Alastair Campbell
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I have it from no fewer than three sources that when I wrote on these pages about the Tory leadership contest in September 2005, my argument had a profound effect on David Cameron and George Osborne. These are not any old sources. One is no lesser a personage than Danny Finkelstein. The other two are Mr Cameron and George Osborne.
My article argued that every Tory leader since Margaret Thatcher had vowed to lead from the centre, but slipped to the right under the pressure of events, instinct and politics. And that until a leader came along who said he would lead from the centre and then stick to it, the Tories were destined for a long time in opposition. I made the case that Tony Blair dominated politics not because of his considerable communications skills, but because he took difficult political and strategic decisions and stuck to them. New Labour, New Britain was more than a slogan.
Around that time Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne decided that they would be defiantly modernising and centrist. They didn’t think that they would win, but win they did.
To be fair to Mr Cameron, he has stuck to his word. He talks a lot about the need to occupy the centre ground, the need to modernise and the need to understand how Britain has changed. But, in his decisions, he remains timid and devoid of strategic follow-through. By this stage of his leadership, Mr Blair had not only had his Clause Four moment, changing Labour’s constitution as a bold symbol of modernisation, he had also signalled and begun to drive through changes in Labour’s approach to the economy, job creation, trade unions, the constitution, welfare reform, defence and other areas of foreign policy. The communicator communicated well. But he had something substantial to say.
For all his current difficulties, Mr Blair remains the figure shaping the political landscape. His obvious successor, Gordon Brown, will be judged by some on how he differs from Mr Blair, by others on the extent to which he continues on the same reforming path. As for Mr Cameron, he makes no secret that he wishes to be seen as the natural heir to Mr Blair. What Mr Blair would most fear from Mr Cameron is a clearly defined political position that began to connect with the public. Mr Cameron is not remotely there.
When I say to Tories that Labour’s position is not as bad as they may like to think, they tend to respond: “But we’re ahead in the polls.” Tomorrow’s elections are not won or lost on today’s polls. They are won and lost on arguments that take place over time. So what arguments have got through to the public since Mr Cameron became leader? His awareness ratings are high. Good start. He is seen as a new and different kind of leader. Fine. They know that he thinks the environment is an important issue. Good. But ask an average member of the public to name a Tory policy and I guarantee he will struggle — because Mr Cameron is struggling. Where he has been forced to make decisions — over Europe for example — he has gone to the right. But when it comes to putting policy flesh on strategic bones, all would seem to be in abeyance.
As for the polls, given what Mr Blair has been through of late, the shock is not that the Tories are ahead, but that Labour’s ratings have not hit the floor. I can remember when we were 29 points ahead in a newspaper poll. Now, that’s what I call a lead.
In recent months all the public have heard about Mr Blair is that his authority is waning, his MPs want him out, some have plotted to get him out and others just don’t want to be seen near the scene of the crime.
Some may have picked up on a deputy leadership contest in which candidates are either looking backwards or inwards but saying little that is aimed at the public.
Worst of all, the public have been treated to a drip, drip commentary of leaks about the police investigation into so-called cash for honours that seems designed either to put the Prime Minister in the worst possible light — an odd thing for the police to want to do — or to pressurise the Crown Prosecution Service into bringing charges. Either way, the impact upon the public debate has been bad for Labour, with political commentators on TV night after night saying how awful things are; and yet, in the polls, Labour are not far behind the Tories.
Although the public may think that politicians are prone to spinning a line, they also know that our media do the same and now, it would seem, so do the police. So they tend to make their own judgments based in large part on their own lives. Most have jobs and increased spending power. Most like where they live. Most have some direct experience of increased investment going into public services. Most know that the culture of negativity dominant in our media does not represent the reality of their own lives.
There is a danger for Mr Cameron that he is seen only as an extension of that culture rather than as someone capable of leading the country. Calling for Mr Blair to resign was a mistake. In opposition, Mr Blair never called for resignations unless he thought that they could happen. What led Mr Cameron to do this? The news that Mr Blair had been seen by the police again. It added nothing of substance. He made the call not because it was the right thing to do, but because he thought it was what the public wanted to hear. Wrong call.
He is right to try to stay in the centre. He is wrong to act as a mere pundit, an upmarket Alex Salmond. His challenge now is to offer an alternative to Labour based on hard policy and difficult decisions. Otherwise, he faces the danger that the public’s desire for change will be met not by him but by Gordon Brown, who will be able to offer both change and continuity.
Mr Blair may be seeking a suitable means by which to leave the stage. Mr Cameron already looks like a man in search of an encore, and he is barely at the end of his first act.
Alastair Campbell was director of communications and strategy at 10 Downing Street, 2001-03
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Well put. The Labour party and this country will miss Tony Blair after he leaves office. PMQs will never be the same again -except - ofcourse for Cameron shouting at the top of his voice. But, come to think of it - his party might tire of his rantings too.Substance old boy -that's what's required.
Phil, Waltham Abbey,
Lead from the centre? Doesn't anybody believe in collecting data, thinking about it and drawing the logical conclusion?
Brian Gilbert, HAMPTON, Middx
As I recall it, Mr Cameron called on Mr Blair to stand down the day before it was announced that the police had interviewed the latter for a second time in the normal course of their duty. Bit dodgy, Mr Campbell. Again.
David Moss, London, UK
If you read this Mr Cameron, bide your time. Your day will come.
R, Glasgow,
Gosh, yes. David Cameron MUST listen to Alastair Campbell. After all, just think of all the really good advice that Alastair gave to Tony Blair. Oops!
On second thoughts, Mr Cameron, don't listen to Alastair. Unless you want to end up like our Tone...
Martin, Shropshire, UK
In saying in the final paragraph....Mr Blair may be seeking a suitable means by which to leave the stage....Ali-C is indicating that so far Tony Blair has been unable to find one.
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With yet another war coming up to the boil in the Middle-East, it seems that Labour's hopes of changing their Leader will have to be moved to the right very shortly.
Thus when the time finally comes so that Tony Blair can go, Gordon Brown will be probably long-past his sell-by date to the UK electorate anyway.
Michael Blatchford, Bath, UK
Mr Campbell makes some very good and valid points about David Cameron. Given all the new sleaze and incompetence that comes out daily about the Labour government, I also find it hard to believe why the Tories haven't capitalised on this. Unless its a very clever but risky strategy to wait until few months before an election and then slam dunk New Labour into the long grass, David Cameron comes over as a light weight. There is more than enough ammunition for him to keep Blair's head beneath the parapet but apart from the odd punch here or there he fails to land any knock out blows. Blair was a very clever debater before he came into power and conned the public in a way never seen before and now Cameron with his ammunition should be wrong footing Blair at every turn and keeping him on the defensive. Wake up David, take no prisoners otherwise you'll see Brown or god knows what other boy wonders that New Labour will offer up residing at No 10.
Mike, Denia, Spain
Times must be desperate to pay this charlatan for this nonsense
BigNobodaddy, First left after Star 5, Paradise
I agree with Alistar Campbell, the fact that the Tories are not way ahead of Labour at this point should be a very great concern to them. The problem is that while I won't vote Labour (I never have, so Labour shouldn't worry), I won't be voting Conservative, on current form, either (and, yes, I used to during the Thatcher years so presumably the Tories should worry). The reason is that society & circumstances have moved on and the Tories are Euro Sceptic and I'm a Europhile - I always was. Also, the Tories didn't give a lead against the Iraq war and don't inspire with any kind of vision either. And David Cameron seems all style and no substance, just like Tony Blair, but if people want a change why vote for the samething? If only they'd picked a real human like Ken Clarke someone with bags of experience & who seems to have long standing well thought out views.
Cirep G Nol, London,
I have no doubt in my mind that Cameron will win the next election. While he's out smiling for cameras and being Mr. Nice Guy on Jonathon Ross, everyone in labour looks as though they're staying on just to get to claim their beautifully orchestrated pension scheme. I sincerely hope Cameron doesn't follow Blair's footsteps by way of winning over the public with likeability and PR and then once in office, never listening to a word anyone says unless they speak with a Texan accent. I'm beginning to think if i had a southern drawl and wore a cowboy hat, Prescott and Blair would be more inclined to listen to my arguments on road tax, iraq and gun crime.
ade, Canary, Wharf
What self serving tosh. The truth is that the reason Dave might be elected is that he seems nice enough and is not New Labour. In truth the last ten years have been a missed oppotunity for the UK. For sure in an era of globally low interest rates and stability the wheels have not come off the economy which is a first for Labour but despite 10 years at the top the Prime Minister has no legacy to speak of at all. All the conservatives need to do is replicate the Labour in opposition strategy: Sit tight, sound reasonable and commit to nothing and let voter disatisfaction and goverment in-fighting do the rest.
James, London,
"Where he has been forced to make decisions over Europe for example he has gone to the right."
The article went down hill from here. Please explain to disillusioned Tory Eurosceptics in what way Cameron has "gone to the right" over Europe ?
Roland Smith, Amersham, UK
Dont forget Tories backed the war in Iraq. Also they went to war in the Falklands, now dont say that is British soil this is along way away from Britian and we have no right to claim it as our own.
Numpty, Hastings, England
Alastair Campbell is right about this. Cameron can't find new ground in the middle because Blair already owns it - and on the left, and on the right. In fact even now when by any standards the PM should be flat on his back from the attacks and pressure of his present political and personal position, he's actually the Policy- A- Day man. If he's not careful there will be none left even for Gordon Brown to excite us with, much less the vacuous Cameron! But then some of us do realise that we are about to lose the best leader the country has had for decades. By the way, Mr Campbell, I've been accused of being you in my various comment entries (Cif etc) as BlairSupporter. Strange how people think there are only a handful of us who still rate Tony Blair. For me, he's a hero. I'm proud of him and he makes ME proud to be British. I even have a blog set up to support him - Keep Tony Blair For PM. Yes, I know .... but until he's gone, I shall continue to put on record my support for THIS PM.
BlairSupporter, London, UK
Arguably the lack of policy committments at this stage (or in deed any) of Parliament is always an issue. It is a lot easier to show fault in something that exists as opposed to something that does not. Better to have a 'tried and tested' set of committments that can be debated in parliament as opposed to a selection of obscure media stunts re: The slanty tree, the bike ride, etc. Therefore fact must dictate that Cameron is something of a political non-entity at the moment.
The question raised by the above argument is; what does Mr Brown have to offer? Campbell uses the vaccuous and paradoxical statement of "both Change and continuity" which I assume is meant to invoke a feeling of progress and security, people do not want that, they want change. Mr Cameron is young, charismatic and ambitious, much like Blair in '97. Mr Brown is a capable politician and has proven his credentials as such but he needs to step into the public arena and advocate a third way and set himself apart.
James, London, England
A brilliant revelation of how most people view government and its policy. Mr Campbell knows a thing or two about what makes a successful government, therefoe his views should be taken seriously. Take Iraq war and the perceived close links with Mr Bush out of the equation, both Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, his able and effective Chancellor, have made Britain a much better place to live in and do business. Being a major player in this achivement Gordon Brown has the experience to continue reforming and renewing Britain to ensure it remains a leading nation and to make the necessary change to avoid mistakes made by this government in the past ten years. His immense intellect and economic management prowess combined with integrity and honesty are the necessary ingredients that make a modern day political leader. Not soundbites and flash.
O.T., Dalgety Bay, Britain
Sir, I am deeply troubled by the idea of an "upmarket Alex Salmond". You might as well call Mr Cameron a "vintage alcopop" - he has the sweetness to appeal to unsophisticated palates, but also the power to inflict a nasty hangover.
Kirk Elder, Peebles, Scotland
Cameron/Osborne seem a winning combination for top billing
G Brown on the wane, economy seen to be a big debt issue
Tories in on the first election
Brian Charles Seals, Scarborough,Yorkshire,
Just when you think its safe to go out again Campbell re-appears. How decent Labour members must cringe!
He is suffering from dillusions if he thinks people are happy with Labour and or are interested in his warped veiw of things.
Campbell's part in promoting the war (and the way he went about it) has not been forgotten. Lets see him doing some charitable work for the injuried service men and women or for the children of the deceased.
Elizabeth, Harrgate, England
"Where he has been forced to make decisions over Europe for example he has gone to the right."
The article went down hill from here.
Please explain to disillusioned Tory Eurosceptics in what way Cameron has "gone to the right" over Europe ?
Roland Smith, Amersham, UK
Well,well, well...coming from Alastair Campbell, David Cameron should actually do the opposite of what has been suggested, if he wants to avoid the fate of Mr. Blair.
Michle, London, UK
A very rose tinted view - which of course it was always going to be. The lack of policy announcements at this stage of Parliament is not necessary an issue. If Mr Cameron still has nothing to say in 12 -18 months, then it will be an issue. As for Mr Campbell's comments suggesting that the police are out to portray the PM in a bad light, (I think they call this smear tactics, Mr Cambell, a term, I believe, you are familiar with) isn't Mr Cambell doing exactly the same to the police in making the suggestion in the first place?
Finally, Gordon Brown as "both Change and continuity" - sorry that want wash either. Did Mr Brown vote for war in Iraq, increase taxes, block public services reform, and participate fully in the Blair years, or am I missing something here?
Kevin Egan, Chelmsford, England
Cameron is not capable of creating policies his background is PR and SPIN.He can only hope that his Old Etonian backroom boys can scupper together some policies.The big one he dare not mention is his future policy on Europe.When he dares he will be "Dead in the Water".
bill Rees, Truro, UK
New Labour, New Britain was more than a slogan, was it? Tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime - more than a slogan? By a Downing Street policy review admission, nine out ot fen crimes today go unreported or unpunished. Purer than pure - more than a slogan? Tell that to the Blair aides who anxiously peer from behind the curtains, waiting for an inspector to call - again.
Not a word of advice to David Cameron about the need to ignore the reassuring hand of history on his shoulder. Not a word of advice to David Cameron about the need to avoid disastrous forays into other countries. In fact, not a word about Iraq. Is Alastair Campbell, like his brilliant Prime Minister, equally in denial over the foreign policy disaster that brought death, suffering and chaos to that benighted land? Or does he, like his brilliant Prime Minister, today inhabit a parallel universe?
Hello!, Mr Campbell? HELLO!?
Ray Burke, Stockport, England
Come up with some good ideas as soon as you can Dave - Labour really needs to hi-jack them as usual.
Tom Livingston, Winchester, England
It makes you wonder why Mr Campbell, a staunch new Labourite to put it mildly, is being so kind as to give this advice to David Cameron!
To say that Blair called for resignations only if he thought they could happen (implying that he would not have called for someone who should resign to do so if he thought he was well protected) is surely a sign of prefering political expediency to one's own moral judgment, even if that judgment is sometimes flawed.
Mr Campbell may well remember when Labour was 29 points ahead in the polls (I'm not sure this takes account of the well known Tory-shy factor) but perhaps a bit of expectation management will be better for Cameron in the long run, anyway.
Philip Whittington, Worcester Park, UK
Even in a newspaper article, Campbell just cannot stop spinning. Perhaps the article should have finished, "This was a party political broadcast for the Labour party". Why would Cameron listen to advice from someone who says "we" when he talks about Labour. Keep doing what you're doing Dave, you've obviously got Campbell rattled.
Toby, London,
Sir/Madam:
David Cameron has to take a clear stand on Islamofacism as well. It is better to place clear policies before the public instead of trying to look good to all sections.
Regards,
Krishna R. Kumar, Udupi, India