Richard Lloyd Parry
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Early on in his presidency, George W. Bush dropped a few broad hints that the North Korean leader, Kim Jong Il, was not quite his cup of tea. There was the time he described him as a “pygmy”, for example, and compared him with “a spoilt child”.
There was the famous occasion when he lumped North Korea in with Iraq and Iran as the “Axis of Evil”. Or there was the moment when he put it most simply of all. “I loathe Kim Jong Il,” he told the journalist Bob Woodward, who describes the President “waving his finger in the air”.
So George Bush doesn’t like Kim Jong Il — but Kim Jong Il doesn’t care. And wherever he is lurking now, in the isolated, impenetrable dictatorship that he rules, Kim Jong Il must be laughing at the humiliation that he has heaped on the world’s most powerful man. For that is what yesterday’s six-party agreement in Beijing represents — a just humiliation for Washington, the collapse of four years of arrogance and misjudgment in a chaos of U-turns and compromises.
That is not how it will be spun, of course. In the version propagated in Washington it is North Korea that is stepping down, by agreeing to freeze its biggest nuclear reactor and allow in international inspectors, four months after carrying out its first nuclear test. Even this result is far from guaranteed — the Beijing agreement is no more than an outline, and many months of arduous haggling lie ahead. But even if were honoured in full, yesterday’s document should be a cause of shame rather than satisfaction to the US Administration.
It will do no more than restore the relationship with Kim Jong Il that the US and its allies had six years ago. Back then, in the last days of Bill Clinton, there were international inspectors at the Yongbyon nuclear reactor, as there may soon be again. Back then the US and its partners supplied fuel and aid to North Korea — as they promised to do again in Beijing yesterday. Back then North Korea was a frightening totalitarian dictatorship in which free speech was a crime and people starved for lack of good government. Nothing has changed.
One thing is different in North Korea now — in contrast with 2001, when President Clinton left office, Kim Jong Il has built and tested nuclear weapons. This is the sum achievement of two terms of Bush policy on North Korea: to allow the world’s most brittle and unpredictable state to acquire the Bomb.
A quick rewind may be necessary — from Europe and the United States, North Korea is a distant concern, and this has allowed the diplomatic absurdities of the past few years to slip by largely unremarked. By the mid1990s North Korea was an orphan of history — the last totalitarian Stalinist enclave in the world. Its former patrons, Russia and China, were hurrying to attract international capital. Kim Jong Il had a large, but steadily rusting army. But then it emerged that he had something else — a nuclear reactor capable of generating weapons-grade plutonium.
President Clinton took this seriously — at one point, as we now know, he was within hours of ordering an air attack on the Yongbyon reactor. But at the last minute a deal was brokered — fuel oil and “safe” light-water reactors in exchange for freezing the reactor. Over the next few years both sides breached parts of the agreement, but the seals stayed on Yongbyon. Even Kim Jong Il seemed to come out of his shell, holding a summit with the South Korean President and entertaining Mr Clinton’s Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright. Then along came George W. Bush.
President Bush doesn’t like Kim Jong Il. But to dislike an oppressive dictator is no mark of moral or intellectual distinction. The clever thing is to come up with ideas for dealing with him. And George Bush had none. Singled out as an evildoer, by a President who publicly espoused a policy of preemptive attack, Kim Jong Il not unpredictably became defensive. And, lacking adequate fuel for his tanks or spare parts for his planes, he took his nuclear programme out of mothballs. The international inspectors were expelled, the processing of the plutonium began. But beyond pronouncing him loathsome, Mr Bush had little more to say.
His policy expressed itself in negatives. Even before the Iraq debacle, a military attack was out of the question — North Korea could not win a fight with the US, but in losing it could devastate South Korea. The US vowed it would never negotiate with the North Koreans one-to-one — hence the six-party talks with China, Russia, South Korea and Japan. There the US demanded something known by the acronym CVID — complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantling of the North’s nuclear programme. Until that happened, North Korea would be a pariah — in a much repeated phrase, there would be “no reward for bad behaviour”.
What inducement was there in such circumstances for Kim Jong Il to give up his nuclear programme? He was like an outlaw urged by the sheriff to put down his gun so that he could be more safely shot. North Korea ignored the US demands and continued to process its plutonium and test its rockets. Sanctions have had little effect on a country whose economy has already collapsed — the Chinese Government, which controls the cross-border oil pipeline into North Korea, could have brought Kim Jong Il to his knees if it chose. But the risk of a civil war and an outpouring of refugees into their own territory was a price the Chinese were not prepared to pay.
Then came the nuclear test last October — the final proof that merely loathing Kim Jong Il did nothing to make the world a safer place. In Berlin last month US officials quietly began doing what they had said they would never do — negotiating bilaterally with their North Korean counterparts. Yesterday they agreed to a package of about $330 million of fuel and aid in return for the refreezing of the Yongbyon reactor — the reward that the US swore never to give. As for CVID, the irritating acronym has been quietly dropped.
Yesterday’s agreement is good sense, in fact. It is painful to engage with a government as repressive as North Korea, but as the US Administration has demonstrated, there is no alternative. One should be experiencing relief that reason has returned to US diplomacy. But it is difficult not to feel a deep sense of waste, lost opportunity and anger.
Richard Lloyd Parry is Asia Editor of The Times
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The major difference between the Clinton agreement and the Bush agreement is that this one is not just a bi-lateral agreement that cannot be verified. This agreement is made between six parties in a multi-lateral effort which demands that in order to receive the fuel oil the DPRK will have 60 days to shutdown its reactor and have it verified by inspectors. That is a major difference from the Clinton effort which was hoodwinked out of the aid it gave away while the DPRK built its weapons. Let's not forget that the weapons, as the DPRK announced to begin this latest episode, were built during the time of Clinton's agreement that Mr. Parry praises. The fact that they tested a very small device during this latest round of extortion is not a failure of the Bush administration. It was a failure of the Clinton administration. The test was inevitable given Kim Jong Il's passion for brinksmanship. Kim's trump card has been played only to get $330m to show for it. Kim has no moves left.
Tim Higgins, Covington, GA / USA
This shows how the world's most warlike dictator, Emperor George Bush II, can be brought to reason by determined diplomacy. Now if the US regime's criminal career can be stopped before it launches another war, against Iran, then we can get on with the business of general nuclear disarmament. This primarily requires disarming the most aggressive and dangerous state in the world, i.e. the American rogue empire itself, the state whose defence spending (attack spending more accurately) exceeds that of the entire world around it. It's high time for the promise to disarm that the USA made under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to be implemented.
Richard Cheeseman, Wellington, New Zealand
Where is the actual success here? Are the US celebrating to soon? Although Mr Kim may shut down Yongbyon what will happen to Kims bombs? This is only a freeze on the means of production of the bombs but what has already been manufactured is still a threat particularly to South Korea. On the official Korean News Agency today it is described as a "temporary shutdown" of the Yongbyon reactor which is inconsistent with the US claims. The North Koreans have 60 days to shut down their reactor, what will go wrong in the 11th hour that will keep the reactor running?
Stuart Corrigan, Kings Lynn, UK
Nuclear bomb has protected North Korea and this sends a message to other non nuclear counties. The only real protection from USA is a nuclear bomb and that is a fact. Iraq was invaded because it did not have a nuclear bomb. Iran is being threatend because it does not have a nuclear bomb.
Can we blame independant countries under threat from USA trying to get this bomb.
Suresh Kumar, London,
Personally, I think the reason that the talks reached some form of success was that the US, discreetly, entered into bilateral talks with North Korea under cover of the six-party talks. Im sure this action, long proclaimed as not on the cards by the US, was prompted by the Bush governments need for some sort of foreign policy success to off set the long string of disasters. Of course, further down the road Kim Jong Il will almost certainly again try to field the issue of nuclear weapons to get more aid, and at that point things will start to get very difficult indeed.
Space Station 1, in orbit over the uk,
Typical 'Blame America First' drivel. North Korea was well into the process of breaking agreements made under the Clinton administration long before president Bush showed up on the scene. And as if president Bush 'let' the North Koreans develop nuclear weapons by refusing to bow to NK's disingenuous agreements and extortions. Ridiculous.
Matt Morga, Dallas, USA
More anti-Bush rubbish. Kim ceremoniously shut down one nuclear program to hoodwink Clinton and his emmisary Carter but covertly operated a second, which yielded nuclear devices. A key element in the current Stalinist backdown is the growing success of our anti-missile program and China's concern their over-extended pawns will become too problematic. Their failed missile was either a dud or they aborted it for fear we would sufficiently track it for a potential shoot-down. Worrying the enemy into inaction is one purpose of a deterrent.
From a former Democrat voting Republican since 1994.
William Sonzski, Boston, USA
So where is Europe on North Korea? Nowhere in Mr. Parry's article does he say what should have been done. Had the US dropped a bomb on their reactor then the US would have been crucified in the press. Perhaps Gary from London could explain how all the hard work and diplomacy done by the Clinton Administration could have effectively led to a different conclusion. Just once I would like to hear plausable alternatives and not just criticism.
Greg, Manchester,
Im afraid I disagree with Richard's argument, which is in effect, that Kim Jong-Il got the Bomb because of George Bush. Kim &his father learnt a long time ago that the only way for his regime to survive was to blackmail the rest of the world: give me aid, money, fuel, or I build a nuclear weapon. (&lets not forget that N.Korea first expressed interest in nuclear weapons as far back as the 1970s - long before Bush Junior). Pre-emptive attacks are not the reserve of George W. either - as you say yourself, Clinton almost ordered a preemtive attack on Yongbyon. So what changed? Quite simply, N.Korea acquiring the bomb was an inevitablilty. There is only so far blackmail will get you before you have to play your trump card. And the $330m package now offered? Once it has all been used up, N.Korea will simply threaten to re-open its reactor once again... unless it is given more money and fuel. The world once again, will have no choice but to give in. Bush, in this instance, is not to blame.
Denny, London, UK
It is a straw in the wind of Western decadence that we have gone soft on totalitarianism. Ambassador Boulton is right. And that goes for Castro and China and Chávez. Wrong signals. Wrong message. Chasing butterflies in Iraq while the real enemy grows strong. We shall reap storms out of the winds W is sowing,
Eugene Cappuccio, Heidelberg, germany
North Korea has leveraged the neclear issue to gain much needed aid for itself and possibly secured the long term tenure of its dictator. Once again , the US and especially George W have shown to be shortsighted, inept at diplomacy and full of hot air. History will probably show that the US won the day and Mr Blair has already begu the spin on their behalf. The real losers are the North Korean people who will continue to suffer.
Hamad Lone, Thornton Heath, England
Thank you, your comment articulates precisely how I feel. Its back to square one for this US administration. I could see it back then that this would be the likely outcome but GW Bush just had to learn it the hard way. All that hard work and diplomacy done by the Clinton administration was just thrown away by an new and hawkish foreign policy team. There is lots of spin to try and disguise this as a new development for this troubled region. But for those of us who have witnessed it from the beginning , it is a story of failure and incompetence.
Gary, London,
Having now obtained nuclear weapons and secured hisdictatorship from external threats, KJI must be laughing all the way to the bank.
Well done Dubya.
Gavin, Canberra , Australia
Revisionist twaddle. Clinton had no more of an idea on North Korea than George W. And the recent sanctions and crackdowns on counterfeiting, drug running and arms trading have clearly had a positive effect. I suspect that Kim further pushed his country towards collapse with the dash to build a bomb, and hence the willingness now to appear conciliatory in return for aid. In a few years, if things get a bit easier for him and his odious regime as the rest of the world looks elsewhere, he will go back to his bomb making. And this time he might come up something that really goes bang, rather than fizzles as his first test did. If he makes it portable (small enough to fit on one of his many long range missiles) and / or sells it to the highest bidder, the appeasement praised here will be seen as a dirty compromise that was a terrible mistake.
G, London,
I'm astonished at how biased this article is (and in The Times?). The cause of change in diplomacy from the US was due to North Korea pursuing nuclear weapons, not the other way around (as suggested here). Furthermore, it was Clinton's lack of action that caused the crisis to form, not the actions of the Bush administration (as is suggested here). Your opinions appear heavily scewed by an obvious anti-Bush agenda. It seems possible to some that the Bush administration tried to do something about a mounting crisis (i.e., the North getting nuclear weapons), which the rest of the world (as is happening all too often now) refused to act upon because it was led by the americans. Now, voila (and I use the French term here purposfully), we have a nuclear armed North Korea.
m, Newcastle,
Its a joke that Clinton took anything serious. Was his near decision to bomb N. Korea one of his choices between bombing there or Sudan to distract from his impeachement proceeding that day? If you think N.Korea's road to the bomb started and ended during the Bush administration you're not qualified to be writing here. Sleep tight...we've got your back!
Murph, madisonville, KY
Not only is the analysis of the North Korea/American relationship in the article accurate, but it also confirms Bushs act first (usually rashly and impetuously), think and rationalise later approach to governance.
The prime example of this approach is, of course, the Iraqi invasion, which unfortunately, cannot be reversed in the manner that Bush is now reversing some of his key decisions eg relaxation of some of demands of the Sarbanes-Oxley, when it was discovered that it was impacting adversely on the American economy. Another example is his reversal of aspects of steel tariffs that he put in place some years ago. Now comes this climbdown over North Korea.
Ayo Odelusi, Wallington, UK
It is incorrect (but telling of the subtle anti-Bush bias of this article) to suggest that the Axis of Evil Speech caused KJI to restart the nuclear programme - the programme had never been stopped nor was it in mothballs since the time of the Carter brokered bribe deal of the early 1990s. No doubt the sabre rattling of Bush caused KJL to order a show detonation of a pretty mediocre weapon, but KJL never had any intention of stopping the programme as it was in fact rewarded by carter's nonsensical deal.
Both Clinton and Bush have not been tough enough on KJL. Whatever the US dies, it is China that holds the key. Keeping KJL on a leash is in China's interests - the grip can be lessened any time China wants to toy with the US.
Toby, Sydney,