Simon Jenkins
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Last week Nato defence ministers met in Seville to review the coming spring offensive in Afghanistan. It was like Great War generals dining in Versailles to discuss the trenches. The new Nato commander, US General John Craddock, asked for 2,000 more troops. Just one more push and the Taliban would be defeated, the Afghan army readied to fight, the opium dealers arrested and more aid committed to reconstruction. It was as simple as that. Anyone for paella?
How does this strategy look from the other place in the world where it is being tried, Colombia? This month Washington is redeploying one of its star diplomats, William Wood, from Bogota to Kabul with the enthusiastic blessing of the Pentagon. Wood has been overseeing Plan Colombia, President Clinton’s eight-year effort to fight the cocaine cartels and left-wing insurgents and make Latin America safe for pro-Americanism.
Wood will be joining the new US Nato commander in Kabul, General Dan McNeill, and reversing the allegedly feeble policies of the outgoing British commander, General David Richards. The fourfold increase in violence over the past year is attributed by the Americans to an excess of soft hearts and minds. Wood will want to beef up poppy eradication to starve the insurgency of revenue.
Colombia is undeniably a country which, six years ago, faced disaster. Main roads were blocked by mafiosi and kidnappings and massacres were endemic. Drug lords, revolutionaries and right-wing paramilitaries fought for control of a trade that supplied 90% of America’s cocaine. The Cali and Medellin cartels offered to finance public services and pay off Colombia’s foreign debt in return for quasi-recognition by Bogota. This admirably capitalist innovation — de facto legalising supply — was too much for the Americans.
Instead Washington pumped $600m a year into Colombia’s army and police, enabling the central government to reestablish a measure of command over its own country. An independent, Alvaro Uribe, was elected president in 2002 and hurled men and money at security. The murder rate fell by a third and kidnappings by two thirds. Most of Colombia is now as safe as anywhere in Latin America. Uribe was reelected last year with 62% of the vote in a fair election.
Uribe cannot stem the cocaine trade. Crop-spraying shifts production into Bolivia, Peru and the Amazon jungle, where mile upon mile of virgin forest is lost to coca each year, an ecological disaster that is a direct result of western drugs policy. As long as prohibition sustains a lucrative market for narcotics, countries such as Colombia will supply it. Traditional coca-growing nations on the Andean spine will have their politics and economics blighted by criminality. Growth will be stifled and governments left vulnerable to left-wing rebellion. The war on drugs is the stupidest war on earth.
The best that elected leaders such as Uribe can hope for is to establish a desperate equilibrium: drug suppliers kept relatively nonviolent while right-wing vigilantes are half-tolerated to counterbalance left-wing guerrillas. The only test is survival and as long as Uribe survives America smiles. On an increasingly rabid antiAmerican continent he is one sure ally.
Cut to Afghanistan. Here, too, the West is intervening in a narco-economy that is destabilising a pro-western government. Here, too, quantities of aid have been dedicated to security yet have fed corruption. Here, too, intervention has boosted drug production and stacked the cards against law and order. This year’s Afghan poppy crop is predicted to be the largest on record. European demand has boosted the price paid for Afghan poppies to nine times that of wheat. At this differential a policy of crop substitution is absurd.
Afghanistan is not Colombia. Here the West is not using a local government to implement its drugs and counter-insurgency policy. Some 40,000 Nato troops from more than 30 different countries are gathered in Kabul. Since many of them refuse to fight, the city has become a holiday camp for the world’s military elite. Outside the capital, military occupation acts as a recruiting sergeant for insurgency, leaving Nato bases constantly on the defensive. The war in Afghanistan is proving that an enemy can be held at bay but only at vast expense in money and casualties. It will not be defeated.
The British policy of occupying small towns to win hearts and minds has been a bloody failure. It was wisely replaced last autumn with deals struck with local power brokers, the so-called Musa Qala and Helmand protocols. Up to $5m is handed over to any warlord who can claim provincial control, accepting the pragmatism of the Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, who on January 29 even called for negotiation with the Taliban. The local British commander, Brigadier Jerry Thomas, was explicit in seeking to “empower local people to use traditional tribal structures . . . to find an Afghan solution to an Afghan problem”. In truth, there is no other conceivable way to disengage from this mess. A similar “endgame” is being pursued by the new American commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, in securing safe areas policed by local militias.
Now the Americans wish to reverse British realpolitik. To them what Afghanistan needs is a taste of Colombia and Ambassador Wood.
Musa Qala must be reoccupied and poppy-spraying must commence. This defies the view of western intelligence in Kabul which has been convinced that America’s heavy-handed tactics and addiction to aerial bombardment have cost the West five years in Afghanistan. Local commanders are equally opposed to the opium eradication that obsesses the defence ministry in London and the Foreign Office’s Kim Howells. Apart from the futility of trying to spray so vast an area as Helmand, drug lords are the only counterweight to the Taliban. Poisoning Afghanistan’s staple crop and contaminating fields and water supply will push up the price of opium and further breed hatred of the occupation. It is madness.
In Colombia the Americans achieved a sort of equilibrium because local politics was left to police the narco-economy. In Afghanistan Karzai is treated as an American puppet whose authority outside Kabul depends entirely on occupying forces. There is no way that provincial Afghanistan will be pacified by Nato and left to Karzai’s army. Afghan troops (like the Iraqis) will not fight local militias. Training them to do so is pointless as they merely switch sides when the occupiers depart. Ask the few journalists brave enough to visit the battlefields of Helmand and the Pakistan border.
In Colombia the central government enjoyed sufficient democratic legitimacy for its army to drive insurgents into the jungle and induce the drug lords and paramilitaries to surrender (some of) their guns and power, albeit at a heavy cost in justice and human rights. Afghanistan has never enjoyed such central authority, except briefly under the Taliban. It will not do so under the guns of 30 occupying powers. The south of the country craves security and gets only bombs and bullets and is increasingly inclined to the iron rule of the Taliban. Since any prospective Karzai/Taliban coalition is unlikely to please the Tajiks and other tribes of the north, all western meddling will achieve is to set Afghanistan on the road back to the 1990s.
Having visited both Afghanistan and Colombia, I have no doubt that those countries’ miseries start and end in narcotics. With an almighty and bloodthirsty effort, the production of cocaine in Colombia and opium in Afghanistan might possibly be displaced, but only to other benighted countries. What would be the point? As long as rich countries consume these substances in massive quantities it is hypocritical to lay waste the poor countries producing them and thus make them poorer.
Punishing supply is not a “parallel” policy to curbing demand, as economically illiterate policy makers pretend. Demand is never curbed by limiting supply, since supply responds to price. It just will not work.
Hence pretending to victory in Colombia is no different from staving off defeat in Afghanistan. Both are cruel expiations of western narco-guilt. The difference is that in Afghanistan intervention has led us into an unwinnable war.
simon.jenkins@sunday-times.co.uk
Simon Jenkins’s book, Thatcher & Sons, was last week named as Channel 4 political book of the year
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The violence in Colombia is the result of the obscure combination of drug dealers, leftist guerrillas, paramilitary groups and common criminals as a whole, everything forms part of a massive network that has only one objective in common.. that is to produce and smuggle the biggest quantity of drugs in order to make as much profit as possibble. The ounce of cocaine that some Europeans and Americans buy and enjoy so much in their fancy parties has a terrible impact on the life of millions of Colombians who had nothing to do with any sort of drugs in the first place, we have stood alone for more than 25 years, spent more than 30% of our GDP every year, lost thousands of acres of tropical forrest, and lost hundreds of thousands of our people by trying to erradicate such "evil" . Stop Killing us!!! dont buy any drugs, it's all we demand from the world in return!!
Juan Carlos Torres, Sydney, Australia/NSW
What's amazing about this article (like 99% of Colombian violence reports) is that 75% of murders in the country in an average year are not the responsibility of 'mafiosi' or terrorists - but common criminals i.e. street gangs, bar brawls, banditry, domestic disputes etc.
Not even mentioned and it's amazing how this fact continues to be left out of Colombian news items, amazing!
Morris, London,
I absolutely agree with Huw Williams. You'd think the the Americans [ and everybody else ] would have realised this when they tried it with alcohol
James , Canberra, Australia.
Our anti poppy growing mission in Afghanistan must be the most misguided casus bellum ever. How can we be so very stupid? Prohition of drugs and the inevitable accompaniments of gangsterism and unnecessary and damaging drug wars MUST be ended.
Dane Clouston, Oxford, Great Britain
mr jenkins-
shame on you. like most journalists, you casually gloss over whats positive to dwell on all the bad.
there have been some major victories for security and
stability and democracy in both of those countries. but then,
that doesn't sell papers, does it now? and being a journalist, you have the answer to it all in just a few sentences, eh? while these guys in charge who have studied such stuff as counternarcotics, counterinsurgency,
etc, well, they're all wrong. simon thinks we should do it
thusly. well, i have been to both of those places, and i
am proud of some of the things uribe, karzai, and the US
have accomplished in the name of stability, security and democracy. thank god i don't accept all the tripe the print media puts out cheaply as 'the truth'!
dave c, kansas city,
The new style seems fine. But one complaint: I can't find the Games section. Since losing my husband last year, I enjoy my weekday 'fix' of doing the Polygon -- it gives me an elementary satisfaction to get the average number of words, particularly the word using all the letters. I hope you haven't abandoned this on-line facility for a tired old septuagenarian such as I. I don't want to go back to the paper version (which I'd been used to all my previous life), because there's so much else to read these days, including the books that I so easily order. And I do get the TLS by mail each week. I'm willing to pay a subscription to get the Polygon on line, if that would help!
Ann Coryton Jameson, LONDON, ENGLAND
Thie problem with this article is that success in fighting cocaine in Colombia has encouraged production in other countries.
The amount of cocaine in the west is the same as before.
Therefore success in Afghanistan will only send production somewhere else(an ex Soviet state I would guess)
The problem is not the supply of drugs but the deman
There are only 3 possible solutions :-
1) Harsher penalties (not acceptable politically)
2) Legalisation
3) large scale infiltration of drug suppliers and contamination of drugs with emetics (probably not legal or practical).
David, London,
Excellent article. Talibans, Afghans, Pushtuns will never surrender to the approach devised by the US. One last thing Tony Blair can do before he goes is to come to Pakistan and sit with the real representatives of the people, the Talibans and the Jehadi diaspora in the tribal areas of Pakistan to sort out a just solution of the problem. Only negotiatian and kindness can resolve this growing problem before it is too late.
Saeed, Peshawar, Pakistan
It has been painful watching the internationally agreed policy to eradicate the drug trade failing over the last 30 years. The occasional year that was no worse than the one before has always turned out to be a false dawn.
Failing policies persisted in ultimately start to corrupt and destroy other policies. That is now happening in damage to the promotion of democracy in Latin America, and in Afghanistan. It is difficult to put aside our high hopes in face of reality but the longer we put off the radical review of drugs policy, the worse we will find the damage.
David Heigham, Madrid, Spain
Hi
The Times online is good for me because i could not get a paper today and i would of found the the Chinese CD great as Im visiting China in june for a month, but never mind, good reviews.
Bye
suzanne holmes, Birkenhead, Wirral, uk
The cheapest solution would be for the US to buy up the whole Afghanistan poppy crop for slightly more than the drugs cartels could afford. This would not alienate the country by destroying its staple crop, and it would be a hell of a lot cheaper than a 10 year war followed by an ignominious retreat. When one adds to this the reduction in crime and social costs that would result, it becomes a 'no brainer'. Unfortunately, America does not have that sort of pragmatism.
Roddy Campbell, Christchurch, New Zealand
a good article, if only the US had listened to us in 2001, we would have avoided this mess.
The Taliban are the only people capable of bringing peace to Afghanistan. They must be weaned away from Bin Laden and opium. I think this is very possible, after which time will allow them to develop into a more sophisticated government. It is silly to try and implement our ways on Afghans. They must do these things themselves.
akram, London, UK
The most effective action would be to collapse the Narco economies by legalising drug use in the consumer countries. Supplying drugs to those who require them in a safe and controlled manner would mean that the price for raw opium or cocoa would be dictated by governments and not criminal gangs, by removing the many middlemen from the supply the price and demand would fall, farmers would look to other crops for profit or perhaps even grow food. This policy would not require a single soldier in the producing countries or any other type of force. The huge resources freed from our Military,Police,Prison and aftercare services along with the massive cut in domestic crime could be spent on drug education and treatment to begin cutting demand. Prohibition has no effect other than to create a highly lucrative criminal supply chain,
Huw Williams, Milford Haven, U.K.
I simply cannot understand why no-one seems to support the simplest solution to the Afghanistan opium problem; this is for Western governments to pay the Afghan farmers well over the market price for their poppy crop, and transform it into morphine - which could then be used medically. This solution is far less expensive (and much simpler) than waging war against tribesmen who have no other sources of income and a very long history of ferocious independence. It would also (and ironically) use free market forces to destroy the funding relied on by the Taliban (and others) who currently depend on this trade to finance their activities. "L'argent est le nerf de la guerre", as they say round here - so is not the obvious solution simply to paralyse the nervous system?
John Halford, Paris, France
Simon Jenkins is of course entirely correct. Indeed, his thesis could be extended; we could characterise what passes for the West today as the source of several damaging "demands" that are eagerly fed by criminal supplies. In addition to Opium (and it by-products) we also invite: human organ harvesting, the embryo trade, human trafficking, African child adoption, mass (illegal) immigration, to name just five. Kill off the sources of demand and presto, no more problem. But, doing that might disturb the cozy incomes (or immoral expectations) of some of the shameless rubbish that constitute a significant part of our moneyed, liberal elite.
Errol Flynn, Chester, England
Why doesn't Simon Jenkins tell the truth? Afghanistan's Musa Qala is now in the hands of the Taliban because British forces were the victims of London's 'liberal' policy of 'handing control to local tribal leaders' - with these latter turning out to be none other than the Taliban themselves! No wonder the Americans are contemptuous of such self-serving and idiotic 'liberalism' in action!
Jenkins doesn't have a single word of criticism for continental European politicians' abject - and disgraceful - refusal to provide troops to fight alongside American, British and Canadian troops in Afghanistan. Why not? A war is only 'unwinnable' if you don't fight it. Does Jenkins approve of continental Europe's refusal to fight? The fact that he doesn't say, says everything.
Last week Minette Marrin raged against those who have betrayed our civilisation. Jenkins' liberalism is the ideology of Western suicide.
Terry Daly, London, Great Britain
Brilliant analysis. It confirms the old saying that third rate managers (President Bush) surround themselves with fourth rate people (Neoconmen?!)
Andy, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
I totally agree the war on drugs is stupid.You only have to look at prohibition in the USA to see that it only breeds criminality which we are still paying for today. The current "war" has already been lost so why not admit it and change direction. Use the vast amounts of money saved in drugs education and providing criminals with an alternative path in life. People have to take responsibility for their own lives. If you take drugs and die, so be it, your choice, as with smoking and excessive alcohol consumption.
On the specific subject of Afganistans opium, why can this not be bought up by phamaceutical companies and converted into legal drugs. Huge amounts of opiates are used annually in hospitals and in pain relieving drugs. So far I have never heard anyone mention this potential solution.
Mike Dickinson, Stockholm, Sweden
To oldasiahand - Why is it that many of you Brits love to bash America? We are the best of friends. We are not perfect and neither are you. When we were dragged into the two world wars of the last century we went in full force with winning as our goal. Now that the shoe is on the other foot all we get are meager committments with so many strings attached that you might as well have stayed home. Thanks alot. True friends show what they're made of when the chips are down. I've started to feel that Britainistan is no longer a friend.
Charles, Philadelphia, US
I agree, make drugs legal and take care of needs here (USA) and let China keep order in the world, should be a interesting time.
If we are really lucky perhaps order will collapse world wide, then we will be able to judge the problems from our bunkers.
Take care when you wish for change.
james johnson, waukesha, usa/wisconsin
The first step in problem solving is to define the problem. The problem with the US, and by implication the UK, is they don't know in Afghanistan just what the problem is.
Pre-9/11 the Taliban were not a problem. They contolled poppy production and the passage of an oil pipeline. It was only OBL and 9/11 that changed that. But OBL is no longer on the radar. For PR reasons to support the invasion of Afghanistan all sorts of worthwhile reasons have been dreamt up. The politics of invasion have lost momentum and we're left with PR thinking - it that's not an oxymoron.
eddie reader, bimingham,
nice reading.
nothing new
Omer, Calicut, India
I agree with just about every word in this piece. Defeat may have a silver lining: the effective collapse of NATO and US economic and military dominance of Europe. Effectively losing wars in Iraq and Afghainistan would have the US turn increasingly inward. It is time policy makers thought this through instead of their reflexive grovelling subservience to an evil America under an incompetent and corrupt administration.
oldasiahand, Guildford, Surrey