Download 'Too Hot', an exclusive Specials track from iTunes
President Musharraf is in a bind. Amid the bloody devastation caused by his decision to storm the Red Mosque in Islamabad, he will be seeking desperately to salvage his reputation. The badly battered military ruler of Pakistan needs to be seen as a bastion against extremism if he is to win support from his Western allies, especially the United States.
But Musharraf’s actions in power have set Pakistan dangerously off course. The appeasement policies of successive regimes – cultivating Islamist groups to shore up their fragile legitimacy – have bedevilled the country. It now faces its worst crisis since the secession of Bangladesh in 1971.
Musharraf’s confused handling of the Red Mosque crisis is likely to be central to his own demise. First, he laid siege to it and issued an ultimatum to the radicals inside “to surrender or die”. Then he suddenly announced he was ready to negotiate to save hundreds of women and children held hostage inside the mosque. However, the mediators in these negotiations were hardly neutral players: Musharraf turned for help to the Pakistani Ulema Council, a private body of religious scholars that last month announced a special award for Osama bin Laden in retaliation against the decision to knight Salman Rushdie.
Overseeing their efforts was Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, head of the pro-government party, the Pakistan Muslim League. He is known for agreeing to demands by Islamic religious parties last year to dilute legislation that would have amended religious laws discriminating against women.
Not surprisingly, fears resurfaced that Musharraf was poised once again to appease Muslim extremists. Nor would these concerns be misplaced. Since entering into a series of controversial peace agreements with tribal militants in the border areas of North and South Waziristan in 2005-06, Musharraf has turned a blind eye to the Islamist activities. Stern warnings from the United States of the risk that appeasement posed to Afghanistan went unheeded. So too did alarm bells inside Pakistan announcing “creeping Talebanisation”.
It was just a matter of time before Islamic radicals, emboldened by this apparent lack of resolve, tried their hand at bringing vigilante justice to the streets of the capital. Indeed, it was just such an attempt that brought the Red Mosque and its militants into headlong confrontation with Musharraf. In so doing they finally breached the cordial relations between the Red Mosque and Pakistan’s military high command, which date back to the 1980s.
Pakistan’s military ruler at that time, General Zia ul-Haq, was instrumental in forging these ties. He approved the expansion of the Red Mosque, in the heart of the capital, and entrusted its administration to Maulana Abdullah, an obscure hardline cleric from the Deobandi sect. In return Abdullah promised to enlist recruits for the jihad against Soviet troops in Afghanistan.
Soon the mosque, along with its two madrassas, emerged as the first port of call for jihadi groups, notably al-Qaeda. Through much of the 1990s the Red Mosque also enjoyed the patronage of the country’s premier intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Its headquarters are located a stone’s throw away from the mosque, which served as a convenient meeting point for ISI members.
The events of 9/11 ruptured this cosy arrangement. Musharraf’s decision to launch a military operation against the Taleban in the tribal areas incurred the wrath of Abdullah’s family. Though Abdullah himself had been killed by gunmen in 1999, his sons, Maulanas Aziz and Ghazi, killed yesterday during the attack on the Red Mosque, assumed his jihadi mantle – this time in opposition to the regime. They issued fatwas banning Muslim funeral rites for Pakistani soldiers killed in action against the Taleban and endorsed calls for Musharraf to be killed.
The response to these naked challenges to Musharraf’s authority was muted, if not indulgent. Early this year when Red Mosque students seized control of a children’s library in protest against the planned demolition of illegally constructed mosques in the capital, Musharraf reacted by laughing off what he described as the antics of “kids”. Not even a sustained campaign by extremists to kidnap policemen, raid homes and ransack commercial properties, in an effort to “cleanse” the capital of “vice dens”, could stir the Government to action. It justified its restraint saying it feared suicide attacks.
The tipping point came with the abduction in June of seven Chinese workers accused by the militants of running a brothel. This was followed by the killing of three more Chinese nationals by Islamist militants in Peshawar, in the North West Frontier Province, two days before the mosque was finally stormed.
The attacks triggered an unusually angry response from China, an influential investor in Pakistan. The United States also cautioned Musharraf against any deal involving safe passage for the militants – a sticking point that finally led to the collapse of the negotiations and the recourse to force.
The question now is whether Musharraf’s strategy will pay off. He is heir to a well-established legacy of close cooperation between Islamist groups and a military that has ruled the country for more than half its history. Even if, in time, the Islamists are defeated, they are unlikely to go down without a fight. The cost to Musharraf could be incalculable.
Farzana Shaikh is an associate Fellow at Chatham House
Win a luxury weekend to Newcastle and its neighbour Gateshead, find out more here
Risk, resilience and embracing new technology
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Discover the power of collective thinking. Submit a solution and be in with a chance to win a Media Hub Home Entertainment System
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Make the most of the summer and enter our fabulous photographic competition, you could win a £5000 holiday
Corsica is an island of beauty and contrast, an ideal holiday destination
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
The clever way to lease a new car is with Car leasing made simple™
2009
per month on 36-month
Personal Contract Hire (PCH)
2008
42850
Car Insurance
£24,250 - £30,346
MI5
London
£60,000
The Environment Agency
Bristol
Up to £90K
Boots
Midlands
OTE £85k
Credit Protection Association
Nationwide Opportunities
Completely London
Luxury Condo's in Manhattan with NYC views
The best new homes in Wimbledon?
Nationwide
Fabulous Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers Including Virgin Atlantic Flights Prices Start From Only £699pp!
Last Minute Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers. Med From £499pp, Caribbean From £699pp!
5 star quality at a 3 star price.
8 fabulous Canadian cities ...you won’t find cheaper
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
There is only one way for Pakistan to survive.......and that is to destroy this mullah culture that is poisoning our country. These mullahs are not followers of God, they are nothing but power-mad individuls who will stop at nothing to gain their own POLITICAL ends. Be they deobandi or barelvi or shia or sunni or whatever, they are a danger to humanity. Get rid of them.
Anjum Hameed, Dubai, UAE
People seem to ignore history easily. To fight the Soviets all extremism was acceptable even if neighbouring countries cried foul. Till reality struck home........New York, London et. al. Need to learn that extremism needs to be uprooted before they germinate from a seed!
Shyamal Ray, Toronto, Canada
What is happening in pakistan is a lesson which i dont know when countries who create and promote terror will learn. it is terror which they shield that comes to bite them.usa in afganistan, india in punjab and now pakistan.
wik, notts, uk
I think Miss Farzana Shaikh got it wrong. People of Pakistan love Musharraf. When he led the coup against corrupt leader like Nawaz Sharif, the public was cheering his take over. He has managed to control the economy, have Pakistan debt forgiven, and bring some sort of stability to Pakistan. Yes, many people would like to see him distance himself from US and its fight in Afghanistan, but the people can tolerate this cooperation. After all, all Pakistanis know that Al Qaeda and their protectors, the Taliban, are not welcome in Pakistan. Paksitani public trusts the army to keep control of countries nuclear weapons. They dread these bombs falling into hands of extremists or incompitent rulers like Bhutto or Sharif. Mushraaf has kept Pakistan and its allies safe from fanatics. Polls show over two-thirds of Paksitanis back Musharraf's policies.
Z Hussain, Rochdale, UK
The cost of inaction, of letting the clerics gain more and more power will also be incalculable, not just for Musharraf but for the whole of Pakistan. What you end up with is Iran. Do you really want to see the clerics in charge?
Susan, Raleigh, USA
Pretty flawed anlysis given that 9 out 10 people on the street support Musharraf's move againt the Ghazi brothers. Yes, Pakistanis on the whole are privately relgious but not dogmatic. A Jehadist fringe supported by the ISI does exist. But the Government can easily turn off the tap to financial inducements if it is threatend. Your impression that the state is fragile and can crumble easily is advocated by analysts, especially of the Indian school, since 1947. Bangladesh was an aberration because of civil war caused by poor judgement and bad policy. As a Bangladeshi I can see you immediately draw a parrallel to an earlier crisis. It is not the same situation.
billoo bhai, London, UK
First class. Let us hear more from Ms Farzana Shaikh. So good to read someone who really knows the beast. So different from the shallow punditry of those on the Left - and the not-so Left.
Donald Last , Worthing, UK
I think you have the wrong end of the fish rod.
Mr. Mushraf has election round the bend. To keep all eyes peeled on the Red Mosque is a good vision for his coming back. Please do not underestimate Pakistan Player Mr. Musharaf.
Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD, Dar-Es-Salaam, Tanzania
In my opinion, in light of the observations made in the article, the only option left is outright military action and repression. This may be abhorrant to sensitive minds, but these minds seem altogether too sensitive to form a reasonable conception of the enemy suddenly facing a striking number of nations - if, that is, they can contemplate it at all. Neither indifference, nor placation, nor bribery, nor limited police action have worked - not even outright concessions of large swaths of territory has worked. And in every victory, the Islamists show they are the equals of history's most horrible barbarisms. This is fascism, arising in the Islamic countries, with its unique twists, as each iteration of fascism displays. Wake up.
Daniel, Cleveland, OH
And some of us worry about global warming - it might get a lot hotter soon.
tony, birmingham, uk
By 'demise', I take it you mean moving to Switzerland to oversee his bank account?
Derek S, Dundee,
"Pakistanâs worst crisis for 36 years?"
is it worse than than having the soviet superpower destabilising Pakistan in the 80's?
or worse than the situation Pakistan was in a week after 9/11?
put the issue in context, its nowhere near as serious as previous issues. the mosque will be cleared and in a month most o us will have forgotten about it.
akram, London,
CAN an Islamic nation produce a liberal pluralistic state? The jury is still out. One feels sorry for Egypt, Algeria etc which are seeking to do this, but constantly fighting off the Sharia merchants who want the full-on Islamic state to complete their Koranic way of life. Turkey only seems to hang on to its 'secular' state, ie non clerical rule, by its army.
This is the main issue in world politics at the moment, and the problem is worsening not improving. Best of luck to Musharraf.
Ibnez, Dalston, UK
David, was that sarcasm? The "neo-con" plot line is a form of narcissism indulged in by the ignorant. Read, for example, VS Naipaul's "Among the Believers," and you will see clearly that the Islamism Musharraf faces is autochthonous, that these populations have been so for time out of mind (note, for example, that neither the British nor the Afghan chiefs could coax the Islamic fanaticism out of these tribes - cf. The Great Game). The current campaign, waged by all reasonable governments, is to subdue the Islamist threat that, while by itself technically rudimentary and parasitic, is extraordinarily attractive to millions of minds who have almost no experience with any modern, relatively liberal curriculum or political structure. The purpose is to bring them into the modern world in some sort of relationship of their choosing - note the integration of such diverse countries India, China, Russia, Indonesia and Japan, among others. THAT is the extent of the "plot."
Daniel, Cleveland, OH
No government can permit these self-appointed, 7th-century, witch doctors to preach the religious subversion of civil authority.
It's about time the Pakistani Government found a little resolve.
And the same goes for the British and European Governments too.
The Red Mosque treatment needs to put into general practice.
No civil authority worth its salt will permit a Red Mosque in its midst.
Michael Grable, SILVER SPRING, USA/MD
The Massacre at the Red Mosque was foretold by Edgar Allen Poe last century, in the "Mosque of the Red Death".
lee, reston, usa
It ill behoves experts to, criticise, decry,and belittle, honest attempts to grapple with almost intractable problems such as those in Pakistan.
Perhaps if Chatham House and its kind made practical (and personal) contributions, rather than catcalls from the side lines.
I remember when the Berlin Wall came down (I was there when it was first put up). Not one of the "Expert Institutions" had forecast, or even hinted at its rapid demise.
What is it they say about "When you are up to your a... in alligators ?"
Peter Bolt, Redditch, UK
Just as well the War on Terror is no more, or a bumper sticker, or a Neo-con plot, otherwise there would be severe problems with Nuclear Islamists.
David Williamson, Tucson, USA/AZ
Musharraf should be supported in this. There is no place for theocracy in the modern world. There can only be one legitimate government in a country and Musharraf has to make sure it's his.
Ian, Bristol,