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At last weekend’s European summit Tony Blair sent a message that has gone largely unnoticed – that armchair economists are wrong: orthodox incentives don’t always matter. On the eve of his departure the former Prime Minister had no conventional motive to cut a good deal in Brussels. A good settlement would not have increased his power, and a bad one would not have lessened his chances of staying in office.
Instead, his motives were patriotism, self-respect, a sense of how a prime minister should behave. And everybody seems to accept this. None of Mr Blair’s many critics claims that he would have got a good deal if only he’d had stronger incentives.
This shows a fact often lost on simplistic economists. People are not always driven by what the philosopher Alasdair MacIntyre called the goods of effectiveness – money, power, fame. Often, altruism or a sense of vocation (MacIntyre's goods of excellence) are enough.
Take the NHS. It is remarkable just how well it works, given that it is, as Patricia Hewitt, the former Health Secretary, said recently, even more centralised than the Cuban economy. Why does it do so well? Because doctors, nurses and (yes) managers are partly driven by what the LSE’s Julian Le Grand calls “knightly motives”.
Indeed, in some cases, conventional incentives can backfire. If you give a fund manager big incentives to hit particular targets, he might take absurd risks if he fears falling short of them.
A recent paper by Marco Daniele Paserman, of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, shows that in women’s grand slam tennis tournaments, two fifths of the most important points end in unforced errors. Great golfers can miss important putts; footballers miss important penalties. People “choke” under pressure. Psychologists call it the Yerkes-Dodson law – performance worsens when incentives are high.
Economists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have confirmed this with some cunning experiments. They got Indian villagers to play some children’s games; Simon Says, throwing balls at targets and the like. They found that if they offered the villagers big money – a month’s wages – for doing well, their performance deteriorated. They became overmotivated. We should therefore be worried by Gordon Brown’s promise to try his utmost.
These are not the only ways in which incentives can go wrong. Steve Levitt, the author of Freakonomics, points to some kindergartens in Haifa, Israel. They had a problem with parents being late to pick up their toddlers. So they fined latecomers. And the numbers of them subsequently rose.
What happened? The same thing that researchers in New Zealand discovered when they found that two fifths of blood donors said they would stop giving blood if they were offered payments.
It’s something pointed out 50 years ago by the sociologist Richard Titmuss – financial incentives can be counterproductive if they crowd out altruistic motives. Parents picked up their children on time out of consideration to the kindergarten teachers, but when fines were introduced they saw them as a charge for looking after their children.
In other cases incentives simply conflict. A rise in wages encourages people to work longer. But it also means that they need to work less to pay the bills. That encourages them to work less.
These aren’t merely textbook examples. Researchers at the Institute for Fiscal Studies have estimated that, although working tax credits encouraged more people to work in general, they discouraged mothers in couples from working.
Though these examples show that incentives don’t always work, that does not mean that orthodox economics is wrong. Certainly, it is usually sensible to suppose that people are selfish. When Adam Smith said that it is not to the benevolence of the butcher, baker and brewer that we owe our dinner, but to self-interest, that was what he meant.
Instead, it shows that we should remember the caveat attached to orthodox economics. Yes, incentives matter at the margin. But the margin needn’t be particularly wide. And many people aren’t on it.
This matters. First, it means changes in prices can have small effects. A recent paper by economists at the University of Warwick suggests that the weak dollar will do little to reduce America’s huge trade deficit. This is because higher import prices and lower export prices don’t change trade volumes very much.
Secondly, supporters of free markets (of whom I'm one) forget that most people aren’t on the margin. The national minimum wage demonstrates this. Because it has destroyed fewer jobs than some predicted, its supporters have been able to claim that it works. In fact, if you look carefully, the minimum wage has led to small cuts in employment and hours. That confirms both parts of proper economics. Yes, incentives matter: the incentive to employ people has weakened. But they matter only at the margin: the effect on jobs and hours has been small.
Thirdly, it means there are dangers in public sector reform. Reforms that weaken the “knightly motives” of doctors and teachers may prove counterproductive.
Talk of incentives is often nakedly political. Chief executives need multimillion pound pay packets as an incentive to do a good job? Phooey. They get big money because they can – because they have the power to take money off shareholders and workers.
Married couples should have tax incentives to stay together? Sure, tax breaks will cause a few to get or stay married who otherwise wouldn’t. But mainly, such tax breaks would be a transfer from single people to married ones.
There’s more to motivation than many would have us believe.
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Jon, Winchester:
"With all my worldly goods I thee endow".
In other words, "his" stuff and "her" stuff becomes "our" stuff. If you're trying to stake a stronger claim on the property that you brought to the marriage, or the salary that you earned whilst in the marriage, you don't have a marriage - you have a commercial arrangement for sex and housekeeping.
Sam, Chicago, USA
I've just retired after over 30 years in teaching and school management.
I found that the more people looked over my shoulder and checked up on my work the less in control of it, and the less motivated. I became. This most certainly lead to a decline in the standard of my work. Not quite what the government intended.
Malcolm Williamson, Welwyn Garden City, UK
If divorce can cost me £60,000, what incentive is any government going to offer to induce me to marry again?
Such ideas just take money from most people and give it to people who (can) already have two incomes. They do not compete with the disincentives that the divorce system provides.
If you really want to encourage marriage, change the divorce system to give a fair distribution of assets. At present, I have a strong disincentive to marry, and once married my wife would now have a £60,000 incentive to divorce (or behave badly and force me to divorce her).
Jon, Winchester, UK
Motivation is a function of facility, which is a function of structure. Money lubricates but it isnât necessarily focal. This present verbal nonsense about incentives, accompanying these huge money payments to key personnel, is to disguise the obvious fact that they are getting the money because it is available; and they might start being awkwardly critical about the background unless suitably appeased.
Henry Percy, London, UK
The equation is simple: when tax, legislation and bureaucracy increase, then neighbourliness, charity and social cohesion decrease. Politically motivated, redistributive socialism is self-defeating.
Peter, Oxford, UK
One glaring error from the first paragraph; you seem to have forgotten the biggest incentive Blair had for cutting a good deal - getting a plum job in Brussels. I would argue that his motives were more influenced by self interest (or more specifically how to pay the mortgage interest), rather than anything altruistic.
Jon Burgess, Douglas, Isle of Man
But the knightly virtues can make them self-righteous, complacent, aloof and wrong. Ms Hewitt herself was a classic example, and so, I'm afraid, are many in the medical / teaching professions. Just as well for them to know who is paying the piper too.
Philippa Pirie, London, England
As a City lawyer, I agree totally. We now get these whopping salaries which are designed to keep up sitting here all night and not leave firms. Most lawyers I know would be happier to receive half the pay, do a good day's work and finish at 6pm each night (ie. about 6 hours earlier than they would otherwise finish). This situation, oddly enough, has made a lot of people in the profession pretty miserable and dissatisfied with life. When a profession becomes rooted in greed, unhappiness and loss of real productivity is the inevitable result.
Steve, London, UK
It's good to read a piece that goes beyond received wisdom and looks at what's really happening rather than the author trying to justify his own dogma with carefully selected facts.
If only government ministers could try the same approach.
David Rothwell, Brighton,
All true, but will my line manger believe this? It's exactly how I feel it. Since we have income target systems at our university, my performance has deteriorated, and I have asked for several raises. I no longer feel like doing things that don't pay, and I feel that if I don't leave soon, my entire intrinsic motivation for being an academic will have disappeared.
Great for my pay, but not happy.
stephane, Birmingham,
"Take the NHS. It is remarkable just how well it works"
Anyone who utters this phrase - in any context - is either demented (and untreated due to NHS budget problems) or has never experienced healthcare that "works".
With all due respect to the doctors, nurses and other staff who work in a healthcare system that is, by any measure, dreadful, I must set out some parameters for a healthcare system that "works": Patients are seen by doctors on the first day they feel ill-enough to require a doctor; patients who need surgery or in-patient treatment receive it as soon as it is convenient for the patient; hospitals and other medical facilities are modern, comfortable, comforting and spotlessly clean and; all who visit medical establishments are treated with courtesy and respect.
Take these simple requirements, toss out the nonsense that the government currently uses to 'measure' the NHS and you will see how far Britain is from having a health service "that works".
John Blackley, Austin, TX, USA
This article is so true. I am a doctor, and when I started out in medicine, no one even knew what their salary would be was until their first pay packet - we were doing the job because we desperately wanted to do it. There was such a high level of professional duty attached - we never claimed overtime when staying late because we were saving lives and that was what it was all about. The problem is that the government simply did not believe that doctors worked these hours without some pay off. Now, by changing things so we are paid hour by hour, they can see that they were wrong, hence the increases in pay that have resulted. Moreover, that culture of goodwill and duty may have been lost forever.
sarah, york, uk
I have seen many examples of this in different "industries" in the private sector from manual labour to banking, IT staff and others with a strong ethos.
McGregors "Theory Y" rules !
Could we get a little more professionalism into todays corporate management in the same way ?
James, Fife, GB
Great article. Economics and psychology are really the same subject, and whilst to a first approximation people do try to maximise their money, there is far more to economic behaviour than that.
Malcolm McLean, Bradford, UK
I think most public service professionals are the same. Rely on their professionalism and you will get a high standard of service. Force them to meet and document hundreds of detailed specifications and you will get what you monitor, no more and no less. This will often be a worse deal than you started out with.
Jamie, Bolton, UK