Robert Skidelsky
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The Litvinenko affair gives a human dimension to what we in the West find most disturbing about modern Russia. It leaves the impression of rogue elements of the Russian State murdering enemies with impunity, at home and abroad. Add to this Andrei Lugovoy’s surreal claim that MI6 had a hand in the murder and Russia’s use of its “energy weapon” to bully its neighbours and it is as if the Cold War never ended.
How Russians see the end of the Cold War is actually a good place to start to understand the muscle-flexing of Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Two explanations are popular in Moscow. Liberals argue that the Russian people voluntarily renounced their oppressive, incompetent system, but then the West trampled all over them, claiming victors’ rights over large swaths of former Soviet territory. Conservatives, however, acknowledge that the USSR lost the Cold War – due to Mikhail Gorbachev’s “stab in the back” – but want a replay, this time with the windfall from Russia’s oil wealth.
These two explanations for the end of the Cold War have given rise to two influential doctrines – Anatoly Chubais’s “liberal empire” and Vladislav Surkov’s “sovereign democracy” – that form the ideological basis of Russian foreign policy. Chubais, architect of Boris Yeltsin’s victory in the 1996 presidential election, is head of the electricity monopoly UES; Surkov is deputy head of Mr Putin’s Presidential Administration. What is striking is the similarity of vision between a leading spokesman of “liberal” Russia and the Kremlin’s chief political manager.
Chubais’s theory of a “liberal empire”, first aired in a speech in 2003, was clearly influenced by the debates in Washington about invading Afghanistan and Iraq. In 1991, Chubais claimed, “the greatest empire of all time ceased to exist”. Russia should now construct a “liberal empire” of its own from the pieces of the old Soviet Union.
While respecting its neighbours’ “inviolability of borders and territorial integrity”, Russia’s “mission” should be to promote its culture and protect Russian populations in its “neighbourhood”; establish a dominant position in their trade and business; and guarantee their “freedom and democracy”. Only through “liberal empire”, Chubais argued, “can Russia occupy its natural place alongside the United States, the European Union and Japan, the place designated for it by history”.
Surkov’s phrase “sovereign democracy” dates from a speech in 2005. By democracy, he does not mean Western democracy with its “artificial checks and balances” but something more like “independence”, particularly independence from America. Surkov explains Russia’s claim to “sovereignty” as follows: “For 500 years [Russia] was a modern state. It made history and was not made by it”. Some states, it turns out, are more “sovereign” than others. “We differ strongly,” Surkov says, “from Slovaks, Baltic nations and even Ukrainians – they had no state system.”
Surkov’s world view points to the same conclusion as Chubais’s. Russia is one of the world’s natural “great powers”. Greatness is defined by sovereignty. Sovereignty is conferred by history, geography, and the will to power. Some countries are destined to be sovereign, others to be subjects.
Several factors have fed into the new Russian ideology of greatness. One, of course, is its refusal to accept that the Cold War ended in a Russian defeat. It may have ended in an ideological defeat, but geopolitics rises above ideology. A second is the perception that the “West does not love us”. Gorbachev had hoped to “join the West” but was repudiated, so Russia must carve out for itself a separate Eurasian destiny. A third is the realisation of Russia’s potential as an “energy superpower” playing off Europe against China. Russia has also tapped into that Western current of thinking which holds that nation states are doomed – the inevitable victims of a takeover by a US-led global empire or by regional empires.
However, the Chubais-Surkov doctrine has severe problems. Russia’s claim to be protector of the rights and interests of all the Russians of the old Soviet Union is incompatible with respect for the inviolability of its neighbours’ borders. Like the implicit threat to dislodge the US from its new positions in the Caucasus and Central Asia, it carries the seeds of dangerous conflict. This is particularly so in the light of Putin’s military doctrine that all postSoviet airspace may be subjected to “preventive” attack by Russia.
Nor is Russia a plausible guarantor of “freedom and democracy” in its near abroad. Not only is it neither liberal nor democratic now, but it won’t be able to expunge the memory of centuries of autocratic, then totalitarian, rule over the space it now reclaims. Finally, both “liberal empire” and “sovereign democracy” conflict with Russia’s ostentatious commitment to the UN Charter based on the idea of equal sovereignty.
For all its cosmetic adaptation to reality, Russian thought on how to restore national pride remains obstinately stuck in the grooves of tsarist and Soviet strategic thinking. Russian policy-makers cannot yet contemplate a genuinely different future – or at least find a way of talking about it that does not simply echo the past. Of Russia it can be said, as Dean Acheson said of Britain in 1961: “It has lost an empire, but has not yet found a role.” Its moment of truth still lies ahead.
Lord Skidelsky is a columnist for the Russian newspaper Vedomosti
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It should be clear to everyone now that a new cold war has started, and that it is not based on a communist v democracy ideological campaign, but simple geo-political advantage. if we want to preserve our freedoms it should also be clear that Britains best interests are served by alliance with America, as it is the only power capable of reining in Russia - The EU is run by appeasers who would happily sell the Baltic republics for an extra year or two of apparent peace.
We need to rebuild our military and run a foreign policy geared to our interests.
Neil Murphy, cromer,
I dont know anything about Russia, but I hope they retain their distinctive personality as a contrast to general American domination. We need as much balance to America as possible. That is not to decry America but to accept the realities of global power arrangements. I think they should be wary of their ex-pat oligarchs and use the FSB to ensure peoples loyalties in a globalising world. It is prosperity that people want, not some media-generated idea of freedom, but that prosperity needs to be for everyone and in a country as large as expanded Russia that is a big problem.
Henry Percy, London, UK
It's very disappointing that Russia is choosing its current direction. The world has enough crazy leaders, it would just be helpful if Russia could be a voice of reason. Instead it chooses to take offense where none was intended or even given. It's acting the bully when there is no need. If the government is concerned about Russian minorities in the former republics, its current actions can only increase animosity and probably generate a backlash against those minorities.
J Baustian, San Diego, California
The relations between England and Russia were not always so controversial, the close relationship between both countries in times of Nicholas II was unique in the history of both powers. Tsar Nicholas II of Russia, was a first cousin of George V. When the revolution of 1917 toppled the Russian monarchy, King George asked his ministers to ensure that the Tsar and his family be saved and brought to Britain for their safety. Worsening conditions for the British people, and fears that revolution might come to the British Isles, led King George to develop an atmosphere of austerity around him, and he reversed himself, thinking that the presence of the Romanov might seem inappropriate under the circumstances. Despite the later claims of Lord Mountbatten that Lloyd George, was opposed to the rescue of the Romanov, records of the King's private secretary, Lord Stamfordham, suggest that he did it against the advice of Lloyd George, who is often wrongly blamed for the loss of the Romanov.
wetzvonken, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Don't believe these "experts". They know nothing about modern Russia! Most articles in british and american newspapers tell the lie. Welcome to Russia - we will show the real country!!
Renat, Moscow, Russia
What is the reason for anti Russian hysteria?
Wal, Northampton,
Delusional is the british media. Not on a single occasion I have read here anything even remotely realistic about Russia. Mostly hatred and fear, bordering paranoia. The Russian government was not involved in the bizarre murder. There is no motive. The victim was not, by any measure, an important player. Admit, you had not heard his name before the crime. Meaning, the "sponsor" is elsewhere, maybe in London. Maybe it is better to concentrate on finding him. For your own good. But, yes, it is so much easier to point finger at an old enemy.
Abzats, Houston, TX
Leave Russia alone. Sort out yourself first!
Britain is an increasing embarrassment on the international stage. This is the country that would seek to take a moral high tone with, in this case, Russia, ignoring the fact that it not only lacks any military clout or diplomatic presence to obtain the desired result. Great Britain ! the nation that effectively surrendered to the IRA; lets terror suspects wander off from control orders never to be seen again; has a tin-pot overstretched navy whose personnel surrender at the drop of a hat to Iranian gun boats; participates in an illegal, unnecessary war in Iraq that is even against the national interests of the UK itself; has a a prime minister who is completely discredited - and now a foreign office supporting the DPPs request for the extradition of a Russian citizen from Russia when the UK has been a safe haven for countless Russian criminals and Chechen terrorists, none of whom were extradited on the Russian Federations request.
Rashid, London, UK
If Russians like Surkov think that Russian identity and greatness is strictly political and economic then they are not true Russians. Is not part of the essential greatness of Russia cultural? Is not the 97 year Soviet experiment an exercise in horror utterly unworthy of any nation? Surkov and company are mere brutes - Dostoevsky predicted them and he would simply tell us "I told you so?" Who is the greater Russian - Surkov or Dostoevsky?
Brigid Elson, Toronto, Canada
Leave Russia alone. Sort yourself first.
Britain is an increasing embarrassment on the international stage. This is the country that would seek to take a moral high tone with, in this case, Russia, ignoring the fact that it not only lacks any military clout or diplomatic presence to obtain the desired result. Great Britain ! the nation that effectively surrendered to the IRA; lets terror suspects wander off from control orders never to be seen again; has a tin-pot overstretched navy whose personnel surrender at the drop of a hat to Iranian gun boats; participates in an illegal, unnecessary war in Iraq that is even against the national interests of the UK itself; has a a prime minister who is completely discredited - and now a foreign office supporting the DPPs request for the extradition of a Russian citizen from Russia when the UK has been a safe haven for countless Russian criminals and Chechen terrorists, none of whom were extradited on the Russian Federations requests.
Rashid, London, UK
The rising Russian nationalism is bound to induce a nationalist reaction among the other nationalities of today Russian Federation: Tatars, Baskirs, Caucasus peoples, etc., etc. One must not forget that Russia is still a precarious enormous collection of nationalities, where the dominance of a 'master-race' is the surest receipt for future fragmentation. Putin's Russia is just preparing itself for such a scenario.
forge valley, london,
Russians seem to have a wildly optimistic view of themselves.
Their population is declining by 1/2% per year with those 65 and older greatly outnumbering those 14 and younger.
Their economy is more third world relying mostly on extractive industry and raw material exports rather than the
advanced manufacturing and knowledge base industry of the real 'world powers'.
Their 'Great Power' status relies on a Cold War atomic arsenal that is increasingly irrelevant to modern military situations and their army, navy and air force are no longer taken seriously by anyone.
Oil exports and a residual UN veto are the only things that distinguish Russia from a Brazil or Pakistan.
Scott Angell, Richmond, Virginia
I'm reminded that for centuries Moscow was itself a subject state. It was only when it learnt the niceties of diplomatic foreign policy, inviting its neighbours into treaties which were obviously to their benefit and in which the Muscovites could be trusted, that it managed to throw off the Tartar yoke and become a sovereign state.
There may be a lesson in there somewhere.
Ian Kemmish, Biggleswade, UK
Putin is delusional and making Russia an international laughing-stock.
Foster, NYC, USA
"The question is, where will be Putin's first Sudetenland? "George" and "Marco" are yet more of these mysterious pro-Putin residents of Western countries who populate these HYS columns. Are they real?"
About as real or mysterious as Robert C, London. The purpose of these HYS columns is to allow all shades of opinion on a topic not just those which are supportive of the writer. Or, Robert, do you seriously believe that Marco and George must be agents in the pay of the Kremlin?
Steve, Sutton Coldfield,
Apart from the Stalin era, what was so 'utterly horrible' about the Soviet Union? It was probably the most humane society in history with the best educational system in the world, where the children were taught to do good and live in peace. There was no violence or moronic shows on TV. Individuals were rated by their true merits and intelligence, not by the amount of money in their pockets. Money was nothing. It'll be a surprise to you to learn what life really was in the USSR. Just stop watching those idiotic James Bond films.
Pavel, Rostov, Russia
You are right on target, Mr. Skidelsky. The current state of Russia sounds very similar to that of the Weimar Republic and Mr. Putin is sounding the "we were betrayed" note (in reference to losing the Cold War) that that Hitler did as well (on blaming Germany's ills on the Versailles Treaty).
Joseph Clark, North Bergen, New Jersey
The question is, where will be Putin's first Sudetenland? "George" and "Marco" are yet more of these mysterious pro-Putin residents of Western countries who populate these HYS columns. Are they real?
Robert C, London , UK
Robert Skidelsky is not only misinformed... sounds like a piece from the McCarthy era...
I just wonder... how does he know that Andrei Lugovoy's claim is surreal about MI6 had a hand in the murder???
If The Times wishes to remain a quality paper...might want ot ignore propaganda pieces like this... It is embarassing.
George, San Francisco, USA
Having lived in the CCCP and modern Russia,the views expressed in this column need a reality check. The common man/ woman on the street in Russia is clear that Reagan sold them a dream and then reneged on it. 'Ni Chivoy' is their philosophy and Bush & Blair has given them a heaven sent opportunity and they are using their oil&gas resources at $60/- plus to get even!!They are laughing at the discomfiture of the west,they are watching China like hawks and will do business at their terms.Take it or lump it is their credo today and seek resurgence as a nation under Putin.They are determined to be back as a geopolitical power and are acutely aware that the centre of gravity in world economics has shifted to Asia.Note their cosying up with India and the Arab world.A gas cartel on the lines of OPEC is their focus with Russia at the nerve centre,Military options are being provided to which ever nation seeks it on the lines of the French, cold cash no ideology! The west needs a rethink!!
capt. devindra sethi, new delhi, INDIA
Meh.
Another misinformed Times columnist but with pretensions to having some insights.
ib, Moscow, Russia
As you say, it's time is still to come. Until then, let it find its way.
Alice, Moscow,
I do not see anything wrong with Russia trying to protect Russian people in its vicinity and indeed much to commend it. Similarly I think Russia should indeed "dislodge the US from its new positions in the Caucasus and Central Asia" and has practically done so in Central Asia already. If nothing else, Russia recognises that American interference usually for selfish interests is always counter-productive. Invariably the American public's short attention-span, thirst for quick results and utter ignorance of life beyond America's borders leads to American withdrawal leaving an environmental, human and political mess behind (think Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and Al Qaida and the numerous Islamic warfare practically everywhere. When Robert Skidelsky talks about "we in the West" he surely means Americans or possibly the Wall Street financiers and media -owners within it. I find very few French, Germans, Italians,Spanish etc. who share his opinion.
Marco, London, UK
"Finally, both âliberal empireâ and âsovereign democracyâ conflict with Russiaâs ostentatious commitment to the UN Charter based on the idea of equal sovereignty."
Why pick on Russia? The commitment of many national governments to the UN Charter has been seriously suspect for years. Decades in fact, because there's no enforcement mechanism - especially against the five permanent members of the UN Security Council.
euroscot, Glasgow,