union.

Although if Obama comes in their will be less war, there will rob the US at home.

McCain will be hell bent on War and the military industrial complex.

Andrew T, England, UK,

Re: only born US-citizens qualifying for presidency -
George Washington, anyone?
Born in North America, yes, but technically not really a US citizen until much later...

M J, Truro, UK

It's true, it says in the constitution that you must be a 'Natural-born American Citizen' that is a citizen automatically at birth rather than having applied for citizenship at a later stage.

Statten Roeg, London, England

The deciding factor will be age. The political debate in America is dominated by oldies and they are determined to preserve their entitlements at all cost, even if it means bankrupting future generations. Ergo, McCain will win.

AA, New York,

Franklin Delano Roosevelt was born on January 30, 1882 in the Hudson Valley town of Hyde Park. His father, James Roosevelt, and his mother, Sara Ann Delano, were each from wealthy old New York families, of Dutch and French ancestry respectively. Franklin was their only child.

/Courtesy of Wikiped

Jean Abbey, Belrose, Sydney NSW, Australia

With the greatest of respect, to be eligible to become president, one must be born a US citizen. One could achieve this either by being born physically on U.S. soil (i.e., regardless of one's parents' citizenship) or be borne to parents at least one of whom is a U.S. citizen.

Nathan Watson, Esq., Council Bluffs, Iowa, USA

FDR was born outside the United States, in Newfioundland, while his parents were on vacation at the Bay of Fundy. .

Sam Kaplan, Philadelphia, USA

Obama has a massive tidal-wave of funding at his disposal, and McCain has very little indeed. That alone would seem to seal the deal. McCain's only chance is that a large number of former Hillary supporters will either switch their vote to him or not vote at all, resulting in a poor turnout.

Daniel, Christchurch, New Zealand

that was a great piece! you do great columns.

david famularo, Featherston, New Zealand

Election 2008 is important not only for the U.S.A. It is important for the world. It is important for the new president to win back America's good name after Bush has rubbished it. The new president has to have quick intelligence, judgement, intuition, daring, good health and youthful energy.

San Ying, Montreal, Canada

To extend the dramatic analogy a little further, the situation is as much Shakespearian as operatic. Lord and Lady Macbeth, like all other Americans, must be wondering if all the perfumes of Arabia wil sweeten their collective little hands.

James , Canberra, Australia.

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Gerard Baker

Gerard Baker is United States Editor and an Assistant Editor of The Times. He joined in 2004 from the Financial Times, where he had spent over ten years as Tokyo correspondent and Washington Bureau Chief. His weekly oped column appears on Fridays